TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting daddyjames:


What browser are you using - and what did you do to rid yourself of the problem that was occurring yesterday.
Quoting RitaEvac:



FireFox. Hard booted, shut it off from power button. I changed my search engine to Yahoo and was able to open google maps thru there


Weird - I would have no idea what is going on . . . maybe a setting in FireFox.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
I guess we got another wave in the makings already.

It will need to get into central Caribbean before any development happens though.

Looks like GFS develops it in extreme W. Caribbean, and turns it north into the W. Gulf. That's 10 days out for development, and 15 days for what looks like a minimum TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CFS looong range run.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
Quoting daddyjames:


Ok, since we got clarification of one erm - what is SMH?


Shaking My Head I think
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I think this is pretty awesome, hopefully you guys can see it because the resolution sucks :(

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Naga5000:


Here is a good start, from the IPCC Link and this will allow you to delve a little deeper. Link as it contains links to forcing data.
I believe you have mail.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4223
Quoting daddyjames:


Ok, since we got clarification of one erm - what is SMH?


Shaking my head.
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Quoting Naga5000:


Come on now, a hotel/motel is a private business and has no obligation to offer something if it doesn't want to. If they don't want to offer something, and you don't like it, you have the power of consumer choice. Either way, it's all kind of irrelevant.


Exactly, and the power of consumer choice is breaking into the anti-FOX business attitudes in the NE USA, as peeps want FOX when they check in for the night, some are deciding they'd rather have their customer $$$ instead of trying to force their own politics on every visitor. Good. BTW, this is getting so off-topic, so I will stop on it here.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What's it?
Is there one?


If you put the word poof into the Google Translate and tell it to change to Latin it will just Capitalize it.......lol
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Lovely, I came on here in middle of an GW debate. I also grew up in the wrong years... SMH!


Ok, since we got clarification of one erm - what is SMH?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting daddyjames:


What browser are you using - and what did you do to rid yourself of the problem that was occurring yesterday.



FireFox. Hard booted, shut it off from power button. I changed my search engine to Yahoo and was able to open google maps thru there
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Naga5000:


Here is a good start, from the IPCC Link and this will allow you to delve a little deeper. Link as it contains links to forcing data.


gracias, senor/ita.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Is that showing a picture of "Rambo" after all? lol.


Hey, we'll have to finalize that list and forward our recommendations to the proper authorities!

Would that be the Justice League of America?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731

Quoting wxgeek723:


I just went through it in Camden County and I'll tell ya Mt. Holly is definitely sleeping on the job, took them about 20 minutes to issue a "Special Weather Statement" when it clearly required a Severe TStorm Warning with 50mph gusts and pea sized hail.

Way worse than the "DERECHO" last week. And not even called for.
Well then I'm in for a wild ride, considering I'm near the 50th floor of my hotel.
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whats not for get they added this rule 11


Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I think the hard part is finding what percentage natural forcings have compared to artificial forcings. Do you have any papers that analyze the difference in what change is natural and what is artificial, and how they relate?


Here is a good start, from the IPCC Link and this will allow you to delve a little deeper. Link as it contains links to forcing data.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3359
380. txjac
Quoting yonzabam:


It's retro speak for lol! Maybe it's a UK thing. Comic book characters often said 'Arf! when they were amused.



LOL or ARF ...ARF to me is something a dog says ...arf, arf
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Quoting Gearsts:


Is that showing a picture of "Rambo" after all? lol.
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Quoting daddyjames:


VA, care to place a wager . . . ;)


Always! :p
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Lovely, I came on here in middle of an GW debate. I also grew up in the wrong years... SMH!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
Quoting JNTenne:
ok I will admit that I'm not up to speed on a lot of the new texting lingo.. lol omg imho I understand, but what is arf???


It's retro speak for lol! Maybe it's a UK thing. Comic book characters often said 'Arf! when they were amused.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks dead,but I am still hoping it becomes Barry or I would loose my bet with Jorge.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4223
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
oh my this blog...


VA, care to place a wager . . . ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting weatherbow:


This is the view out my hotel window right now. 

I have never seen so much fog in my life! The visibility has to be .5 miles maximum. It has gotten worse since I've taken this picture, and there are now bad thunderstorms heading towards the A.C. area.


They just issued a Flood Advisory for the western part of the county, as well as a Special Weather Statement for strong thunderstorms. It doesn't matter anyway, considering that I couldn't see it anyway.
EDIT: Now I'm under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning!


