TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can't forget the Sun either, that's another factor into climate change.


No, it's really not --particularly in the last three decades.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting daddyjames:


Welcome back - you know for a Scotsman - i believe you show wonderful constraint. ;)


'Arf! We're not all whisky fuelled psychos. Although, I bumped into a few of those in the 10 years I lived in Glasgow.
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This is the view out my hotel window right now. 

I have never seen so much fog in my life! The visibility has to be .5 miles maximum. It has gotten worse since I've taken this picture, and there are now bad thunderstorms heading towards the A.C. area.


They just issued a Flood Advisory for the western part of the county, as well as a Special Weather Statement for strong thunderstorms. It doesn't matter anyway, considering that I couldn't see it.
EDIT: Now I'm under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning!
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Science fact and denier fiction

[...] Deniers of global climate change are like people who wear eye masks and say, "Prove to me the light is bright."

Deniers of global climate change are like people who wear ear plugs and say, "Prove to me the song is beautiful."

Deniers of global climate change are like people who say "Prove to me the food is delicious" while refusing to taste it.

Deniers of global climate change claim to want proof the climate is warming while refusing to acknowledge it when it is presented to them.

Is it the teacher's fault when the student refuses to learn?

When someone is determined to not know something, we cannot make them know it. When someone in 2013 clings to the claim that the climate is not warming due to human activity, they must work extremely hard to avoid all the evidence to the contrary.

Global climate change deniers are like people in clown suits at a formal dance who insist they are wearing tuxedos. There is nothing you can say to them to convince them. Even the factual evidence of a mirror is inadequate if their eyes are closed. [...]
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Now we are starting to see some convective blowup. However it could just be the benefit of the heat of the day over the land. Next few hours should tell the tale.
Yes it will be fun to monitor. and hopefully it will hopefully absorb some of this current unstable energy... on the blog
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CFS please don't!
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Quoting Autistic2:
My best friends son just got back from his fourth tour overseas.

He told me.

I don’t think climate change will be an issue for much longer (Time frame years).

If I understand correctly.

Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels.

More people means more fuel used.

I think we will have a war of one religion against everyone else. There will be many less people when it is over.

Sure hope he is wrong.
i think your right. the religious fanatic christians in this country are preparing for this war. there leaders like palin and ted cruz etc refer to there followers as warriors who will take back america, freedom fighters, standing up to the president and liberals, patriots and true americans. there buying ammo and assault guns in record numbers. they are talking about cutting out parts of states for there own countries ( see colorado) they see evil in gays , latins, asians. athiest and anyone else that is an outsider. so couple our crazy christians with crazy muslims and your right ... global warming is probably not a bit thing for us to worry about. were going to kill each other off way sooner than global warming and all in the name of god, allah, buddah , flying spaghetti monster etc.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Yes, the sun plays a big role I would assume, as does volcanic activity. Otherwise, how did the last ice age end without any autos & not so many people or livestock? Who caused the "catastrophe" back then that sent cavemen clamoring for ways to halt climate change? Ooops, they invented fire - my bad.


Do you really think the scientists haven't accounted for natural forcings? It's all there in the published papers, all has been accounted for.
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Quoting yonzabam:
HUGE LOL!

Just back from a 1 hour ban for infringing the personal abuse' rule. Wasn't pleased at all, as I thought it must have been for a comment describing deniers in general as 'airheads'. Since it was a general comment, not directed at anyone in particular, I thought this unfair.

I made another comment at around the same time, describing Nea as a 'climate science Rottweiler'. It was a response to a post describing him as 'bitter and angry'. That's the post that's been deleted, so that must be the one I got banned for.

Anyway, I noticed Nea plussed it, so he obviously took it as the compliment it was intended to be.


Welcome back - you know for a Scotsman - i believe you show wonderful constraint. ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting JNTenne:


Now we are starting to see some convective blowup. However it could just be the benefit of the heat of the day over the land. Next few hours should tell the tale.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can't forget the Sun either, that's another factor into climate change.



Yes, the sun plays a big role I would assume, as does volcanic activity. Otherwise, how did the last ice age end without any autos & not so many people or livestock? Who caused the "catastrophe" back then that sent cavemen clamoring for ways to halt climate change? Ooops, they invented fire - my bad.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Last I heard, FOX is not omnipresent in US. There are large swaths of blue state areas in the NE in which hotels/motels give little or not access to FOX to those renting a room for the night. When FOX is listed, some of the places will keep it almost hidden way down the menu list. I think it is all absurd to go so far in trying to influence visitors like that.


Isn't that exactly what Fox News does to its viewers?
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Rapid scan visible loops are helpful.

Found the low-level circulation that can't be found from the standard floater loops.

