Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

Share this Blog
60
+

Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1424 - 1374

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1423. sar2401
Quoting robj144:


Dug this up online:

"A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours[5] or less. Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle."

If it's still tropical, the arrival in the Northeast is most likely more than 36 hours from now, hence no warning.

According to our handy dandy tracking map at WU, it's supposed to be off NYC by 0200 Saturday. According to my math, that's 33 hours. They were real quick to hoist TS warnings for almost the entire east coast of Florida yesterday. I can't see why TS warnings shouldn't be going up now at least as far north as Cape May.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1422. Patrap

834
WUUS54 KLIX 062126
SVRLIX
LAC057-089-093-095-062215-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0096.130606T2126Z-130606T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 423 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17
MILES NORTHWEST OF RACELAND...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF THIBODAUX...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MATHEWS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 2967 9055 2984 9092 2988 9090 2988 9089
2990 9089 3001 9083 2989 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 293DEG 12KT 2989 9078
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Focusing on "Landfall" is a moot point in these types of Storms as most of the Impacts are well inland removed from the CoC.

Impacts are the threat at the moment, as the right front Quad is active with Multiple Shear Markers inland and along the coast.

Nothing "Magical" happens when "Landfall" is made as the storm is well ashore at least by "Half" even with a Large Hurricane...save for Surge being well inland usually at that time.




Yessir. And inland flooding remains by far the biggest killer from tropical systems. Please take care and be safe on the roads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Methurricanes:
Remember Nichole? everyone was BS about how it really wasn't a storm because it only lasted 2 advisories, and the NHC was "fluffing" the number, its Damned if you do, damned if you don't.




i re call that storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




why not send the nhc a email and tell them that



all so there is all ways post season so its likey that 92L will added has a unname storm
Remember Nichole? everyone was BS about how it really wasn't a storm because it only lasted 2 advisories, and the NHC was "fluffing" the number, its Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1417. Patrap
312
WUUS54 KLIX 062119
SVRLIX
LAC103-MSC045-062200-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0095.130606T2119Z-130606T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SLIDELL...
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SLIDELL AND PEARLINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY AND PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 3025 8942 3017 8950 3017 8956 3014 8958
3014 8962 3017 8968 3016 8972 3026 8983
3040 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 310DEG 5KT 3027 8968
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1416. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:


This track has always been popular for these storms. Cross over fla like its nothing and reintensify upon hitting the atlantic. But usually July Aug Sept


And i believe Andrea will stay inland
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Is there evidence that this will continue the entire season though?
None
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1414. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1413. j2008
Quoting robj144:


Dug this up online:

"A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours[5] or less. Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle."

If it's still tropical, the arrival in the Northeast is most likely more than 36 hours from now, hence no warning.
If nothing else there should be a watch up just to get people to think about the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1412. JNTenne
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Back. Banned me for a whole minute...
I know Im going to stop commenting now. Going to just start ignoring everyone that I feel like i'll argue with. Just wasting time, and dont feel like it. Tired of it.

For future use.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1411. Patrap

659
WFUS52 KJAX 062118
TORJAX
FLC089-062130-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0007.130606T2118Z-130606T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
518 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO NEAR FERNANDINA BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.



LAT...LON 3064 8142 3063 8143 3062 8154 3071 8155
3071 8154 3072 8153 3073 8149 3071 8147
3071 8143 3070 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 174DEG 34KT 3073 8144



HESS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Dug this up online:

"A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours[5] or less. Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle."

If it's still tropical, the arrival in the Northeast is most likely more than 36 hours from now, hence no warning.


The recommendations going forward after Sandy were to give tropical storm warnings for storms that were once tropical...a measure to give a little more warning to the affected areas. Per the track, Andrea should reach the northeast under 36 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1409. robj144
Quoting SLU:


Regardless of the outcome, a busy Cape Verde year has been confirmed.


Is there evidence that this will continue the entire season though?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1408. K8eCane
Quoting sar2401:

So she still hasn't made landfall yet? It's now tropical, should become extra tropical, but also might be post-tropical? Will rapidly accelerate NE when there's a nice trough over to her west that she seems to be already feeling? This will be kind of interesting.


This track has always been popular for these storms. Cross over fla like its nothing and reintensify upon hitting the atlantic. But usually July Aug Sept
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Regardless of the outcome, a busy Cape Verde year has been confirmed.
SLU.One storm does not make for a busy CV season.....Way too early
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The "oops" storm?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't get why 92L wasn't/isn't a tropical cyclone.

This was from 02Z today:



This was from 14Z today:



Both passes show a closed circulation center..




why not send the nhc a email and tell them that



all so there is all ways post season so its likey that 92L will added has a unname storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1403. Patrap
Focusing on "Landfall" is a moot point in these types of Storms as most of the Impacts are well inland removed from the CoC.

Impacts are the threat at the moment, as the right front Quad is active with Multiple Shear Markers inland and along the coast.

Nothing "Magical" happens when "Landfall" is made as the storm is well ashore at least by "Half" even with a Large Hurricane...save for Surge being well inland usually at that time.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Regardless of the outcome, a busy Cape Verde year has been confirmed.


This is the key point about this impressive wave presence in early June.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1401. robj144
Quoting wxgeek723:
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.


Hmmm where have I heard that before?



