Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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313
WGUS52 KJAX 061640
FFWJAX
FLC019-062230-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FF.W.0007.130606T1640Z-130606T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A RAINBANDS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDDLEBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL ALREADY EXPERIENCED.

FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTH FORK OF BLACK CREEK
FROM THE CAMP BLANDING AREA TO NEAR MIDDLEBURG. THE FLOOD CREST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH FORK OF BLACK CREEK BY THIS EVENING AND
MAY REPEAT THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED IN EARLY MAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.



LAT...LON 3000 8202 3007 8193 3004 8174 2995 8174
2994 8175 2992 8176 2992 8177 2990 8182
2990 8184 2989 8188 2991 8188 2991 8190
2994 8202



SANDRIK
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Tampa
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


umm yes it can we've seen it before


that bird better do double time if it want to catch it before landfall


True dat!!! Such as...

"A general rule of thumb is that the shear must be 20 knots or less for intensification to occur. Most instances of rapid intensification of hurricanes occur when the wind shear is 10 knots or less. However, large and powerful hurricanes can be resistant to shear values as high as 40 knots, as demonstrated by Hurricane Wilma (Figure 1). We often see tropical disturbances under 10 knots of wind shear that do not develop. Why? Oftentimes, this is because cold, dry air aloft associated with an upper level trough of low pressure is interfering with development. Tropical cyclones develop most readily when an upper level anticyclone (high pressure system aloft) is present overhead."



"Figure 1. Wind shear plot of Hurricane Wilma at 00GMT October 25, 2005. At time time, Wilma had just intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and a 955 mb pressure, despite the presence of 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. Just to the west of Wilma one can see wind shear values of 120 knots, associated with the jet stream"

Link
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Quoting TBayEyes:


I see. So regardless of how much energy is inside a wave (like the one in the central atlantic) or a blob (like pre andrea), the energy from 35kts of shear is more powerful.

Just trying to see this from physics perspective. I know that's a basic understanding since there are so many other factors.

I just see the shear and the tropical wave as being two opposing forces.

I guess my question would be, in light of the idea (fact?) that 35kt of wind shear energy will overcome tropical development 99% of the time, is it even possible for a tropical system to "force" the wind shear to change as was alluded earlier in regards to developing upper level ridging?

I see how the path of the shear could change with that, I am just wondering what kind of force (energy in motion) could eventually face that 1% chances against 35kts to develop a TS, and more to the point, the relationship to that force to different wind shear speeds (and eventually vectors and angular velocity).

Make sense?

Say a system has 10^20 joules/day of energy and gets blown away by 35kts of shear in 2 days.

How long is it going to take that same system to get blown away in 40kts of shear.

Just a curiosity, I know we are much more sophisticated than that, but it helps me to think of base physics in understanding why predictions can be wrong or right, and especially analysis after the facts are in.

Thanks all for taking the time to answer basic questions and helping to "steer" me in the path of least resistance to my limited weather knowledge.

Most systems do create upper level ridging, and this allows the storms to attempt to make the conditions for themselves to be better, but if the upper level ridge become unstacked with the low pressure area, the ridge would then begin to shear the system. These storms have a lot of low level resistance but typically cant put up a fight in the upperlevels. One of the worst situations a tropical system can get is when there are strong trade winds pushing the lower levels of the storm pushing west, and strong upper level winds pushing the upper levels of the storm east, essentially ripping the storm apart. Basically shear is a killer for system, but it can be beneficial depending on the location. Regarding the tropical wave east of the islands... the low level signature of the system will likely survive but the upper levels will be ripped to shreds.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes I did and its more than 1% so yeah as I said



yeah don't worry bud you will get your Cat 5 on top of you soon :D


I'd like some nice T-WAVES , not a CAT5. Big difference here.
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Probably not the first time I'm going to see that icon in my forecast this season.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
Training rains are causing urban widespread flooding in Sarasota, and Manatee counties. More that 4" have fallen here so far today.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
Heavy rain for parts of Eastern U.S.
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666. Sasha
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1228 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEDGEFIELD...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO...
AVALON PARK...
SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GENEVA...CHULUOTA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

