Tropical Storm Andrea hits Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:19 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall near 5:40 pm EDT in the Big Bend region of Florida as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Andrea had a busy day Thursday in Florida, dumping heavy rains, spawning ten tornadoes, and bringing a storm surge of up to 4.5' to the coast. While the Hurricane Hunters did measure sustained winds of 65 mph over the ocean shortly before landfall, very few land stations recorded sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, 39 mph. Here are some of the higher winds measured at coastal stations:

A personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola had sustained winds of 46 mph at 10 am EDT.
Cedar Key had sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, at 3:43 pm EDT.
Punta Gorda had sustained winds of 37, gusting to 58, at 1:04 pm EDT.
St. Petersburg topped out at 34 mph, gusting to 48 mph, at 10:23 am EDT.

Two sets of tornadic rain bands moved through West Florida on Thursday, one between 2 am and 5 am, and the other between 10 am and 3 pm, spawning a total of five suspected tornadoes. The first band produced two EF-0 tornadoes: one with 75 mph winds that hit Myakka City, damaging 3 homes and 10 other buildings, and one with 80 mph winds that cut throughout the heart of Sun City, causing minor damage. NWS damage surveys will be occurring Friday in Fort Myers, Venice, Clearwater, and Gulfport to check out the damage swaths of the other three suspected tornadoes.

The Florida East Coast was hit by five suspected tornadoes. Only one caused an injury, a tornado that hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT. Two other tornadoes were reported in Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and two more were reported in coastal areas near the Georgia border.

Here are the highest storm surge values as of 7:00 pm EDT:

3.2' at Tampa (at McKay Bay Entrance)
2.5' at Clearwater Beach (near St. Petersburg)
4.5' at Cedar Key


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 1pm EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013. At the time, Andrea had top winds of 60 mph and was 5.7 hours away from landfall in Florida's Big Bend. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. NASA animation of Andrea satellite images. More cool NASA images of Andrea are here.

The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer
Andrea's formation in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been fifteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to 6 in the 19-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken on June 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 92L in the Central Atlantic headed towards the Lesser Antilles
Satellite images show that a large and unusually well-organized tropical wave for so early in the season has developed in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has a modest degree of spin and heavy thunderstorms. NHC designated this system 92L Thursday afternoon. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is ripping up the thunderstorms in 92L as they form, though, and wind shear is predicted to increase to 30 - 40 knots Thursday night through Monday, making development unlikely. The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night.

Jeff Masters

Street Flooding from Andrea (VarietyWorkshopRkstr)
Tropical Storm Andrea dumps rains in Treasure Island/St. Pete Beach, Fla., leaves street flooding behind.
Street Flooding from Andrea
Tropical Storm Andrea churns things up at Clearwater Beach, Fla.
Surf's Up!

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Any chance of 92L forming after 48 hours? the NHC gives it a near 0% chance of forming in the next 48 hours...
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450. SuzK
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z










What IS that thing??? Super-yikes!
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Well, looks like Andrea wants to make my weekend wet... :|
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my character nailed this one its about time. how did the character do it. took and passed 101 atlantic cyclone climateology
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.


Good morning Kori and the rest. Yes,I agree with this but there is a new wave that was introduced at 06z behind 92L that may also help on that.
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update!
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What would Presslord say?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. ANDREA HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
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443. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST June 7 2013
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) near 14.0N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA
...ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

5:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 7
Location: 32.4°N 80.7°W
Moving: NE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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New blog if anyone's still up to read it.
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look at that little band near Bonita Springs FL
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Can,t complain about the weather in Soo Cal....low 80's and now dropping into the 50's and dry,not much humidity....could be 104 and 74
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Thats good sleeping or you know what weather.
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Andrea circulation off GA coast?
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Weather at Wrightsville Beach, NC really went downhill with the last band of rain. Winds gusting probably 40-45 mph
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has to be a way...ask a mod when we see one....everybody has avatars
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is one still allowed to upload a new avatar? I didnt see where one could in settings........anybody?
i havent been able to upload either an avatar or any photos, even emailed help havent gotten reply yet
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We had Igor,Julia and Karl when i joined the blog in 2010.
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I must be blocked by everybody!
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Is one still allowed to upload a new avatar? I didnt see where one could in settings........anybody?
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Quoting allancalderini:
What I remember in 2005 were some waves that not only produce 1 system it produce two.Like Franklin and Gert and Alpha and Beta.


Maybe the GFS system in 12 days
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.
What I remember in 2005 were some waves that not only produce 1 system it produce two.Like Franklin and Gert and Alpha and Beta.
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And the bloggers are recovering from the last 24 hours.
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It's midnight in Soo Cal
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Does anyone know of a good site for weekly rainfall totals for the cities of Florida?....as opposed to checking for each one, one at a time?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z










I was gonna say,what's the CMC say? but don't think it goes out that far....lol
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I wonder if the southern portion of the tropical wave associated with Invest 92L won't develop into Cosme in the East Pacific in about a week? This isn't really based on anything but simple extrapolation and educated guessing, but it's a possibility given the tenacity of the wave.
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Going to bed now even though I don't want to because I'm concerned a random tornado will come out of nowhere, lol. Night.

