TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It'll be interesting to see if the National Hurricane Center discontinues advisories or not. Obviously if one doesn't have a closed low-level circulation it doesn't officially meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone. However, the NHC has...and should in this case as well...continued advisories under the mindset that it would re-intensify within 24 hours.

It would be useless to discontinue them this afternoon just to start them again tomorrow afternoon.


Case in point: Ernesto last year basically opened up into a wave, but 24-36 hours later, it was making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the NHC issues Tropical Storm Watches up for the coast of eastern Mexico shortly.

Landfall, I would see is probably give or take 10 miles North or South of Veracruz.
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Quoting MechEngMet:




Yes, I'm a bit tired of it too... Thanks for posting.


From the conference Masters was at last week, that was one of the issues the scientists addressed. They said they need to counter negative messages with positive ones...
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Quoting daddyjames:


Yea, but Dr. M's title for that section

"Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country"

might be considered unfair, and certainly a little inflammatory - correct?


If it walks like a duck?
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Quoting CaribBoy:
High clouds and SAL ..... and a batch of showers passing JUST north of us



Yeah definitely got that hazy, milky look to it. I see what you mean by the SAL now, hopefully things improve for you guys over there.
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The feeder bands are getting stronger while the main circulation seems to be running out of options and petering out; 02L is spending too much time over land, but the added moisture in the outer bands could keep it alive and give it some juice for when the COC manages to complete its trek across. At least that is what it looks like.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Now discussing with Fitzpatrick about effects on water resources and agricultural practices/adaptation.

And back to wildfires - and the extension of the burning season - as the climate evolves.
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GFS at 180 hours.............
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i think TD 2 has this DISSIPATED
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VISIBLE LOOPS shows fast trades! If we get thunderstorms later, then the wind will become very gusty.

PR area visible loop
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
My grandfather has a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and worked at NASA for 48 years before "retiring" to do part-time consulting work for Boeing. He has hundreds of gigabytes of data on climate change that he has acquired from NASA, the EPA, IPCC, Al Gore, etc. He agrees that climate change exists, but he is tired of hearing about all of the doom and gloom predictions (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes are stronger). Not everyone who is skeptical about climate change is ignorant. Maybe we are just tired of all of the misinformation and falsified data.




Yes, I'm a bit tired of it too... Thanks for posting.
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probably already widely known but

NASA's 2013 HS3 Hurricane Mission to Delve Into Saharan Dust

NASA's 2013 Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel or HS3 mission will investigate whether Saharan dust and its associated warm and dry air, known as the Saharan Air Layer or SAL, favors or suppresses the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. The effects of Saharan dust on tropical cyclones is a controversial area of science. During the 2012 campaign, NASA's Global Hawk unmanned aircraft gathered valuable data on the dust layer that swirled around Tropical Storm Nadine for several days.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting daddyjames:
Hosts are asked about Carbon emissions, and trying to cap it.

Fitzpatrick quite rightly points out that in developed nations we cannot continue to support the current standard of living, while continuing to lift the standard of living in developing nations, under the current method for energy production.

Addressing the fact that alternative energy should be developed to meet the challenges. Also, a very good analogy of resistance to change in technology using arguments of "too expensive" and not useful.



The host isn't at all what I expected...
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I didn't take it at all the way you did, though reading it again, I do see how it's grammatically a fairly ambiguous statement.

I very sincerely doubt that Dr. Masters thinks of NorCal as "deep red."


Yea, but Dr. M's title for that section

"Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country"

might be considered unfair, and certainly a little inflammatory - correct?
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You can watch the evolution of the Texas Ridging and periphery disturbances for the past five days courtesy of the Penn State EWall
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
My grandfather has a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and worked at NASA for 48 years before "retiring" to do part-time consulting work for Boeing. He has hundreds of gigabytes of data on climate change that he has acquired from NASA, the EPA, IPCC, Al Gore, etc. He agrees that climate change exists, but he is tired of hearing about all of the doom and gloom predictions (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes are stronger). Not everyone who is skeptical about climate change is ignorant. Maybe we are just tired of all of the misinformation and falsified data.
If you and/or your grandfather would be so kind as to present evidence of misinformation and/or falsified data, I'd be very interested in seeing it. It's easy to toss out such accusations, but I've yet to see anyone actually produce the evidence.

FWIW, the only reason predictions sound like "doom and gloom" is because they really are just that.
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Quoting ricderr:
Nea, would you say the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Humbolt are or are not in northern California?