I just went through it in Camden County and I'll tell ya Mt. Holly is definitely sleeping on the job, took them about 20 minutes to issue a "Special Weather Statement" when it clearly required a Severe TStorm Warning with 50mph gusts and pea sized hail.

Way worse than the "DERECHO" last week. And not even called for.
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oh my this blog...
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Quoting weatherbow:


This is the view out my hotel window right now.


Hey, I know that view exactly!

Tule fog

(No real point I'm making, I just think that tule fog is neat. Yeah, that's some good fog you've got!)

If you get rain in those thunderstorms, the fog will lighten considerably, on the plus side. Stay safe!
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
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Quoting RitaEvac:


No, but notice can't get to google, and Wundermap wont work since it's using google maps.


What browser are you using - and what did you do to rid yourself of the problem that was occurring yesterday.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting Naga5000:


Do you really think the scientists haven't accounted for natural forcings? It's all there in the published papers, all has been accounted for.


I trust modern scientists much like I trust the U.S. Govt these days, or the news media -- all tilted for various reasons.
Still, yes, scientists likely do consider such things to some measure. So what? Will it change anything? If the sun were THE cause, what could we do? Nothing. So, while we can try to do something, we cannot do enough, and we should not blame the USA for all the negatives of nations like China & India. Howh methane does India's cattle push out per year? -- Gotta be huge. Why not create a global bash on India saying they must kill their cows & use them to feed the poor or be guilty of climate change? Sure, the USA can become more efficient: good. I won't knock that.
Meanwhile, if you kill a cow & eat meat, you help save from further greenhouse gases. :))
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Quoting JNTenne:
Source links are awesome with this type of comment.. I hate having to search myself after all!

Link

Or if you don't feel like reading, a quick look at this should suffice.

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Quoting daddyjames:


A sloppy mess that if it gets up to TS, will be lucky.

By the way, do you see what I meant?
Quoting daddyjames:


A sloppy mess that if it gets up to TS, will be lucky.

By the way, do you see what I meant?
Yeah I saw it thanks very much for the advice.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4223
Quoting txjac:


Intampa and others complaining about a political party.

Could we please just stop with it? I am a conservative and I do read Fox News (in addition to many other news sites)

I am a Republican that BELIEVES in AGW and climate change.

I am also a gun owner with CHL - still believe in climate change and AGW

I am a Christian - Still believe in AGW and climate change

Please let's stop with the politics of the debate. So many assume that all of us "conservatives" are the same ...have the same priorities. There is no truth in it


Totally agree with except you can't blame the blog members, blame the blog host.

A repost of what I said before:

The irony of Dr. M's post seems to escape everyone.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change.

Now if Tea party had been placed in quotes - that would have communicated something entirely different. But I know many "conservatives" that think the Tea Party is far off to the extreme (trust me - I live in the reddest state in the nation).

The title undermines the first two sentences on learning how to effectively communicate (anything). Guess the doc should revisit those lectures.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
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Quoting yonzabam:


'Arf! We're not all whisky fuelled psychos. Although, I bumped into a few of those in the 10 years I lived in Glasgow.
ok I will admit that I'm not up to speed on a lot of the new texting lingo.. lol omg imho I understand, but what is arf???
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


How so? I mean, since when does one news org or TV corp have the obligation to promote its competitors? However, a hotel/motel does have an obligation to cater to the interests of customers and to offer the best services for the $$, right? -- I also do not have a problem with say CBS not making references to FOX or NBC or CNN in its broadcasts. :-)


Come on now, a hotel/motel is a private business and has no obligation to offer something if it doesn't want to. If they don't want to offer something, and you don't like it, you have the power of consumer choice. Either way, it's all kind of irrelevant.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3359
Quoting daddyjames:


Not to my knowledge, why are you still having problems?


No, but notice can't get to google, and Wundermap wont work since it's using google maps.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Is Google down?


Not to my knowledge, why are you still having problems?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting Birthmark:

No, it's really not --particularly in the last three decades.
Source links are awesome with this type of comment.. I hate having to search myself after all!
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
I apologize for not sourcing the graph I posted earlier. I obviously made a rookie mistake and it was not in fact an accurate post in my part. It will not happen again.

What I am good at though, and what I majored in, is statistics. Here is what I can say about CO2 (ppm) having any correlation with the change in temperature (degrees Celsius) that we are seeing Globally.

