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Extreme Jet Stream Pattern Triggers Historic European Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on June 09, 2013

A historic multi-billion dollar flood disaster has killed at least eighteen people in Central Europe after record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia over the past two weeks. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit the highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher. The Danube is expected to crest in Hungary's capital city of Budapest on June 10 at the highest flood level on record, 35 cm higher than the record set in 2006. The flooding was caused by torrential rains that fell on already wet soils. In a 2-day period from May 30 - June 1, portions of Austria received the amount of rain that normally falls in two-and-half months: 150 to 200 mm (5.9 to 7.9"), with isolated regions experiencing 250 mm (9.8"). This two-day rain event had a greater than 1-in-100 year recurrence interval, according to the Austrian Meteorological Agency, ZAMG. Prior to the late May rains, Austria had its seventh wettest spring in 150 years, which had resulted in the ground in the region becoming saturated, leading to greater runoff when the rains began.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the flooded Danube River in Deggendorf, Germany on Friday, June 7, 2013. (AP Photo/Armin Wegel)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Grein, Austria was barely kept in check by a floodwall built by IBS Engineering. Image credit: IBS Engineering.

Floods caused by a blocking high pressure system
The primary cause of the torrential rains over Central Europe during late May and early June was large loop in the jet stream that developed over Europe and got stuck in place. A "blocking high" set up over Northern Europe, forcing two low pressure systems, "Frederik" and "Günther", to avoid Northern Europe and instead track over Central Europe. The extreme kink in the jet stream ushered in a strong southerly flow of moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean Sea over Central Europe, which met up with colder air flowing from the north due to the stuck jet stream pattern, allowing "Frederik" and "Günther" to dump 1-in-100 year rains. The stuck jet stream pattern also caused record May heat in northern Finland and surrounding regions of Russia and Sweden, where temperatures averaged an astonishing 12°C (21°F) above average for a week at the end of May. All-time May heat records--as high as 87°F--were set at stations north of the Arctic Circle in Finland.


Figure 3. Nine-day rainfall amounts in portions of Southern Germany and Western Austria exceeded 12" (305 mm.) Image credit: ZAMG.

If it seems like getting two 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods in eleven years is a bit suspicious--well, it is. Those recurrence intervals are based on weather statistics from Earth's former climate. We are now in a new climate regime with more heat and moisture in the atmosphere, combined with altered jet stream patterns, which makes major flooding disasters more likely in certain parts of the world, like Central Europe. As I discussed in a March 2013 post, "Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?", research published this year by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in German found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in August 2002, during Central Europe's last 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year flood. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. According to German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, "Planetary wave [jet stream] amplitudes have been very high in the last few weeks; we think this plays a role in the current German flooding event." More rains are in store for the flood area through Monday, then the blocking pattern responsible for the great 2013 Central European flood is expected to disintegrate, resulting in a return to more typical June weather for the next two weeks.


Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 1980, July 2011, and the last twelve days of May 2013. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S. (the 4th warmest month in U.S. history), and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Late May 2013 was also very extreme, resulting the great Central European floods of 2013. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov and Stefan Rahmstorf.

Links
Stefan Rahmstorf's blog (translated from German) on the unusual jet stream patterns that caused the Central European floods of 2013.

NASA has high-resolution MODIS satellite images showing the flooding of the Elbe River in Germany.

My April 2013 post, "Unusually cold spring in Europe and the Southeast U.S. due to the Arctic Oscillation", has a good summary of recent unusual jet stream patterns and the science behind them.


Video 1. Climate, Ice, and Weather Whiplash: In this June 3, 2013 video by the Yale Climate Forum's Peter Sinclair, Rutgers' Jennifer Francis and Weather Underground's Jeff Masters explore the 'Why?' of two years of mirror images of weather across North America.

I'm in Granby, Colorado this week for the American Geophysical Union's Chapman Conference on Climate Change Communication. Many of the talks will be webcast live; you can see a list of the talks (times in MDT) here. My talk, "The Weather Underground Experience," is scheduled for Monday at 4:30 pm MDT. I'll give a 15-minute overview of the history of wunderground, and what I've learned about communicating weather and climate change information along the way. There is live tweeting going on from the conference, #climatechapman. My blog updates this week may be somewhat random as a result of the conference, but I'm not seeing anything in the tropics worthy of discussion at this point.

