Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Quoting Levi32:


It was close, but definitely not, in my view. 70kt winds at 6k feet is like saying the recon measured 70kt flight-level winds, which it just did. That's reduced to 55kt as a surface estimate. I also still have yet to see a hurricane with an exposed center of circulation, though I'm sure now that I've said that someone will post a picture of one. ~990mb with an uncovered center isn't going to give sustained hurricane-force winds. This is and has been a strong tropical storm.

Here ya go, buddy. Lol.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285

985
WUUS54 KJAN 061827
SVRJAN
MSC123-129-061915-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0283.130606T1827Z-130606T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PULASKI MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BURNS BY 150 PM CDT...
HOMEWOOD BY 205 PM CDT...
HOMEWOOD BY 210 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.



LAT...LON 3229 8947 3212 8948 3214 8970 3229 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 270DEG 7KT 3223 8960
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Latest cyclone models, a little further inland.


Well, that's going increase the flash flooding threat. Turn around...
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971. JLPR2
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Do we have 92l.


No, though in my opinion it deserves the tittle, but considering it is heading into the highest shear in the CATL it wont get tagged, it would be a waste of an invest.
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Typical June system. We saw it with Arlene in 2005, Alberto in 2006, and Barry in 2007.

(click to enlarge)


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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
is this old?

Don't know since your picture didn't work, but the URL text would indicate it's about 15 minutes ago.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why, if you don't mind me asking? Radar out of Tampa indicated winds at 6,500 feet of roughly 70 knots. The convection Andrea had near and over its center earlier this morning may have helped translate these winds down to the surface, albeit a little weaker.

If not a hurricane, it was close.


It was close, but definitely not, in my view. 70kt winds at 6k feet is like saying the recon measured 70kt flight-level winds, which it just did. That's reduced to 55kt as a surface estimate. I also still have yet to see a hurricane with an exposed center of circulation, though I'm sure now that I've said that someone will post a picture of one. ~990mb with an uncovered center isn't going to give sustained hurricane-force winds. This is and has been a strong tropical storm.
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Gust up to 40MPH at my home in WPB!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The El Reno supercell, 4k feet in the air:



Breathtaking scary! Thanks for posting.



Nea in Naples should receive his rains now ...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why, if you don't mind me asking? Radar out of Tampa indicated winds at 6,500 feet of roughly 70 knots. The convection Andrea had near and over its center earlier this morning may have helped translate these winds down to the surface, albeit a little weaker.

If not a hurricane, it was close.

Yeah... Im sure it got upwards of 65-70 mph.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1347
Quoting Patrap:
The Reno EF 5 upgrade was determined by the Oklahoma University Mobile doppler Radar Imagery and doppler Velocities over the weekend.

Also from reviewing the Chaser Images of the Vortex over many minutes.

Presslord and I had a Long conversation with Dr. Masters on that subject at the conference Monday evening. Plus TWC had a long segment Tuesday evening on it as well.



Pat
Did Dr Masters say what rating he thought it had been?
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 18:10Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 17:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 83°55'W (28.9N 83.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 109 miles (176 km) to the WSW (241°) from Gainesville, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,356m (4,449ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 106° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 0:23
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the quadrant at 0:87
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 023/13 17:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT 087/26 18:04:08Z
Banding on radar indicating center

is this old?....993mb
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The El Reno supercell, 4k feet in the air:


Whoa! In my days as a private pilot, that's the last thing I would have liked to have seen in my flight path. It looks even more impressive from the air than it did on radar.
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is this old?
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Do we have 92l.




NO and we likey wont have 92L out of that wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Quoting CybrTeddy:
After Andrea moves inland, it's unlikely we will see another storm within the next two-three weeks as the downward MJO phase returns. The CFS shows an upward phase returning by late June-early July, so something to watch out for in the far future.

Mentioned that earlier... :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1347
Quoting Patrap:
Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!

Good afternoon, Nigel. Very wet day up here in the SE United States. How are things down your way?
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Andrea's effects in my area.

Today's rainfall 2.82"

Highest gust 29 mph

Rain since June first: 5.89"
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This is so Arlene-like......pressures similiar too.


classic june system.....quite large too
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Recon has 993 MB Pressure, and flight level winds gusting to 80 mph, Surface winds are around 60 mph.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1347
951. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon is there:)

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 18:10Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 17:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 83°55'W (28.9N 83.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 109 miles (176 km) to the WSW (241°) from Gainesville, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,356m (4,449ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 106° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 0:23
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the quadrant at 0:87
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 023/13 17:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT 087/26 18:04:08Z
Banding on radar indicating center
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Anyone else on here in the South Broward area? I was just talking with my coworkers. Today we've seen almost no rain and its definitely been sunnier here than pretty much all of last week. So much for the staff hurricane party :-/
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The El Reno supercell, 40k feet in the air:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
After Andrea moves inland, it's unlikely we will see another storm within the next two-three weeks as the downward MJO phase returns. The CFS shows an upward phase returning by late June-early July, so something to watch out for in the far future.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24190
Andrea was probably a hurricane earlier this morning around 5-8am or very close to it.. Since this morning the cloud tops have warmed and the radar LLC looks ragged like a typical tropical storm. Since recon was missing from 4am-1:30pm we didn't get a good dropsone on intensity. A bouy did record a wind speed gust over hurricane strength this morning with sustained around 65mph that was 40mile from the LLC. Also this morning she had a small indication of a eye wall trying to form on her northern end but the shear and dry air wrapping into her precluded that. With a 990-991mb pressure she currently has...I would think her pressure this morning might of bottomed out slightly lower around 988-989. Overall she become a strong tropical storm...still the tornado threat is out there for most of southern and central florida up through Jacksonville as she comes inland in a few hours.
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While this is all going on a monster is brewing at 98W.

