TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ScottLincoln:

So your refutation to Neapolitan is a question about Al Gore's science credentials. Your hidden claim there is that
1) Al Gore is not a climate scientist
2) People who are not climate scientists should not be referenced as good sources

That's a good claim. Problem is, Neapolitan and the other scientists on this blog discussing climate science typically reference peer-reviewed journal articles, science articles, blogs by scientists, etc. I'm also not sure when he has referenced a Gore book for information? A book written by a not-so-well-known non-scientist is not the same. You made an apples to oranges comparison.



Nea is a scientist ???!
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting daddyjames:


Warming is not debatable - what to do about it, or whether we should do something about it - is being debated.

And, yes, I agree that extreme elements on both sides are ridiculous.



I agree that man driven climate change is proven scientific fact. But apparently it is debatable based on what I see here. :) Not to mention in the House and the Senate where the Right debate with a lot of success that man driven climate change isn't happening. I base that on the 40% of the US populace that believe that with great conviction. It's a dangerous game being played.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 62901IL:

I just looked at the last disscussion from NHC and this is what it said.
THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND.
Very difficult = can not find and giving benefit of doubt based on tools they have.
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Autism, Air Pollution Link Confirmed By First National Study




Living in an area with high levels of air pollution may increase a woman's chances of having a child with autism, according to the first national study to date that investigates the possible link.

"Women who were exposed to the highest levels of diesel or mercury in the air were twice as likely to have a child with autism than women who lived in the cleanest parts of the sample," study author Andrea Roberts, a research associate with the Harvard School of Public Health, told The Huffington Post.

Earlier studies have established a potential connection between air pollution and autism risk, but have concentrated on a few individual states. The latest study, published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives on Tuesday, draws on a large sample of women across the whole country.

Researchers crossed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data on the level of air pollutants from year to year with data from the Nurses' Health Study, one of the longest running investigations of women's health in the U.S. They looked for associations between levels of pollutants in the time and place that a woman was pregnant and whether that woman went on to have a child with a diagnosed autism spectrum disorder.

The researchers split up the locations into fifths, and women who lived in the most polluted sections -- those with the highest levels of diesel particulates or mercury in the air -- were twice as likely to have a child with autism compared to those in the cleanest sections. Other types of air pollution, including lead, manganese and other hard metals, were also linked to a greater risk of autism, although the risk was not quite as high.

"All of the chemicals studied are known neurotoxins," Roberts said. "They are also known to pass from mother to baby while a woman is pregnant. It's very plausible that the 'stuff' the mother is taking in through the air is affecting her baby's brain development."

But the researcher cautioned against reading too much into the results, particularly with regard to mercury. Many parents continue to worry that the form of mercury sometimes used in vaccines is linked to autism -- although that claim has been repeatedly disproven by research efforts.

"Our data is not good enough to know which thing in the air might actually be causing this [link], if it even is something in the air that is increasing the risk of autism," Roberts said. "It might be that it's actually diesel that's [behind] the problem. We are skeptical about the possibility of mercury being causal in this way, through the air."

Alycia Halladay, the senior director for environmental and clinical sciences for the advocacy group Autism Speaks, said that "in terms of how [air pollution] is linked to autism, that's not something we're able to specifically define."

"We can make a lot of hypotheses, but we don't really know," added Halladay, who did not work on the study.

The next step, which would represent a crucial step forward, is to look at blood samples of both mothers and their babies to see what chemicals are actually being absorbed, Roberts said. Only then can researchers assert with any real certainty that the link exists, and begin to understand which specific air pollutants are the most damaging.

The cause of autism is not yet known, although researchers suspect that a combination of genetic and non-genetic factors, such as parental age and complications during pregnancy could all play a role.

For now, there are few specific steps women living in high-pollution areas can take in order to mitigate their risk.

"There are things any doctor or health care professional would tell you to do," Halladay said. Those include eating well, taking a prenatal vitamin, getting regular prenatal health care check-ups and staying away from sick people or viruses as much as possible.

"This is just a change in risk," she said, "it's certainly not a cause."

LINK
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


I trust modern scientists much like I trust the U.S. Govt these days, or the news media -- all tilted for various reasons.

Lucky for you, the science behind greenhouse gases - and CO2 in particular - has been around for decades. Roughly 100 years in fact. So if you were to go back to those more-trustworthy, older scientists, you'd find the roots of the same information.

