TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 547 - 497

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

547. RTSplayer
7:12 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

It's quite possible that a fair amount of doom could happen very, very soon --within a few years.


The biggest risk is to people who already live in high risk areas anyway.

It lots of cases in the U.S. the risk is to places which should have had "build at your own risk" laws a generation ago, and most of them still haven't implemented such laws. Thank God Texas at least took the lead, following Ike. Nobody else seems to be following though.

New York is going with the NOLA option, and will be planning tens of billions of dollars worth of flood walls and levees. They will fail eventually, and cause even worse damage, however.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
546. Grothar
7:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Kori will recover. His injuries are not life-threatening but the sound painful.


The poor kid. I hope he will be OK. He keeps the night shift jumping. We should all drop a message on his blog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
545. ILwthrfan
7:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Solar correlation will never be better than CO2, but regardless, that is a pathetic statistical analysis. He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.


So do I need to calculate a 11 year solar average into the total solar irradiance output and compute that vs. Temperature or CO2? What's a cycle independent solar trend.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
544. dfwstormwatch
7:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2013


421
WWUS20 KWNS 181854
SEL4
SPC WW 181854
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-190200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES NORTH OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN CENTRAL IL.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM IA.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 870
543. ScottLincoln
7:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Levi32:
He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.


Good thing I keep a good amount of this climate data available for just such an occasion...
Using the GISS data and PMOD solar data over the 1950-2012 timeframe, you get the following R^2 between solar activity and near-surface atmospheric temperature:
Yearly average: 0.0010
Pentadal average: 0.0184
Decadal average: 0.0321
11yr running avg: 0.0180

So actually, there is no correlation, even with the data averaged over longer climatic periods to remove aspects of the solar cycle. The correlation is not zero because he didn't average out the solar cycle, apparently it is zero because there is not a correlation.

https://f8bbfe8f-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups. com/site/wmscottlincoln/home/other/global-temperat ure-contributors/related-info/11yr_avg_GISS_and_So lar.JPG

And, for what it's worth, the very very statistically insignificant trend lines show a negative relationship between solar and temperature over the last 60-ish years, meaning solar activity decreases have corresponded to temperature increases.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3192
542. WalkingInTheSun
7:07 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
The fact that TD2 has lost so much of its circulation should release it from being restricted by its former constraints & projections. Now that is is not enroute to its former "destination", swirling away as it was,...it becomes a free-form mass, a blobular system again, except with the hint of tropical unction underlying it -- the notion that it "WANTS" to do something, to become something, and given an opportunity, will. The opportunity is right in front of it's misguided, or should I say, it's now "unguided" mass.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1195
541. Birthmark
7:06 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Lurky, that pretty well sums up my position on things. Thanks for saving my poor old hands all that typing. :)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
540. LurkyMcLurkerson
7:03 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

Can you say for certain that a complete overthrow of the existing economy isn't called for in the face of the seriousness of AGW? That seems unlikely.

Doing nothing is pretty much what we're doing now. It is, unsurprisingly, not working.

Meeting in the middle *might* be the right thing to do...but if meeting in the middle produces policies that aren't up to the task? It's highly probable that we only get one shot at this to avoid huge problems.


I actually do feel immensely dubious that the kind of global capitalism we have now will be able to shift gears in the fundamental ways we need. Prioritizing profits and high GDP is at odds with reversing our constant upward trends in fossil fuel use, at least absent a solid and scalable alternative energy source. I mean, the economy runs on energy. Much as I wish it weren't so, we don't have a way to make enough energy yet through other means to replace fossil fuels well. I have high hopes for cheap solar, but it's going to take a lot more than we've done, and it isn't without its own set of problems.

I mean, the scale of energy we need is absolutely immense, if we want to keep working the ways we do economically while also handling human population growth (!). Instead of GDP, think "joules," because they are what make GDP happen, whether we're talking about the energy it takes to power a car or the energy we need for human labor from growing vast fields of foodstuffs. The numbers are _huge_, and no matter what ways I look at it all, I find it hard to make the goals of endless profit/growth work alongside the goals of sustainable resource use and lower emissions. Maybe there are ways to shift that, and maybe not. I don't know.

