Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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1224. cg2916
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TXNT24 KNES 061946
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 14.0N

D. 46.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


Where do you find this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746


More recent moving WNW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TXNT24 KNES 061946
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 14.0N

D. 46.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
Yep..looks like they're not gonna classify it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17629
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Torito:
My F5 key will be gone and i will have to set internet explorer to refresh every 30 seconds by the end of this season........


IE is for Re-Re's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TXNT24 KNES 061946
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 14.0N

D. 46.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1216. cg2916
Quoting sar2401:

Actually, I think you're right. I wouldn't normally trash talk the NHC, but I can imagine the forecasters thinking that 92L was going to disappear, and they had a bigger fish to fry. If this continues to develop, it will be interesting to hear the reasoning of it not becoming an invest yesterday, regardless of what the shear would allegedly do to it.


I think you're right. I think that because all the winds were pretty concentrated in one quadrant, that probably needs to be fixed before it gets renumbered.
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1214. zampaz
Quoting aislinnpaps:


If you stay, pay the ten dollars for a year of membership. *S*

Thia stuff is a bargain at any price...
Dr. Masters provided some free memberships and I lucked out. wunderground has my donation next year though...
-z
I lurk the wunderground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's incredibly ironic 2010 also had a central Atlantic wave that may have qualified as a tropical cyclone dubbed 92L.


Yeah, 92L's tend to be North Atlantic naked swirls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting notanotherwrong:
another great forcast for daytona....... well they predicted 5 to 10 inches of rain here with 20 to 40mph winds with higher gusts.... so far since yesterday afternoon we have had 1.45 inches of rain and a high wind gust of 11mph and its all over now according to radar... once again another total goofed up forcast its worse here every afternoon with daily t storms

According to this map over 5" of rain so far in Daytona.

Link
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1211. sar2401
Quoting yqt1001:


Lesser Antilles. The earliest possible time it could be Barry would mean TS watches now (about 10 hours or so). NHC must've realized they couldn't ignore the wave and hope for it to dissipate like they were. :P

Actually, I think you're right. I wouldn't normally trash talk the NHC, but I can imagine the forecasters thinking that 92L was going to disappear, and they had a bigger fish to fry. If this continues to develop, it will be interesting to hear the reasoning of it not becoming an invest yesterday, regardless of what the shear would allegedly do to it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
C'mon NHC..Don't do this to us..Can get two June storms pleeeeeease.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17629
1209. zawxdsk
I'd put my money on a pass for at least 6 hours. We're high class here, so I'll wager IBC cream sodas.

Quoting Andrebrooks:
I think there will be a special advisory out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's incredibly ironic 2010 also had a central Atlantic wave that may have qualified as a tropical cyclone dubbed 92L.


In June.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24549
I think there will be a special advisory out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What a mess

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting Torito:
Maybe, shear means nothing this year....... .-.


Wind shear is wind shear. It kills storms. However, if other factors are super favourable, its effects may be counteracted. Vertical instability has been below average in the western Atlantic, the past two years, resulting in storms failing to intensify as predicted.

If vertical instability is above average, this could partly counteract the effects of shear. No idea what the situation with vertical instability is at the moment, though.
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1203. HCW
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I'll throw in two more, considering the plus comments. :) You five, send me an address in wumail and I'll get you a soda. :)

CybrTeddy
washingtonian115
TylerStanfield
allancalderini
ChillinInTheKeys


You left out Ptrap I am sure that he would like a Fresca
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1202. JLPR2
Quoting yqt1001:


Lesser Antilles. The earliest possible time it could be Barry would mean TS watches now (about 10 hours or so). NHC must've realized they couldn't ignore the wave and hope for it to dissipate like they were. :P


Meant right in front of it.
The wave is supposed to pass to the NE of the Islands and to do that it has to cross an area of 30-50knots of wind shear.
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Quoting zampaz:

My first year. I'm trying it. I'm liking it. Can't sleep, must have more wunderground.


If you stay, pay the ten dollars for a year of membership. *S*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Invest 92L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24549
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I'll throw in two more, considering the plus comments. :) You five, send me an address in wumail and I'll get you a soda. :)

CybrTeddy
washingtonian115
TylerStanfield
allancalderini
ChillinInTheKeys
Thanks a lot I love soda but depend which flavor you send me.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Yeah, customs always picks through and keeps the best stuff for their selves.
Yeah always.
Quoting OceanMoan:


LOL I try to resist the temptation to even turn the computer on until I get my stuff done for the day. I know once I get on WU nothing else will get accomplished.
I am actually trying to relax to don`t be that nervous because if I don`t pass that exam I would probably fail my junior year.
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Much stronger winds now here in Clearwater than this morning with the bands and tornados.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1196. yqt1001
Quoting JLPR2:


Place a landmass in front of it and it would be Barry.