Carbon dioxide's physical properties cause it to absorb and re-emit longwave radiation. This phenomena is why it is called a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases are one of the dominant controls of the earth's climate, along with solar activity. Today's numerous, independent observations and analyses show that natural factors like solar activity cannot explain the rapid changes (on geological and climatic timescales). This science was already set in motion long before your "modern scientists" entered the fray.
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Quoting Birthmark:

It's nonsense. It's at odds with the published, peer-reviewed temperature reconstructions. (I doubt that cartoon can make that claim.) The number of ways it is wrong would take me hours to list.

There are three different reconstructions in the image below, coupled with the recent temperature record. The cartoon you published is woefully in error.
Fine, but if we chose to say one group is wrong over another then how do we know who we can even trust?, To me you need Earth Scientists who study and specialize in rock formations and the soil to reconstruct what the atmosphere was like back then. Besides that graph only goes back to the year 500 while the one I posted is longer but most importantly it's just a generalization of events that occurred in ice ages and inter-glaciations. Saying it's in mass error is a bit extreme and goes against the aims of textbook material which is to give a generalization of the earth's past climate. Me, you, no one on here, not even the experts have the specifics to that, these are all just averages and generalizations. Done.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Thermometers, Tide gages, and photographs are not inherently political.
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Quoting centex:
They always late to make changes, they can't find LLC anymore and that was hours ago.

I just looked at the last disscussion from NHC and this is what it said.
THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1605
Quoting Birthmark:

Really? Then please do just that for us. TIA.


To do so would require mis-use of the data-set and improper statistical methods. Read what is written...

(facepalm)
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


What I want to know is, where can I get a big loan to start buying Canadian real estate to flip in warmer days?


Don't buy too far North, the permafrost under your feet might turn out not to be too "perma" at all - leaving you with a slice of swampland instead. Kind of like the Canadian version of the Florida land scams almost a century ago.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732


Here's the Crow I've enjoyed from Andrea...


Looks like I've picked a half decent time to take a break from posting to the main blog. :)
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City of Altamonte Springs is desperately trying to lower water levels at Cranes Roost Park to get ready for Red Hot & Boom 7/3/2013. Flooding is becoming a big problem now around Orlando as even some streets were impassable this morning. 9" to 13" of rain has now falling already this month across Orlando and we still have 2 more weeks left of June.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2863
What is all that action north of Venezuela?
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Quoting 62901IL:

How do we know that we don't have a depression anymore? NHC hasn't said anything.
They always late to make changes, they can't find LLC anymore and that was hours ago.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
whats not for get they added this rule 11


Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic


New community manager removed rule #11 when she took over on April 30th. I'm sure the Rules of the Road link at the bottom of comment section will get changed eventually as well.

We've made a few updates to these rules. There aren't any major changes or deviations from the previously published rules. These are simply meant to provide more clarification and transparency into how the rules are being enforced:

1. Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.
2. No personal attacks. This includes, but is not limited to: name calling, harassment or bullying toward any other member.
3. No hate speech of any kind is allowed.
4. Threats and intimidation will not be tolerated, and behavior of this type which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.
5. Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.
6. Keep conversations on topic and avoid adult-only topic themes. Our site is open to users of all ages, so please respect others.
7. Do not circumvent a ban or any other administrative action by using a another username or creating a new username.
8. No spam.


Go to this blog for more information:

Blog with updates to rules


EDIT: For your information, I am not a mod. I am simply posting the new rules.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


What I want to know is, where can I get a big loan to start buying Canadian real estate to flip in warmer days?

Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1605
Quoting daddyjames:


Warming is not debatable - what to do about it, or whether we should do something about it - is being debated.

And, yes, I agree that extreme elements on both sides are ridiculous.


What I want to know is, where can I get a big loan to start buying Canadian real estate to flip in warmer days?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
We don't have a depression anymore and next one to maybe form is BOC.

How do we know that we don't have a depression anymore? NHC hasn't said anything.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1605
Thanks Dr. Masters...Good afternoon friends!

Weather Station in Kingston

Elevation: 223 m
Temperature: 34.4 °C
Dew Point: 21.1 °C
Humidity: 46%

Wind:
SE at 9.7 km/h /
Wind Gust: 29.0 km/h /

Updated: 12:57 PM EST on June 18, 2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What does LHOC mean?
A)Larry's house of cakes.
B)Low High of circulation.
C)None of the above.
I do not know, i am asking because I once saw it on this blog but on a different post.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1605
Quoting Tribucanes:
It's impossible to take the politics out of the GW/climate change debate. It's absolutely political by nature. Big Business owns our political system. The Right fight the GW truth with a vigor that is hard to fathom until you look at the bottom lines. The Left is not prioritizing GW/climate change either. The Left is not without their Big Business puppet masters too. I'm an independent Christian who's main interests are the people and the truth. I'm not saying it's the Right that's the only problem. Our system, Right/Left is run by Big Business. The system as a whole has become a Business dominated, negotiate never, damn the people, broken mess, that can't and won't make GW/climate change a priority any time soon.


