Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Looks like the TampaShield will deflect yet again.
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First F5 key press of the year!
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intense rain and wind slapping downtown now. big fat rain drops remind me of typical heavy afternoon summer time storms.
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AT 1110 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A WATERSPOUT COMING ASHORE NEAR OSPREY. POTENTIALL TORNADIC
CELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSPREY TO SOUTH
VENICE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVE CITY TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BOCA GRANDE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VENICE TO ENGLEWOOD TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO 19 MILES SOUTH
OF ENGLEWOOD...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I've lived in Florida ll my life and have never heard of the forgotten coast. Guess its name is appropriate
I hope it stays forgotten.It is beautiful, no need to slap condo,s on it ..:)
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Quoting FL1980:


Looking at this radar, doesn't it appear that its moving more of and east northeast motion than northeast? Maybe its just my eyes.


Looks like NE to me...

Link
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Storms in the Tropical Storm range to even low cat 1 do not necessarily have their strongest winds near the CoC. More often than not, it's in outer rain bands.

I'd say the radar data quoted above is a little perplexing to me, because as I look at the radar, the brightest colors on base velocity actually are near the center.

There was a patch of bright green near the CoC which came and went, which was corresponding to 80kts. Maybe that was a gust, or maybe the radar is looking too high.

The Wunderground radar display does not have as high of a range allowed in the display or calculations, but shows a max velocity of -69kts, probably near "Anna Maria" or Bradenton, south of Tampa and St. Petersburg, since that's where the dark blue patch is. So that would be a category 1 force wind, at 80mph. This is on the lowest angle setting, so it can't be looking too high.


that is based on radar showing it at 6000 ft... I think the Andrea discussion tells of what you saw
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I've lived in Florida ll my life and have never heard of the forgotten coast. Guess its name is appropriate


Local Chamber of Commerce likes "Nature Coast"
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A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LEE/CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ROTATING SQUALL LINE.
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Gordon in 2000 also reminds me of Andrea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
414. HCW
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

He made a good guess forecast.


It's called "guess" and I give him credit for that. Anyone can say it can be 40 or 60 or 80 on a system before it develops. So unless he has a degree in Meteorology and since the experts can't predict intensity..it's a good guess. :)
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Model data from 10:55 EST.
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June 1-5: Hurricane threat Forecast for Florida by the Farmer’s Almanac they did good
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looking at this radar, doesn't it appear that its moving more of and east northeast motion than northeast? Maybe its just my eyes.
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Partial eyewall W of Tampa now, apparently moving from 250.
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Looks like the dry air and wind shear might be starting to hamper Andrea.
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Thought so, Andrea's southern eye is falling apart due to shear and dry air, she wont strengthen anymore before landfall.
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Wow, that squall line intensified quite a bit on radar in the last few frames. Still haven't gotten anything here yet, although it's approaching the coast now..
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

He made a good guess forecast.


i have to believe that there are other factors at play with a system like this other than wind shear and dry air.

I have yet to hear anyone explain why this system developed in spite of that.

THAT will be a discussion I'd like to hear about.
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Quoting scottsvb:


Sat obs and recent bouy that isn't that far away from the center. But just cause the sat structure isn't good.. it will take awhile for her to lose wind speed and everything. Alittle isn't a big deal as of now


Storms in the Tropical Storm range to even low cat 1 do not necessarily have their strongest winds near the CoC. More often than not, it's in outer rain bands.

I'd say the radar data quoted above is a little perplexing to me, because as I look at the radar, the brightest colors on base velocity actually are near the center.

There was a patch of bright green near the CoC which came and went, which was corresponding to 80kts. Maybe that was a gust, or maybe the radar is looking too high.

Edit: I counted again, and it's actually 6 shades of green, which is 99kts, not 80kts.

The Wunderground radar display does not have as high of a range allowed in the display or calculations, but shows a max velocity of -69kts, probably near "Anna Maria" or Bradenton, south of Tampa and St. Petersburg, since that's where the dark blue patch is. So that would be a category 1 force wind, at 80mph. This is on the lowest angle setting, so it can't be looking too high.
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Quoting Klolly23:

Largo this band has really kicked up the winds here in sarasota
Hi kolly yes this sure is some storm alright..stay safe down there ok
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Quoting TBayEyes:


sticks = surfboards
gnarly = surfing
soups = churned up waves off the beach


Ha...thanks :)
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give credit where its due
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also note, per radar, that Andrea has jogged to the NE quite a bit......Could make landfall just below the Big Bend on the Forgotten Coast......
I've lived in Florida ll my life and have never heard of the forgotten coast. Guess its name is appropriate
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792
WFUS52 KTBW 061511
TORTBW
FLC015-071-115-061600-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0011.130606T1511Z-130606T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1111 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1106 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LAND-FALLING WATERSPOUTS
EXTENDING FROM LAUREL TO ENGLEWOOD TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALM
ISLAND TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOCA GRANDE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VENICE TO ENGLEWOOD TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD
TO 18 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE NEAR...
LAUREL...VENICE.
OSPREY...VAMO.
BEE RIDGE...ROTONDA.
WARM MINERAL SPRINGS...BOKEELIA.
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...GULF COVE.
NORTH PORT...BURNT STORE MARINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2667 8227 2682 8229 2705 8245 2723 8254
2739 8235 2738 8225 2721 8225 2721 8205
2703 8205 2703 8200 2668 8190 2662 8218
2665 8221 2664 8222 2661 8221 2660 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1509Z 228DEG 25KT 2716 8249 2697 8241
2680 8237 2671 8237
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Getting close to flooding, high tide is over a hour away.
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Quoting tkeith:
Can you translate that Hydrus?

