TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting daddyjames:


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)
Quoting daddyjames:


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)
:o me?never lol XD just sometimes but come on everyone have at least wishcast sometime in their life.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Dude... it's only June. It's never favorable for any cyclones to develop at this time of year. You better want to wait until late-August.

Ok.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 62901IL:

It better, or I'll stop tracking the tropics.
Dude... it's only June. It's never favorable for any cyclones to develop at this time of year. You better want to wait until late-August.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting wxgeek723:


Go home you're drunk.

Whoa, whoa whoa. NONE of us are drunk on the blog. Not even me.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting CJ5:


You are really funny. I especially liked the above portions of your delusional opinion. When you have some time, post up your verifiable facts about Fox viewers. I would like to see that with my own eyes. LOL


Here's a link to a summary of the study he was probably referring to, though I think there have been others as well.

LINK

The conclusion:
Sunday morning news shows do the most to help people learn about current events, while some outlets, especially Fox News, lead people to be even less informed than those who say they don’t watch any news at all.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Go home you're drunk.
Sound like a hater to me... just saying.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Alright I get it now, thanks for teaming up, if you don't like what I post then ignore it. But I will keep posting charts from various scientists in all fields whether you like them or not.

Cliff Harris, creator of the graph you posted, is not a scientist.
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Quoting centex:
I wouldn't say that. Tropics are unpredictable and currently not forecasted to become B. I'm in camp it will because I don't see it as so weak and at 10-12 knots it may have time over more water than forecast track.

ok.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 62901IL:

It better, or I'll stop tracking the tropics.
I wouldn't say that. Tropics are unpredictable and currently not forecasted to become B. I'm in camp it will because I don't see it as so weak and at 10-12 knots it may have time over more water than forecast track.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL relax man plenty of season left, you're not going anywhere :D

yeah, probably.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting daddyjames:


No, I don't think that would be possible. Unless you want to survive by subsidence farming. Right now, our economy exists because we can ship goods, including food, around the world because of (relatively cheap) transportation costs.

A sudden change would be extremely disruptive, and financially painful.

A slow change, encouraging alternative fuels for transportation, and the building of that infrastructure would be wise - while the other is still functional.


I agree with all of this. I just don't think we have the time anymore. That's somewhat debatable, I realize, but the more I look at the breadth of data, the more it seems to me that this is going very much faster than was modeled and predicted. I think the IPCC is totally obsolete already, and we're starting to see major agricultural disruptions from the shifts in the jet stream and so on _now_.

I suspect the effects will speed up every year from here, and that until the ice cap is really dead, it will be more catastrophically chaotic than it is a steady shift toward hotter. We didn't really account for chaotic weather while the thing seeks a new equilibrium to dance around, that's already happening now.

I hope that I'm wrong. But I just don't think we really have the time to ease in anymore. I think we would have had to start that process 20 years ago. And at some point, the disruptions from climate change will overshadow the disruptions we'd face from quicker adaptation.
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Quoting 62901IL:

It better, or I'll stop tracking the tropics.
LOL relax man plenty of season left, you're not going anywhere :D
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Good thing I keep a good amount of this climate data available for just such an occasion...
Using the GISS data and PMOD solar data over the 1950-2012 timeframe, you get the following R^2 between solar activity and near-surface atmospheric temperature:
Yearly average: 0.0010
Pentadal average: 0.0184
Decadal average: 0.0321

So actually, there is no correlation, even with the data averaged over longer climatic periods to remove aspects of the solar cycle. The correlation is not zero because he didn't average out the solar cycle, apparently it is zero because there is not a correlation.

And, for what it's worth, the very very statistically insignificant trend lines show a negative relationship between solar and temperature over the last 60-ish years, meaning solar activity decreases have corresponded to temperature increases.


Some years ago, I did a little research to try and correlate high and low aurora borealis activity years with global temperature the following year. I used both total number of aurora days and most southerly latitude sightings. It was a very unscientific exercise, but absorbing, nonetheless.

Conclusion, the most active aurora years averaged 0.15C higher than the ten year average for the five years before and five years after maximum, and the least active years averaged 0.15C less, giving an absolute maximum of 0.3C between most and least active years.
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Quoting daddyjames:


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)

Who are the normal wishcasters on this blog?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cool story bro, tell it again.


