TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RTSplayer:


There is no "control sample" in this "experiment" called "Earth".


Um, no, you're right, there isn't.

Guess we should just stop observing things that happen on earth and look for all the world, via the laws of physics and via measurable chemistry that is based on physics, then, since we don't have another whole earth to keep all unaffected and stuff. Right?

Look, there are things here -- it's almost like you're working off of a set of scientific ideals that we all learn when we're in 8th grade, but then the picture gets all crazy, and we learn math in more dimensions than we can actually think in, and we learn about observational studies, and metadata, and...

There are things here where, in order for it to _not_ be true, if you trace it back to the roots of the argument, you have to figure that 1 + 1 is 1.

I'm actually not exaggerating, with some things, where they can be math based. It comes all the way back, sometimes, to n does not equal n+1.

As a _real_ skeptical science type, I can't say for sure that there is no possibility, in any way, that 1+1 does, in fact, still equal 1. But, I mean, at some point, some of that is an awful lot like first year philosophy students having too much beer and trying to argue endlessly about how nobody can prove that anything exists at all, really.

True. Pointless.

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Really storming here SE of Raleigh...



Took this picture before the real stuff came:

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Quoting MechEngMet:



Newton presented the LAWS of physics and motion centuries ago. The LAWs of motion are well known. I see no reason to risk children on the highway to test an established LAW of physics. Why would we propose risking civilization on a theory?


All of science is based on theories, with some having more evidence than others supporting them.

You don't seem to have any problems flicking a switch to turn on a light or riding in plane. Electricity and aerodynamics are both based on theories. Worse, modern day jets are designed based on MODELS. Oh the horror.

You also don't seem to have an issue with weather prediction and analysis, also based on theories. Or satellite data collection, also based on theories. Or any man made chemical compositions, or the high precision lithography used to make that CPU your computer is using or any other marvels of the modern world, all of which are based on theories and models.

As far as green house theory goes, it's been around for close to 200 years, originally proposed by Fourier in 1824. This isn't something new.
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993. FOREX
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Can you explain your reasoning? In fact The LLC has tightened up as it has emerged, no sign of dissipation...


Do you see a slight NNW movement in the last few frames??
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00z Best Track.

AL, 02, 2013061900, , BEST, 0, 188N, 924W, 25, 1007, TD
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't even think the circulation will persist for that long...

Can you explain your reasoning? In fact The LLC has tightened up as it has emerged, no sign of dissipation...
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Quoting Skyepony:
02L~ The pressure according to Dvorak ↓ .8mb in the last half hour. Now 1013.2mb. Raw T went from 1.0 to 2.8..


Measured pressure a little lower....






Link
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Quoting Birthmark:

I'm sorry, but that doesn't cut it on this one. You claimed, ""Natural forces only" curve is based on a fallacy, since modern instruments didn't exist to make those measurements before the man-made portion of CO2 was added.

A laboratory experiment in a jar or sealed box is not sufficient model, because that is a partially closed system, and glass or plastic are insulators, AND trap infrared. The Earth is an open system."
The last sentence is correct, of course.

The assertion that natural forces can't be discerned needs support. Likewise with the assertion or implication that infrared testing is inadequate.


The claim that thermometers are necessary to derive temperature (particularly climate) needs support. Your declaration is insufficient.




It is circular reasoning because there were no thermometers in the pre-industrial era to take objective, independent temperatures. The proxy data is based on certain assumptions about the range of organisms relationship to temperature, which doesn't properly examine changes in currents changing the location of deposition.


The graph proposes a "natural causes curve" where there actually is no "natural causes" data set, and cannot be because there is only one system. There is no "control sample" in this "experiment" called "Earth".

It's actually a fraudulent product.
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987. wpb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is departing for Tropical Depression Two at 9:30 am CDT tomorrow morning. We'll get an idea of its intensity.
if needed
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Reply to #971

Yes I notice that as well a weaker Low would continue to head WNW over land and completely dissipate. However the LLC tightening and head for the BOC and where the convection is. I would say it will get nudge back to the WNW by morning though.
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Quoting FLwolverine:
Shades of Watergate!


yes, but I'm talking about proxy data.


