TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Al Gore's claim that global warming/climate change is caused by CO2 is completely false. It's utterly ridiculous.

Yeah, it is ridiculous.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I assume that they gave up on taking calls; wacko conspiracy theories and ideologically deep red drum-thumping really have no place in a scientific dialog...


Neither does name calling and closed mindedness. (See above)
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Quoting mikatnight:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but is it not Mr. Gore who largely got us really talking about Global Warming to begin with? I believe he even won some kind of award...


Al Gore's claim that global warming/climate change is caused by CO2 is completely false. It's utterly ridiculous.
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Quoting MechEngMet:



Do you deny the existence of the 'tooth fairy'? A consensus of 7 yr olds told me the matter was settled.

I do.
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Quoting daddyjames:


The Tea party is an extreme element - even among those who consider themselves "conservative". And using that in the post/title is an unfair characterization of the people who live in that area.

It certainly colored my conception of what the show would be like . . .

And certainly communicated a certain bias of Dr. M (IMO).

This does not lend itself to effectively communicating with audiences resistant to the potential impacts of climate change and ways to mitigate it.


The Tea Party is quite entrenched in Redding actually. Just a quick google search on Redding, Ca and the Tea Party will bring up tons of hits, including some law suits. I don't have exact numbers, but they are a major factor there.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I know this much: more than one peer-reviewed study has shown that regular viewers of Fox News are among the most uninformed and misinformed of all consumers of major US media. I also know from personal experience--I live in a deeply conservative county, one in which Fox is blasting on every TV in every bar, restaurant, and shop in town--that where climate science is concerned, Fox presents a point of view that is overwhelmingly incorrect, and overwhelmingly biased against scientific fact and consensus. Surely you're not suggesting that listening to some Fox hogwash would be a valid way of "balancing" the tens of thousands of words from peer-reviewed science I read every day, are you?



Do you deny the existence of the 'tooth fairy'? A consensus of 7 yr olds told me the matter was settled.
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Quoting mikatnight:
#168 -

Nice pic. Looks like it's just floating...
I have seen it like that many times.. There is a viewpoint off the interstate 5 to the north that looks amazing.. there can be some pretty crazy lenticular cloud formations too since this bad boy is not part of a range..
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I take GW seriously..just not the ones going off the edge about others taking it seriously.Like just calm down we get it you want people to see your view.But going off the edge makes you look like a fool that can't be taken serious.Calling people names isn't going to make them see your point any faster.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Just as equally, progressive preaching about the environment also has no place in science. Any hope for real talk about climate change was sunk as soon as Al Gore jumped into the mix.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but is it not Mr. Gore who largely got us really talking about Global Warming to begin with? I believe he even won some kind of award...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:


From the conference Masters was at last week, that was one of the issues the scientists addressed. They said they need to counter negative messages with positive ones...


hmmm, "Counter negative messages with positive ones". Well that's good in theory, but isn't Nea in a post just above claiming that "all the doom and gloom is exactly that." (I paraphrase) ...and uses that as the 'reason' why he posts such negativity...?

Such contradictions in philosophy and style must be above my simple mind's ability to comprehend.

(sigh)
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I'm not sure I'd say it's unfair to identify Redding with "Tea Party country," though the fuller picture is absolutely a lot more complicated. Your mileage may vary.

Re: "inflammatory" -- eh. I don't think it's possible to avoid political statements anymore in regards to climate change. There is a political party, or at least a large group of people within that political party, who have been putting out great effort to feed climate change denial. So anybody who cares about climate change and wants to see us do anything about it can't really avoid the politics that swirl around it and prevent anything from happening.

Again, your mileage may vary. I just don't honestly see how this issue can be discussed without politics at the core of the conversation at this point, and to the degree that it's going to ruffle feathers, that's sort of an unavoidable thing when a political group is blocking action that a lot of people feel is absolutely needed.

I do wish that people would get to know more of the complexity of these issues in the rural West, because I think that would help the conversation among all the various sets of people who are open to it, but that's a problem even with lots of other Californians. The folks on the coast tend to know almost nothing about the realities in the valley and mountains; I've spent the majority of my life in the valley, and it's no easy feat to grasp it all. So I'm sure not going to expect Dr. Masters to have a terrific grip on a bunch of sociopolitical stuff out here that people who live 100 miles from me don't usually seem to have themselves.