Sar, you missed the part, heart of "RED" northern california.......all those as you mentioned...are northern california...as well would be san francisco alameda county and those is that same proximity.....the difference is though they are not red....the statement is geographically correct.....but even if not....would it change the topic of discussion?

Of course not, but I'm not the one that started off the conversation with "the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California" either. How exactly does the color of a part of a state affect the topic? Does "deep red" mean "kncuckle dragging, slobering morons" while "deep blue" means "incredibly smart, literate people"? Seems like sterotyping to me.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13240
ghurricane......would you classify that the misinformation is coming from the scientists themselves...or more from groups manipulating data to serve their purposes and media sensationalizing the data for ratings?
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Hosts are asked about Carbon emissions, and trying to cap it.

Fitzpatrick quite rightly points out that in developed nations we cannot continue to support the current standard of living, while continuing to lift the standard of living in developing nations, under the current method for energy production.

Addressing the fact that alternative energy should be developed to meet the challenges. Also, a very good analogy of resistance to change in technology using arguments of "too expensive" and not useful.

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twas 56 this am at my house in Warner Springs.....good sleeping weather!
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High clouds and SAL ..... and a batch of showers passing JUST north of us



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Morning Joe, Greetings from the Left Coast,



Good morning to you Pedley! Great weather we are having! was 82 yesterday and very low like 20-30 humidity....awesome...June can be very hot away from the coast...I hear it may warm up next week. Have a great day bud!
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My grandfather has a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and worked at NASA for 48 years before "retiring" to do part-time consulting work for Boeing. He has hundreds of gigabytes of data on climate change that he has acquired from NASA, the EPA, IPCC, Al Gore, etc. He agrees that climate change exists, but he is tired of hearing about all of the doom and gloom predictions (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes are stronger). Not everyone who is skeptical about climate change is ignorant. Maybe we are just tired of all of the misinformation and falsified data.
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Quoting sar2401:

That's not what Dr. Masters posted. Northern California is not all "deep red". Since I lived in the "deep blue" part of northern California, it's kind of an important distinction. The Central Valley, in general, is red. The coastal areas, north, central, and north, are blue. California is literally two different states politically.


I didn't take it at all the way you did, though reading it again, I do see how it's grammatically a fairly ambiguous statement.

I very sincerely doubt that Dr. Masters thinks of NorCal as "deep red." Not many people are unaware of the liberal-ness of SF, Marin, Humboldt, etc etc etc.

The central valley is a whole 'nuther can of worms, though it's actually really complicated. Largely, it's poor and rural, and neither "side" does very well addressing the problems of rural poverty, so that leaves nothing but social issues and identities for everybody to bicker over. It's almost like two different planets, sometimes. Or living around a bunch of warring clans with complex allegiances.

But with the exception of the few and proud, usually high volume, hardcore denialist types, tons of people in conservative parts of california are very deeply concerned about climate change at this point, too -- water is _everything_ here, and fears around it are huge.

There are also plenty who believe that it's happening and worry some, but have their brains short-circuit or something when they think they might be identified with "those hippie enviroloonies" or whatever derogatory thing they prefer to use. Those folks are actually reachable on practical levels; it's less that they don't believe it's a problem, and more that they have developed a longstanding and sometimes bizarre feud with anybody they think might "take their water for the Delta Smelt," or "force regulations down their throats," etc.

Of course, sometimes that leads to people simply refusing to recognize climate change because they find it more important to hate hippies than to look at reality. But that's crumbling a lot, too, since it's increasingly the fishing folks and the hunters and maybe most especially the "mountain men" and the farmers in the Delta starting to really notice changes and get concerned.

The social divisions are really deep and monstrously complicated. They're actually changing really quickly here, though it's inconsistent and very messy.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting hydrus:
Yes. South seas is still there ( I have not been there since 2001 ). The Damage on Captiva and North Captiva was very bad. The north island has a new inlet called Charleys Cut.
No $*!*!!!.....wow...little charlie ans his 5-10 mile eyewall?
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One thing to note is much of central, east and northern Texas has yet to see a 100 degree day so far this year. Last year we were already in the 90's in March and April. Just amazes me how the pattern flipped. We're definitely not out of the woods during the heart of hurricane season, unlike the past 4 years.


come to el paso......we're on track to once again exceed our june average of 15 days at or above 100 degrees
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Folks are free to parse Dr. Masters's words any way they wish, but there's no doubt that there is 1) a deep red part of northern California, and 2) Redding is the politcally conservative heart of that part.

