Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Quoting DataNerd:
To everyone under the gun for severe weather today from Florida to texas-miss-la regions:

HEED THE WARNINGS!. Also, even if you do not have underground shelter and a large tornado approaches, it is STILL not advisable to trying running away from it on major roads. Get in an interior room as you normally would. No one wants a repeat of Reno OK where people just died on the roads.


Most important though is the "heed the warnings" part. Too often people get complacent and its going to be a rough day all along the gulf coast as this front starts pushing south and Andrea gets close to landfall.
Florida really doesn't get "large" tornados, Nerd. At least compared to the ones in the midwest states. barely F1s that's it.
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Quoting SGILighthouse:
Live cam here. High tide in about an hour. This is St. George Island, a barrier island off Apalachicola in the FL panhandle. Camera looking SSE to GOM.



Ah, a streaming cam. Thanks!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6509
Just to rehash, once Andrea makes landfall, it is not over. The CMC which has been 90% correct with this storm, is sticking to its guns and saying there will a Second (or third) landfall in the Long Island/Connecticut/Rode Island area...As a potentially strong Cat. 1 Extra-Tropical Storm around the 8th.

(Cant really call it a Hurricane, because it will be more Nor'eastly in nature by this time, but will still pack the same punch as a Cat. 1 Hurricane. However it will have a larger wind field, therefore higher storm surge potential than we will see with the Florida Landfall...Will make its final landfall along the Maine/Canadian border) THIS IS ALL IF THE CMC RUN REMAINS ACCURATE.

This will not be another Sandy, but will still a very interesting North-East Storm storm.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
somewhere between cross city and north of tampa that's its current track



Landfall is going to happen in Homosassa FL. Book It
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27 mile wide weak eye structure on radar, about 2/3 completed
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Clearwater Beach cam: Pretty wild!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6509
Live cam here. High tide in about an hour. This is St. George Island, a barrier island off Apalachicola in the FL panhandle. Camera looking SSE to GOM.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tornado Watch for Broward, Indian River, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach and St. Lucie County in FL until 10:00pm.


After this morning, I knew that was going to be extended.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Seems to be ENE for now.
somewhere between cross city and north of tampa that's its current track
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Thankfully this system lacks any deep convection near it's center.

Andrea seems like it is in the same spot as Debby last year.
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Quoting Waltanater:
Yet again, the NHC always "underestimates" the intensity of these storms...they said 40-45MPH TS max and it is now 60mph! For hurricanes, it seems their predictions are always 1 category below what it actually becomes! They are very weak in this area, IMO.


Predicting intensity is very difficult.
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The CMC wants to develop the wave as well in the Atlantic..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17631
Andrea intensifying before landfall, TWC is on stocks and mcdonalds,...
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how many raders to we neeed to have on this blog pages i see 7 raders of all most the same thing on one pages a lone and there mosting showing the same thing
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


This is why I love tropical systems. They are full of surprises and wonder.
Yet again, the NHC always "underestimates" the intensity of these storms...they said 40-45MPH TS max and it is now 60mph! For hurricanes, it seems their predictions are always 1 category below what it actually becomes! They are very weak in this area, IMO.
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Quoting wpb:
lucky for shear otherwise it could of been a cat1
2

starting to look subtropical a bit
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Tornado Watch for Broward, Indian River, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach and St. Lucie County in FL until 10:00pm.
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
So I'd like to know what happens to the west coast of Florida post-Andrea. Specifically, the weather forecast for Cape/Ft. Myers has good rain chances for the next five days, but every time I consult the satellite pic I see super-dry air advancing eastward over the Gulf of Mexico! I would love to think that daily thundershowers will continue over the Florida west coast, but I have my unhappy doubts.

Anybody know where all that DRY AIR is gonna be headed, post-Andrea?? T. I. A.


Sorry, as a fellow Fort Myersian, I can tell you that it is June, and while we will of course see sunshine during the weekend, this adds an extra kick to our thunderstorms because they are self destructive, Don't expect a nice comfortable day until at least September probably October.
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Seems like a bit of NE move here recently. Will have to see if it's going back on expected track.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Seems to be ENE for now.
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252. wpb
lucky for shear otherwise it could of been a cat1
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Dat eye!.I wish the HH were up there.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17631
85mph about 12000 feet up still
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Just to rehash, once Andrea makes landfall, it is not over. The CMC which has been 90% correct with this storm, is sticking to its guns and saying there will a Second (or third) landfall in the Long Island/Connecticut/Rode Island area...As a potentially strong Cat. 1 Extra-Tropical Storm around the 8th.