* AT 1222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEDGEFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING
INCLUDE...WEDGEFIELD...BITHLO...CHRISTMAS...LAKE HARNEY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

197
WFUS52 KTBW 061633
TORTBW
FLC015-027-061700-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0018.130606T1633Z-130606T1700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1233 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO OVER EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...OR 16 MILES WEST OF LA
BELLE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
RURAL NORTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
RURAL SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTY.
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2685 8177 2708 8175 2713 8156 2693 8155
2681 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 202DEG 36KT 2687 8167
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting daddyjames:


Patrap,

Just wanted to say - Kudos to you! I remember years ago, when I was predominantly a lurker, you putting this all together.

Fantastic - and a big "pat on the back" from all of us at WU.



Lots of people were and are involved in the effort the past 5 years and were very proud of the Conference this week and its future impact to come.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Tornado warning for Orange, Seminole, and Volusia Counties. until 12:59pm
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Quoting OminousCloud:
was wondering, is it possible.that.another Low could form at
the tail end of Andrea?
possibly.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes I did and its more than 1% so yeah as I said



yeah don't worry bud you will get your Cat 5 on top of you soon :D
The irony of that response. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i think your jumping the gun little


Not trying to argue with you, just saying that with the interaction with land on two sides and the fact water temps are below 80 where she's at I see her starting to weaken.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Surprised that Andrea intensified.

Not bad.




yep me two last night when i went too bed it looked like crap still and this AM it was vary close too a hurricane not a bad way too start the season
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on approach

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College of DuPage Meteorology

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 1228 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1218 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1217 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1157 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1156 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1138 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1134 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1111 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 925 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WARNING
MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 1018 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 901 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 958 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting TylerStanfield:

-_- Cant you read the rest of a comment before responding? I said 99% Tropical Cyclones cant survive it, meaning its not impossible.


yes I did and its more than 1% so yeah as I said

Quoting CaribBoy:
Nothing interesting in the 12Z GFS for the Leewards. Sigh...


yeah don't worry bud you will get your Cat 5 on top of you soon :D
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654. wxmod
Interesting clouds next to Arctic Ice Cap today. MODIS satellite images.




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Quoting Patrap:


Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!


Patrap,

Just wanted to say - Kudos to you! I remember years ago, when I was predominantly a lurker, you putting this all together.

Fantastic - and a big "pat on the back" from all of us at WU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Shear lessened down to 10-20 Knots and that's why she got her act together. No tropical system can survive 35+ Knots of shear. Never say never, but 99% of Tropical Systems can survive it.


I see. So regardless of how much energy is inside a wave (like the one in the central atlantic) or a blob (like pre andrea), the energy from 35kts of shear is more powerful.

Just trying to see this from physics perspective. I know that's a basic understanding since there are so many other factors.

I just see the shear and the tropical wave as being two opposing forces.

I guess my question would be, in light of the idea (fact?) that 35kt of wind shear energy will overcome tropical development 99% of the time, is it even possible for a tropical system to "force" the wind shear to change as was alluded earlier in regards to developing upper level ridging?

I see how the path of the shear could change with that, I am just wondering what kind of force (energy in motion) could eventually face that 1% chances against 35kts to develop a TS, and more to the point, the relationship to that force to different wind shear speeds (and eventually vectors and angular velocity).

Make sense?

Say a system has 10^20 joules/day of energy and gets blown away by 35kts of shear in 2 days.

How long is it going to take that same system to get blown away in 40kts of shear.

Just a curiosity, I know we are much more sophisticated than that, but it helps me to think of base physics in understanding why predictions can be wrong or right, and especially analysis after the facts are in.

Thanks all for taking the time to answer basic questions and helping to "steer" me in the path of least resistance to my limited weather knowledge.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Near the center, but it doesnt mean that the system couldnt have the winds there...