Now that that's straight: the KCNR call-in show is obviously interesting from a climate change point of view, but it's also interesting as a psychological study into denialism and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories. There have so far been more nonsense calls about chemtrails than there have been about, say, CO2, which one supposes says a lot about KCNR's Fox-listening audience. If nothing else, it tells us that changing the station once in awhile in order to listen to things outside our comfy bubbles is probably a good and healthy thing.


So NEa, I take it you'll be tuning into FOX news for a few days then, right??

Yes Nea, as you previously posted, Ignorance is rampant. ...and I've caught you once again advising others to do what you yourself are not willing to do. Open your mind to alternate possibilities. Just try it once; as you are advising others to do so.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Certainly they are. But those counties aren't in question Dr. Masters was referring to Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, Glenn, Plumas, and Butte, counties that comprise conservative northern California. And Redding is definitely the "deep red" heart of that area. Here's a map:

Ca

Northern California is Blue along the coasts only; the rest is definitely politically conservative.


Neo is correct The coast( where most people live) is very blue and the interior central to northern Calif is very red.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Thunder and rain... Best sounds when they're together


I want to hear them so badly!!!
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Caller:

Asking a question regarding clear-cutting forests and any relationship with global warming.

Sounds like a personal agenda (on the caller's) against deforestation/timber companies.

I'm all for conservation - but dislike extremes on both sides of the argument.
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My take on this hurricane season is there will less storms forming than last year 19. I'm Calling for 15-17 named storms. Last year we had a lot of mid latitude systems as there were warmer than normal sst in the mid latitudes.

However this year the concentration of warm sst is in the MDR. African monsoon is active this year as we probably had a named system in the East Atlantic earlier this month. But we shall see. In the short term the MJO pulse is looking rather strong as it comes into the Atlantic by the last week of June into early July we could see 2 more systems out of this (in addition to 02L if it becomes Barry) this will also reduce the amount of SAL air over the Altantic.
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Melanie Fitzpatrick on hand.

Talking about global impacts on surface temperatures on a global scale, both land and sea.
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It seems to have happened over my lifetime San Diego has a majority Democratic City Council and The Mayor is a Democrat.....I cannot remember that happening in my lifetime and I have lived in Southern California since 1962, only taking a 8 year vacation to Florida from '85-'93. Only costal county thats red that i know of is still Orange County, home of Disneyland.
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Wow, deteriorated as quickly as it formed. Even though it barely still has an LLC, convection looks terrible.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
It's interesting to note that the Texas Death Ridge hasn't exerted the same influence on our weather thus far this summer as it has in the past few years, perhaps since 2007. While the semi-permanent feature of summer still exists, it is much weaker. Right now, a shortwave is riding over the ridge and digging into it, which resulted in storms across NCTX overnight. Late last week, a similar disturbance snuck up the western periphery of the ridge and caused some moderate flood issues in the upper Rio Grande plains. This is also following a system that caused flooding throughout San Antonio late last month. The point is that systems are tending to slip through cracks in the ridging, which is leading to a much more bearable summer but could also have future repercussions at hurricane season gets active.


One thing to note is much of central, east and northern Texas has yet to see a 100 degree day so far this year. Last year we were already in the 90's in March and April. Just amazes me how the pattern flipped. We're definitely not out of the woods during the heart of hurricane season, unlike the past 4 years.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1109
Quoting 1900hurricane:
It's interesting to note that the Texas Death Ridge hasn't exerted the same influence on our weather thus far this summer as it has in the past few years, perhaps since 2007. While the semi-permanent feature of summer still exists, it is much weaker. Right now, a shortwave is riding over the ridge and digging into it, which resulted in storms across NCTX overnight. Late last week, a similar disturbance snuck up the western periphery of the ridge and caused some moderate flood issues in the upper Rio Grande plains. This is also following a system that caused flooding throughout San Antonio late last month. The point is that systems are tending to slip through cracks in the ridging, which is leading to a much more bearable summer but could also have future repercussions at hurricane season gets active.



That's exactly what I was discussing with one of the NWS Norman forecasters yesterday. I was questioning him on whether this area saw as many MCSs come through in a NW flow during May and June during the last couple years as we have seen this year, and it certainly seems that the ridge is not as overbearing as it was. Every time I look at the height field in the southeast U.S. it is somewhat depressed, which would be a bad pattern for the rest of the hurricane season. The above-normal soil moisture to the east is only going to support the continuation of this pattern as well.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
It's interesting to note that the Texas Death Ridge hasn't exerted the same influence on our weather thus far this summer as it has in the past few years, perhaps since 2007. While the semi-permanent feature of summer still exists, it is much weaker.