That hope for greater understanding of the complexity is why I posted such a long and rambly comment, though. The Tea Party stuff is part of the problem, and it certainly holds a lot more sway in somewhere like Redding (or Bakersfield, or Yreka, or Galt, or Turlock...) but it's not remotely the whole picture, and it's even honestly really oversimplified to just turn it into "blue" and "red" divisions. That's true everywhere, but it's most especially true here. There are a lot of people in these areas who are traditionally conservative, but who are also concerned and starting to be more open to the conversations we all need to be having.

Getting around those longstanding divisions is hard.



The Tea party is an extreme element - even among those who consider themselves "conservative". And using that in the post/title is an unfair characterization of the people who live in that area.

It certainly colored my conception of what the show would be like . . .

And certainly communicated a certain bias of Dr. M (IMO).

This does not lend itself to effectively communicating with audiences resistant to the potential impacts of climate change and ways to mitigate it.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Just as equally, progressive preaching about the environment also has no place in science. Any hope for real talk about climate change was sunk as soon as Al Gore jumped into the mix.


Nothing more than a cop out. The science speaks for itself and there isn't much to discuss other than what are we going to do about it. To just throw your hands up at the fact Al Gore got involved and just walk away is childish thinking. Also...obligatory "Al Gore is fat" so we can get that out of the way. :)
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Quoting cyclonekid:
(click to enlarge)

I dont see the image
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(click to enlarge)
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Why the coke are we talking about volcanoes and mountains?
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JNTenne -- I actually have found Redding to be a really beautiful place, overall. I only recently wandered at all _in_ Redding, rather than just driving through it like everybody else, and there are some really neat parts of it that nobody seems to recognize.

And the old volcanoes, all of them, Shasta and Lassen and the littler guys, rising all crisp up steeply off of the valley floor -- it's one of my favorite views of CA, to be honest.

The heat... you know. It's brutal. True here in Sacramento, too, and we won't discuss summer in Fresno, I'm too traumatized... ;)
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



I always watch things I don't agree with just to see the other side.

As an independent, I watch MSNBC and Fox, both of which are terrible, but at least it gives you a sense of both points of view and so on.
Politically and ideologically, that's mostly a healthy thing. But where science is concerned, it's easy to fall victim to the siren song of false equivalency. But the truth is, scientific facts are not balanced by countervailing ideological opinions. If Person A tells you water is wet and Person B tells you it's not, only a fool would say, "Gee, they both have great points. Now I'm really confused." ;-)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I assume that they gave up on taking calls; wacko conspiracy theories and ideologically deep red drum-thumping really have no place in a scientific dialog...


Just as equally, progressive preaching about the environment also has no place in science. Any hope for real talk about climate change was sunk as soon as Al Gore jumped into the mix.
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#168 -

Nice pic. Looks like it's just floating...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah it's dead for now.
Too bad we have nobody to barry him.


LOL!
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TX 13,how more hours you think has TD 2 before it emerges into BOC?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I assume that they gave up on taking calls; wacko conspiracy theories and ideologically deep red drum-thumping really have no place in a scientific dialog...


I would not go so far as to say that, but they certainly did not pander to one extreme or the other.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting hydrus:
Yes. South seas is still there ( I have not been there since 2001 ). The Damage on Captiva and North Captiva was very bad. The north island has a new inlet called Charleys Cut.


Much of South Seas was closed for a year after Charley for repairs.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I know this much: more than one peer-reviewed study has shown that regular viewers of Fox News are among the most uninformed and misinformed of all consumers of major US media. I also know from personal experience--I live in a deeply conservative county, one in which Fox is blasting on every TV in every bar, restaurant, and shop in town--that where climate science is concerned, Fox presents a point of view that is overwhelmingly incorrect, and overwhelmingly biased against scientific fact and consensus. Surely you're not suggesting that listening to some Fox hogwash would be a valid way of "balancing" the tens of thousands of words from peer-reviewed science I read every day, are you?



I always watch things I don't agree with just to see the other side.

As an independent, I watch MSNBC and Fox, both of which are terrible, but at least it gives you a sense of both points of view and so on.

Btw I live in a red area and 99% of people would call the conspiracy theories and chemtrail etc things ridiculous.
With global warming, it's more of a person to person variation.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting daddyjames:


Yea, but Dr. M's title for that section

"Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country"

might be considered unfair, and certainly a little inflammatory - correct?


I'm not sure I'd say it's unfair to identify Redding with "Tea Party country," though the fuller picture is absolutely a lot more complicated. Your mileage may vary.