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The Reno EF 5 upgrade was determined by the Oklahoma University Mobile doppler Radar Imagery and doppler Velocities over the weekend.

Also from reviewing the Chaser Images of the Vortex over many minutes.

Presslord and I had a Long conversation with Dr. Masters on that subject at the conference Monday evening. Plus TWC had a long segment Tuesday evening on it as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Flight-level winds of 70 knots, surface winds of 55 knots...Andrea was probably a hurricane earlier this morning.



yeaaaaahhhhh........... NO
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Do we have 92l.
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The HH were to late...and the NHC is late with the wave.It looked like it could have been a T.D yesterday.No point in monitoring it now...
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Interesting situation in SE Alabama now. We are getting what looks to be some wraparound rain From Andrea. It almost looks like a secondary low is trying to form right over the Panhandle. We also have a cold front coming in from the west, so we might have some severe weather later as well.

Whatever happened with Andrea strengthening started about 0100 CST this morning. I was watching our storms that were moving south from a fairly strong trough. Within 30 minutes, all the storms reversed direction and started move NNE. It was at that point that Andrea must have been reinforced by the trough and started to use that energy to expand. I don't claim to understand the mechanisms involved but, in about 50 years of observing weather, I never saw anything like that happen before. I made the comment then that it looked like Andrea might turn into a 60 mph storm after all. We obviously still have a long way to go before we have a better understanding of how tropical storms really behave.
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Latest cyclone models, a little further inland.


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Hi all, we are getting rocked here in Cape Coral.

Stay safe all and turn on those NOAA Weather Radios.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Cars are not a damage indicator


They are when they're thrown significant distances.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24190
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Getting dark out to the west here on Hutchinson Island in Stuart Fl. Had a tornado warning a bit ago for western Martin and St.Lucie counties.
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935. VR46L
Quoting K8eCane:
Hurricane hunter and VR thanks for those sites. Im researching also


Your Welcome !

Honestly I cant recommend that site anymore highly than I do .

Still have alot of it to do but has enhanced My Knowledge
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672
WUUS54 KJAN 061814
SVRJAN
ARC003-017-LAC035-MSC055-125-151-061915-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0281.130606T1814Z-130606T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AVON...HOLLANDALE...GREENVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...DERMOTT...
NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ROLLING FORK...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SNYDER TO
SHELBURN MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MONTROSE BY 120 PM CDT...
EUDORA BY 130 PM CDT...
DERMOTT AND CHICOT JUNCTION BY 145 PM CDT...
GLEN ALLAN BY 150 PM CDT...
GLEN ALLAN BY 155 PM CDT...
GRACE...LAKE VILLAGE AND ROLLING FORK BY 200 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.



LAT...LON 3339 9175 3339 9147 3357 9145 3357 9135
3352 9132 3352 9126 3356 9124 3353 9121
3353 9104 3298 9067 3292 9066 3281 9118
3294 9131 3296 9127 3300 9126 3301 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 266DEG 18KT 3339 9162 3289 9114



BYB
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128736
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why, if you don't mind me asking? Radar out of Tampa indicated winds at 6,500 feet of roughly 70 knots. The convection Andrea had near and over its center earlier this morning may have helped translate these winds down to the surface, albeit a little weaker.
6,500 feet is a long way down.
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Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 83°55'W (28.9N 83.9167W)
Center Fix Location: 109 miles (176 km) to the WSW (241°) from Gainesville, FL, USA.
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
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Things may change at post season report.
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Good afternoon friends!
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Quoting Levi32:


I seriously doubt it.

Why, if you don't mind me asking? Radar out of Tampa indicated winds at 6,500 feet of roughly 70 knots. The convection Andrea had near and over its center earlier this morning may have helped translate these winds down to the surface, albeit a little weaker.

If not a hurricane, it was close.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Dropsonde got 993 mb.
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927. Mikla
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I will post this for everyone.
NWS:
Link

Is really all you need. I will look for other online sources but the NWS has the best of it I have seen so far.

NWS Jetstream Learning here
Satellite Imagery Training here
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Quoting Patrap:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061728Z - 061900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR POLK COUNTY TX
S/SEWD INTO BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
INTERSECTING A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE POLK
COUNTY TX STORM. AGITATED CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF THIS WIND SHIFT LINE TOWARD THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE DAY. 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /APPROACHING
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-40 KT WILL AID IN
ORGANIZATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ADEQUATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH...LEADING TO
SEVERE HAIL THREAT. PW VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER INCREASE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IN
ADDITION TO HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AND EXPECTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 06/06/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28779711 29519739 30349678 30779603 30959503 30679437
30559357 30549286 30289267 29869273 29539295 29279347
28129591 28149650 28779711


It's eerily calm here, hot, still, and cumulus floating around
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does anyone have an image or radar loop of the marathon area from last night? when they had the tornado warning, I checked it out on the radar and I have NEVER seen a waterspout actually visible on radar. I have never seen such well defined hook echoes offshore as I did last night off of marathon.
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Hurricane hunter and VR thanks for those sites. Im researching also
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.