Go home you're drunk.
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Quoting help4u:
Coldest start to artic summer on record.

You're going to get that kind of thing when you have a cyclone in the Arctic that lasts 25 days. Yet there has still been considerable melting. (About 2/3rds of the melt is coming from the bottom up, btw.)

Quoting help4u:
Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.

Nonsense.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting allancalderini:
Probably it will become Barry in the BOC.


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting allancalderini:
Probably it will become Barry in the BOC.

It better, or I'll stop tracking the tropics.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
579. SLU

Quoting daddyjames:


I was reading up on the whole Indian Ocean Dipole index, based upon the discussion yesterday.

A positive IOD should not effect the overall activity, but have a negative impact on the intensity of the storms formed. At least based upon what I read in the 2011 summary of the hurricane season by Landsea.

My question is, what constitutes a positive IOD - as the chart in that publication (Fig. 16) has the IOD positive when the values are negative on the y-axis?

So, I am confused - as I would think that would be a negative IOD as JB is now commenting on.

Or am I confusing the index with measuring the dipole?


The positive IOD occurs when warm water exists in the western Indian Ocean near the horn of Africa with cooler waters relative to normal forming in the east Indian Ocean near Sumatra. This generally tends to reduce the levels of activity in the MDR by weakening the west African monsoon circulation. e.g 2011

The negative IOD occurs when cool water exists in the western Indian Ocean near the horn of Africa with warmer waters relative to normal forming in the east Indian Ocean near Sumatra. This generally tends to enhance the levels of activity in the MDR by strengthening the west African monsoon circulation. e.g 2010.

In the graph on figure 16, the years with the positive IOD are indeed on the negative side of the y-axis and the strongly positive years since 1979 were 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2006, 2007 and 2011 and they all featured relatively slow MDR activity.

What JB said yesterday contradicts the assessment prepared by Landsea et al 2011 which is why his forecast of 17-5-1 will bust. Currently, the IOD is -0.4 caused by the significant cooling in the west Indian Ocean of late with warm water near Sumatra. This pattern will favour enhanced MDR activity and a more active Atlantic hurricane season.

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Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting wxgeek723:


Remember when you said "I don't think this could get a name" ?

Yeah neither do I.

Cool story bro, tell it again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics!
What's the weather like in PR at the moment?
We're drying out here in Jamaica after a pretty wet weekend.


Hi nigel. We are waiting for a Tropical Wave to arrive on Wednesday bringing scattered showers and some gusty winds. The recent dust has put a dent to the rainfall in the past 4 days.
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I think the circulation center is just offshore now......you can see it better in GOM Visible Loop
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
575. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:
b) Fox News is omnipresent in this county; and c) Fox News viewers are the most uninformed and/or misinformed of all mass media consumers. Those aren't my opinions they are simply verifiable truisms with abundant factual support...because there are numerous Collier residents who'd be perfectly happy to see the Everglades drained and paved over, all that icky and inconvenient wildlife hauled away, Naples' beaches shut off to public access to make way for even more multimillion dollar private homes, and the near Gulf waters pincushioned with oil rigs to help pay for tuition at the Community School and Buffy's third Maserati.


You are really funny. I especially liked the above portions of your delusional opinion. When you have some time, post up your verifiable facts about Fox viewers. I would like to see that with my own eyes. LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

True, which is why it won't become nearly as intense as Marco was. My main point was that the system wound up despite being very close to the coast.


Remember when you said "I don't think this could get a name" ?

Yeah neither do I.
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I maintain my thoughts from yesterday that former TD 2 will not become a TS in the BOC. Not quite enough time over favorable waters with its present state of organization for that. It could become a TD again though.

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Quoting allancalderini:
Even I can feel the effects of GW like I mention yesterday Honduras has become drier and warmer every year that pass.I remember when I was young almost all May was pure flooding :¨( oh that times.
Same with the weather here along FL. now I used to remember everyday afternoon thunderstorms caused by seabreeze collision that would work there way back to the west coast of FL. but it doesn't seem to do that anymore the steering from the Bermuda High could be one of the reasons why.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
We don't have Barry yet though, so cross your fingers TD 2 doesn't strengthen, so you'll have your chance at Chantal and Dorian being hurricanes.
Probably it will become Barry in the BOC.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Anyone who follows the weather avidly and denies global warming is, quite frankly, blind. It's so obvious and prevalent it's amazing to be an argument can even be mounted against it.

