Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Best wave i have seen in a long time...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
rain and wind has eased up a bit for the moment around here.
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highest wind gust so far is 63mph over tampa bay in the past 15 minutes just above the surface...aka nws ruskin
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Quoting TBayEyes:
can you tell me what tvs means?

tornado vortex signature.
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wow rain stopped here in downtown st. pete but the wind seems to be gusting with more power. didn't expect that. I figured after this band passed wind would die down some.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...DELAWARE BAY WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND CAN PRODUCE SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$
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In the meanwhile, while everyone is watching andrea, a wave is getting sheared (i think) in the atlantic. xD



It also is just sitting there...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
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Quoting Waltanater:
Yeah, even Dr. Masters himself underestimated!

He states in his other blog: "If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico"

Seemed like it was pretty easy. LOL


+1
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Quoting TBayEyes:
can you tell me what tvs means?



Tornado vortex signature

It's the upside down triangle:)
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Ok, I did some calculations, with some trig, and the winds in the 69 to 78kts range, near Tampa Bay, are at an elevation of about 370 feet, give or take a little.
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
Al Rocker (Mr.Potato-Head) is not a Weatherman, he is a just a clown!




He's a news reporter assigned to the weather...
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Quoting scottsvb:



Yeah you kept saying nothing will happen
Me and others along with the NHC thought 40-50mph
StormScott or whatever his handle said 60-70mph

So he made a good "guess"..

Andrea suprised alot of us
Yeah, even Dr. Masters himself underestimated!

He states in his other blog: "If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico"

Seemed like it was pretty easy. LOL
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can you tell me what tvs means?

Quoting Patrap:
Note the TVS'

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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until noon EDT for western
Charlotte... Sarasota and northwestern Lee counties...

At 1115 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate several landfalling tornadoes along the Suncoast. These
storms were located along a line extending from Vamo to South Venice
to Grove City... or along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Sarasota to Venice to Englewood... moving north at 35 mph.

The tornado will be near...
South Venice.
Bee Ridge.
Englewood.
Gulf Cove.
El Jobean.
Gator creek estate.
North Port.
Myakka River State Park.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
BTW Al Rocker is the laziest weather man out there.Now back to tracking Andrea.
Al Rocker (Mr.Potato-Head) is not a Weatherman, he is a just a clown!
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Quoting LargoFl:
YES..according to the NHC the storm wont lose much strength all the way up the coast..stay safe up there, tons of rain coming your way later in the week.
Just remember it might turn post-tropical over Virginia. When that happen, NHC don't post warnings and give warnings on Andrea over to local NWS.
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still high res vis

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Quoting Dakster:


Just don't let that, let you keep your guard down and use as a reason to not prepare...


True words. I worry that the good citizens of Tampa might have a false sense of protection. I hope that everyone in Fla. has already prepared for the upcoming season.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Neither is Wunderground.

This site is just a mirror site for NWS and AGW alarmist sites, plus a few links to some independent sites and universities.

If not for the bloggers, there wouldn't even be any real information on this site.

Example:

The amateur bloggers gave more accurate intensity forecasts, and more accurate center fixes than the pros.

I bet if they removed the ability of users to make posts, almost nobody would even bother visiting this site.

I appreciate the bloggers, I'm learning a lot from y'all. There are some really smart puppies on here.
As far as repetitive posts of maps, weather statements and the like, there cannot be enough information when severe weather events are occurring.
If you want to know the weather, and experience weather events with others, lurk the wunderground.
If you want melodrama and human tragedy thrust in your face, watch TV.
-z
I lurk the wunderground.
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On its current trajectory, Tropical Storm Andrea is 82 miles away from landfall just north of Cedar Key. If we assume at will remain at a constant speed of 15 mph up to this point...which it likely won't...that puts Andrea's center over water for another 5.4 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Tornado Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1121 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FLC015-071-115-061600-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130606T1600Z/
LEE FL-SARASOTA FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
1121 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR WESTERN
CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 1115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SEVERAL LANDFALLING TORNADOES ALONG THE SUNCOAST. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VAMO TO SOUTH VENICE
TO GROVE CITY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SARASOTA TO VENICE TO ENGLEWOOD...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH VENICE.
BEE RIDGE.
ENGLEWOOD.
GULF COVE.
EL JOBEAN.
GATOR CREEK ESTATE.
NORTH PORT.
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADOES GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
IN A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE
NOT SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR
CULVERT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.

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Note the TVS'

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Many models suggesting regeneration tuesday or so (low chance), but the storm would be so far north that I seriously doubt it would still be considered a hurricane (upgraded), like this chart shows....

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting weatherbow:
Does anyone think that the Tropical Storm Warnings will be extended into the Delmarva/Jersey Shore? I think it is possible.
YES..according to the NHC the storm wont lose much strength all the way up the coast..stay safe up there, tons of rain coming your way later in the week.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


It's not a guess when people without a degree repeatedly beat the people with the degree.

===

Yeah, the CoC is weakening, because the strongest signature was at the beginning of the radar loop. Even in just the past few minutes it came down two shades, probably 15 to 20kts, on the max velocity.