Jeff Masters

June 9, 2013. Flood (Danube)
Budapest 2013/06/09 06:35 CEST. Flood. The ninth day
June 9, 2013.  Flood
"Welcome on board?" (barbamz)
Certainly no embarkments today ...

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1791. Torito
93E looks slightly worse than yesterday.



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This is what 3.70" of rain in 45 minutes did in Mount Dora yesterday. Road got washed out.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good morning!

Evening...



@Earth_Pics
12 hours in 1 photo
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
MJO is coming back around to our basin by the end of the month.

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Persistence prevails.

Orlando
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Good morning!
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1785. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.


As people become more knowledgeable about the weather, they will become less reliant on these discussions from those websites and thus the owners of these websites will find it less beneficial to charge for the same information available for free elsewhere.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Don't they all get the info from NOAA? Why pay for it when NOAA gives it away for free.


Agree,You only have to go to the site that has the models with the animations and to the NHC site.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16101
TS Yagi off the coast of Japan.

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Good Morning to Grothar.........Take your time and recover fully.......Plenty of time to activate the Grocon Blob Scale in a few weeks.
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Good Morning Folks. Tropical Atlantic quiet this morning so the main topic of interest today for Conus is the potential for severe weather in the upper mid-west.

From the Wunderground entry portal:

Areas from northern Illinois through western Ohio are at moderate risk of a widespread severe weather event, mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes, from Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Major cities in this moderate risk area include Chicago, Indianapolis, Columbus, and Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Here is the latest GFS jet stream plot for today; right over the above-mentioned areas:

Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.


Don't they all get the info from NOAA? Why pay for it when NOAA gives it away for free.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
1778. Skyepony (Mod)
Environment Pollution in Ecuador on Wednesday, 12 June, 2013 at 05:31 (05:31 AM) UTC.
Description
An oil spill in the Ecuadorean Amazon is flowing downstream towards Peru and Brazil, heightening concerns about the impact of drilling in one of the world's last remaining wildernesses. About 1.6m litres of crude was discharged into a tributary of the Amazon from the Trans-Ecuador pipeline, which was ruptured by a landslide on 31 May. The slick contaminated the drinking supplies of Coca, a gateway city into the Amazon forest. Local media reported that 60,000 people had to rely on water brought in by 65 tankers. Petroecuador, the pipeline operator, has hired the US clearup company Clean Caribbean & Americas, which was involved in the operation after the Gulf of Mexico spill. Although the company and local authorities tried to contain the slick with a boom, some of the oil entered the Napo river, which flows across the border. Last week Peru reported traces of the oil in its Amazon region of Loreto, prompting an apology from the Ecuadorean president, Rafael Correa. The Peruvian environment minister, Manuel Pulgar Vidal, described the slick as a "very serious problem" and said Peru could seek compensation if the damage proved extensive. Brazil, which is located many hundreds of miles downstream, has put its navy on alert and offered technical assistance. "Brazil has offered aid to Ecuador and Peru to support the work of containment and dispersion of the oil slick in the two countries," the foreign ministry said in a statement. The environment of Ecuador, the smallest member of Opec, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has long suffered from the oil industry. In 2011 the country's courts ruled that the US oil firm Chevron should pay $8.6bn in compensation for the dumping of about 7bn litres of waste over several decades. The latest slick is not large by comparison, but it comes at a sensitive time in an area of immense ecological wealth. With the oil fields now largely owned and operated by domestic state-run companies, the government plans to ramp up production in the Amazon to fund an ambitious development programme and repay loans from China. Its plans have been opposed by indigenous groups and environmental campaigners.
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Quoting Objectivist:
There is in fact a good bit of observation and fact behind my statement.
Well, then, by all means please produce it. And true scientific data from peer-reviewed literature only, please; no fantasy blog ramblings and graphs from debunked types like Spencer. I'll be standing by. Thanks!
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Looks like Crown weather is charging for his discussions now. $9.95 a month.Link