Source: A Warming Debate. A statistical Analysis of variables associated with Climate Change.

The graph below simply represents every yearly calculated CO2 value in parts per million (ppm) and its associated delta Temperature value(degrees Celsius). This dataset is not set in chronological order. All we are trying to find out here is if there is any correlation between the two. NOT CAUSE! So how well does CO2 correlate with the change in temperature anomaly of any given year?

Here is out scatter plot ranging from 450,000 to 2,000 years ago.





Correlation values can range from 1 to -1, with 1 showing strong correlation and -1 showing a strong negative correlation. The correlation obtained from this dataset shows a .89 value, or a 89% correlation between the two variables NOT CAUSE, just correlation! Anything measuring above a .7 is considered a strong relationship, likewise with -.7 showing a strong negative relationship, with lesser values implying less correlation as you near zero.

This is just one aspect of breaking down data, we can even break this down much more thoroughly with multiple variables and find out in a group of variables which has the more influence any other given variable. I will save that for tonight.

The gentleman that runs this site is Mr. Jason Sale and has quite a few well written and very easy to understand viewpoints on Climate Change and the statistical datasets that come with them.

Source: Global Warming Debate
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355. txjac
Quoting intampa:
i think your right. the religious fanatic christians in this country are preparing for this war. there leaders like palin and ted cruz etc refer to there followers as warriors who will take back america, freedom fighters, standing up to the president and liberals, patriots and true americans. there buying ammo and assault guns in record numbers. they are talking about cutting out parts of states for there own countries ( see colorado) they see evil in gays , latins, asians. athiest and anyone else that is an outsider. so couple our crazy christians with crazy muslims and your right ... global warming is probably not a bit thing for us to worry about. were going to kill each other off way sooner than global warming and all in the name of god, allah, buddah , flying spaghetti monster etc.


Intampa and others complaining about a political party.

Could we please just stop with it? I am a conservative and I do read Fox News (in addition to many other news sites)

I am a Republican that BELIEVES in AGW and climate change.

I am also a gun owner with CHL - still believe in climate change and AGW

I am a Christian - Still believe in AGW and climate change

Please let's stop with the politics of the debate. So many assume that all of us "conservatives" are the same ...have the same priorities. There is no truth in it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Naga5000:


Do you really think the scientists haven't accounted for natural forcings? It's all there in the published papers, all has been accounted for.


I think the hard part is finding what percentage natural forcings have compared to artificial forcings. Do you have any papers that analyze the difference in what change is natural and what is artificial, and how they relate?
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Quoting Autistic2:


Gore discreated himself all by himself, jet and all. Not saying he is wrong but I don't want a 350 pound Dr. telling me I need to loose weight! Same concept


The doc could be 350 lbs _and still be right_. That's the point that everybody who makes that argument misses.

You don't have to like the doc. You can think he's a friggin' hypocrite. But what he said may still be true.

Smoking is terrible for your health, you shouldn't do it. It could give you emphysema, heart disease, so on.

^Is that statement less true because I said it and I smoke like a chimney?
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Is Google down?
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Quoting Naga5000:


Isn't that exactly what Fox News does to its viewers?


How so? I mean, since when does one news org or TV corp have the obligation to promote its competitors? However, a hotel/motel does have an obligation to cater to the interests of customers and to offer the best services for the $$, right? -- I also do not have a problem with say CBS not making references to FOX or NBC or CNN in its broadcasts. :-)
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Quoting yonzabam:


'Arf! We're not all whisky fuelled psychos. Although, I bumped into a few of those in the 10 years I lived in Glasgow.


LOL
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
349. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapid scan visible loops are helpful.

Found the low-level circulation that can't be found from the standard floater loops.

Link

Looks to be just south of the Ciudad del Carmen, not north.


Against better judgement, I'm not ready to give it up yet either. Still a decent piece of mid to low level vorticity that should be over water between Ciudad del Carmen and Campeche by this evening. With some open water underneath it for the first time, who knows?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I never said it wasnt a threat or that we shouldnt deal with
Well, for all intents and purposes you haven't agreed that AGW is a threat that should be dealt with, either. Your responses have been noticeably ambivalent. Just don't stay ambivalent too long or it may be too late to do anything about it (assuming it isn't already - but that's another discussion).




Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2359
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can't forget the Sun either, that's another factor into climate change.


No, it's really not --particularly in the last three decades.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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