Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Can someone please post the radar? I haven't seen one in forever!
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Quoting tamipeach:
Tornado by Busch Gardens in Tampa


Free the Animals!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1693
Former ENE wobble compensated with a NNE wobble ... general NE track until landfall looks good right now.
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Quoting yqt1001:
People were surprised by the strengthening of Andrea?

It's not like the storm needs to look good (ie, great conditions) to have strong winds, like with Dvorak. It has recon support to bring the winds way higher than they would be in the middle of the open Atlantic.

Think of Nate 2011.

"By that afternoon, maximum sustained winds had increased to 75 mph (120 km/h) based on oil rig data and Nate became a hurricane (based on post-analysis, it was not considered a hurricane operationally); however, the appearance of the storm on satellite imagery remained largely unchanged and the satellite appearance resembled a weak tropical storm as opposed to a Category 1 hurricane"


Andrea had dry air and shear to contend with. Not a situation that normally causes strengthening.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2954
Quoting weatherh98:



I'd bag it to be honest... Not enough time to get enough valuable data... Just kind of a waiste of money

Just thinking, if they really wanted to know what the storm is at intensity-wise before landfall, they better get going.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1380
Quoting weatherh98:


Andrea pretty much sat in the shear and when the shear changed direction from west to south this morning, it took advantage and wrapped up a bit.


ahh, so let me see if I have this right.

There was enough energy in the disturbance that would later become Andrea to sit there and percolate in the face of "the shear" (is that the jet stream?).

Once the shear let up or changed direction in relation to that percolating energy mass, the system began to develop with less resistance.

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I know everybody's attention is on Andrea but this has got to be the strongest wave ever for so early in the season. I suspect 92L is coming soon.

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Quoting TylerStanfield:
If I was Recon, I would be suiting up to leave right now, considering that the window of opportunity of is closing for them to investigate one last time...



I'd bag it to be honest... Not enough time to get enough valuable data... Just kind of a waiste of money
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Good morning everyone.I see Andrea may strength to 70mph I remember saying 60 and 65 I may not be too off anyways looks like the Cmc forecast perfectly the intensity of Andrea and if Andrea would have form in another place she would have probably reach hurricane status.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
Quoting Torito:


If this was July that wave would be nearing hurricane status.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
People were surprised by the strengthening of Andrea?

It's not like the storm needs to look good (ie, great conditions) to have strong winds, like with Dvorak. It has recon support to bring the winds way higher than they would be in the middle of the open Atlantic.

Think of Nate 2011.

"By that afternoon, maximum sustained winds had increased to 75 mph (120 km/h) based on oil rig data and Nate became a hurricane (based on post-analysis, it was not considered a hurricane operationally); however, the appearance of the storm on satellite imagery remained largely unchanged and the satellite appearance resembled a weak tropical storm as opposed to a Category 1 hurricane"
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If I was Recon, I would be suiting up to leave right now, considering that the window of opportunity of is closing for them to investigate one last time...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1380
Definitely done strengthening, most areas in the impact zone are almost feeling the worst of it now with all that dry air around the center of the storm.
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Well, I got few chores to do before leaving for 9 hours shift at Walmart. I'm sure we'll see Andrea when I leave the shift at midnight.
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www.esl.lsu.edu
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Tornado by Busch Gardens in Tampa
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Andrea's moving quicker than 20 mph right now. It's now less than 70 miles from landfall.


nice icon TropicalAnalystwx13... thanks for keeping them in our thoughts...
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<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

442
WFUS52 KTBW 061557
TORTBW
FLC101-061630-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0015.130606T1557Z-130606T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1157 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1157 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR ODESSA...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUTZ...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ODESSA...TRINITY.
MOON LAKE ESTATES...LAND O LAKES.
SHADY HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2843 8254 2843 8227 2848 8225 2848 8222
2817 8247 2818 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 213DEG 39KT 2821 8257
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

No, She's speeding up.


Between the 8AM update and 11AM update from NHC, looks like the center moved roughly 70 statute miles...Im estimating a speed of near 25mph. But then again it could be a wobble. Im no professional.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
3.14" in my rain gauge in Longwood just north of Orlando


You're looking really good! Gotta love that feeling. It's exactly how I felt Saturday when we had our good soaking in Southern Illinois. :-D
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Quoting TBayEyes:


I see, that makes sense.

So for TS Andrea, did we have any indication that the system was building this upper level ridging? Or was it more that the flow? of the wind shear changed or died down?

I am sure it was some combination, so many variables involved. I'd just like to know what lessons more experienced and knowledgeable people are learning from this system, if at all :)


Andrea pretty much sat in the shear and when the shear changed direction from west to south this morning, it took advantage and wrapped up a bit.
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Quoting TBayEyes:


Yeah not sure. I think conditions did improve too, but that was the opposite of what was being forecast wasn't it?

I get the sense that dry air wind shear > tropical wave.

Like dry air and wind shear will always win out.

For instance, that the wave that has been noted out in the atlantic. Yesterday people were saying watch that it looks vigorous etc, and other said yeah BUT wind shear is gonna rip it up.