I'm confused...NHC forecast calls for Andrea to emerge over the Chesapeake while still tropical, yet the Tropical Storm Warnings cease at Cape Charles. In reality I doubt she will be a tropical storm by then, but wouldn't that forecast logic validate an extension of warnings up to at least Cape May? Even if she does become extratropical? Does Andrea not pose enough of a threat to the Northeast? I understand this is very different from Sandy and far less dangerous but wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity for the NHC to enact their policy change?


Dug this up online:

"A tropical storm warning (TRW) is issued when tropical storm conditions (as above) are expected in a specified coastal area within 36 hours[5] or less. Maritime flags indicate this with a single square red flag with a black square in the middle."

If it's still tropical, the arrival in the Northeast is most likely more than 36 hours from now, hence no warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1400. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have nearly no doubt in my mind this is a tropical cyclone, that being said there are "bigger fishes to fry " with an active tropical storm hitting the United States. This won't even be around in 48 hours I'm betting.


Regardless of the outcome, a busy Cape Verde year has been confirmed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like another round here in West Boynton Beach...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You can already see the LLC racing ahead of the convection.


Yeah, it's going to be sheared pretty bad, but the convection is also increasing at d-min. Pretty impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1397. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
5 p.m. advisory out, discussion soon.

Andrea's 5 p.m. public advisory
Andrea's 5 p.m. discussion

So she still hasn't made landfall yet? It's now tropical, should become extra tropical, but also might be post-tropical? Will rapidly accelerate NE when there's a nice trough over to her west that she seems to be already feeling? This will be kind of interesting.
Edit: BTW, my pressure here in SE Alabama is falling like a rock. Down to 29.65 from 29.79 at noon. Winds light and mostly from the NNE. Some kind of low pressure is moving our way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Andrea is about to make landfall on Big Bend in Florida.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have nearly no doubt in my mind this is a tropical cyclone, that being said there are "bigger fishes to fry " with an active tropical storm hitting the United States. This won't even be around in 48 hours I'm betting.


48 hours is probably generous. Right now it appears to have developing curve banding and a vigorous mid level spin. I've seen worse storms named! But it's a non-factor by the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1393. Patrap

060
WUUS54 KLIX 062110
SVRLIX
LAC103-105-117-062200-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0094.130606T2110Z-130606T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
EAST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR FOLSOM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH
OF FRANKLINTON TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMMOND...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ABITA
SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 3047 8971 3038 9004 3065 9044 3074 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 308DEG 18KT 3066 9012 3062 9026
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1392. nash36
Just had a fun talk (text session) with my wife who is worried about tornadoes tonight from Andrea. Taught her some things. I will make my wife a weather geek if it kills me!!!! LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1391. Patrap
Quoting atmosweather:


Couple of right-movers there sniffing around ya Pat. Potential is there for very strong storms with tons of moisture & mid/upper energy to assist. Central/S-ern MS airmass is ripe for some nastiness this evening.


Have one eye on it fo Sho'

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fabian171017:
Do you think that Andrea's peak intensity will be upgraded to 70 mph or possibly even 75 mph after the season?


Meh on 75 mph. I remember the huge discussion last year when Beryl made landfall, half of the blog thought it was a hurricane, half did not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if 92L can hold and get pass the shear it may have a better ch down the rd has wind shear will get lower


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1388. Torito
Quoting K8eCane:


Torito I dont think the 5 pm advisory shows that, does it?


yes it does...

5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55
KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 71 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT. NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15. ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.

ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR COAST
12H 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Not sure how this isn't being given more consideration. The upper level winds should become increasingly unfavorable, but it was worth considering yesterday afternoon. For all intents and purposes, it's most likely at least a TD now if not stronger.



You can already see the LLC racing ahead of the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Couple of right-movers there sniffing around ya Pat. Potential is there for very strong storms with tons of moisture & mid/upper energy to assist. Central/S-ern MS airmass is ripe for some nastiness this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1385. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph




OH MY. I must be asleep....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1384. Dakster
Quoting Methurricanes:
How strong is Andrea suppose to be as it impacts New England? Is that just a continuation of the remnant low, or is it an actual storm?


About as strong as Sandy, but without the effects she brought last year.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
ANDREA did vary well for the 1st storm of the season better then ALVIN did wish olny made it too 50mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1382. Dakster
Quoting sar2401:

Arf! Those models can only be viewed on a need to know basis. :-)


If anything the NSA should have them.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1381. Patrap
5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1380. K8eCane
Quoting Torito:
ANDREA now 65-70 mph according to latest advisory by NHC, TWC showed it a minute ago.


Torito I dont think the 5 pm advisory shows that, does it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do you think that Andrea's peak intensity will be upgraded to 70 mph or possibly even 75 mph after the season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have nearly no doubt in my mind this is a tropical cyclone, that being said there are "bigger fishes to fry " with an active tropical storm hitting the United States. This won't even be around in 48 hours I'm betting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure how this isn't being given more consideration. The upper level winds should become increasingly unfavorable, but it was worth considering yesterday afternoon. For all intents and purposes, it's most likely at least a TD now if not stronger.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How strong is Andrea suppose to be as it impacts New England? Is that just a continuation of the remnant low, or is it an actual storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't get why 92L wasn't/isn't a tropical cyclone.

This was from 02Z today:



This was from 14Z today:



Both passes show a closed circulation center..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1374. Torito
ANDREA now 65-70 mph according to latest advisory by NHC, TWC showed it a minute ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1424 - 1374

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.