But I do know that the free market will fall apart without our current energy inputs, that we have a ways to go before there's enough alternative energy to maintain them without fossil fuels, and that we will never, ever find a cheaper source of joules than coal.

So I agree with the point you're getting at here.

But frankly, at the moment, I'd be happy to just see some signs that policy is trying to something real instead of just more glossy publications about how someday, we'll have to do something real.

What mostly has happened so far is a bunch of countries having meetings about how future meetings will be needed while ordering more panicky studies from panicky scientists who pretty much see what's up and still can't set policy. So actual movement of any kind that really _means_ something -- gotta start someplace.

And there's a lot we could do, policy wise, that isn't all that divisive or difficult. I don't think it will be nearly enough, but I think it's a good starting point, at lest.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
539. daddyjames
7:03 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Autistic2:
I hear doom boom and doom about GW. How long before any of that would actually start to happen? I think many people with much money to lose wont do anything until they see something concrete.


The question is, would you recognize it is happening when it does?

That is one of the fallacies of not paying attention to the science, or refusing to believe the evidence, or "not trusting" scientists.

By the time there is "overwhelming" evidence - we may find ourselves overwhelmed.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
538. schistkicker
7:02 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


They don't have enough accuracy or precision on the Sun's actual output over a decent amount of time to be useful.

Counting sunspots was a superstition invented before modern scientific units of temperature or energy.

Attempts to measure the Sun's output in modern units are only as old as Herschel, I think, and that was done indirectly with a pan of water of some spherical geometry calculations.


Scientists have produced reasonable reconstructions of total solar irradience going back to the early 1700's. And that's just with a quick search. Link

There's a distressing amount of "I personally don't know of anyone who's done this calculation or considered this question, so therefore I'll assume no one has" going on here.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
537. hurricanes2018
7:01 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPERN
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 28690
536. daddyjames
6:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
Global warming? How do we know how much sun was going on 4500 years ago versus now? Also, if people really cared about CO2 emissions, they'd plant more trees instead of cutting them down, right? Why blame people for CO2 when it's the fault of plants not feeding on enough of it. ;(
(silently waiting for the sound of hair-pulling)


Short-term storage (plants) is no substitution for longterm storage. If you think about it, all that coal, gas, and oil (carbon) are derived from plants over millions of years.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
535. Birthmark
6:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Autistic2:
I hear doom boom and doom about GW. How long before any of that would actually start to happen? I think many people with much money to lose wont do anything until they see something concrete.

It's quite possible that a fair amount of doom could happen very, very soon --within a few years.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
534. RTSplayer
6:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Solar correlation will never be better than CO2, but regardless, that is a pathetic statistical analysis. He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.


They don't have enough accuracy or precision on the Sun's actual output over a decent amount of time to be useful.

Counting sunspots was a superstition invented before modern scientific units of temperature or energy.

Attempts to measure the Sun's output in modern units are only as old as Herschel, I think, and that was done indirectly with a pan of water of some spherical geometry calculations.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
533. ILwthrfan
6:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Edit.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
532. TylerStanfield
6:55 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
For those who don't know, Kori (KoritheMan) was severely injured in a car accident last week. I think it would be nice for people to leave their best wishes on his blog.

Geeze! What's up with the blog members getting banged up lately! Get better Kori! Hope you are okay!
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1285
531. mikatnight
6:54 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
#511 MrMixon -
Good post. Keep on keepin on...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
530. Autistic2
6:54 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
I hear doom boom and doom about GW. How long before any of that would actually start to happen? I think many people with much money to lose wont do anything until they see something concrete.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
529. Bluestorm5
6:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


how do you know this?
He came to chat room few nights ago to talk with us young'uns. He told us himself. I also believe he posted something on blog that got lost.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
528. VAbeachhurricanes
6:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
Global warming? How do we know how much sun was going on 4500 years ago versus now? Also, if people really cared about CO2 emissions, they'd plant more trees instead of cutting them down, right? Why blame people for CO2 when it's the fault of plants not feeding on enough of it. ;(


*headdesk*
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
527. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting weatherbow:


This is the view out my hotel window right now.