Shh, don't wake it up - I believe last year at this time in OK we were already in the upper 90s/100s.

Last summer was brutal. Given the current longterm forecasts, it should be relatively close to normal temperature-wise.
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Nea, would you say the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Humbolt are or are not in northern California?


Sar, you missed the part, heart of "RED" northern california.......all those as you mentioned...are northern california...as well would be san francisco alameda county and those is that same proximity.....the difference is though they are not red....the statement is geographically correct.....but even if not....would it change the topic of discussion?
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Thunder and rain... Best sounds when they're together
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Next question:

Caller pointing out that predictions on local effects on weather are not necessarily predictable, even though climate change may be.

Unfortunately, this again illustrates a common difficulty regarding climate change - if it does not immediately impact me, well its no problem.

But the caller is generally well informed and asking very relevant questions. A good discussion regarding potential impacts on the local weather.

Now asked what positive steps are being taken to counter climate change: discussion about alternative energy.
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Quoting sar2401:

Nea, would you say the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Humbolt are or are not in northern California?
might have added inland California...the entire coast is pretty dark blue
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It's interesting to note that the Texas Death Ridge hasn't exerted the same influence on our weather thus far this summer as it has in the past few years, perhaps since 2007. While the semi-permanent feature of summer still exists, it is much weaker. Right now, a shortwave is riding over the ridge and digging into it, which resulted in storms across NCTX overnight. Late last week, a similar disturbance snuck up the western periphery of the ridge and caused some moderate flood issues in the upper Rio Grande plains. This is also following a system that caused flooding throughout San Antonio late last month. The point is that systems are tending to slip through cracks in the ridging, which is leading to a much more bearable summer but could also have future repercussions at hurricane season gets active.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
heat coming?


Near 100F in June for me, seems legit.


Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters.
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Hello everyone, it seems the LLC is very ill-define or it has just dissipated. The MLC and the Convection is starting to difting a little NW. We will have to see if this trend continues it should emerge into the BOC by Tonight or early Wednesday.
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Morning Joe, Greetings from the Left Coast,



Goldilocks Weather....
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
What barrier islands hydrus? Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Myers Beach, Marco Island?

hydrus-Grew up on Captiva Island at Twin Palms Marina in the 70,s and 80,s.

Is the Plantation still out on Captiva? How did Captiva do during Hurricane Charley?
Yes. South seas is still there ( I have not been there since 2001 ). The Damage on Captiva and North Captiva was very bad. The north island has a new inlet called Charleys Cut.
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Looking for water or the slow death?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
. . . "the KCNR call-in show is obviously interesting from a climate change point of view, but it's also interesting as a psychological study into denialism and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories. There have so far been more nonsense calls about chemtrails than there have been about, say, CO2, which one supposes says a lot about KCNR's Fox-listening audience. If nothing else, it tells us that changing the station once in awhile in order to listen to things outside our comfy bubbles is probably a good and healthy thing."


Agree with your last statement, but in all honesty, they really have not taken too many calls - and the hosts have been more than fair to their guests, so far. I guess I came in with a bias that perhaps the hosts would be more antagonistic - not necessarily fair on my part.
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How's TD 2 doing?
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What barrier islands hydrus? Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Myers Beach, Marco Island?

hydrus-Grew up on Captiva Island at Twin Palms Marina in the 70,s and 80,s.

Is the Plantation still out on Captiva? How did Captiva do during Hurricane Charley?
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The current guest is Bob Hensen

topics: extreme precipitation/droughts; weather effects on the Pine Bark Beetle contributing to increased deaths of dead trees contributing to increased wildfire intensity.

Interestingly, they are not taking many questions now, although the host had stated that the "phones were hopping" earlier.
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Folks are free to parse Dr. Masters's words any way they wish, but there's no doubt that there is 1) a deep red part of northern California, and 2) Redding is the politcally conservative heart of that part.

Now that that's straight: the KCNR call-in show is obviously interesting from a climate change point of view, but it's also interesting as a psychological study into denialism and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories. There have so far been more nonsense calls about chemtrails than there have been about, say, CO2, which one supposes says a lot about KCNR's Fox-listening audience. If nothing else, it tells us that changing the station once in awhile in order to listen to things outside our comfy bubbles is probably a good and healthy thing.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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