Also keep in mind the water temps in the Northern GOM are only 78-79 degrees, not a lot of fuel left for her now that she moved off that warm eddy in the deeper waters....
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Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Taz :o)

I'm not so sure either on that. I think they might find 60mph but not 70. And that's if they get there in time. She is to close to land now and will probably start her down grad quickly after land fall.

just saying

Taco ;o)




so ture
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I know everybody's attention is on Andrea but this has got to be the strongest wave ever for so early in the season. I suspect 92L is coming soon.

Should we give him a hand?
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Awesome to see PortLight doing so much Patrap!

2 new Tornado warnings inland of Sarasota now
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
Surprised that Andrea intensified.

Not bad.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you do not no that Andrea has past here peak olny the recon will tell you that i bet the recon will find a hurricane or a 70 mph TS

Hey Taz :o)

I'm not so sure either on that. I think they might find 60mph but not 70. And that's if they get there in time. She is to close to land now and will probably start her down grad quickly after land fall.

just saying

Taco ;o)
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624
WFUS52 KMLB 061628
TORMLB
FLC095-117-127-061715-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0019.130606T1628Z-130606T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1228 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEDGEFIELD...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO...
AVALON PARK...
SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GENEVA...CHULUOTA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

* AT 1222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEDGEFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING
INCLUDE...WEDGEFIELD...BITHLO...CHRISTMAS...LAKE HARNEY.

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.



LAT...LON 2878 8113 2879 8097 2867 8096 2834 8106
2837 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 197DEG 36KT 2844 8111



15
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Uhhhh, Sandy had no closed eyewall for a while and maintained Hurricane Status.

But that's the criteria that gets a storm classified as a hurricane, and this system has no core anyway, so how would it be classified as a hurricane. -_-
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting 69Viking:


Have you looked at a recent satellite? All signs of a weakening system are there. I wouldn't be surprised if they call off the last recon mission.




i think your jumping the gun little
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Quoting Patrap:


Dr. Masters Monday night t the portlight "Getting it right" conference in Atlanta.

Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!


That's awesome, keep up the great work!
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this morning about 4-5am wind was actually howling here and driving torrential rain for awhile. we are in light rain now but it looks like the heavier bands will impact off and on within the next few hours. E.CENT.FL getting a little more than expected from Andrea.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Have you looked at a recent satellite? All signs of a weakening system are there. I wouldn't be surprised if they call off the last recon mission.

Near the center, but it doesnt mean that the system couldnt have the winds there...
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Almost High Tide, Looks like we were close but will be spared. This is looking out my back door.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543


Dr. Masters Monday night at the portlight "Getting it right" conference in Atlanta.

Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Nothing interesting in the 12Z GFS for the Leewards. Sigh...
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

There's no closed eyewall taz, its not a hurricane. 70 mph is plausible if recon were to find it...


Uhhhh, Sandy had no closed eyewall for a while and maintained Hurricane Status.
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Quoting TideWaterWeather:


The right Shear (horizontal and not vertical) from the right direction can actually help a tropical system sometimes by ventilating it.

That's when shear is "around the system" which takes the divergence off the system, if shear is OVER the system, it will not help it whatsoever...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you do not no that Andrea has past here peak olny the recon will tell you that i bet the recon will find a hurricane or a 70 mph TS


Have you looked at a recent satellite? All signs of a weakening system are there. I wouldn't be surprised if they call off the last recon mission.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh yeah what you call this


It's on the runway, meaning it hasn't lifted off yet and it certainly hasn't transmitted any observations and even if it did -- it wouldn't be finding 65mph surface winds in Mobile.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting SiestaCpl:
Nice to see you here this year Patrap! Hope your winter was cool and wonderful on your side of the gulf!


Thank you....'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting Tazmanian:



you do not no that Andrea has past here peak olny the recon will tell you that i bet the recon will find a hurricane or a 70 mph TS

There's no closed eyewall taz, its not a hurricane. 70 mph is plausible if recon were to find it...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
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Nice to see you here this year Patrap! Hope your winter was cool and wonderful on your side of the gulf!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
Storm is roughly 50 miles to the coast now...moving very quickly. Recon won't make it to the center before it moves ashore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.