I have never seen so much fog in my life! The visibility has to be .5 miles maximum. It has gotten worse since I've taken this picture, and there are now bad thunderstorms heading towards the A.C. area.


They just issued a Flood Advisory for the western part of the county, as well as a Special Weather Statement for strong thunderstorms. It doesn't matter anyway, considering that I couldn't see it.
EDIT: Now I'm under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning!


I hope that you did not pay extra for "a room with a view". :)

Stay safe!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
526. BaltimoreBrian
6:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


how do you know this?


Because we are friends and he emailed me. His shoulders have the most serious injuries.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
525. Bluestorm5
6:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
What is all this talk I have been seeing about possible El Nino conditions or Modiki el Nino conditions. As far as I can see there should remain Neutral or near Neutral Enso conditions throughout most of the season. Yes, there were certain models which showed changes in El Nino 3.4 regions and some change in region 4, but slight. Some Euro models I believe, have just been running scenarios of possible conditions.







Yeah, I noticed that El Nino is still a possibility, but I still think we'll have neutral year. Of course, we'll never know until the season really ramp up.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
524. WalkingInTheSun
6:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Global warming? How do we know how much sun was going on 4500 years ago versus now? Also, if people really cared about CO2 emissions, they'd plant more trees instead of cutting them down, right? Why blame people for CO2 when it's the fault of plants not feeding on enough of it. ;(
(silently waiting for the sound of hair-pulling)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1195
523. BaltimoreBrian
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Kori will recover. His injuries are not life-threatening but the sound painful.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
522. ScottLincoln
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Solar correlation will never be better than CO2, but regardless, that is a pathetic statistical analysis. He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.

Both comparisons are not the best of statistical analysis. They do not allow for slower responses to climate and assume virtually no lag, no feedbacks, and no teleconnections. I wonder how much stronger the correleation coefficient would be if pentadal or decadal temperature averages for atmosphere/cryosphere/ocean temperatures were used instead of the raw data, similar to your suggestion for solar activity?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3192
521. Doppler22
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The CMC suggests we could start seeing tropical development off the Carolinas in as little as 48 hours:



Looks to peak around 96 hours:



Other models show the feature but are less aggressive and don't appear to have it reach TD status. Probably a long shot that it becomes a TD or TS but it's happened like that plenty of times before so we'll see.

If that were to happen... then 3 for 3 Atlantic storms would've loved the coastline
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3742
520. daddyjames
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
For those who don't know, Kori (KoritheMan) was severely injured in a car accident last week. I think it would be nice for people to leave their best wishes on his blog.


That really sucks! Was wondering where he was . . . I hope that he completely recovers!
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
519. Birthmark
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Holding steady so far compared to last year, will have to see if that holds.


Uh-huh. Except that the season has really only been underway for a couple of weeks and the Central Arctic Basin looks terrible. It's quite possible that we will have an ice-free North Pole this year.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
518. VAbeachhurricanes
6:50 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
For those who don't know, Kori (KoritheMan) was severely injured in a car accident last week. I think it would be nice for people to leave their best wishes on his blog.


how do you know this?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
517. FtMyersgal
6:50 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
For those who don't know, Kori (KoritheMan) was severely injured in a car accident last week. I think it would be nice for people to leave their best wishes on his blog.


Thanks for letting us know Brian! I hope Kori will be ok...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
516. daddyjames
6:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

Can you say for certain that a complete overthrow of the existing economy isn't called for in the face of the seriousness of AGW? That seems unlikely.

Doing nothing is pretty much what we're doing now. It is, unsurprisingly, not working.

Meeting in the middle *might* be the right thing to do...but if meeting in the middle produces policies that aren't up to the task? It's highly probable that we only get one shot at this to avoid huge problems.


No, I don't think that would be possible. Unless you want to survive by subsidence farming. Right now, our economy exists because we can ship goods, including food, around the world because of (relatively cheap) transportation costs.

A sudden change would be extremely disruptive, and financially painful.