:)


surfers being stupid but not knowing it's stupid because they think risking their lives is "gnarly?" Just a guess?
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Wow, I bet no one (except for StormScott) expected Andrea to make her run at hurricane status. No one. There are storms that proved me very, very wrong in the past and this is one of them. Us in Raleigh is going to get blasted with 50 mph winds and rain. This might be the strongest tropical system I'll go through since moving to here in 2009. I know there are lot of radar posts, but this is just impressive. It's also large!

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arlene



andrea is huge


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Quoting scottsvb:



Yeah you kept saying nothing will happen
Me and others along with the NHC thought 40-50mph
StormScott or whatever his handle said 60-70mph

So he made a good "guess"..

Andrea suprised alot of us



I expected 45-50 MPH, but diddn't think it would ever get this strong...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
all of the EAST COAST STATES..this system WILL..not lose much strength all the way UP the east coast..get prepared folks.........................
Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT41 KNHC 061454
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT
ABOUT 6500 FT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT
PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING
CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

GIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS
NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE
DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE
COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
ANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT
INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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are you supposed to exaggerate the e in andrea?

sounds weird how Vivian brown is saying it
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Tropical Storm Allison 2001


Retirement




Due to extreme destruction, the name Allison was retired in the Spring of 2002, and will never again be used in the Atlantic basin; the 2001 incarnation of Allison is the only Atlantic tropical system to have its name retired without reaching hurricane strength. The name was replaced with Andrea in the 2007 season.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
NHC rainfall map

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Who called 70mph yesterday?

I said everyone should go ahead and prepare for 70mph, but I didn't actually "call" 70mph.

I know at least one person was saying 70mph max intensity repeatedly.

Since none of the models or experts said anything anywhere near that, and the official forecast was like 40 to 45mph, I'd say calling 70mph makes him more accurate than the pros.


I don't know what the deal is with NHC, but they consistently under-rate storms' max intensities in their forecasts, by about 15 to 20mph, or about a full category worth.



Yeah you kept saying nothing will happen
Me and others along with the NHC thought 40-50mph
StormScott or whatever his handle said 60-70mph

So he made a good "guess"..

Andrea suprised alot of us
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Quoting tkeith:
Can you translate that Hydrus?

:)


sticks = surfboards
gnarly = surfing
soups = churned up waves off the beach
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Tropical Storm Arlene was an unusually large and early-forming tropical storm forming during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first storm of the season, which would become the most active on record.


This fits Andrea perfectly............well at leaset the 1st part

Tropical Storm Andrea is an unusually large and early-forming tropical storm, forming during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the first storm of the season, which will become the __?__ most active on record.
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With the next band comin' 'round, the east coast of South Florida is gonna get slapped, like a big wet fish in the face. We've had over 2" of rain this morning.
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Wow... with all being considered, Andrea looks incredible right now. Florida is lucky she doesn't have much more more time over water.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.The whole Peninsula is under a tornado watch/warning.

I wonder if Mike Thesis is out Chasing this or Micheal Laca.I think Jim retired..


Ikr? Im just hoping the rain stays long enough to get MD wet when it gets this way...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Hearing lots of thunder rolling in over Longboat Key. Strange to hear so much of that in a TS.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Who called 70mph yesterday?

I said everyone should go ahead and prepare for 70mph, but I didn't actually "call" 70mph.

I know at least one person was saying 70mph max intensity repeatedly.

Since none of the models or experts said anything anywhere near that, and the official forecast was like 40 to 45mph, I'd say calling 70mph makes him more accurate than the pros.


I don't know what the deal is with NHC, but they consistently under-rate storms' max intensities in their forecasts, by about 15 to 20mph, or about a full category worth.
It was StormTrackherScott! Although he was a bit off on the "code red" by 8pm, I'd say he "nailed it" on the 70 mph at landfall!

Did you see my post # 258? I do agree with you on that.
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Quoting Torito:
Lol.The whole Peninsula is under a tornado watch/warning.

I wonder if Mike Thesis is out Chasing this or Micheal Laca.I think Jim retired..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting LargoFl:
wow this band of storms is strong the rain is swirling and the tree's gee......i hear there was damage from that tornado around here..tree's down and a road is blocked and damage to a resturant etc.....

Largo this band has really kicked up the winds here in sarasota
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Who called 70mph yesterday?

I said everyone should go ahead and prepare for 70mph, but I didn't actually "call" 70mph.

I know at least one person was saying 70mph max intensity repeatedly.

Since none of the models or experts said anything anywhere near that, and the official forecast was like 40 to 45mph, I'd say calling 70mph makes him more accurate than the pros.


I don't know what the deal is with NHC, but they consistently under-rate storms' max intensities in their forecasts, by about 15 to 20mph, or about a full category worth.


really noticeable with the longer track storms
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Quoting hydrus:
I would bet that there are people on tha sticks gettin gnarley in the soup.
Can you translate that Hydrus?

:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.