You have found kernal of truth in shellgame of life, grasshopper.
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Quoting 62901IL:

Haven't looked at satellite imagrey for a while, but what make you say that NHC should put a yellow circle in the BOC?
We don't have a depression anymore and next one to maybe form is BOC.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
It's impossible to take the politics out of the GW/climate change debate. It's absolutely political by nature. Big Business owns our political system. The Right fight the GW truth with a vigor that is hard to fathom until you look at the bottom lines. The Left is not prioritizing GW/climate change either. The Left is not without their Big Business puppet masters too. I'm an independent Christian who's main interests are the people and the truth. I'm not saying it's the Right that's the only problem. Our system, Right/Left is run by Big Business. The system as a whole has become a Business dominated, negotiate never, damn the people, broken mess, that can't and won't make GW/climate change a priority any time soon.


Warming is not debatable - what to do about it, or whether we should do something about it - is being debated.

And, yes, I agree that extreme elements on both sides are ridiculous.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting whipster:


And Gore's science credentials are what, exactly?

So your refutation to Neapolitan is a question about Al Gore's science credentials. Your hidden claim there is that
1) Al Gore is not a climate scientist
2) People who are not climate scientists should not be referenced as good sources

That's a good claim. Problem is, Neapolitan and the scientists on this blog discussing climate science typically reference peer-reviewed journal articles, science articles, blogs by scientists, etc. I'm also not sure when he has referenced a Gore book for information? A book written by a not-so-well-known non-scientist is not the same. You made an apples to oranges comparison.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Naga, I feel like there is a very large margin of error for the Total net anthropogenic forcing. Can it be trusted?

Is that just due to the still very unknowns of climate science and how it works?





This get's really difficult really fast, but it may answer your question. Link

To try and simply answer the question, the margin of error in this case stems mainly from the difficulty of aerosol measurements. Even with that particular difficulty contributing heavily to the net margin of error, the data still shows a net positive forcing.
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Quoting centex:
Might as well put yellow circle in BOC to be accurate. Not that anyone cares about being accurate.

Haven't looked at satellite imagrey for a while, but what make you say that NHC should put a yellow circle in the BOC?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1605
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think this is pretty awesome, hopefully you guys can see it because the resolution sucks :(



Trying to say this with my most objective-sounding internet voice: 4500 yrs is a hiccup in time for Earth, if you go by modern scientific evaluations of Earth's age. How much of the data shown also takes into consideration all the nuances of weather per year, per decade, per century? If we see a winter with record cold temps overall but which also had many very warm sunny daytimes temps, what figures do we observe -- only what suites our story-line of interest or everything?
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Might as well put yellow circle in BOC to be accurate. Not that anyone cares about being accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's impossible to take the politics out of the GW/climate change debate. It's absolutely political by nature. Big Business owns our political system. The Right fight the GW truth with a vigor that is hard to fathom until you look at the bottom lines. The Left is not prioritizing GW/climate change either. The Left is not without their Big Business puppet masters too. I'm an independent Christian who's main interests are the people and the truth. I'm not saying it's the Right that's the only problem. Our system, Right/Left is run by Big Business. The system as a whole has become a Business dominated, negotiate never, damn the people, broken mess, that can't and won't make GW/climate change a priority any time soon.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting MechEngMet:



You sir are absolutely correct that "Correlation is not cause". This same data set could be used (mis-used) to show that rising temperature is causing the release of CO2 (from the oceans).

Really? Then please do just that for us. TIA.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting GTcooliebai:
How's that nonsense? When first of all this is done by a meteorologist and a climatologist together, besides most Earth Science textbooks have this kinds of information.

It's nonsense. It's at odds with the published, peer-reviewed temperature reconstructions. (I doubt that cartoon can make that claim.) The number of ways it is wrong would take me hours to list.

There are three different reconstructions in the image below, coupled with the recent temperature record. The cartoon you published is woefully in error.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


What does SMH mean?
Choices:
(A) -- Smut Monkeys (are) Horny?
(B) -- So Many Hiccups?
(C) -- So Much Hell?
(D) -- Seek Mental Help?
(E) -- none of the above


Classy... it's E, none of the above. SMH is commonly known as Shaking My Head.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I apologize for not sourcing the graph I posted earlier. I obviously made a rookie mistake and it was not in fact an accurate post in my part. It will not happen again.

What I am good at though, and what I majored in, is statistics. Here is what I can say about CO2 (ppm) having any correlation with the change in temperature (degrees Celsius) that we are seeing Globally.

