Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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recon is out of time they sould turn a round
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will check in later :o) Everyone in South central florida please stay safe....

Taco :o)
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Quoting SLU:


It's not this wave but the one after it near 35w that the GFS is excited about.
Looks like Alex 2010 all over again,and Dolly 2008 all over again.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
768. SLU
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Next area to watch as some of the models have been developing this wave in the Caribbean come next week.



It's not this wave but the one after it near 35w that the GFS is excited about.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting Klolly23:

Fruitville and I75 area. Just west of i75
Quoting Klolly23:

Fruitville and I75 area. Just west of i75


That one went over us as well along Lakewood Ranch Blvd but not severe effects here...so sorry to hear about your tree and house!! Stay safe there as a bit more in on the way! Call your insurance company and they should immediately send a local company out to block off the broken window if you call and ask. They do not want further rain damage and if there are people available they can come even during the storm.

We have worked in the hurricane/storm response industry for ten years so we have seen a bit of this. Three direct tornado hits to our car, RV and home.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
Just got blasted by the first wave of Tropical Storm Andrea here in Central NC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GFS seems to think the wave in the Central Atlantic might develop in 10 to 12 days.

I saw that too.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Do you think Andrea will stay at about the same pressure or deepen further with baroclinic forcing as it heads inland and up the coast? I'm asking the knowledgeable people here like tropicalanalystwx13.

Baroclinic forcing won't allow the storm to weaken as quickly as a separate tropical storm without the influence of it [baroclinic forcing] taking the same storm track would, but it won't sustain the storm's current intensity either.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
I just walked outside at the University of Florida in Gainesville, FL. It is a slight drizzle and minimal amount of wind. Rainfall & wind has varried depending on when a rain band has passed through. It looks like Gainesville will be near the bulleye with this storm.
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The tail is getting quite large. I wonder if a piece will break off and form its own circulation?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10814
Current Severe Map:


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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
watch my new video
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So, how's that 45 mph forecast verifying?
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757. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Next area to watch as some of the models have been developing this wave in the Caribbean come next week.


I give 12 of live to that wave
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756. 7544
her tail is getting larger at this hour looks like ssome strong storms forming there .
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Dude, be nice.

Taking a break -_- So done right now.
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754. Sasha
I just modified it... not sure what happened when I cut and pasted it - but yeah, it might have had something to do with the 666 number - LOL!!!
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Wow, Post 666 did a number on the blog! Imagine that.

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Going to take a break...
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

-_- I give up. Ignored.

Its not that its bad, but I just hate the poor information and lack of reasoning with reality.
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Levi do you think Andrea will deepen with baroclinic forcing as it heads inland and up the coast or is 997 mb about it?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Next area to watch as some of the models have been developing this wave in the Caribbean come next week.



But the GFS and CMC send it north of the Caribbean.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

-_- I give up. Ignored.


Dude, be nice.
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Quoting tamipeach:
Wow that was pretty fast, sun out here in Clearwater... Are we done now?
I believe we are... Nws still calls for rain and storms through tonight, but I don't see any redeveloping squall lines out there, so I'd be willing to bet it's over. Winds should peak in the next couple of hours
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Where in SRQ are you? it is quieting down here for the moment...but possible waterspout near the airport.

Fruitville and I75 area. Just west of i75
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Next area to watch as some of the models have been developing this wave in the Caribbean come next week.


-_- I give up. Ignored.
P.S. Let me know how that works out for you.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Is still June 6 so don't expect much.


After the one in the CATL which will move north of us... all tropical waves will pass to the south (over the Windwards Islands) per 12Z GFS. That's actually what disappoints me.
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Recon plane is en route to Andrea. You can track it here.

Andrea's center looks like it's getting overcome by shear now. Her strengthening is probably over. The question is what kind of wind is still near the center. So far I haven't seen impressive reports over land.
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already inundated by rain that has already fallen...ground is totally saturated...they are calling for at least 3-5" in our area by tomorrow afternoon...so glad today was the last day of school as the entire lot was already a lake...tis the season to watch weather, fa la la la la...la la la la
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Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
Wow that was pretty fast, sun out here in Clearwater... Are we done now?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Next area to watch as some of the models have been developing this wave in the Caribbean come next week.

If it develops where do you think it will go after entering the Caribbean? And does anyone think Barry will be our first hurricane of the season? I'm going to say no, but want to see what you all think.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
12Z map out low added back to TW
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I know we are all on this storm, but don't forget that the Samaras funerals are today.
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Quoting SiestaCpl:
Hi KKolly..sorry about that window!! Hope all is well there! Here in Lakewood Ranch there have been three warnings but no confirmed damage yet.

I heard cracking and looked up and saw a shadow coming towards me, then boom! Never jumped so high or screamed so loud. Lol
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

;)


Is Tyler HurricaneDean07?
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Quoting Patrap:


Meeting Dr. Jeff Masters Monday evening in Atlanta at the Portlight "Getting it right" Conference

Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!


Who is with Dr. Masters?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10814
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Do you think Andrea will stay at about the same pressure or deepen further with baroclinic forcing as it heads inland and up the coast? I'm asking the knowledgeable people here like tropicalanalystwx13.

Supposedly its supposed to phase with the low level trough and weaken.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I completely forgot who you were for a second. Glad to see your still around.

Who are you talking abou-
looks at avatar
Oh.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado outbreak ongoing in Florida..



Lots of small tornadoes so far with more on the way for Orlando.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
GFS seems to think the wave in the Central Atlantic might develop in 10 to 12 days.


Still la la land. Disregard for now.
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Do you think Andrea will stay at about the same pressure or deepen further with baroclinic forcing as it heads inland and up the coast? I'm asking the knowledgeable people here like tropicalanalystwx13.
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Look for the Tornado Warnings to start firing up again soon. "On The East Coast" I know they are ongoing statewide however. We've had a bit of a break over here this morning.

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Water levels at Cedar Key tide station rising quickly @noaaocean

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Meeting Dr. Jeff Masters Monday evening in Atlanta at the Portlight "Getting it right" Conference

Portlight Partnering with American Red Cross in Disaster Response!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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