Re: "inflammatory" -- eh. I don't think it's possible to avoid political statements anymore in regards to climate change. There is a political party, or at least a large group of people within that political party, who have been putting out great effort to feed climate change denial. So anybody who cares about climate change and wants to see us do anything about it can't really avoid the politics that swirl around it and prevent anything from happening.

Again, your mileage may vary. I just don't honestly see how this issue can be discussed without politics at the core of the conversation at this point, and to the degree that it's going to ruffle feathers, that's sort of an unavoidable thing when a political group is blocking action that a lot of people feel is absolutely needed.

I do wish that people would get to know more of the complexity of these issues in the rural West, because I think that would help the conversation among all the various sets of people who are open to it, but that's a problem even with lots of other Californians. The folks on the coast tend to know almost nothing about the realities in the valley and mountains; I've spent the majority of my life in the valley, and it's no easy feat to grasp it all. So I'm sure not going to expect Dr. Masters to have a terrific grip on a bunch of sociopolitical stuff out here that people who live 100 miles from me don't usually seem to have themselves.

That hope for greater understanding of the complexity is why I posted such a long and rambly comment, though. The Tea Party stuff is part of the problem, and it certainly holds a lot more sway in somewhere like Redding (or Bakersfield, or Yreka, or Galt, or Turlock...) but it's not remotely the whole picture, and it's even honestly really oversimplified to just turn it into "blue" and "red" divisions. That's true everywhere, but it's most especially true here. There are a lot of people in these areas who are traditionally conservative, but who are also concerned and starting to be more open to the conversations we all need to be having.

Getting around those longstanding divisions is hard.

Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting Neapolitan:
I know this much: more than one peer-reviewed study has shown that regular viewers of Fox News are among the most uninformed and misinformed of all consumers of major US media. I also know from personal experience--I live in a deeply conservative county, one in which Fox is blasting on every TV in every bar, restaurant, and shop in town--that where climate science is concerned, Fox presents a point of view that is overwhelmingly incorrect, and overwhelmingly biased against scientific fact and consensus. Surely you're not suggesting that listening to some Fox hogwash would be a valid way of "balancing" the tens of thousands of words from peer-reviewed science I read every day, are you?


Nea, you come off very much as someone who is bitter and angry.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Neo is correct The coast( where most people live) is very blue and the interior central to northern Calif is very red.

Redding is an interesting town. Brutally hot and humid in the summer.. once you get north of the Sacramento/Bay Area region the population plunges, Redding which is the largest town has less than 100K folks. As to most people live on the coast... not sure about that there may be similar numbers but in no ways is there a large majority no the coast. Northern CA is one of the most beautiful parts of the US for sure. If you have not driven HWY 101 through the redwoods you need to plan that as your next vacation. Inland, north of Redding is this very cool mountain:
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Quoting Levi32:


That's exactly what I was discussing with one of the NWS Norman forecasters yesterday. I was questioning him on whether this area saw as many MCSs come through in a NW flow during May and June during the last couple years as we have seen this year, and it certainly seems that the ridge is not as overbearing as it was. Every time I look at the height field in the southeast U.S. it is somewhat depressed, which would be a bad pattern for the rest of the hurricane season. The above-normal soil moisture to the east is only going to support the continuation of this pattern as well.

I must offer that Height Field some Prozac. Especially if it will help the U.S. from getting whacked.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
Quoting daddyjames:


What were you expecting, I already commented that I came in with the misconception that the hosts would be more confrontational. Which, as i admit, was unfair on my part.

Show is over. All in all, a very well-done production - but very little interaction with the audience.

Thought it was a little light, but most likely due to the format where each guest was featured separately, leaving little time for questions.
I assume that they gave up on taking calls; wacko conspiracy theories and ideologically deep red drum-thumping really have no place in a scientific dialog...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I know this much: more than one peer-reviewed study has shown that regular viewers of Fox News are among the most uninformed and misinformed of all consumers of major US media. I also know from personal experience--I live in a deeply conservative county, one in which Fox is blasting on every TV in every bar, restaurant, and shop in town--that where climate science is concerned, Fox presents a point of view that is overwhelmingly incorrect, and overwhelmingly biased against scientific fact and consensus. Surely you're not suggesting that listening to some Fox hogwash would be a valid way of "balancing" the tens of thousands of words from peer-reviewed science I read every day, are you?


To be fair, the studies have found that regular viewers of msNBC (which I like) are equally uninformed/misinformed as viewers of FOX News. Just in the other direction . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting sar2401:

Of course not, but I'm not the one that started off the conversation with "the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California" either. How exactly does the color of a part of a state affect the topic? Does "deep red" mean "kncuckle dragging, slobering morons" while "deep blue" means "incredibly smart, literate people"? Seems like sterotyping to me.


