Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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1274. K8eCane
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah I think so.



maybe he will be back this season
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
got a bigger box...



Caicos:

I'm just not ready for those lines yet...psychologically speaking, that is!


Lindy
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
got a bigger box...



It's got a zero percent. Why did they even mark it?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting K8eCane:



was it weather456?
Yeah I think so.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17477
1269. HCW
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember their was a blogger who sent a very impressive note to the NHC on why they should name a storm.I think it was in 2009?

Wasn't it Miamihurricanes99 who did that ?
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Why is it so easy for a troll to gut-hook this blog?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I agree that the NHC really hasn't covered the 92L wave very well, they most likely discounted it based off of little more than climatology, which while a good tool, is not absolute. Anomalies can and do happen, and while this wave may or may not be a TD, it is a lot closer than they have given it credit for. Having said that, it is probably too late for it, as the SHIPS model dissipates it within 3 days due to 25-40kts of shear.


Agreed. Its too late.
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1266. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SHIPS showing 92L dissipated completely by 72 hours.

True and, in theory, that's what should happen...just like Andrea was never supposed to become more than weak TS. All I know from looking at the satellite photos is that 92L does not have the appearance of a storm that's headed for dissipation.
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Link
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1263. K8eCane
Quoting washingtonian115:
The person who sent it was a pro met in the caribbean.Someone help me! what was his name?
Quoting washingtonian115:
The person who sent it was a pro met in the caribbean.Someone help me! what was his name?



was it weather456?
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
and it isnt comming here either sun is out and no more on radar comming here


Sounds like you didn't need the rain so just be thankful you didn't get the tornados like they did in the Tampa area. 100-200 year old trees getting knocked down on top of a house wouldn't be a good thing.
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Between Keyton Beach and Cedar Key looks like the landfall place. Now.
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Quoting sar2401:

LOL. I'm sure the NHC is very interested in receiving our input on every storm. Unfortunately, their first question is always" ...and what university did you get your advanced degree in meteorology from again?" I told them my degree was in psychology and hospital administration. For some reason, they didn't seem impressed. :-)
The person who sent it was a pro met in the caribbean.Someone help me! what was his name?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17477
Who let the troll out of his cage?
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
theres no excuse but if you can read ive been talking about daytona not orlando (dope)


You said it was a dud storm, that's your experience in your area. Many others have had a lot of adverse effects from it, he was giving an example to counter your "dud" claim. Chill out.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2752
got a bigger box...

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
Another season and another fascinating storm to mull over. Was concerned about the tornado threat for FL last night and this morning and it seems we have had plenty of them. Carolinas must be on alert tomorrow for these threats.

Andrea has dealt with alot but still intensified under moderate shear and an almost decoupled structure. Doesn't bode well for the next 4-5 months but every storm had its own character. The thermodynamics kept this thing rolling along...aided by the fact that the mid level circulation has been very robust throughout its life.

There will be some rough times ahead - we all hold out hope that they come in the form of 20 "fishies" rather than 1 major landfall. That strong disturbance out in the CATL is the first clue to what we are facing.

Prayers to those under tornado, wind and flood warnings from our first storm. And please - turn around, don't drown.
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting notanotherwrong:
thank you this was a pathetic and as usual over hype rain event but you know how people get on here they panic and over due everything like its some kind of cat 5 and doom


Just because you feel like things fizzled in your area does not mean it fizzled all over, in case you were not aware. For example, during Sandy there was only one or two strong gusts of wind here in Montgomery County, PA with not too much rain either. But does that mean Sandy fizzled? No, it just takes a visit to the Jersey shore to see that.

If all you have to offer to a discussion is complaint after complaint about a forecast, then why are you even here?
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big rain

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1249. sar2401
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember their was a blogger who sent a very impressive note to the NHC on why they should name a storm.I think it was in 2009?

LOL. I'm sure the NHC is very interested in receiving our input on every storm. Unfortunately, their first question is always" ...and what university did you get your advanced degree in meteorology from again?" I told them my degree was in psychology and hospital administration. For some reason, they didn't seem impressed. :-)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


WELL I GUESS IT'S JUST ANOTHER WRONG YEAR....

WOULD YOU LIKE SOME CHEESE WITH YOUR WHINE?