A slow change, encouraging alternative fuels for transportation, and the building of that infrastructure would be wise - while the other is still functional.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
515. BaltimoreBrian
6:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
For those who don't know, Kori (KoritheMan) was severely injured in a car accident last week. I think it would be nice for people to leave their best wishes on his blog.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8605
514. HurricaneHunterJoe
6:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Hi Gro! Good to see you!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
513. mikatnight
6:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Birthmark:

Have you tried a bank? My understanding is that they do that sort of thing.


Not so much any more i think. rather be trading on the stock market where all the big bucks are.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
512. Grothar
6:47 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
What is all this talk I have been seeing about possible El Nino conditions or Modiki el Nino conditions. As far as I can see there should remain Neutral or near Neutral Enso conditions throughout most of the season. Yes, there were certain models which showed changes in El Nino 3.4 regions and some change in region 4, but slight. Some Euro models I believe, have just been running scenarios of possible conditions.





Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
511. MrMixon
6:47 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Isaac Asimov's book, Nightfall, tells the story of a planet bathed in perpetual sunlight due to multiple suns. However, scientists learn the planet is due for a rare, but inevitable, eclipse which will plunge the planet into a temporary darkness.

The scientists, concerned about the public reaction to a sudden and unexpected planet-wide darkness, try to warn the people of the upcoming eclipse, but nobody believes them. The people scoff and dismiss the scientists. Then the eclipse happens and guess what, the scientists are not given praise and apologies.... they are BLAMED for the eclipse and some of them are physically assaulted.

I read this book in the 80's and remembered thinking, I sure am glad I live in a world where scientists are respected and listened to and not in a world ruled by anti-intellectualism.

Now I watch with sadness as a massive media effort (I won't mention specific news networks) is successfully convincing many members of our society (including, sadly, my stepfather) that ALL scientists are untrustworthy. All of them! As a scientist myself I find it BEYOND disappointing that such anti-intellectual news sources have convinced my step-father and people like him that people like me, people who are just collecting data and presenting our analyses, should be opposed (even violently) lest, through tortuously twisted logic, we be responsible for the downfall of our country.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
510. MechEngMet
6:47 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Solar correlation will never be better than CO2, but regardless, that is a pathetic statistical analysis. He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.


Well said! +1

I love how real science often clears up confusing issues.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
509. MAweatherboy1
6:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
The CMC suggests we could start seeing tropical development off the Carolinas in as little as 48 hours:



Looks to peak around 96 hours:



Other models show the feature but are less aggressive and don't appear to have it reach TD status. Probably a long shot that it becomes a TD or TS but it's happened like that plenty of times before so we'll see.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
508. nigel20
6:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey nigel.

Hard to say. It probably was a tropical storm, with the strongest winds occurring in the thunderstorms well northeast of the center. We won't know for sure because recon never went out. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS...which are typically more bullish than others...only reached T2.4/34 knots (39 mph) before landfall. Surface observations weren't indicative of tropical storm strength either. But they did sound pretty confident the system was a tropical storm for a brief people of time based on that AMSU pass.

We'll see...in a few months.

Thanks for your reply...I really appreciate it.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
507. daddyjames
6:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey nigel.

Hard to say. It probably was a tropical storm, with the strongest winds occurring in the thunderstorms well northeast of the center. We won't know for sure because recon never went out. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS...which are typically more bullish than others...only reached T2.4/34 knots (39 mph) before landfall. Surface observations weren't indicative of tropical storm strength either. But they did sound pretty confident the system was a tropical storm for a brief people of time based on that AMSU pass.

We'll see...in a few months.


The NHC pretty much admitted last night in the TWDAT2 discussion that it most likely reached TS status just before landfall. Post-season evaluation will clarify this.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
506. TylerStanfield
6:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Though TD2 is on the verge of becoming an open trough, my belief is that the NHC will continue advisories on it as it is nearing reemergence over water and has the potential to reorganize and restrengthen. TD2 center is hard to find but is estimated to be east of Ciudad del Carmen. It's very ragged on satellite and still could be declared dissipated but it still has the potential to restrengthen and possibly become Barry over the next 36 hours.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1285
505. Birthmark
6:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting GTcooliebai:
By the way Environmental Science "Systems and Solutions" Third Edition has a similar chart in their textbook Figure 17-8. Which is by the way published material.