Lesser Antilles. The earliest possible time it could be Barry would mean TS watches now (about 10 hours or so). NHC must've realized they couldn't ignore the wave and hope for it to dissipate like they were. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1195. Torito
My F5 key will be gone and i will have to set internet explorer to refresh every 30 seconds by the end of this season........
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1194. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I'll throw in two more, considering the plus comments. :) You five, send me an address in wumail and I'll get you a soda. :)

CybrTeddy
washingtonian115
TylerStanfield
allancalderini
ChillinInTheKeys

Im good. Thanks anyway. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Agree.I am suppose to be studying for my precalculus quiz for this monday.


LOL I try to resist the temptation to even turn the computer on until I get my stuff done for the day. I know once I get on WU nothing else will get accomplished.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
I would never see that soda:D I live in Honduras probably it will take years to reach me if it ever.lol


Yeah, customs always picks through and keeps the best stuff for their selves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1190. zampaz
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Humberto's surprise was what led me to find WU. So glad I did. I lurked for about a year and then officially joined. Little did I know how addictive this place would be. *G*

My first year. I'm trying it. I'm liking it. Can't sleep, must have more wunderground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1189. Torito
Maybe, shear means nothing this year....... .-.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting nigel20:

Hey wash!
I guess that it was given near 0% due to the 40 to 50 knots of shear ahead of it.
Probably..but it would have had a better chance if they were monitoring it yesterday.Who knows we could have had "Barry" by now..But knowing the NHC...
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Haha, I see! :) We can try, wouldn't send a can, just some a little currency. :) Snail mail, I know, but it'd get there.
I'm on a diet so can't drink soda :) water is fine though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17629
1187. K8eCane
Just occured to me, did TWC send Cantore or anybody anywhere?
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1186. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:


This is really making me irritated towards the NHC lol.


Place a landmass in front of it and it would be Barry.
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The NWS in Miami has confirmed a tornado earlier today in the Acreage. Likely an EF1 with winds around 100mph. Tornado Watch continues until 10pm tonight
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ha ha we got 92L!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1183. Torito
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


And that is with all the shear. Imagine what August will look like!


IKR... This is going to be a crazy hurricane season.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1182. Patrap
Quoting allancalderini:
From being a horrible invest to almost a hurricane in just a day that is impressive imo.


Having Loaded the atmospheric dice, I'm not surprised at all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting SLU:
Folks .. say hello to tropical storm "Barry". One-minute winds at NOAA 41014 buoy now up to 33kts and 35 - 40kt winds barbs with a closed LLC.







This is really making me irritated towards the NHC lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
I would never see that soda:D I live in Honduras probably it will take years to reach me if it ever.lol


Haha, I see! :) We can try, wouldn't send a can, just a little currency. :) Snail mail, I know, but it'd get there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Humberto's surprise was what led me to find WU. So glad I did. I lurked for about a year and then officially joined. Little did I know how addictive this place would be. *G*
Agree.I am suppose to be studying for my precalculus quiz for this monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thinking this gust front that is outrunning the main line will be packing a punch on it's trip across.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. sar2401
The blog is moving way too fast for me to keep up. Someone asked about the CMC predicting this storm. Have a look at the CMC on 5/30 and you'll see that, while not perfect, the CMC had it pretty good back then. The CMC held the same track and intensity for the last five days as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I'll throw in two more, considering the plus comments. :) You five, send me an address in wumail and I'll get you a soda. :)

CybrTeddy
washingtonian115
TylerStanfield
allancalderini
ChillinInTheKeys
I would never see that soda:D I live in Honduras probably it will take years to reach me if it ever.lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Yup, and WU members were calling it, aching for classification. Remember it well.


Humberto's surprise was what led me to find WU. So glad I did. I lurked for about a year and then officially joined. Little did I know how addictive this place would be. *G*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Folks on the southwest gulf coast be aware


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 283...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER EAST CENTRAL TX NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING NW/SE ACROSS ERN TX AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD. ACTIVITY IS IN THE SRN PORTION OF A
VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD TOWARD NERN TX. STRONGER WNWLY WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY MAX ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...WEISS
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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