Link

Looks to be just south of the Ciudad del Carmen, not north.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Definitely going up, I'm more concerned about the temperature rise and the impacts it may have on sea level rise.



Back in December, Seattle had all time record high tides. Here is a great image gallery (not mine) of the event. Link
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HUGE LOL!

Just back from a 1 hour ban for infringing the personal abuse' rule. Wasn't pleased at all, as I thought it must have been for a comment describing deniers in general as 'airheads'. Since it was a general comment, not directed at anyone in particular, I thought this unfair.

I made another comment at around the same time, describing Nea as a 'climate science Rottweiler'. It was a response to a post describing him as 'bitter and angry'. That's the post that's been deleted, so that must be the one I got banned for.

Anyway, I noticed Nea plussed it, so he obviously took it as the compliment it was intended to be.
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We are hopelessly addicted to fossil fuels, business/politicians have the power, not the people or the scientists; hence we have a problem. We have made good strides here in the USA, but since China makes many of the products we used to make; they, and other industrialized nations are now driving up CO2. We are making changes, doing better, and that's great and commendable. As a world we are doing these things. CO2 continues to go up, climate change continues to increase, it's on a pendulum upward. We need to do great things in regards to how we live. We all need to make huge sacrifices. We have also never lived in a more self-centered world. The changes needed to make real change happen would cause the vast majority in the world to go without many of the day to day items we have come to need. If we, worldwide all used 75% less gas, used 75% less energy as a whole, all planted 2500 trees a year, and donated a quarter of our income to preparing for the the changes that will be coming in the next 25-50 years we would well be on our way to really facing the daunting challenge that GW/climate change will bring. We're not capable of that sacrifice as a whole. We will sacrifice as a whole in other ways in the future.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting hydrus:
I have posted a few times on this subject. Have had more then one good laugh after someone said that atmospheric warming off is topic.


It always makes me laugh my behind off, too.

I mean, if it's "off topic" to discuss the science at the base of the entire global weather system on a weather blog...
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting daddyjames:




Technically, a 350 pound doctor telling you to lose weight could be beneficial, as you could see the effects of not losing weight. It would be the same as a former drug addict espousing the benefits of giving up drugs to current addicts. The voice of experience sometimes works wonders.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't believe I painted all people in either Collier or SWFL in general as misinformed. I merely noted that a) Collier is overwhelmingly conservative politically-speaking; b) Fox News is omnipresent in this county; and c) Fox News viewers are the most uninformed and/or misinformed of all mass media consumers. Those aren't my opinions, and I'm certainly not trying to "pants" anyone by stating them; they are simply verifiable truisms with abundant factual support. That doesn't mean there aren't conservation-minded people here, including many politically-conservative types--and thank Zeus for that, too, because there are numerous Collier residents (see: Florida Gov. Rick Scott, aka "Friend To Big Business") who'd be perfectly happy to see the Everglades drained and paved over, all that icky and inconvenient wildlife hauled away, Naples' beaches shut off to public access to make way for even more multimillion dollar private homes, and the near Gulf waters pincushioned with oil rigs to help pay for tuition at the Community School and Buffy's third Maserati.

Again, I don't believe I'll stop using emoticons; they're part and parcel of how I write on the internet, so you may as well demand I discontinue my use of commas and semicolons and dependent clauses. Tell you what, though; how about a compromise? I'll keep using emoticons, but I'll stop using vowels! Wll tht wrk wll ngh t mk vryn hppy?

;-)


Last I heard, FOX is not omnipresent in US. There are large swaths of blue state areas in the NE in which hotels/motels give little or not access to FOX to those renting a room for the night. When FOX is listed, some of the places will keep it almost hidden way down the menu list. I think it is all absurd to go so far in trying to influence visitors like that.
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Quoting MahFL:


About to re-enter water and blow up into a TS....possibly.


It looks kind of like my thoughts earlier today are happening; TD2 looks healthier as the blowup of moisture in the outer bands are feeding into the COC. This s probably its last-ditch effort of self-sustenance though: if it doesn't make it out to water soon, it'll peter out like it very nearly did already.

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Quoting Autistic2:


Gore discreated himself all by himself, jet and all. Not saying he is wrong but I don't want a 350 pound Dr. telling me I need to loose weight! Same concept


{{sigh}}

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting allancalderini:
How is td 2 doing?


A sloppy mess that if it gets up to TS, will be lucky.

By the way, do you see what I meant?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting daddyjames:


That's right, discredit the messenger to discredit the message. Give this a break.