I understand why wind shear doesn't help in development, but if a wave is gaining power, it seems like the wind shear just finds another path around the system.

Or almost like the system consumes the wind shear and adds to the over all disturbance of the growing tropical wave.

I bet it has something to do with angular momentum.

And what is SST? lol i don't have enough knowledge to connect these acronyms with the words, but I am pretty good at understand the words :)
Yeah, sorry...Sea Surface Temps...but I agree with you, sometimes they do surpise us even though you know that it shouldn't.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
If Andrea managed to do so well in such an unfavorable conditions, I am little scared to see what rest of 2013 will be like. This is just an impressive start to the season.

Well, these sloppy storms can manage to fight off these kind of conditions better than some.
Definitely interested to see what's to come.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1380
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june 3rd





june 6th


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12Z GFS out to 72 with total accumulated precipitation amounts.

click to enlarge image

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Parts of Tampa has had 9" of rain!


Is Tampa flood prone?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2954
3.14" in my rain gauge in Longwood just north of Orlando

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Tropical Storm Arlene was an unusually large and early-forming tropical storm forming during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first storm of the season, which would become the most active on record.


This fits Andrea perfectly............well at leaset the 1st part

Tropical Storm Andrea is an unusually large and early-forming tropical storm, forming during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the first storm of the season, which will become the __?__ most active on record.


Absolutely nothing about Tropical Storm Arlene or Tropical Storm Andrea is unusual. That word simply does not apply. Both are very typical June tropical storms.
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We can finally clearly see the spin through the clouds now, as some are clearing out of the low....

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Dr. Masters Monday night t the portlight "Getting it right" conference in Atlanta.

Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting weatherh98:


WeatherTAP.com

But wait till we get some canes and use the 14 day free trial:)


Yeah, I saw that. Lol.

I didn't see the weathertap link.

I thought it was that other thing, the program they sell which gives you all the 3d radar data and such. I don't know what it's called.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Must say I am surprised with the intensification to 60mph with Andrea...didnt expect much due to shear and dry air like most here. Hopefully it will move quickly through the southeast without ALOT of rainfall...I can use half an inch or so but 1.50in will make it pretty soggy.


soggy now pays off in July..
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Parts of Tampa has had 9" of rain!
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
She almost looks to have sped up a notch or two. Or it could be an illusion due to the inner feeder bands nearest the eye drying up.


No, She's speeding up.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1380
Quoting weatherh98:


Depends on the situation.... If the system develops upper level ridging, the shear will go around it, if it doesn't and there is high shear, the odds are against it. Dry air harder to predict because there are no "rules" so to speak. If the system ingests dry air, it more than likely wont intensify quickly ex:Isaac. But if it is able to keep the dry air out of the circulation it should be fine...


I see, that makes sense.

So for TS Andrea, did we have any indication that the system was building this upper level ridging? Or was it more that the flow? of the wind shear changed or died down?

I am sure it was some combination, so many variables involved. I'd just like to know what lessons more experienced and knowledgeable people are learning from this system, if at all :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Appears to turned more EAST some...at least it looks like it.
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Picked up another 1.5 inches of rain north of the airport in Orlando since I posted earlier. Total of almost 6 inches now, and raining hard.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


How much does it cost to buy that thing?

I'm sick of having only the pathetic, inaccurate amount of information NWS gives to the general public.

I shouldn't have to try to measure and calculate the distance to a storm myself, because they don't give the data to people, when the computer does it automatically.
just a little over 8 dollars a month it has a monthly plan so ya don't have to spend like a years worth or anything and if ya never done before its gives ya 14 day test run before ya buy I only subscribe to tap from mid may till mid nov
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98W: The next storm this year?


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

.UPDATE...
LATEST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NEW TORNADO
WATCH...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM EDT. A CFW HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST DUE TO HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND WATER
LEVELS RUNNING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MINIMAL COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS...MAINLY THROUGH THE NOON AND EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
TODAY. THESE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
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Must say I am surprised with the intensification to 60mph with Andrea...didnt expect much due to shear and dry air like most here. Hopefully it will move quickly through the southeast without ALOT of rainfall...I can use half an inch or so but 1.50in will make it pretty soggy.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yep..... :|

ok good
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
She almost looks to have sped up a notch or two. Or it could be an illusion due to the inner feeder bands nearest the eye drying up.

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Quoting RTSplayer:


How much does it cost to buy that thing?

I'm sick of having only the pathetic, inaccurate amount of information NWS gives to the general public.

I shouldn't have to try to measure and calculate the distance to a storm myself, because they don't give the data to people, when the computer does it automatically.


WeatherTAP.com

But wait till we get some canes and use the 14 day free trial:)
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rain has stopped here but the winds are gusting and the dead branches on tree's etc are coming down around here.
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Quoting weatherh98:




He's a news reporter assigned to the weather...
Oh please, what he knows about the Weather, I can fit in a hang nail. If he's a news reporter, so is everybody on this blog.
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Andrea's moving quicker than 20 mph right now. It's now less than 70 miles from landfall.
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If Andrea managed to do so well in such an unfavorable conditions, I am little scared to see what rest of 2013 will be like. This is just an impressive start to the season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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