Wrote a blog earlier for those that didn't see it:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New blog, if you wish to read.

Tropical Storm Andrea moves ashore; Invest 92L and the outlook for the rest of June
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
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Quoting JRRP:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

"It's dead, Jim". Too bad it will never get the name it richly deserved. Only the fish will remember it now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Gotta admit you are farther from a desert than I am. Didn't know there were armadillos in Alabama. :)

Me either, until I started investigating the source of those mini-canyons in the backyard. They are nocturnal, so it took several nights of no sleep and about 20 rounds of 00 buck before I mostly cleaned them out of the woods behind the yard. Their buddies apparently passed the word along about this armed, angry Yankee's yard, because they never troubled me much after the massacre. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
419. JRRP

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I think Andrea was well on her way to subtropical upon landfall. Dry air intrusion quickly invaded South FL.

It invaded Alabama also. We had a nice healthy squall line headed our way from Mississippi. It hit the Alabama dry slot and literally dissolved on radar within two hours. The area east and south of Atlanta sure don't have much dry air. It's been raining there all day, as Andrea's left side seems to have hardly moved.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
If anyone would like a free weather widget for there blog, just go >> HERE <<

Find more about Weather in Jacksonville, Florida, United States Of America
Weather Forecast

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Quoting sar2401:

Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.


Lol. Gotta admit you are farther from a desert than I am. Didn't know there were armadillos in Alabama. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's what I miss the most about El Paso. And watching the moon race across the sky and set behind the mountains. I think I may be a desert person at heart. Boy am I far from home. Lol.

Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
Andrea is not lookin so hot now I think 5am will be her last advisory but I can never tell with extropical transitions
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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS 00z









So, the GFS has a low that develops in the Gulf of Honduras on the 17th, and slowly meanders up into the Gulf, where it spins contently up to the 20th, 13 days from now.

I wonder how long it will be before the GFS has 30 day models? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
I think Andrea was well on her way to subtropical upon landfall. Dry air intrusion quickly invaded South FL.
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Quoting sar2401:

Yes, it works well enough, although I think you'd have an easier time using the classic.wunderground link I gave you. I really hate the new site layout, so I'll use the old one for as long as WU keeps it up. BTW, I'm using a seven year old laptop, so I don't have the lastest and greatest in technology either. I'm also 67, so I'm not a computer whiz kid.

Lived in California for 40 years. I always loved the desert, but Death Valley in particular. I love Alabama but do miss the wide open spaces of the desert sometimes.


That's what I miss the most about El Paso. And watching the moon race across the sky and set behind the mountains. I think I may be a desert person at heart. Boy am I far from home. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
No way around a TUTT, adios 92L.

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Don't be a star
Stay where you are
Or be a victim of...
The Curse of the Creeping Supercells

Take care in NC and SC.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms exhibiting rotation are moving northwest towards the shoreline. These should pass south of me, but I'm sure I'll see closer calls overnight..

You got a knack for this stuff, 13. Too bad it's not day light.
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Quoting spathy:
sar24
Thats a cool pic of Death Valley.
Do you live near there?

Change of subject would be nice and I will work around quoting.


Does this work?

Yes, it works well enough, although I think you'd have an easier time using the classic.wunderground link I gave you. I really hate the new site layout, so I'll use the old one for as long as WU keeps it up. BTW, I'm using a seven year old laptop, so I don't have the lastest and greatest in technology either. I'm also 67, so I'm not a computer whiz kid.

Lived in California for 40 years. I always loved the desert, but Death Valley in particular. I love Alabama but do miss the wide open spaces of the desert sometimes.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17379
407. Skyepony (Mod)
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PARTS OF SC/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070449Z - 070545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL PARTS OF
SC AND NC AFTER 05Z...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.


DISCUSSION...OFFSHORE SUPERCELLS ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE BROADER
NERN QUADRANT OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST MAY BE ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY AS CELLS
APPROACH THE SHORE. INLAND DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED
OWING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SFC PRESSURE FALLS
LEADING THE CENTER OF ANDREA MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SFC WINDS
POTENTIALLY ATTAIN MORE OF AN ESELY COMPONENT. LTX VWP DATA INDICATE
A LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SUPPORTING OVER 300 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM
SRH...AND THIS COULD YIELD STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH A
TORNADO THREAT INVOF THE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/07/2013
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I just posted another one of my detailed tropical Atlantic blog posts for you late-nighters....stay safe if you are in the path of Andrea!
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GFS 00z








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Storms exhibiting rotation are moving northwest towards the shoreline. These should pass south of me, but I'm sure I'll see closer calls overnight..

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401, you are welcome. :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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