Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.


ahhh, don't forget Rita? Between Katrina and Rita, the entire coastline of Louisiana was demolished. Rita devastated the entire west side of Louisiana more than halfway up the state.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting scottsvb:
Andrea is pretty much still on projected track..there are wobbles here and there but the general path is NE towards Citrus-Levy county....there is a slight chance she might get 1 county south but it's about it. Andrea got alittle stronger than I expected along with most with the NHC-NWS... her moving in tandum with the shear caused less of it. Her only problem was the dry air that is wrapping into her. If that wasn't present then there was no reason for her not to become a hurricane. Also she is lacking another 12hrs of being out over the water. Her landfall is later this afternoon or evening..another 12hrs could of done it. I'm not sure if she will get any stronger than 60-65 mph... it's up to her cause she has the marginal water temps to do it but dry air is fighting her all the way along with the trough. I'm still impressed on her getting into the 60mph range with that dry air.



You said it. I never thought it'd amount to much more than a depression given its poor environment, severe shearing and copious dry air. It did though. Perhaps that loop fuel kept it energized. And, that low/mid level circulation had to have been vigorous to keep its game on! We're likely fortunate it spawned when it did because later in the season or in even a marginally better environment Andrea could have gotten together considerably quicker, catching many off guard land-falling.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.


If Sandy had been a major, we could have seen something worse than Katrina, thankfully it diddnt happen.
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Winds here in Tampa (pasco county) are around 10-15mph and just alot of moderate to heavy rain...though the heavier squalls bring gusts up to 30-35mph
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To everyone under the gun for severe weather today from Florida to texas-miss-la regions:

HEED THE WARNINGS!. Also, even if you do not have underground shelter and a large tornado approaches, it is STILL not advisable to trying running away from it on major roads. Get in an interior room as you normally would. No one wants a repeat of Reno OK where people just died on the roads.


Most important though is the "heed the warnings" part. Too often people get complacent and its going to be a rough day all along the gulf coast as this front starts pushing south and Andrea gets close to landfall.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.
Gustav too.
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If Andrea resumes her normal path and heads toward Cedar Key, she might have a shot at hurricane status. But if this is a permanent east jog, the Tampa shield is broken. So is this a permanent jog or will she go back NE?
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Quoting hericane96:
TS Andrea continues to surpise me and most of us thought it would not get above 50. This is why I love tracking them. They will always throw out surprises.You gota love them.


This is why I love tropical systems. They are full of surprises and wonder.
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Rain for S FL now
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Is there a live cam link somewhere?
Also what do you guys think of the chances Andrea will become a hurricane?
That would make it tied of the earliest Hurricane strike in the US if I am not mistaken.
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I see that An-dree-uh has turned into quite a nice system this morning. The shear direction stopped coming out of the west and started coming more out of the south-southwest, not to mention it slacked off some as well. This helped her wrap convection around to the west side of her circulation and the result is intensification. We've seen this situation time and time again in June in the Gulf. I'd expect her to strengthen a little more before landfall, so Florida should be in for a rough ride today and tonight.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Tampa shield?

Not today
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

2004 is the more notable one since Florida got 4 Hurricanes that were all pretty bad whereas 2005 everyone got hit so you could hardly say it was just a Florida year.
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.
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Quoting Dakster:


No, two years in a row -- 2004 and 2005.


He also maybe referring to Bonnie/Charley (04) 2 storms within 24 hours
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ANDREA looks more like a STS now then a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115073
Quoting bucyouup68:
I can hear the Freight train rumbling off in the distance, toward Gulfport. It is bad here on Coquina Key
stay safe,,there is another real nasty line coming
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Even the tropical wave out in the Central Atlantic looks like a Tropical Storm:

welcome to the hyper weather 2013 and its a lot hyper yet to come
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Quoting muddertracker:


*cough* Allison *cough*


Only TS to be retired if I remember. Fay was also a trouble maker, lots of damage in ECFL and SGA.
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Heavy rains in Ocala, since 8am. Winds are starting to pick up.
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Still strengthening.
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Meanwhile today in Texas I find myself caught between a front and roughly 1800 rising to 2000 Joules of cape.


We are supposed to have anything up to and including Tornadoes as far south as Houston today so its going to be interesting. Had a nasty HP supercell that was tornadic go through downtown early last year and it flooded alot of houses in outlying neighborhoods.
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I think we all owe StormTrackerScott an apology. I wasn't one of the people that bashed him, and while I was in the camp of this becoming a tropical storm, I had many doubts (to say the least) about this strengthening to 60-70 miles an hour. Even as late as today, just after midnight, he was ridiculed and told to get off the crack. Yet, he stuck to his forecast of 70 MPH near Cedar Key AND got the development time right. He is designated official crow server. Good job Scott, you win this round, I've sent some of this up to Orlando.
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KOTG - Looks like she is trying to close off and get that dry air out.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10255
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Quoting scottsvb:
Andrea is pretty much still on projected track..there are wobbles here and there but the general path is NE towards Citrus-Levy county....there is a slight chance she might get 1 county south but it's about it. Andrea got alittle stronger than I expected along with most with the NHC-NWS... her moving in tandum with the shear caused less of it. Her only problem was the dry air that is wrapping into her. If that wasn't present then there was no reason for her not to become a hurricane. Also she is lacking another 12hrs of being out over the water. Her landfall is later this afternoon or evening..another 12hrs could of done it. I'm not sure if she will get any stronger than 60-65 mph... it's up to her cause she has the marginal water temps to do it but dry air is fighting her all the way along with the trough. I'm still impressed on her getting into the 60mph range with that dry air.


