Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Storm is roughly 50 miles to the coast now...moving very quickly. Recon won't make it to the center before it moves ashore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Shear lessened down to 10-20 Knots and that's why she got her act together. No tropical system can survive 35 Knots of shear. Never say never, but 99% of Tropical Systems Cant survive it.


The right Shear (horizontal and not vertical) from the right direction can actually help a tropical system sometimes by ventilating it.
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Quoting 69Viking:


I think Andrea is past her peak. Too much land interaction to her East and North now and cloud tops are cooling over her core. Nice warm up storm for the start of the year. She's providing some drought relief and should cause minimal damage. Now we just need some drought relief along the coast in the Panhandle.



you do not no that Andrea has past here peak olny the recon will tell you that i bet the recon will find a hurricane or a 70 mph TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Are the GFS and other models still suggesting a non-tropical form of Andrea impacting Long Island? Such storms can have a larger wind area and heavier rains and they are not really quite put back together infrastructure wise are they?
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Tampa
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


no not all. Just having fun enjoying all this rain


Nothin' wrong with a little victory dance.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


umm yes it can we've seen it before


that bird better do double time if it want to catch it before landfall

-_- Cant you read the rest of a comment before responding? I said 99% Tropical Cyclones cant survive it, meaning its not impossible.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

This will be the best time to go out and get observations when she probably is at her most intense or very close to peaking. Maybe the next hour or two the window is left open.


I think Andrea is past her peak. Too much land interaction to her East and North now and cloud tops are cooling over her core. Nice warm up storm for the start of the year. She's providing some drought relief and should cause minimal damage. Now we just need some drought relief along the coast in the Panhandle.
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Andrea has sent us here in Sarasota/Tampa area her worst (and not very bad).
7 Tornado warnings and light structural damage in several locations, but mostly heavy rains training through Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, and Polk Counties.
We have had light pea size hail and variable winds from near calm to sustained 30+ mph over the last hours. Coastal Sarasota Bradenton has a 2 foot hight tide currently with a 1 1/2' storm "surge" added on top for an unusually high 3 1/2' tide (which is now steady or falling).
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was wondering, is it possible.that.another Low could form at
the tail end of Andrea?
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Shear lessened down to 10-20 Knots and that's why she got her act together. No tropical system can survive 35+ Knots of shear. Never say never, but 99% of Tropical Systems can survive it.


umm yes it can we've seen it before

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wait Levi birds not in the air yet!!!!!

that bird better do double time if it want to catch it before landfall
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201
WFUS52 KTBW 061617
TORTBW
FLC027-049-061645-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0016.130606T1617Z-130606T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1217 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LIMESTONE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ARCADIA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIMESTONE.
ONA.
ZOLFO SPRINGS.
WAUCHULA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2757 8195 2755 8165 2719 8188 2724 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 202DEG 33KT 2731 8194
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844

879
WFUS52 KTBW 061618
TORTBW
FLC015-027-055-061645-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0017.130606T1618Z-130606T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1218 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR BABCOCK RANCH...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF ARCADIA...MOVING
NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BABCOCK RANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.



LAT...LON 2733 8180 2725 8138 2688 8170 2693 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 200DEG 39KT 2700 8177
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 69Viking:


Still gloating?


no not all. Just having fun enjoying all this rain
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh yeah what you call this

Theyre on the Runway, which means theyre not reporting data, and especially not reporting winds of 65 Mph. *Facepalm*
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh yeah what you call this

wait Levi birds not in the air yet!!!!!
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Quoting TBayEyes:


HI Tyler,

I am interested in this wind shear discussion, cause as you know Andrea faced off with shear too. I think if I remember right she was inhibited by something like 35kts as an invest, but apparently had enough energy I am guessing to sit there and percolate until the shear let up or changed directions.

What are your thoughts on the amount of energy in a system vs the wind shear it faces?

Shouldn't there be some way to measure that relationship?

Oh snap, tornado warning for downtown st. pete, just got alerted. Winds have been increasing with some nasty gusts around here.

No. Shear lessened down to 10-20 Knots and that's why she got her act together. No tropical system can survive 35 Knots of shear. Never say never, but 99% of Tropical Systems Cant survive it.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Except that the recon isn't even in the air, could you please stop reporting false information?
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Agreed.

oh yeah what you call this
Quoting Levi32:
Recon is on the runway:

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe I nailed both intensity and landfall of Andrea. This is great news as that part of FL was in a moderate drought.



Still gloating?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe I nailed both intensity and landfall of Andrea. This is great news as that part of FL was in a moderate drought.



Scott, see post #201, I gave you an award.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Yeah just like Andrea was never going to be more than a 45 mph storm! I've learned in the tropics to never say never. I'm with you, I doubt it will amount to anything but you never know!

There's a TUTT feature shearing the crap out of it. It just wont make it... It wont get out of the shear until its about 20N and heading out to sea.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting yonzabam:


I got a horse race I'd like your opinion on.