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16101
what did i tell you a couple yrs ago ike about characters spamming the blog. now they want to reap the rewards.
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1774. Skyepony (Mod)
Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Wednesday, 12 June, 2013 at 03:11 (03:11 AM) UTC.
Description
A wildfire charged through the Black Forest area northeast of Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, igniting several large houses as its flames threatened a neighborhood set in dense forest where some home values top $1 million. A thick plume of gray smoke could be seen from Denver, about 65 miles to the north. Video from a helicopter showed flames engulfing several large homes. Homes in the Black Forest area are on sites between 2 to 5 acres each. Cathedral Pines, a neighborhood with several pricey homes with views of Pikes Peak, is among the areas evacuated because of the blaze. CBS Station KCNC Colorado reported that based on Copter 4's video, it looked like at least 10 homes were burned. Fire managers requested aerial firefighting resources, and the Air Force Academy was among those sending ground resources to help fight the flames.

A U.S. Forest Service official in Golden, Mike Stearly, said an air tanker from Nevada will be coming to battle the blaze but is unsure when it will arrive. He told CBS4: "We are a little disconnected with the immediate information on ground, but we are focusing on the protection of people at this time. Things are hot and heavy here at the coordination center." There were no immediate reports of injuries in the Black Forest Fire, said Lt. Jeff Kramer of the El Paso County sheriff's department. He didn't know how many homes had been evacuated. Kramer said it was too soon to say what caused the blaze. He said residents were being notified to leave by automated phone calls and in some cases in-person visits from sheriff's deputies. "To protect life is certainly the ultimate priority here," Kramer said.

The Black Forest Fire was one of at least three significant wildfires burning in Colorado amid gusty winds and record-breaking hot, dry weather. A fire burning on an estimated 300 acres south of the Royal Gorge Bridge and Arkansas River led to the evacuation of the Royal Gorge Bridge and Park near Canon City, the Bureau of Land Management said. Park spokeswoman Peggy Gair told The Gazette the evacuations affected several hundred people at the park, which closed Tuesday afternoon. Evacuations also were in effect from Parkdale to Soda Point, north of the Royal Gorge, the BLM said.
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1773. Skyepony (Mod)
I got a friend in CO that has been out of her house since yesterday afternoon from this Black Forest Fire..

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1772. ncstorm
Good Morning.severe weather set up today and tomorrow looks bad..everyone stay safe..
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Looks like Crown weather is charging for his discussions now. $9.95 a month.Link
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Good morning everybody.

Am I correct in thinking this blowup...



is connected with this feature talked about in the TWD?

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 22N IN CUBA
TO 28N IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA.

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I can relate, have had 3 Heart Attacks, the first was very bad. Best wish and hopes for a full recovery to Grothar!


Hmmm...seems as though a lot of folks on here are heart attack survivors. I hope I'm not increasing my chances of having one by following this site!

Best wishes to Grothar and all the other survivors.
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Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi2 min
12z GFS Fri map raking coastal areas with gales from N Jersey to Cape Cod. power outages possible 2-4 inch rains Link
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1767. Torito
Right from NASA:

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1766. Torito
Yay Gro! The blob I posted yesterday must have helped, heres another one! Get well soon, Gro. We are all praying for your recovery.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.


Great news.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16101
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.

2,587,234,123 (could also mean Grothar's age)

Thanks for the update
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
Quoting Neapolitan:
The opinions you stated in that first paragraph are fine so long as you clarify that they are indeed your opinion, and so long as you and everyone else realize they're supported by neither observation, fact, logic, nor 97% of active climate scientists.

There is in fact a good bit of observation and fact behind my statement. There is also logic and science, given the lack of observed climate sensitivity to CO2 for over the last decade and more. Even the New York Times is running articles discussing why global warming has flatlined.

As to the "97% of climate scientists" canard, that is #1 not true, and #2 not relevant. Good science has never been about "consensus", in fact every major scientific advance involves breaking the existing consensus.