Sure enough, there won't be an argument anymore.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Anyone who follows the weather avidly and denies global warming is, quite frankly, blind. It's so obvious and prevalent it's amazing to be an argument can even be mounted against it.

Sure enough, there won't be an argument anymore.
Even I can feel the effects of GW like I mention yesterday Honduras has become drier and warmer every year that pass.I remember when I was young almost all May was pure flooding :¨( oh that times.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Last advisory for TD 2 will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated with a change from TD to LO.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

Hey Tropics!
What's the weather like in PR at the moment?
We're drying out here in Jamaica after a pretty wet weekend.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
IMHO there are two places where ongoing climate change will hit us very soon, concretely and *hard*:
- Simultaneous drought or rainfall excess in most of the world's cereal grain producing regions. The world currently has only about 2-3 months of grain reserves. We're one globally bad harvest away from mass starvation.
- Economic dislocation from a relatively sudden write-off of much of our coastal property and infrastructure. We probably won't see this one coming.
Quoting Autistic2:
I hear doom boom and doom about GW. How long before any of that would actually start to happen? I think many people with much money to lose wont do anything until they see something concrete.

Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
Quoting Tazmanian:



but Marco was a vary small storm

True, which is why it won't become nearly as intense as Marco was. My main point was that the system wound up despite being very close to the coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting allancalderini:
I would hate that Chantal form near the Carolinas.I want it and Dorian to be strong hurricanes.:D
We don't have Barry yet though, so cross your fingers TD 2 doesn't strengthen, so you'll have your chance at Chantal and Dorian being hurricanes.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the time being, at least. Let's see what happens over the next few hours as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

Marco was very close to the coastline as well and managed 55 knots:




Marco was a tiny circulation though, T.d 2 is a broad weak one.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The CMC suggests we could start seeing tropical development off the Carolinas in as little as 48 hours:



Looks to peak around 96 hours:



Other models show the feature but are less aggressive and don't appear to have it reach TD status. Probably a long shot that it becomes a TD or TS but it's happened like that plenty of times before so we'll see.
I would hate that Chantal form near the Carolinas.I want it and Dorian to be strong hurricanes.:D
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Quoting help4u:
Coldest start to artic summer on record.US fire season continues to be quietest on record contray to what some with agendas are telling you.Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.


A one season swing does not make or break a trend.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the time being, at least. Let's see what happens over the next few hours as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

Marco was very close to the coastline as well and managed 55 knots:




but Marco was a vary small storm
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The biggest risk is to people who already live in high risk areas anyway.

It lots of cases in the U.S. the risk is to places which should have had "build at your own risk" laws a generation ago, and most of them still haven't implemented such laws. Thank God Texas at least took the lead, following Ike. Nobody else seems to be following though.

New York is going with the NOLA option, and will be planning tens of billions of dollars worth of flood walls and levees. They will fail eventually, and cause even worse damage, however.
To me sea walls cause more flooding to occur especially during high tide and when waves breach over it and this is why sea level rises has me worried. NYC, Tampa Bay, NOLA, even outside of the US, I'll give you Guyana for example is already below sea level and they have been hit by some extreme flooding lately. All houses along the coastline should be forced to build on concrete stilt.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the time being, at least. Let's see what happens over the next few hours as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

Marco was very close to the coastline as well and managed 55 knots:


Agreed.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
Quoting wxchaser97:

...you know it will likely redevelop in the BOC right?

Oh yeah. Forgot.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Coldest start to artic summer on record.US fire season continues to be quietest on record contray to what some with agendas are telling you.Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The biggest risk is to people who already live in high risk areas anyway.

It lots of cases in the U.S. the risk is to places which should have had "build at your own risk" laws a generation ago, and most of them still haven't implemented such laws. Thank God Texas at least took the lead, following Ike. Nobody else seems to be following though.

New York is going with the NOLA option, and will be planning tens of billions of dollars worth of flood walls and levees. They will fail eventually, and cause even worse damage, however.


But this is not just a US problem. What about the entire South Pacific and Indian Ocean where several nations are already grappling with the effects?