she is wrapping moisture from the east. dry air is being left behind
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

2004 is the more notable one since Florida got 4 Hurricanes that were all pretty bad whereas 2005 everyone got hit so you could hardly say it was just a Florida year.


Ok. Good point.

But Florida still got hit more than anyone else.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10255
Quoting all4hurricanes:

2004 is the more notable one since Florida got 4 Hurricanes that were all pretty bad whereas 2005 everyone got hit so you could hardly say it was just a Florida year.


2005 wiped out the entire Louisiana coast.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Even the tropical wave out in the Central Atlantic looks like a Tropical Storm:

I think it was at least a T.D at one point like T.D 7 from last year.The NHC probably didn't do anything about it because it's June..
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gee just lost power there for a few minutes,thats never happened here before..
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TS Andrea continues to surpise me and most of us thought it would not get above 50. This is why I love tracking them. They will always throw out surprises.You gota love them.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I never thought about that. So is being on the west side of a 'regular' storm safer from tornados than the east side of it?


Usually, but there are no guarantees in life.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10255
Need to watch these Cells very closely as their has been Sunshine over the area recently.

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Quoting Dakster:


No, two years in a row -- 2004 and 2005.

2004 is the more notable one since Florida got 4 Hurricanes that were all pretty bad whereas 2005 everyone got hit so you could hardly say it was just a Florida year.
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Andrea is pretty much still on projected track..there are wobbles here and there but the general path is NE towards Citrus-Levy county....there is a slight chance she might get 1 county south but it's about it. Andrea got alittle stronger than I expected along with most with the NHC-NWS... her moving in tandum with the shear caused less of it. Her only problem was the dry air that is wrapping into her. If that wasn't present then there was no reason for her not to become a hurricane. Also she is lacking another 12hrs of being out over the water. Her landfall is later this afternoon or evening..another 12hrs could of done it. I'm not sure if she will get any stronger than 60-65 mph... it's up to her cause she has the marginal water temps to do it but dry air is fighting her all the way along with the trough. I'm still impressed on her getting into the 60mph range with that dry air.
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G'morning, weathergeeks. :)

Certainly, Andrea has come together nicely finally, and obviously quite dangerous still though it may only be a moderate tropical storm. And, it seems to be strengthening somewhat as well. Did it take a jog more eastward?
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HCW - One Tornado and all of Central to South Florida is under that red box...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10255
TROPICS CHAT ANYONE?
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TORNADO WARNING FOR NO. CNTL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FL.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BASINGER AND SE OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL 1045 AM EDT. AT 1017 AM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BASINGER.
MOVING NO. AT 35 MPH.
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Quoting hydrus:
Dat eye!.


Quoting Dakster:
Yeah, Wash - the Bermuda high worries me this year. I hope it isn't 'set' for the season. A long track cape verde storm could be disastrous.
Well it will move around..but lets hope it's not strong when the real waves start rolling off the coast...
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I am going to say landfall is going to happen in Homosassa FL in Citrus County.
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Quoting Dakster:


You are on the 'clean' side of the storm, so your chances should be lower.


I never thought about that. So is being on the west side of a 'regular' storm safer from tornados than the east side of it?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Even the tropical wave out in the Central Atlantic looks like a Tropical Storm:

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177. HCW
Quoting Dakster:
A lot of Tornado watches are up:

Brevard Broward Charlotte
Citrus Collier DeSoto
Glades Hardee Hendry
Hernando Highlands Hillsborough
Indian River Lake Lee
Manatee Martin Miami-Dade
Okeechobee Orange Osceola
Palm Beach Pasco Pinellas
Polk St. Lucie Sarasota
Semenole Sumter

Read more here: http://weather.herald.com/US/FL/Miami.html#storyli nk=cpy


Only 1 tornado watch is out at this time

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176. 7544
morning folks looks like ms andrea surpise all of us looks like she wants to go due east at this hour maybe se fl from miami amd broward will see some action today from that long tail moving east ?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The Bermuda high is in a rather nasty place this year..So if it doesn't change all that mush..watch out below!!.It could be a harbinger of a healthy caribbean season as that is where Andrea originated from..


And I am going to the east coast of Florida for two weeks in August... I better keep a watch out.
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Yeah, Wash - the Bermuda high worries me this year. I hope it isn't 'set' for the season. A long track cape verde storm could be disastrous.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10255

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.