So far as the second paragraph goes: the drop in US carbon dioxide emissions was caused by a number of things. Many plants switching to (currently) cheaper natural gas was part of it. So was a lack of demand caused by the lagging economy, conservation efforts, and a focus on renewables. But natural gas is only a temporary stopgap; even were leaks of methane not a problem--which they most assuredly are--there's the simple fact that switching from one dirty, CO2-emitting, heat-causing, non-renewable energy source to another dirty, CO2-emitting, heat-causing, non-renewable energy source is really just throwing the bailed water back in the boat.

You're making a mistake equating coal and natural gas as equally dirty. They're not - natural gas doesn't release particulates, mercury or radiation when burned.
The methane leaks are in the noise, and further may be mitigated.

My "unwavering support for nuclear power"? Ain't gonna happen until fusion replaces fission. See: Fukushima.

What is the death toll from Fukushima radiation again?

Nuclear is by all accounts the safest form of large-scale power generation. Fossil fuel accounts for somewhere around 200,000 deaths PER YEAR.

Further, you warmist alarmists need to prioritize. If CAGW is a huge problem that's about to end civilization as we know it, an inexpensive, zero CO2 power generation solution like nuclear is a no-brainer.

Pie in the sky "green" solutions aren't going to make a significant dent anytime soon. Wind is a joke in particular. One other thing that made me laugh outright was the environmentalists getting a five year moratorium on solar projects in the Mojave Desert to protect lizards. Yeah, the Green movement is all about practicality!

Use your brain.

My "unwavering support for...fracking"? Ain't gonna happen, period. See: Gasland. Also, the second half of my second paragraph above.

LOL...so your opposition to fracking is based on a highly fictionalized movie? Figures...

In the real world, fracking has been shown to have very little downside, for huge benefits. US energy independence is coming, it's only fifty years overdue...
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1761. barbamz
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.


Great news! Thank you, Geoff. Hope to see our famous senior soon on WU.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 81 Comments: 9378
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.
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1759. pcola57
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning!


Somewhere in Saxony-Anhalt. Photo dpa

The Local: Death toll rises as floods roll northward
Published: 12 Jun 13 10:24 CE

New video on Spiegel online
It's showing:
a) the flooded little old town Lauenburg at Elbe River; video was recorded by a drone. Waters are receding only very slowly.
b) the town Hitzacker which is protected by a mobile wall; but they have to clear the waters of drifting woods which could damage the wall
c) regions farther south (upstreams) in Saxony-Anhalt where the levees breached earlier. Still new evacuations are underway.

Have a nice day everyone! I hope the forecast of a derecho won't pan out.



Thank You for the update on the flooding sorrows Barb..
Hope your day goes well.. :)
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1758. barbamz
Good morning!


Somewhere in Saxony-Anhalt. Photo dpa

The Local: Death toll rises as floods roll northward
Published: 12 Jun 13 10:24 CE

New video on Spiegel online
It's showing:
a) the flooded little old town Lauenburg at Elbe River; video was recorded by a drone. Waters are receding only very slowly.
b) the town Hitzacker which is protected by a mobile wall; but they have to clear the waters of drifting woods which could damage the wall
c) regions farther south (upstreams) in Saxony-Anhalt where the levees breached earlier. Still new evacuations are underway as waters are flowing very far inland.



Source of the map

Have a nice day everyone! I hope the forecast of a derecho won't pan out.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 81 Comments: 9378
1757. beell


Probabilistic Wind (click image for all Outlook graphics)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO IND AND WRN
OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA EWD ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO VA/MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT...ERN
ID...AND NRN WY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM IA INTO WV...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
IA/MO/IL BY 00Z...AND WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN IA/NRN IL BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO LOWER MI DURING
THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING NWD ACROSS PA INTO THUR MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING FROM OH
SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER THUR MORNING.

TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IA/WY/MT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING DAYTIME STORMS THERE.

...IA...IL AND SRN WI EARLY AFTERNOON INTO IND...OH...NRN KY AND FAR
SRN MI DURING THE EVENING...
MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND
VICINITY...WITH SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE WITH A
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO THE E. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT E OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL. INITIALLY...SOME OF THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SUPERCELLS...AND A STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR. WITH TIME...AND
PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER. INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A DERECHO CAPABLE OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION MAY
ALSO EXIST PERIODICALLY...INDICATING EITHER TORNADOES OR ENHANCED
SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN.

MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WILL BE FROM
NRN IL INTO NRN AND CNTRL IND AND INTO OH. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
GROWS LARGER THAN EXPECTED...OTHER AREAS COULD BE UNDER A GREATER
THREAT SUCH AS NRN KY...WV...AND WRN PA.

...SRN MI INTO OH...WV...WRN PA LATE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER IL AT THIS TIME...A BROAD
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN
LOWER MI INTO OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WHICH WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.

...SRN IL AND IND INTO WRN KY DURING THE EVENING...
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EITHER NEAR THE FRONT OR
ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW...IS MOST LIKELY TO BE FROM SRN IL INTO WRN KY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS...AND PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER S AS IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE.

...VA INTO THE DELMARVA - AFTERNOON...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE
OH VALLEY SYSTEM...WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONDITIONALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA AS THE MAIN SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS OH
AND WRN PA. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REASSESS AS NEW DATA
INCLUDING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BECOME AVAILABLE.

...MT...ERN ID...NRN WY...
DAYTIME HEATING...COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR WITH SMALL BOWING CELLS. GIVEN BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 06/12/2013
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@AstroKarenN Karen L. Nyberg
The Southern Andes.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
Morning

The atlantic basin is showing very little in the form of tropical development this morning. most of the reliable models are showing tropicalevelopment ,the next 10 days. That being said there is an interesting toical wave in the catl ,near 12n 47w.conditions around the wave continues o be hostile for cyclogenesis. however there are indications that the south westerly wind shear is relaxing and the normal conditions for tropical development are showing signs of coming into place
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NWS Medford ‏@NWSMedford
http://ow.ly/i/2l7NV Crater Lake could see some light snow accumulation Thursday morning. Less than an inch is expected. #orwx #cawx
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
Quoting bigwes6844:
Lots of purple and a little in central america near the Caribbean. Lots of activity in the Indian ocean and near asia


2%??



Bay of Bengal?? No invests there
South China Sea between Philippines and Vietnam and China is Invest 99W


99W looks to be going towards Hong Kong.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
Quoting zampaz:


I'm here:)




Stay safe dude
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16036
with that im out goodnight everyone and have a great day !
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Quoting Civicane49:
Well I'm out for now. Good night everyone.
night civicane
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Well I'm out for now. Good night everyone.
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Quoting barbamz:


Blog is slow right now. So I may add something on this off topic stuff as Luisport didn't respond until now.
I've just read on EuroNews that f.e. the singer Maria Farantouri (the "Joan Baez of the Mediterranean world") protested against austerity in Greece which now has caused a sudden shut down of public TV. I've been in Greece for about a dozen times; it's somehow my favourite country. I know the language a little bit, something about it's history and it's great music, and I'm so sorry for them, though I've experienced some of their issues with spending money as well. And, by the way, they've got exciting weather there.
Last year I've spent many months on the internet to figure out who is the real culprit for the economical problems in (southern) Europe: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal (where I guess our Luisport is from) - all those are really great (!) countries I've visited several times, and I appreciate and admire them a lot (pics from my last travels, including Lisbon in Portugal, are on my WU-photos). I've tried to learn the language of those countries, but - I have to confess - Portuguese was a bit too difficult for me. Moreover I've failed to get a clear insight in these economic issues, and the specialists somehow fail as well; everyone seems to have a different opinion.
So I just want to greet Greece and Portugal, which has a really hard time too, as I know.

Here is a weather related song from the above mentioned great singer Maria Farantouri from Greece (I've chosen a video with english subheads): "To the little north wind" (which now may blow in some regions of the US as well):

Hi I'm Portuguese! We just hate Merkel and Shauble, not german people. ;D
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Lots of purple and a little in central america near the Caribbean. Lots of activity in the Indian ocean and near asia
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Have a good sleep. Looks like we're not fishing tonight.


Lindy
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1745. zampaz
Nytol! Be lurking y'all up tomorrow.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!
night HHJ
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nasty cells at 430 am!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!


Night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Afternoon clouds over Southwest Puerto Rico
Storm clouds gathering over Half Dome
Sierra snow
snowman at Yosemite Falls