Where are these people supposed to go? Many people say "we'll adapt" - and we will. But its going to be with a great amount of difficulty, with vast political ramifications, that - in all likelihood - will be extremely contentious.

Whether or not we like it, we are an increasingly connected world. That has its positives - but also its negatives.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Anyone who follows the weather avidly and denies global warming is, quite frankly, blind. It's so obvious and prevalent it's amazing to me an argument can even be mounted against it.

Sure enough, there won't be an argument anymore.
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Quoting 62901IL:

WOOHOO! Glad it's gone.

...you know it will likely redevelop in the BOC right?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Last advisory for TD 2 will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated with a change from TD to LO.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

For the time being, at least. Let's see what happens over the next few hours as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

Marco was very close to the coastline as well and managed 55 knots:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Last advisory for TD 2 will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated with a change from TD to LO.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

WOOHOO! Glad it's gone.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Last advisory for TD 2 will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated with a change from TD to LO.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
Global warming? How do we know how much sun was going on 4500 years ago versus now? Also, if people really cared about CO2 emissions, they'd plant more trees instead of cutting them down, right? Why blame people for CO2 when it's the fault of plants not feeding on enough of it. ;(
(silently waiting for the sound of hair-pulling)


HAHAHAHAHA!

You hear that, rainforest? It's all your fault for getting chopped down so people could feed more cattle!

I'm all for planting more trees, at least where it makes sense to do so. You do realize that what fossil fuels essentially are is old dead stuff from back loosely in the times of the dinosaurs and stuff, right? That has not been in the biosphere since it died and got covered up?

Once that's back in the biosphere, you can't just get it out again quickly through any means we know how to do right now. Plants store it until they burn or decompose, and then it's right back again. Once it is in the atmosphere, it circulates just like all _other_ carbon circulating around between the air and living things.

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The temprature at 62901 keeps going UP!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting ILwthrfan:


So do I need to calculate 11 solar year average into the total solar irradiance output and compute that vs. Temperature or CO2? What's a cycle independent solar trend.


the Sun's average output changes over time scales that are too long to actually measure, and "proxy data" can't say anything about that directly, because proxy data does not measure solar output, but only what was actually received at ground level. i.e. disrupted by sulfur compounds or other anti-greenhouse agents, or ehanced by greenhouse agents.

Since scientific measurement of the Sun is only about 200 years old, any claims of what it did prior to that are conjecture.

Existing stellar models suggest the Sun gets about 10% hotter for every billion years of time, but because of positive albedo feedbacks and other forcings, a change of less than 1% in the Sun could still easily cause several degrees worth of change on Earth.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
New evacuation zones for New York City

BY DANA RUBINSTEIN
12:04 pm Jun. 18, 2013

As Hurricane Sandy was bearing down on New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered the evacuation of all low-lying neighborhoods encompassed in the city's "Zone A," the most vulnerable of three evacuation zones in New York City.

Today, the mayor announced that Zones A, B and C have been replaced with a six-part, numbered evacuation zone system that includes 37 percent of the city's population, 175 New York City housing authority projects, 25 hospitals and 69 nursing homes.

That's 600,000 more New Yorkers, 26 more projects, four more hospitals and nine more nursing homes than contained in the original maps that were operational during the storm. (Zones A, B and C included 2.39 million people. The new zones include 2.99 million.)
...
The zones are, according to the release, "based on coastal flood risk resulting from storm surge %u2013 the %u201Cdome%u201D of ocean water propelled by the winds and low barometric pressure of a hurricane; the geography of the city%u2019s low-lying neighborhoods; and the accessibility of these neighborhoods by bridge and roads."
...
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/20 13/06/8531042/if-you-live-new-york-city-theres-now -1-3-chance-youre-evacuation-zo
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Quoting Birthmark:

It's quite possible that a fair amount of doom could happen very, very soon --within a few years.


The biggest risk is to people who already live in high risk areas anyway.

It lots of cases in the U.S. the risk is to places which should have had "build at your own risk" laws a generation ago, and most of them still haven't implemented such laws. Thank God Texas at least took the lead, following Ike. Nobody else seems to be following though.

New York is going with the NOLA option, and will be planning tens of billions of dollars worth of flood walls and levees. They will fail eventually, and cause even worse damage, however.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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