Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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324. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tornado Watch for Broward, Indian River, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach and St. Lucie County in FL until 10:00pm.


yeap and look at that long tail forming to her south this is goin east and now the se fl coast may see some action latter on today but how strong remains to be seen they calling for 3 to 5 inches up to 8 in some areas so far it mostly dry from last night we shall se what hapens
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Radar indicates there are some higher velocities (~70 knots) in the southeast eyewall. This may be nearing hurricane intensity. Nearing.

Nearing.

Now reflectivity:




at that distance the radar beam is very high up......70kts is probably not translating to surface so yes near may be right
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
322. skook

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Is that an eye?

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Can't wait to get data from the HH.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756
Subtropical? Huh?
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hearin thunder with no rain coming........strange.
no lightning or high clouds in area either
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Andrea stays 60mph.
Wasn't expecting to see a strong TS this morning.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Wake Up with Al is starting to get on my nerves. How about some storm coverage?


Lol. As soon as NBC took over TWC, weather was no longer a priority for The Weather Channel.
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Radar indicates there are some higher velocities (~70 knots) in the southeast eyewall. This may be nearing hurricane intensity. Nearing.

Nearing.

Now reflectivity:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Try not to focus on the convection -- Beryl had almost no deep convection and it was a 70mph TS. Radar image has improved.
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ANDREA is doing march better then ALVIN did in the E pac
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still same
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Quoting muddertracker:
Wake Up with Al is starting to get on my nerves. How about some storm coverage?
I'm afraid the weather channel isn't what it use to be.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756
Quoting DataNerd:
Shear taking its toll on the CATL wave. Pretty good work so far on both systems by GFS.

Link


Why is this wave heading to the fishes !! The following one... will pass through the southern Lesser Antilles (GFS solution) with again little effect on Northern Islands.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Getting a little weaker? What's your evidence on that?


Sat obs and recent bouy that isn't that far away from the center. But just cause the sat structure isn't good.. it will take awhile for her to lose wind speed and everything. Alittle isn't a big deal as of now
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EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT
ABOUT 6500 FT
. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT
PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.
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305. 7544
hmm with the a strom now here and maybe another one comin soon lets go back in time and say welcome to the 2005 hurricane season lol but i have felling it might be another 2005 ! where the systems started this early .
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No change in intensity. :|
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11am EST update
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
The convection over the center is collapsing there is no chance of hurricane before FL landfall
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A new Tornado Watch has been issued until 10:00 PM EDT (#283) This includes ALL of the Florida Peninsula (Except mainland Monroe) including NE FL. This also includes coastal SE GA (S of Brunswick)
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Radar view showing some lightning strikes in the storms coming in from the Gulf. Mixing with drier air can cause that to happen.
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Quoting weatherh98:
60 mph still




yep.

my chrome chrashed......i'm back now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not much time may happen just before and during landfall


Yes - which is good for Florida... Rather have a strong TS than a Hurricane hit.
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60 mph still
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Just wanted to say two things. One, the NHC does it's best to make an educated guess at intensity. That is why you always need to be prepared for a storm when it is in your area. Two, here is the complete Tornado Watch list from the last update posted at 10:45am.


Brevard Broward Charlotte
Citrus Collier DeSoto
Glades Hardee Hendry
Hernando Highlands Hillsborough
Indian River Lake Lee
Manatee Martin Miami-Dade
Okeechobee Orange Osceola
Palm Beach Pasco Pinellas
Polk St. Lucie Sarasota
Seminole Sumter
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how many raders to we neeed to have on this blog pages i see 7 raders of all most the same thing on one pages a lone and there mosting showing the same thing
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Wake Up with Al is starting to get on my nerves. How about some storm coverage?
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Quoting scottsvb:
Andrea is not getting stronger... she is holding her own and getting alittle weaker if anything. Her landfall is the easiest forecast here... Citrus-Levy county..that won't change..slight chance she might brush Hernando county. Still overall she has done very well these past 24hrs


Getting a little weaker? What's your evidence on that?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how many raders to we neeed to have on this blog pages i see 7 raders of all most the same thing on one pages a lone and there mosting showing the same thing


its actually kind of nice, since Im on a laptop, I can enjoy reading about the system and every once an a while, as I scroll i see a new image. I don't mind it.
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The tornado watch was likely extended due to the fact the main band will probably slide through south florida now with Andrea heading more east. Depending on the updated wind profiles from Recon the TS winds may clip Northern portions of SFL as well.
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Andrea damage from vicious storms.

Link

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Thanks Dr. Good example of why storms entering into the Gulf of Mexico can be unpredictible at times; they can put a groove on in a short period of time. We are lucky that sheer and dry air is keeping her in check. Lots of folks would have been taken by surprise, and on short notice, if a Cat 1 was knocking at the door this moring with everyone at work all day having to leave and make last minute decisions for coastal and marine interests....Actually a good idea, if you are one of these folks, to leave work early today and prepare your boats and other coastal assets for landfall later.

Very little difference between a 70 mph TS and minimal Cat 1.
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Looks like a slight NE movement on Tampa radar.
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Certainly looking more like a Hurricane.
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Andrea is not getting stronger... she is holding her own and getting alittle weaker if anything. Her landfall is the easiest forecast here... Citrus-Levy county..that won't change..slight chance she might brush Hernando county. Still overall she has done very well these past 24hrs
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Quoting Tazmanian:




thats ture


ROFL!
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LUCKY Andrea is just an infant. Could have been much worse.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
A new seasonal treat at McD's.... McCrow Nuggets.....
McCrow sandwich...with a side order of Mcfeathers! In fact, yesterday at the drive thru I ordered 1 mccrow sandwich and they gave me 2! Those idiots.
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yeah, this will remain fully tropical until it gets to about SC/NC.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a landfalling system up to the minute would be nice for those being affected

more so if this had to be a major today




thats ture
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^Not even close to it
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
Again, Andrea is not a subtropical cyclone.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how many raders to we neeed to have on this blog pages i see 7 raders of all most the same thing on one pages a lone and there mosting showing the same thing


I would much rather see 900 straight radar posts than to see you complaining about what other people post all the time.
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Crap sorry, didnt mean to post that again >< sorry for the extra double-post spam.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how many raders to we neeed to have on this blog pages i see 7 raders of all most the same thing on one pages a lone and there mosting showing the same thing
its a landfalling system up to the minute would be nice for those being affected

more so if this had to be a major today
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Quoting DataNerd:
To everyone under the gun for severe weather today from Florida to texas-miss-la regions:

HEED THE WARNINGS!. Also, even if you do not have underground shelter and a large tornado approaches, it is STILL not advisable to trying running away from it on major roads. Get in an interior room as you normally would. No one wants a repeat of Reno OK where people just died on the roads.


Most important though is the "heed the warnings" part. Too often people get complacent and its going to be a rough day all along the gulf coast as this front starts pushing south and Andrea gets close to landfall.
Florida really doesn't get "large" tornados, Nerd. At least compared to the ones in the midwest states. barely F1s that's it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.