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Due to its recent tightening circulation, thunderstorm development to the east of the COC, and the topography of the Bay of Campeche, I don't see anything hindering this storm from becoming TS Barry in the next 24-36 hours.

(click to enlarge)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is my own interval. Didn't think an air temperature anomaly of <2 degrees was really significant.


It is when averaged over several weeks.
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#971

"Please bare with me"

Hmmmmmm....
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC019-129-190100-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0036.130619T0010Z-130619T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUPPLY...OR
13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHALLOTTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MILL CREEK...
BISHOP...
LELAND...
SILVER LAKE...
MASONBORO...
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MILES AN
HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3417 7782 3396 7792 3397 7831 3416 7833
3432 7778 3429 7776 3429 7771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 259DEG 41KT 3410 7817

$$

WEISS


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980. Skyepony (Mod)
02L~ The pressure according to Dvorak ↓ .8mb in the last half hour. Now 1013.2mb. Raw T went from 1.0 to 2.8..
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

That'll be great to have, warranting that TD TWO gets it's act together through the night and reorganizes.


I don't even think the circulation will persist for that long...
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02L RGB Loop

click loop for image

These will be last few frames before the RGB channel switch to Night IR Mode

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is departing for Tropical Depression Two at 9:30 am CDT tomorrow morning. We'll get an idea of its intensity.


Recon heading kinda early. I'm very pleased that they kept this as a cyclone although there was a time when this was an open Low. It has tightening up considerably since. Which is probably why Recon is going out so early, we could see this spin a bit in the BOC
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is departing for Tropical Depression Two at 9:30 am CDT tomorrow morning. We'll get an idea of its intensity.

That'll be great to have, warranting that TD TWO gets it's act together through the night and reorganizes.
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Quoting Levi32:


You can't forget to set your own contour intervals when using ESRL for detailed analysis....it often sets them jumbo size based on the data extrema, which can lead to a bunch of data of sizable magnitude getting hidden as "neutral" when it is in fact not. The arctic is cold right now, especially compared to recent years. This year has been different all around.


That is my own interval. Didn't think an air temperature anomaly of <2 degrees was really significant.
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Quoting Patrap:
02L Low Sun angle vis Loop


Click image for Loop





This wants to be Barry so bad and I'm rooting for it.Looks nice already.
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Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:34 PM CST on December 16, 2008


It seems like there have been an unusual number of early and late season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic in recent years. In 2008, we had four named storms in July, and the second most powerful November hurricane on record. Both 2007 and 2005 had rare December storms, and 2003 featured Tropical Storm Anna, the first April tropical storm ever recorded. This year, Hurricane Tomas made 2010 the fourth straight year with a November hurricane, something that has never occurred in the Atlantic since accurate records began in 1851.

Is hurricane season getting longer? Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

I remember reading this back when he posted it. Good read.
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Quoting Skyepony:
02L~ I half expect this to end up being a TS & I'm giving it an outside chance of becoming a hurricane.br id="mf4664">br id="mf4665">According to Dvorak 02L just made it back over water.. 1014mb T#=1.0, scene is shear, located 18.41N 92.26W. br id="mf4666">br id="mf4667">That wave at Windward Islands looks gamely.


Models according to the recent NWS Miami discussion have it approaching South Florida on Saturday and raising the PWS to at least 2 inches. Don't know how much shear will be over it, and if it has any chance of developing but a tropical wave that nice this early is a bad bad sign, specially with the current setup. I'm not saying doom and gloom, but someone on a landmass, not just the CONUS, or the Carribean will get it this year.



Quoting CosmicEvents:
TD2 is moving right over Laguna de Trminos, the biggest lagoon in that part of the world. It'll add 2 hours to it's time over water, and I expect we'll see a TS tomorrow morning, possibly tonite we'll have a TS at 11.


I'm not sure if you guys see it as well, but in the beginning of the loop patrap and civicane posted, it looked like there was a very weak circulation intitally drifting wnw, and then it tightened and it took a jog NNW, making a beeline for the gulf with blow ups of convection, anyone else see that pronounced NNW jog?