Fixed that for you.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2752
Quoting notanotherwrong:
thank you this was a pathetic and as usual over hype rain event but you know how people get on here they panic and over due everything like its some kind of cat 5 and doom


Excuse me we have low lying flooding all over Orlando from 3" to 5" of rain just today not including all the rain the last couple of days.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
SHIPS showing 92L dissipated completely by 72 hours.


The environment is murder out there.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
I agree that the NHC really hasn't covered the 92L wave very well, they most likely discounted it based off of little more than climatology, which while a good tool, is not absolute. Anomalies can and do happen, and while this wave may or may not be a TD, it is a lot closer than they have given it credit for. Having said that, it is probably too late for it, as the SHIPS model dissipates it within 3 days due to 25-40kts of shear.

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SHIPS showing 92L dissipated completely by 72 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting notanotherwrong:
thank you this was a pathetic and as usual over hype rain event but you know how people get on here they panic and over due everything like its some kind of cat 5 and doom


WELL I GUESS IT'S JUST ANOTHER WRONG YEAR....

WOULD YOU LIKE A COOKIE, YOUR BEDDY-BYE BLANKET OR YOUR PACIFIER?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Wow! I suspect we might have a upgrade to 20 or 30% on the next TWO.

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...92L thinking outside the box

; )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
Quoting notanotherwrong:
another great forcast for daytona....... well they predicted 5 to 10 inches of rain here with 20 to 40mph winds with higher gusts.... so far since yesterday afternoon we have had 1.45 inches of rain and a high wind gust of 11mph and its all over now according to radar... once again another total goofed up forcast its worse here every afternoon with daily t storms


3.60" of rain just today
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Not good, the wind gusts are taking off some of the roof shingles of my house.


winds gusting to 35 mph at my place near Orlando. Weird as all the wind has come after the rain moved by.

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Whoa, hello there invest 92L. It's looking really good, especially for this time of year. I love when I get home to these types of surprises during hurricane season.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
I remember their was a blogger who sent a very impressive note to the NHC on why they should name a storm.I think it was in 2009?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17477
First plots.

00
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC THU JUN 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130606 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130606 1800 130607 0600 130607 1800 130608 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 46.7W 14.6N 49.1W 15.5N 51.7W 16.3N 54.3W
BAMD 13.6N 46.7W 14.6N 47.9W 15.3N 49.1W 16.0N 50.4W
BAMM 13.6N 46.7W 14.5N 48.7W 15.2N 50.7W 15.8N 52.8W
LBAR 13.6N 46.7W 14.4N 48.2W 15.2N 50.1W 15.7N 52.3W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130608 1800 130609 1800 130610 1800 130611 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 57.0W 18.3N 62.6W 19.7N 68.3W 21.2N 72.8W
BAMD 16.5N 51.6W 17.1N 53.2W 16.9N 53.2W 17.8N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 55.1W 17.1N 59.5W 17.8N 63.7W 19.4N 67.8W
LBAR 16.2N 54.7W 16.9N 59.3W 17.6N 62.8W 18.7N 64.5W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Quoting notanotherwrong:
we got 2.9 inches of rain on monday night and 1.4 inches tuesday during our normal daily t storms this wasnt any storm to speak of


Guess what, the storm isn't in Daytona yet.
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1231. sar2401
Quoting notanotherwrong:
when is this tropical storm comming? just some rain here in daytona all morning no wind at allthats 4.8 inches over the past 4 days i live here and its been nothing much they predicted 5 to 10 inches for today

I'm quite certain we have locations in Alabama that have gotten more rain in the last 4 days than anywhere in Florida. Some locations have already received more than 9", and it looks like more is on the way from a cold front advancing eastward.
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1230. JRRP
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One could say this might mbe classified as TD already already, just my take though
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
when is this tropical storm comming? just some rain here in daytona all morning no wind at all thats 4.8 inches over the past 4 days i live here and its been nothing much they predicted 5 to 10 inches for today


This is truly comical.

Learn some math please... it was 2 days, not 4.
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I think something like a TD designation wouldn't hurt from the NHC, I mean, If it were to survive the shear, It might be worth watching...
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Not good, the wind gusts are taking off some of the roof shingles of my house.
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1224. cg2916
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TXNT24 KNES 061946
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 14.0N

D. 46.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


Where do you find this?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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