Andrea Intensifies to a 60 mph Tropical Storm, Spawns 5 Tornadoes in Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

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Tropical Storm Andrea has exceeded expectations. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane flying through Andrea near 3 am EDT found that a strong band of heavy thunderstorms with moderate turbulence and intense lightning had wrapped partway around the center, and Andrea had intensified into a respectable tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 997 mb. The intensification occurred despite the presence of a large area of dry air to the storm's west, and high wind shear of 25 knots. Satellite loops show that Andrea has expanded in size this morning, and its heavy thunderstorms have become more intense. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band well away from the center, extending from Tampa southwestwards over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large slot of dry air behind this band, and Andrea may be able to close this intrusion of dry air off early this afternoon, and build additional heavy thunderstorms near its center. However, given the continued presence of dry air and increasing wind shear, and little time before landfall, it will be difficult for Andrea to reach hurricane strength before landfall occurs early this evening--though I won't rule out intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" that have the potential to cause flash flooding will be the storm's main threat. Carrabelle, near Apalachicola, reported 4.5" of rain in a 5-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. Tornadoes in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands are also a concern, and the storm had already spawned five tornadoes as of 9 am EDT. Bands of heavy thunderstorms with embedded rotating thunderstorms capable of generating tornadoes where over both the west and east coasts of Florida between 6 am - 8am, triggering tornado warnings in the counties near Fort Lauderdale and Tampa Bay. A tornado hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT, injuring one person, damaging homes, and downing trees and power lines. Two other tornadoes were reported on Florida's east coast, one in Broward County, and one in Palm Beach County. Andrea also spawned two tornadoes southeast of Tampa Bay between 2:30 am and 4 am EDT Thursday, but damage was minor. Most of South and Central Florida are under a tornado watch today. A storm surge of 2 - 5 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. As of 9 am EDT Thursday, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels just over 1 foot near Tampa and Apalachicola on Florida's Gulf Coast.

We won't have any new wind measurements from the Hurricane Hunters until about 3 pm EDT. Buoy 42036, 122 miles west-northwest of Tampa, reported sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, between 7 am - 8 am EDT, when the center of Andrea was located about 60 miles to the south-southwest. Winds at a personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola hit 39 mph at 9 am EDT. Winds at Cedar Key were sustained at 28 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at 8:33 am EDT.



Figure 1. Composite radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 9 am EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Andrea gave us a lake (LakeWorthFinn)
... in our yard this morning
Andrea gave us a lake

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Quoting bigwes6844:
what part u in?


Fort Walton Beach and Destin area.
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Quoting sar2401:

Really? We have spammers and trolls here? I'm shocked, shocked, I tells you. :-)
Dammit Jim
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from local Met: JUST IN: The National Weather Service has confirmed that a tornado touched down this morning in The Acreage with winds at least 100 mph. Steve Weagle will update us as soon as he hears anything else from the NWS.
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How strong is the shear in the mid Atlantic where the wave is headed?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2955



Convective burst still growing in coverage despite the shear.

Almost like these systems are just ignoring shear this season.
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1119. Skyepony (Mod)
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The wave in the Atlantic wants to have a name to.I think it was in 2010 that some invest went from a 0% chance to a 60% chance..it was impacting the gulf coast....
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1117. 900MB
Quoting hurricanes2018:
wow!!


Impressive. Verde type storm already?
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
tropical wave everyone is talking about
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1114. Patrap
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Getting noisy here again in West Boynton....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
So MLC, didn't you promise us all a coke if 91L developed? ;)

Without being smug though -- I honestly doubted that 91L would become Andrea, and I certainly didn't think it would become a 65-70mph Tropical Storm.


You're right, and it was three cokes, one each for three folks! :) Good memory. You're the first one that has mentioned it, so yeah, send me an address in wumail and I'll get you a soda! :) I've already had mine to choke down the crow. ;P

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Bulk shear, richardson numbers, and cape are still increasing across southern LA and southwest texas this afternoon. GFS is now also predicting the formation of a cutoff low just north and east of the houston area within 72 hours.