Please bare with me if there are any spelling issues as I am on my I-Phone and autocorrect may change my words without me noticing.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
TD2 is moving right over Laguna de Términos, the biggest lagoon in that part of the world. It'll add 2 hours to it's time over water, and I expect we'll see a TS tomorrow morning, possibly tonite we'll have a TS at 11.


I wonder if the extra time over water - or rather less time over land - will change forecast tracks any. That's two hours of strengthening before DMAX 02 otherwise wouldn't have had.
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Recon is departing for Tropical Depression Two at 9:30 am CDT tomorrow morning. We'll get an idea of its intensity.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33913
Quoting zampaz:

It occurs to me that science types are so detail oriented that we argue over trivial nuances with each other when we need to present a united front against an organized and well funded campaign misinformation.
We need to communicate the urgency of action because we have to overcome a great deal of "inertia" in congress. (Ref Newtons First Law (which isn't really a dogmatic Law)).
Scientists are used to carefully choosing adjectives.




This is hugely true.

Science -- it always, always, always comes with caveats. There is always fine print. And we're very used to only saying things that are absolutely accurate, the best we can. Which means lots of hedging type language about the details, especially, and lots of focusing on how much we _don't_ know.

Because it's maybe even more important, to good science, to understand what you don't know, than it is to understand what you do.

The dilemma is: that sounds to much of the public like it's the same thing as being totally unsure of all sorts of things that we actually do know.

The other dilemma is this: when we simplify in order to communicate more effectively, it opens the door for various people to then pull out the places where that's not _entirely_ correct, which we knew when we said it, and use that to make it seem like we're discredited. When we try to get around that by expressing clearly that things are simplified, people give simplified retorts, and the validity of each simplified argument begins to seem equivalently suspect to layfolks.

But the details require so *$)(#@ much background, usually, that it's not like you can always give people who don't have it a brief summary that makes sense and doesn't give false impressions. Thus: wild misinterpretations of everything from the Uncertainty Principle (I suppose the name was asking for it) to natural selection (um, it's weird) to climate change (no, it doesn't negate anything, that this winter was cold; in fact, that aligns perfectly with what we should expect.) Easy for those who want to muddy it to do so. Hard to explain why they're wrong without trying to give every random guy-at-the-bar a mini lesson in quantum mechanics (!) or genetics or the finer points of fluid dynamics.

To some degree, if you understand something well, you should be able to explain the basic ideas and major upshots in it to a smart child. But that's with a lot of simplifying. That's ok when you don't have a bunch of self-interested actors ready to discredit you for "getting it wrong." But we do.

So I don't entirely know the answers there. I use the education I have -- which goes well beyond bio conservation, I was one of those students who wasn't sure what I wanted to do for ages, so I have a huge breadth of stuff to work from, none at incredible depth but all with the ability to sort the BS from the probably pretty solid -- and I try to look at everything I can, and give people my most honest assessments, and prepare myself to try to explain simplified versions, and prepare myself to explain details and complexities, where I know them fairly well, and when people seem interested in the complicated stuff.

Our honest, laypeople upshot assessments need voice, even while we struggle over how to communicate the finer detail accurately. People are confused. They are being intentionally misled. So we have to step up to that, even if it means making the occasional mistake, or losing some of the beautiful complexity that makes it more accurate.

My honest, upshot assessment is that we need to act very strongly, now, or we risk a scale of human pain for the young children alive, now, that most of us in the "first world" can only relate to through bad disaster fiction.
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Sheesh, recent aint 5 years ago, eh Pat.
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TD2 is moving right over Laguna de Términos, the biggest lagoon in that part of the world. It'll add 2 hours to it's time over water, and I expect we'll see a TS tomorrow morning, possibly tonite we'll have a TS at 11.
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965. Skyepony (Mod)
02L~ I half expect this to end up being a TS & I'm giving it an outside chance of becoming a hurricane.

According to Dvorak 02L just made it back over water.. 1014mb T#=1.0, scene is shear, located 18.41N 92.26W.