(Cant really call it a Hurricane, because it will be more Nor'eastly in nature by this time, but will still pack the same punch as a Cat. 1 Hurricane. However it will have a larger wind field, therefore higher storm surge potential than we will see with the Florida Landfall...Will make its final landfall along the Maine/Canadian border) THIS IS ALL IF THE CMC RUN REMAINS ACCURATE.

This will not be another Sandy, but will still a very interesting North-East Storm storm.

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Tampa area web cams.
Link
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I wonder if the pythons moving north are happy...
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Shear taking its toll on the CATL wave. Pretty good work so far on both systems by GFS.

Link
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Quoting fmhurricane2009:


He also maybe referring to Bonnie/Charley (04) 2 storms within 24 hours
Also Frances and Jeanne!
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thats one nasty looking line of storms coming..........
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.

2005 was a bad year for Florida too I am just saying 2004 was the year that singled out Florida and trashed it.
I still think its strange we have to go back to 2005 to find a major hitting the U.S. I don't consider Ike or Sandy major hurricanes I think they just prove you don't need one to have massive impacts.
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2/3 of an eyewall?
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Quoting 900MB:
Not sure I want to see Andrea test the Sandy damaged trees and beaches up on Long Island. I'll be out on the South Fork (Eastern Long Island) for the storm.

At present it looks like it will be post-tropical 45mph with 4" of rain forecast. Though, Andrea has exceeded all expectations so far, so it's anyone's guess.

Any chance this is gets off coast quicker and starts juicing on the gulf stream?


Yes. The cone might shift east.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2882
So I'd like to know what happens to the west coast of Florida post-Andrea. Specifically, the weather forecast for Cape/Ft. Myers has good rain chances for the next five days, but every time I consult the satellite pic I see super-dry air advancing eastward over the Gulf of Mexico! I would love to think that daily thundershowers will continue over the Florida west coast, but I have my unhappy doubts.

Anybody know where all that DRY AIR is gonna be headed, post-Andrea?? T. I. A.
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Advisory should come out in the next half hour.
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Quoting fmhurricane2009:
I think we all owe StormTrackerScott an apology. I wasn't one of the people that bashed him, and while I was in the camp of this becoming a tropical storm, I had many doubts (to say the least) about this strengthening to 60-70 miles an hour. Even as late as today, just after midnight, he was ridiculed and told to get off the crack. Yet, he stuck to his forecast of 70 MPH near Cedar Key AND got the development time right. He is designated official crow server. Good job Scott, you win this round, I've sent some of this up to Orlando.


GET MY DINNER OFF THE BLOG:)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


If Sandy had been a major, we could have seen something worse than Katrina, thankfully it diddnt happen.


how about, Katrina on sandys track.... worst case senario
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232. 900MB
Not sure I want to see Andrea test the Sandy damaged trees and beaches up on Long Island. I'll be out on the South Fork (Eastern Long Island) for the storm.

At present it looks like it will be post-tropical 45mph with 4" of rain forecast. Though, Andrea has exceeded all expectations so far, so it's anyone's guess.

Any chance this is gets off coast quicker and starts juicing on the gulf stream?
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A new seasonal treat at McD's.... McCrow Nuggets.....
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Is there a live cam link somewhere?
Also what do you guys think of the chances Andrea will become a hurricane?
That would make it tied of the earliest Hurricane strike in the US if I am not mistaken.


Link
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6509
big booming in the gulf now..that line of storms must be getting closer.
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Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - Looks like she is trying to close off and get that dry air out.


not much time may happen just before and during landfall
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Quoting hydrus:
Gustav too.



While IKE was never revised in post season analysis it was believed it reach category three intensity just prior to landfall as the winds went over the 110 mph threshold at one point.
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St. Petersburg Pier

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma which was the last major hurricane to hit the CONUS. Even though you could make a case for Ike and Sandy based on there damages.


ahhh, don't forget Rita? Between Katrina and Rita, the entire coastline of Louisiana was demolished. Rita devastated the entire west side of Louisiana more than halfway up the state.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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