LOl!
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Its receiving 40-50 Knots of shear and wont survive it. That's why the NHC is not interested in it. If it was going to be an invest, the NHC would've mentioned it by now. Look at Atmospheric data before looking at satellite and saying "Oh thats going to be an invest"


Yeah just like Andrea was never going to be more than a 45 mph storm! I've learned in the tropics to never say never. I'm with you, I doubt it will amount to anything but you never know!
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Its receiving 40-50 Knots of shear and wont survive it. That's why the NHC is not interested in it. If it was going to be invest, the NHC would've mentioned it by now. Look at Atmospheric data before looking at satellite it saying "Oh thats going to be an invest"


HI Tyler,

I am interested in this wind shear discussion, cause as you know Andrea faced off with shear too. I think if I remember right she was inhibited by something like 35kts as an invest, but apparently had enough energy I am guessing to sit there and percolate until the shear let up or changed directions.

What are your thoughts on the amount of energy in a system vs the wind shear it faces?

Shouldn't there be some way to measure that relationship?

Oh snap, tornado warning for downtown st. pete, just got alerted. Winds have been increasing with some nasty gusts around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe I nailed both intensity and landfall of Andrea. This is great news as that part of FL was in a moderate drought.



I got a horse race I'd like your opinion on.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Goodbye drought.



You were reading my mind. I just might end up with 6" to 8" before the day is up as more heavy rain is just to my west.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe I nailed both intensity and landfall of Andrea. This is great news as that part of FL was in a moderate drought.


Dont get too ahead of yourself, buddy. -_-
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting Levi32:
Recon is on the runway:


Oh wow. I didnt expect them to make a run at Andrea before landfall, since time is dwindling.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Quoting 900MB:
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT
INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.


I still dont understand why NHC hands off to locals when transition occurs. Long Island is still due for 45mph sustained winds and surge. It was this lack of continuity that caused issues with Sandy and lead Mayor Bloomberg to declare that Sandy "will not be a tropical storm or anything like it" 48 hours before the superstorm hit!


I completely agree. I think more people would listen to a Tropical Storm Warning than a Wind Advisory/High Wind Warning. That's exactly what happened here with Sandy, and sadly, that is probably what will happen again with Andrea.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Except that the recon isn't even in the air, could you please stop reporting false information?

Agreed.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
I can't believe I nailed both intensity and landfall of Andrea. This is great news as that part of FL was in a moderate drought.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon is on the runway:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
FYI

A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1230 PM EDT for eastern
Pinellas and western Hillsborough counties...

At 1202 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. Located near Busch Gardens... or near
Tampa... moving northeast at 35 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Busch Gardens.
University of South Florida.
Lettuce Lake park.

This includes Interstate 4 between exits 1 and 5.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are in the path of the tornado go to a small interior room in
a strong and well constructed building. Cars and Mobile homes are not
safe. If no shelter is available... lie flat in a ditch or culvert and
cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT Thursday evening
for western Florida.


Lat... Lon 2814 8254 2809 8233 2789 8242 2790 8246
2792 8248 2786 8248 2785 8246 2781 8247
2788 8260 2787 8255 2793 8254 2793 8257
2796 8256 2797 8260
time... Mot... loc 1605z 210deg 29kt 2803 8245
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Recon reported 65 mph winds.


Except that the recon isn't even in the air, could you please stop reporting false information?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
College of DuPage Meteorology

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes.

Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1157 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1156 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1138 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1134 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1111 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 925 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 1018 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 901 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 958 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Afternoon all...

Can't stay long, but I have to say it was a bright sunshiny morning until Andrea showed up... lol...

The winds have picked up nicely, prolly gusting to 25 occasionally, and clouds are scudding off towards the NW. We had some overcast skies earlier, but the sun is currently out. I have a feeling we'll be getting some rain this evening and tomorrow morning as part of the outer bands.

Gotta run, but will be checking in as much as possible during the day.
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Lots of flooding now of low lying areas all around Orlando as the ground is now super saturated from all the heavy rains since April 1st. I now have seen 18.60" of rain since April 1st
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I know everybody's attention is on Andrea but this has got to be the strongest wave ever for so early in the season. I suspect 92L is coming soon.


No. Its receiving 40-50 Knots of shear and wont survive it. That's why the NHC is not interested in it. If it was going to be an invest, the NHC would've mentioned it by now. Look at Atmospheric data before looking at satellite and saying "Oh thats going to be an invest"
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Recon reported 65 mph winds.
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Quoting Patrap:
Mark down landfall spot Cedar Key.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
The planned GOES-13 return to normal service that was scheduled for today has been postponed. This was done due to a Critical Weather Day and also because of Tropical Storm Andrea. Although there is no scheduled date as to when it will be in normal service, it will be no sooner than June 10th. There are no operational issues and re-activation is still proceeding nominally .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
scattered showers south

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting allancalderini:
Good morning everyone.I see Andrea may strength to 70mph I remember saying 60 and 65 I may not be too off anyways looks like the Cmc forecast perfectly the intensity of Andrea and if Andrea would have form in another place she would have probably reach hurricane status.

She wont strengthen very much, if at all. She's nearing landfall and recon most likely wont get to it to confirm any kind of stronger intensity.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1405
Can someone please post the radar? I haven't seen one in forever!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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