Source: A Warming Debate. A statistical Analysis of variables associated with Climate Change.

The graph below simply represents every yearly calculated CO2 value in parts per million (ppm) and its associated delta Temperature value(degrees Celsius). This dataset is not set in chronological order. All we are trying to find out here is if there is any correlation between the two. NOT CAUSE! So how well does CO2 correlate with the change in temperature anomaly of any given year?

Here is out scatter plot ranging from 450,000 to 2,000 years ago.





Correlation values can range from 1 to -1, with 1 showing strong correlation and -1 showing a strong negative correlation. The correlation obtained from this dataset shows a .89 value, or a 89% correlation between the two variables NOT CAUSE, just correlation! Anything measuring above a .7 is considered a strong relationship, likewise with -.7 showing a strong negative relationship, with lesser values implying less correlation as you near zero.

This is just one aspect of breaking down data, we can even break this down much more thoroughly with multiple variables and find out in a group of variables which has the more influence any other given variable. I will save that for tonight.

The gentleman that runs this site is Mr. Jason Sale and has quite a few well written and very easy to understand viewpoints on Climate Change and the statistical datasets that come with them.

Source: Global Warming Debate



You sir are absolutely correct that "Correlation is not cause". This same data set could be used (mis-used) to show that rising temperature is causing the release of CO2 (from the oceans).
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting txjac:


Thinking about my presence here in general ...if bashing certain political leanings is okay maybe I shouldnt be here?


Everyone is welcome - so please, sit down, let's have a virtual drink together.

of Fresca, of course. :D
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting txjac:


Thinking about my presence here in general ...if bashing certain political leanings is okay maybe I shouldnt be here?
'ignore' solves most of the problem. imho
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's cows and methane in India, not us and our fossil fuels!!
LOL

It's the sun, not us and our fossil fuels!! DUH

We have no idea how much of the warming is CO2, and how much is just natural variation or anything else!! OOPS

Climate has warmed before - must've been those silly cavemen farting or knights in shining armor burning torches!! HA-HA

Aw man, all of these arguments shot down? Well, crud-- there's always appeals to ignorance and Dunning-Kruger!

Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


What does SMH mean?
Choices:
(A) -- Smut Monkeys (are) Horny?
(B) -- So Many Hiccups?
(C) -- So Much Hell?
(D) -- Seek Mental Help?
(E) -- none of the above


So Many Hurricanes!

It's a weather blog after all.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting RitaEvac:



FireFox. Hard booted, shut it off from power button. I changed my search engine to Yahoo and was able to open google maps thru there
Hey Rita.. have you ever had to deal with malware before? wumail me if you like, I can help
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
406. txjac
Quoting daddyjames:


Based upon the blog - anything is fair game today.


Thinking about my presence here in general ...if bashing certain political leanings is okay maybe I shouldnt be here?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
I guess we got another wave in the makings already.

It will need to get into central Caribbean before any development happens though.

Looks like GFS develops it in extreme W. Caribbean, and turns it north into the W. Gulf. That's 10 days out for development, and 15 days for what looks like a minimum TS.


Yeah, I was noticing that possible meteorological blob myself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Naga, I feel like there is a very large margin of error for the Total net anthropogenic forcing. Can it be trusted?

Is that just due to the still very unknowns of climate science and how it works?



Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6481
403. txjac
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


What does SMH mean?
Choices:
(A) -- Smut Monkeys (are) Horny?
(B) -- So Many Hiccups?
(C) -- So Much Hell?
(D) -- Seek Mental Help?
(E) -- none of the above


I like D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats not for get they added this rule 11


Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic


Based upon the blog - anything is fair game today.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting Birthmark:

Looks okay. Pity it's nonsense.
How's that nonsense? When first of all this is done by a meteorologist and a climatologist together, besides most Earth Science textbooks have this kinds of information.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting daddyjames:


Ok, since we got clarification of one erm - what is SMH?


What does SMH mean?
Choices:
(A) -- Smut Monkeys (are) Horny?
(B) -- So Many Hiccups?
(C) -- So Much Hell?
(D) -- Seek Mental Help?
(E) -- none of the above
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats not for get they added this rule 11


Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic
very well said Taz!
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think this is pretty awesome, hopefully you guys can see it because the resolution sucks :(


Looks okay. Pity it's nonsense.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting daddyjames:


What browser are you using - and what did you do to rid yourself of the problem that was occurring yesterday.
Quoting RitaEvac:



FireFox. Hard booted, shut it off from power button. I changed my search engine to Yahoo and was able to open google maps thru there


Weird - I would have no idea what is going on . . . maybe a setting in FireFox.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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