Here's what I found out about that book on Amazon:

"Publisher: Jones & Bartlett Publishers; Web-enhanced edition (October 17, 1997)"

That's ancient in terms of climate science. Of course, there may be updates.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
504. GTcooliebai
6:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Sometimes in those sorts of textbooks, they will provide a list of references and/or citations to charts and graphics, sometimes even sections of text. Do they provide this information for that graphic in that book?

Work backwards to find the original source.
I wish it would show but page 423 is not showing in this google books version. Link It's a variation in average global temperature over the past 20,000 years. Also shown is the IPCC's prediction for the next century. (Source: A.J. McMichael, Planetary Overload [Cambridge University Press, 1993] p. 84. Cambridge University Press.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
503. Levi32
6:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting ILwthrfan:


This is very true, but at the same time I can also test solar activity vs. the same temperature change to see if there is any correlation and guess what?



Correlation of plus .045. Which means there is absolutely no significant correlation or relationship between the change in temperatures we are seeing versus solar output of the sun. So the sun is not causing the unexplained warming we are seeing.

See we can keep building on this idea one idea at a time. :)



Source: Residual Analysis.


Solar correlation will never be better than CO2, but regardless, that is a pathetic statistical analysis. He didn't even try to take a mean over the 11-year solar cycle. If there's any correlation, it would show up in the cycle-independent solar trend, not the wild ups and downs of each individual cycle. It's no wonder his correlation is zero.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
502. nigel20
6:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


We won't need to bother with that...once it gets into the BOC & GOM. ;)

Yeah, it's still quite possible that we could get TS Barry.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
501. daddyjames
6:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Quoting SLU:


Yes James. What's the question?


I was reading up on the whole Indian Ocean Dipole index, based upon the discussion yesterday.

A positive IOD should not effect the overall activity, but have a negative impact on the intensity of the storms formed. At least based upon what I read in the 2011 summary of the hurricane season by Landsea.

My question is, what constitutes a positive IOD - as the chart in that publication (Fig. 16) has the IOD positive when the values are negative on the y-axis?

So, I am confused - as I would think that would be a negative IOD as JB is now commenting on.

Or am I confusing the index with measuring the dipole?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Holding steady so far compared to last year, will have to see if that holds.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6485
Quoting daddyjames:


That is one extreme - doesn't help if you advocate a complete overthrow of the existing economy.

The other extreme is doing nothing about it, or worse, doing more to exacerbate the situation.

Neither is healthy, or good. Meeting in the middle, and working together is the best way to go about things.

Can you say for certain that a complete overthrow of the existing economy isn't called for in the face of the seriousness of AGW? That seems unlikely.

Doing nothing is pretty much what we're doing now. It is, unsurprisingly, not working.

Meeting in the middle *might* be the right thing to do...but if meeting in the middle produces policies that aren't up to the task? It's highly probable that we only get one shot at this to avoid huge problems.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
If you asked a doctor, and also got 99 second opinions and 97 said you needed surgery, 2 were on the fence, and 1 said you were fine, What would you do?

If you were wondering if you should keep investing in the same company you have been investing in for years, and 97 of 100 indices and advisers say SELL, 2 say hold steady and 1 says BUY More, Do you say the indices are unclear, I should just keep buying more?

That is actually what the ratio is on climate change science. Skeptics are arguing for that 1%. While having both perspectives is good for science, Don't fall for the idea that it is a 50% split. Skeptics get to put in their 2 cents, when the other side gets $1.94. That is where the balance is right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Hey TA!
Do you think that TD 2 could be upgraded to a TS in post season analysis as Dr Masters alluded to earlier?

Hey nigel.

Hard to say. It probably was a tropical storm, with the strongest winds occurring in the thunderstorms well northeast of the center. We won't know for sure because recon never went out. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS...which are typically more bullish than others...only reached T2.4/34 knots (39 mph) before landfall. Surface observations weren't indicative of tropical storm strength either. But they did sound pretty confident the system was a tropical storm for a brief people of time based on that AMSU pass.

We'll see...in a few months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 547 - 497

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
61 °F
Partly Cloudy