The peak velocity on the radar was at 10:48EDT, and was in the partial eye-wall, at least based on what I have access to.

The peak velocity near land is close to 80mph still, in the cell entering Tampa Bay.


The radar is showing that above the surface.

btw StormScott made a good guess... even us Mets can make a good guess cause we don't have the tech skill to make a intensity forecast. Lets not over do it.. he got his props
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Quoting trinigal:
Could I get some educated guesses as to when the worst of this will be through Tampa? I'm thinking by later afternoon? What say you?
I'll say it leave about midnight tonight or early Friday morning.
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444. 900MB
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT
INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.


I still dont understand why NHC hands off to locals when transition occurs. Long Island is still due for 45mph sustained winds and surge. It was this lack of continuity that caused issues with Sandy and lead Mayor Bloomberg to declare that Sandy "will not be a tropical storm or anything like it" 48 hours before the superstorm hit!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting Chapelhill:
Nice live stream of some surge.

Link


Nice, thanks.
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Quoting weatherbow:
Does anyone think that the Tropical Storm Warnings will be extended into the Delmarva/Jersey Shore? I think it is possible.
It could become post-tropical by the time Andrea get there.
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Quoting weatherh98:
are you supposed to exaggerate the e in andrea?

sounds weird how Vivian brown is saying it


just be glad you ain't in cayman listening to Cayman27 news Weather report the guy that did it before he retired was better than this new guy and the old guy used to say the opposite of what really is sunny=stormy stormy=sunny this new guy can't even talk much less so when he meant to say Andrea it come out a whole different name don't ask me what it is

andrea did well this year and actually making landfall this time good for her now here COC is naked with a little fuss ball of convection on the N side of the circulation
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Could I get some educated guesses as to when the worst of this will be through Tampa? I'm thinking by later afternoon? What say you?
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Quoting Torito:


I sure dont.. is it like in the last 10 minutes? cause if it is like 2 frames, i probs wont see it. I got no sleep last night AGAIN...
Well, this is like last 10 frames on my GRLevel3, a radar program. It's going ENE for now. I still expect landfall in Cedar Key.
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Charlotte Harbor and surrounding areas getting whacked.
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Nice live stream of some surge.

Link
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Quoting muddertracker:
Looks like the TampaShield will deflect yet again.


But being on the NE quadrant, they (Tampa, St. Pete, New Port Richey, Sarasota, and the keys) will get a taste of Tropical storm fun.

Enjoying the video feed from, what Long Boat key was it?
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Does anyone think that the Tropical Storm Warnings will be extended into the Delmarva/Jersey Shore? I think it is possible.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Looks like the TampaShield will deflect yet again.


Just don't let that, let you keep your guard down and use as a reason to not prepare...
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Heading out and be back later. Only a light drizzle and overcast at the moment east of Tally. Here is the relevant portion of the latest local NWS statement on impacts for coastal Big Bend residents. (link below for more info):

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1021 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65
MPH.

TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN...RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES FROM THESE STRONGER WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST..RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST FLOODING ARE AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SELECTED TIDE TIMES IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...
Link
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We are getting pounded right now with South wind and HEAVY RAIN, White out conditions
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Quoting scottsvb:


It's called "guess" and I give him credit for that. Anyone can say it can be 40 or 60 or 80 on a system before it develops. So unless he has a degree in Meteorology and since the experts can't predict intensity..it's a good guess. :)


It's not a guess when people without a degree repeatedly beat the people with the degree.

===

Yeah, the CoC is weakening, because the strongest signature was at the beginning of the radar loop. Even in just the past few minutes it came down two shades, probably 15 to 20kts, on the max velocity.

The peak velocity on the radar was at 10:48EDT, and was in the partial eye-wall, at least based on what I have access to.

The peak velocity near land is close to 80mph still, in the cell entering Tampa Bay.
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To moonlightcowboy: We owe a LOT of coke cans my friend... a lot... :)

The tornado that hit my area (The Acreage) early this morning was a close call. With a new natural pond in our yard, sleep deprived and a leaking roof, we are grateful for "Simple Weather Alert" app and Skyepony's self-updating CAPE warning on her blog (post "109).

Hope everybody heeds the warnings, Fay spawned 81 tornadoes and killed 11 people - and it was "only" a TS.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, he's right. I am seeing ENE direction right now, but this could just be a wobble.


I sure dont.. is it like in the last 10 minutes? cause if it is like 2 frames, i probs wont see it. I got no sleep last night AGAIN...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Storm Allison 2001


Retirement




Due to extreme destruction, the name Allison was retired in the Spring of 2002, and will never again be used in the Atlantic basin; the 2001 incarnation of Allison is the only Atlantic tropical system to have its name retired without reaching hurricane strength. The name was replaced with Andrea in the 2007 season.


WOW! What an eerie connection!
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What you see on radar now is what you get Florida. Ya the negative conditions are finally starting to catch up to Andrea.

Time to start focusing on near term landfall impacts and figuring out what this storm is going to do up the east coast, particularly in the Long Island area.
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Quoting Torito:


Looks like NE to me...

Link
Actually, he's right. I am seeing ENE direction right now, but this could just be a wobble.
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Looks like the TampaShield will deflect yet again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.