Gore discreated himself all by himself, jet and all. Not saying he is wrong but I don't want a 350 pound Dr. telling me I need to loose weight! Same concept
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Here's how wind shear has been since mid-May across the Atlantic FWIW:

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Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Yes, you do live in a extremely red area, the county with the largest population in FL that backed Romney by a margin greater than 2-1. However, most of Collier county is racially homogeneous and older, both of which backed the republican by a 10+ point margin. Collier county is more fiscally conservative though, rather than socially or environmentally republican. Wealthy people that are against taxes, as we are an Income tax haven. Many citizens in Collier are actually well aware of the climate and the effects of fossil fuels and oil. Living in Lee County (conservative) I seem to recall both the buying of undeveloped waterfront property to make into a park/preserve on Gordon Drive, as well as an overwhelming displeasure of drilling in East Naples/Golden Gate. We also have extensive preserves and environmental protection on Sanibel, (JN Ding Darling) which is slightly conservative and extremely affluent. For you to insinuate that people in Collier County (as well as the rest of SWFL) to be misinformed just because of watching news on a particular channel is condescending. Of course, your the king of making other people feel horrible. Just because people have different viewpoints from you does not give you the right to verbally "pants" them and suck the dignity out of the person. I understand you have rigid viewpoints, and this is a climate change blog, but please stop being so draconian with your words. You may sugarcoat things because you are a great debater, but I am tired of seeing you bash everyone for their dissenting viewpoint.

For pete's sake, please stop the ;-), thats what made me come up with this rant in the first place. Make me eat my words like so many others before you. (In no way am I against global warming, I'm fed up with your attitude)
FM
I don't believe I painted all people in either Collier or SWFL in general as misinformed. I merely noted that a) Collier is overwhelmingly conservative politically-speaking; b) Fox News is omnipresent in this county; and c) Fox News viewers are the most uninformed and/or misinformed of all mass media consumers. Those aren't my opinions, and I'm certainly not trying to "pants" anyone by stating them; they are simply verifiable truisms with abundant factual support. That doesn't mean there aren't conservation-minded people here, including many politically-conservative types--and thank Zeus for that, too, because there are numerous Collier residents (see: Florida Gov. Rick Scott, aka "Friend To Big Business") who'd be perfectly happy to see the Everglades drained and paved over, all that icky and inconvenient wildlife hauled away, Naples' beaches shut off to public access to make way for even more multimillion dollar private homes, and the near Gulf waters pincushioned with oil rigs to help pay for tuition at the Community School and Buffy's third Maserati.

Again, I don't believe I'll stop using emoticons; they're part and parcel of how I write on the internet, so you may as well demand I discontinue my use of commas and semicolons and dependent clauses. Tell you what, though; how about a compromise? I'll keep using emoticons, but I'll stop using vowels! Wll tht wrk wll ngh t mk vryn hppy?

;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Can't forget the Sun either, that's another factor into climate change.

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The TD2 system looks like it is running out of gas.
On the flip side, it also appears to be tracking more NW now, toward the West Central GOM or Central BOC. Is that correct? If so, will there be enough energy left to kick-start something once it gets out into open water? Just curious. I see the WV imagery shows dry air yet in the W GOM, but that has dwindled over what it was.
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317. MahFL
Quoting allancalderini:
How is td 2 doing?


About to re-enter water and blow up into a TS....possibly.
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How is td 2 doing?
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For some insight on those facing issues from Climate Change.



American Indian & Alaska Native Climate Change Working Group


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What's it?
Is there one?
.. according to the scholars at Google it's: "Poof"
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Definitely going up, I'm more concerned about the temperature rise and the impacts it may have on sea level rise.

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312. MahFL
Quoting ARiot:
Every facet of every part of the entire global economy is hopelessly addicted to cheap fossil fuel.
..



You obviously don't pay for gasoline to fill your car up then ?
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Quoting whipster:


And Gore's science credentials are what, exactly?


That's right, discredit the messenger to discredit the message. Give this a break.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting JNTenne:

Be safe under those oaks.. I was at a pool party a couple of summers ago and a neighbor had a huge oak and suddenly this 40 foot long branch came crashing down wiping out most of their patio... 

I sure will! Thanks.... Used to think it was only the brittle trees like silver maple, poplar, cottonwood, and willows that shed their branches. But oaks would leave a nice little bump on the noggin too. :p
Quoting pcola57:


Can't wait to see them Nat..
Darn plug in..LoL.. :)

Thanks! :) I know. The technicality of these devices sometimes go over my head. LOL
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309. MahFL
Quoting ricderr:
All this focus on greenhouse gasses pales in comparison to the amount of water the planet is locking up in concrete, plastics etc. that can't be gotten back.


please expound


Well that should offset sea level rises, clear more forests and build more concrete cities !
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't see what everybody's issue is with people discussing climate change on Dr. Masters blog. Climate and weather, after all, are very much interrelated, and the doctor himself talks about it several times a week. Either ignore the people talking about it, come back later, or do what most people do and just deal with it. Who said there can't be more than one conservation on the blog at a time? Nobody's forcing you to be part of the discussion lol.
I have posted a few times on this subject. Have had more then one good laugh after someone said that atmospheric warming is off topic.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting FLwolverine:
As I understand it, climate scientists do not deny that natural factors have some small effect, but there isn't anything that comes anywhere close to having the warming effect that CO2 does.