That wave at Windward Islands looks gamely.
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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:34 PM CST on December 16, 2008


It seems like there have been an unusual number of early and late season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic in recent years. In 2008, we had four named storms in July, and the second most powerful November hurricane on record. Both 2007 and 2005 had rare December storms, and 2003 featured Tropical Storm Anna, the first April tropical storm ever recorded. This year, Hurricane Tomas made 2010 the fourth straight year with a November hurricane, something that has never occurred in the Atlantic since accurate records began in 1851.

Is hurricane season getting longer? Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Arctic air temperatures have been nothing more nor nothing less than normal so far this month.



You can't forget to set your own contour intervals when using ESRL for detailed analysis....it often sets them jumbo size based on the data extrema, which can lead to a bunch of data of sizable magnitude getting hidden as "neutral" when it is in fact not. The arctic is cold right now, especially compared to recent years. This year has been different all around.

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A recent study Dr. Masters posted awhile Back from U of Wisconsin I believe shows How the Atlantic Hurricane Season is starting earlier and lasting Longer.

Ill try a lil search.


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02L Low Sun angle vis Loop


Click image for Loop





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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yesterday I thought TD2 would be dead by now. Looks like it will be a good distance offshore.

It just barely made it.
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It's only June 18 and look what we have had already......


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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I'm not lurking really. I just didn't have anything intelligent to say so I stayed quiet. All in all not a bad practice.

Got that right. Might try that out later tonight, at this rate.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Of coarse Gro comments right before I post my comment... Great timing you got there Gro. :)


Sorry Big D. But Doc Masters does the same to me. I make these brilliant posts and forecasts and he interrupts and my post is lost on the previous page.
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Quoting FLwolverine:
Shades of Watergate!


I need to contemplate for 18 1/2 minutes on my answer.
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943. Grothar 6:43 PM CDT on June 18, 2013 4



Oh, I'm not lurking really. I just didn't have anything intelligent to say so I stayed quiet. All in all not a bad practice.



Good to see a Good Guy up and around.

Welcome to your Meteorology Embracing Family Gro.



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Yesterday I thought TD2 would be dead by now. Looks like it will be a good distance offshore.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


That's not a double negative.

A double negative is when you make a statement involving two negatives which "cancel" one another, causing the statement to mean the opposite of what is intended.


That choice of words seems more poor when you isolate it outside the context of the post to which I was responding.

I guess what I was trying to say would be more easily portrayed with an illustration.

Suppose we have an allegation of a statement on audio recording, but suppose said recording has been deleted.

One cannot prove that anything was actually recorded, since it was deleted.

However, being deleted neither proves nor disproves the prior existence of anything at all on the audio, or what the thing might have been.

To restate, an audio tape recording no event does not prove the event didn't take place. A deletion neither proves nor disproves the existence or nature of an event which may or may not have happened.
Shades of Watergate!
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
For those of you who are interested, Stu Ostro posted an image from the Denver Airport radar of the tornado earlier. I think it it pretty cool.



It oddly has a resemblance of a miniature Hurricane on radar.
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I'm not lurking really. I just didn't have anything intelligent to say so I stayed quiet. All in all not a bad practice.


Sling-shot!
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I'm not lurking really. I just didn't have anything intelligent to say so I stayed quiet. All in all not a bad practice.
ya but sometimes people get tried of not saying or doing anything
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Will a recording of the KCNR call-in show be made available? Is s recording available now--or a transcript?
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Quoting gator23:
Makes sense. You don't need evidence to prove god,
1)Double negative
2)You are right Columbus didnt have to sail around the earth to prove it wasnt flat. Oh wait...


That's not a double negative.

A double negative is when you make a statement involving two negatives which "cancel" one another, causing the statement to mean the opposite of what is intended.


That choice of words seems more poor when you isolate it outside the context of the post to which I was responding.

I guess what I was trying to say would be more easily portrayed with an illustration.

Suppose we have an allegation of a statement on audio recording, but suppose said recording has been deleted.

One cannot prove that anything was actually recorded, since it was deleted.

However, being deleted neither proves nor disproves the prior existence of anything at all on the audio, or what the thing might have been.

To restate, an audio tape recording no event does not prove the event didn't take place. A deletion neither proves nor disproves the existence or nature of an event which may or may not have happened.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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