No, it's because survey after survey, such as this one from pew Link shows that self identified "conservatives" are more likely to be skeptical or non believing of climate change. There is no stereotyping here.

I personally thought it was a great outreach into a community that may hold views against climate change by being on the radio and answering questions in a nice, calm, scientific way.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
If you and/or your grandfather would be so kind as to present evidence of misinformation and/or falsified data, I'd be very interested in seeing it. It's easy to toss out such accusations, but I've yet to see anyone actually produce the evidence.

FWIW, the only reason predictions sound like "doom and gloom" is because they really are just that.


Please read the book, "The Inconvenient Skeptic." I'm guessing you will find some excuse not to read it. After all, isn't that the progressive way of doing things?
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Leepi





Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting MechEngMet:




Yes, I'm a bit tired of it too... Thanks for posting.


I'm a bit tired of clueless, emotionally driven people spouting the same airhead drivel on here, like 'Al Gore bought a beach front house, so that proves he doesn't believe in global warming'.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


So NEa, I take it you'll be tuning into FOX news for a few days then, right??

Yes Nea, as you previously posted, Ignorance is rampant. ...and I've caught you once again advising others to do what you yourself are not willing to do. Open your mind to alternate possibilities. Just try it once; as you are advising others to do so.
I know this much: more than one peer-reviewed study has shown that regular viewers of Fox News are among the most uninformed and misinformed of all consumers of major US media. I also know from personal experience--I live in a deeply conservative county, one in which Fox is blasting on every TV in every bar, restaurant, and shop in town--that where climate science is concerned, Fox presents a point of view that is overwhelmingly incorrect, and overwhelmingly biased against scientific fact and consensus. Surely you're not suggesting that listening to some Fox hogwash would be a valid way of "balancing" the tens of thousands of words from peer-reviewed science I read every day, are you?
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Put a fork in TD2. It's done.


Yeah it's dead for now.
Too bad we have nobody to barry him.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Looks like TD 2 jogged a little North?
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Put a fork in TD2. It's done.
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Quoting Patrap:
Quack, Quakk....




LOL
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


If it walks like a duck?


Not at all. I think that title contributed to my misconception of what the program would be like.

All-in-all, I thought the program hosts (they were guest hosts, substituting for the hosts normally at that time slot) were more than fair towards the guests, and did a good job of presenting the topic.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Yup. And, although wv is not showing much in the way of precip, I think we should remember that the mid-level circ can pull moisture inwards, albeit gradually overland, from all three sides of the flat peninsula. Agree, weaker system with present steering will continue to drift a bit more polewards even if it's ever so slowly.
Oh, and g'morning, weathergeeks! :) Have a nice Tuesday!




And, if we consider butterfly, fractal elements, TD02 may even get a slight friction boost more poleward from the Meseta Central peaks to its south. 2000 ft or so elevations are still well below 800mb heights, but again a weaker, lower-level circ is effected, even if ever-so slightly, by the granular elements in its environment. Yup, that's a stretch, but, FWIW, not much! ;)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah definitely got that hazy, milky look to it. I see what you mean by the SAL now, hopefully things improve for you guys over there.


This milky sky is not only boring but also very ugly!
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How exactly does the color of a part of a state affect the topic?

well a poll as recent of april of this year shows that 58 percent of republicans still feel that global warming is a hoax....not that is is unfounded science....not that the data is inconclusive....a hoax....


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Quack, Quakk....




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting mikatnight:


The host isn't at all what I expected...


What were you expecting, I already commented that I came in with the misconception that the hosts would be more confrontational. Which, as i admit, was unfair on my part.

Show is over. All in all, a very well-done production - but very little interaction with the audience.

Thought it was a little light, but most likely due to the format where each guest was featured separately, leaving little time for questions.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Is TD 2's LLC gone? Only MLC still there?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It'll be interesting to see if the National Hurricane Center discontinues advisories or not. Obviously if one doesn't have a closed low-level circulation it doesn't officially meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone. However, the NHC has...and should in this case as well...continued advisories under the mindset that it would re-intensify within 24 hours.

It would be useless to discontinue them this afternoon just to start them again tomorrow afternoon.


Case in point: Ernesto last year basically opened up into a wave, but 24-36 hours later, it was making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the NHC issues Tropical Storm Watches up for the coast of eastern Mexico shortly.

Landfall, I would see is probably give or take 10 miles North or South of Veracruz.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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