You say we can't be 100% certain warming is caused by CO2. What percentage of certainty do you want before you agree that we are under a great threat? Are you just going to sit back waiting for "100% certainty" while the arctic ice melts and the jet stream patterns change and the weather gets more and more wierd? Really? Have you actually read any of the science?


I never said it wasnt a threat or that we shouldnt deal with
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What's it?
Is there one?


In Chinese- it's '噗!'
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Everyone has done really well today to keep the topic
of discussion going. That topic is not about bloggers
themselves. Please stop that discussion and get back
to the blog topic. Thanks.
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Quoting Autistic2:
My best friends son just got back from his fourth tour overseas.

He told me.

I don’t think climate change will be an issue for much longer (Time frame years).

If I understand correctly.

Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels.

More people means more fuel used.

I think we will have a war of one religion against everyone else. There will be many less people when it is over.

Sure hope he is wrong.


I ate sand a couple times myself and can tell you that is exactly what one side wants. And not the American public side either. You may sit in your condos and think "it will never come to that" or "it will never show up on my doorstep". I'm not saying it will but the problems are soon to boil over into your backyard a lot sooner than the rising sea will get your Persian rugs wet. Just my opinion and food for thought.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I think it's a fair point you're making.




Thank you for beautifully illustrating the point I am trying to make. It's a matter of respecting one another first, establishing communication, and discussing things - even passionately - without devolving into name-calling or slapping labels (preconceived notions) on people.

The irony of Dr. M's post seems to escape everyone.


Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change.


Now if Tea party had been placed in quotes - that would have communicated something entirely different. But I know many "conservatives" that think the Tea Party is far off to the extreme (trust me - I live in the reddest state in the nation).

The title undermines the first two sentences on learning how to effectively communicate (anything). Guess the doc should revisit those lectures.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
302. ARiot
Every facet of every part of the entire global economy is hopelessly addicted to cheap fossil fuel.

It's time to adapt. We may have enough time to do it.

While efforts to educate others about the causes are admired, it's too late. We're going to burn every last bit of fossil fuel we can extract until it is no longer cost-effective to do so. Even then we will continue to burn it in small pockets of the "new" world we will have made for ourselves. Even after what comes after, whatever that looks like and whoever is left -- even though they know -- they will extract and burn fossil fuels.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What's it?
Is there one?


In French it 's 'pouf!'
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Ok for all intensive purposes some things are 100% even if they truly are 99.999%.

That's what I was getting at
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting ricderr:
..rut, roh..ric is deep in thought.

; )

We could seen a QOD update maybe?


actually i'm enjoying the posts....weather (pun intended) educated, uneducated or just plain ridiculous....a qod might be forthcoming....although more posts concerning water retention of concrete will astound me to the point i might not be able to concentrate


What about the water encased in plastic and then concrete? :)

BTW, looks like in every modiki el nino year, Florida has had a tropical cyclone hit? Does anyone know offhand?

Also, please quit attacking posters who use emoticons and just debate the issues peacefully. Repeat ten times,"it is just a blog".
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Quoting JNTenne:
just checked on the Latin translation for "Poof"
Quoting JNTenne:
just checked on the Latin translation for "Poof"


What's it?
Is there one?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Bought it. Read it (well, most of it). Wasn't impressed. Anyone who hopes to be taken seriously in the climate science arena--especially a non-scientist like Kehr--needs to not begin a book by repeating the term "climategate" over and over, almost like a mantra. (There was no "climategate", period. A number if independent investigations have proven that.) And to be taken seriously, one can't simply dismiss all the science that says otherwise and claim there's some Great Global Ice Age upon us, while failing to provide one speck of data to back up such a bizarre assertion.Can you guys make up your minds? Maybe huddle up and come to a consensus? If I use emoticons to show mirth, I'm accused of baiting; If I omit them, I'm accused of being bitter and angry. What would make you guys happy?

Anyway, anyone who is bitter and angry certainly has a right to be. After all, a concerted, deep-pocketed, decades-long effort by Big Energy to manipulate the public and delay action on what's considered to be the gravest threat modern civilization has ever faced is something to be up-in-arms about. I think anyone would agree. At least anyone with children...


And Gore's science credentials are what, exactly?
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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