What this means is that the tornado thread down here is going to rise significant, if this trend continues I would not be surprised to see SPC go moderate risk tonight or tomorrow. System will end up transitioning along the gulf coast over the next 3 days bringing severe weather to pretty much everyone who was not caught up in Andrea. So keep your eyes open folks its going to be a hellacious few days.
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still at 10 ft
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newbie here in daytona FL area... nothing but a lot of rain and some small gusts of wind... however, i am grateful for all the posts and updates. can someone post another image of what is brewing at 98w.. thanks
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1108. Skyepony (Mod)
Dropsonde

Coordinates: 27.1N 82.6W
Location: 56 miles (90 km) to the NW (305°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 200° (from the SSW) 35 knots (40 mph)
1000mb 63m (207 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 21.9°C (71.4°F) 195° (from the SSW) 37 knots (43 mph)
925mb 742m (2,434 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.9°C (66.0°F) 220° (from the SW) 43 knots (49 mph)
850mb 1,471m (4,826 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 14.3°C (57.7°F) 220° (from the SW) 42 knots (48 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:55Z
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Can anyone post the earliest model run that called this storm? A lot of people allude to the CMC getting it right. I'd like to see it when it first knew what was going on.
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1106. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Yeah, it'd have to be a tree-top flyer for some time yet under significant upper-level shear. But, if the energy is there and can be maintained over warming waters westwards until it can get a window of opportunity......if, if, but stranger things have happened. ;) Probably won't develop, but imo, it has considerably better conditions than Andrea has had and I didn't think it would develop either.

Let's ask StormTrackerScott. The heck with the NHC, he's my go-to guy now for tropical weather forecasts. :-)
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2:42pm - Cedar Key, FL tidal observation measures TS-force winds, sustained 34 knots (39 mph). Surge at 2.54ft. #Andrea
Retweeted by James Spann
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So MLC, didn't you promise us all a coke if 91L developed? ;)

Without being smug though -- I honestly doubted that 91L would become Andrea, and I certainly didn't think it would become a 65-70mph Tropical Storm.
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Hmmmm. Perhaps I will be having yet another serving of crow........



Latest convective burst is quite vigorous and there is a southern inflow band forming along with that, neither of those seem to be hindered by the shear so far.

Going to take a look at the shear forecasts and see what things look like in 36 hours, perhaps our wave has a chance to be barry.
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1101. nigel20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Looks like Andrea/her remnants are going to drench pretty much the entire East Coast.


Good afternoon MA!
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Pressure down to 29.71
Peak wind around 30
1.34" of rain today, 4.83" for the month.
West Boynton Beach, FL (in Palm Beach County)
More rain on the way.
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High risk day

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It seems like Andrea is moving NW now, as opposed to the N-NW before. I wonder how the gulf stream would play in if it took a path that kept it just barely offshore for a bit.
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Looks like landfall just occured:

Link
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1096. Sasha
Wow... There was a 100-year old live oak tree that went down in Orlando early this morning...  live oaks have a shallow root system, though...

Quoting icmoore:



This was a 200 year old Cedar tree, too.
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Quoting sar2401:

Looks impressive to me as well. Convection and organization appears to be getting better, not worse. If this "wall of shear" doesn't get it, it will certainly be classifed as a TD within the next 24 hours.


Yeah, it'd have to be a tree-top flyer for some time yet under significant upper-level shear. But, if the energy is there and can be maintained over warming waters westwards until it can get a window of opportunity......if, if, but stranger things have happened. ;) Probably won't develop, but imo, it has considerably better conditions than Andrea has had and I didn't think it would develop either.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Yeah it's only a matter of time before the East catches up. We had a really wet Winter and Spring that kept water temps down but now it hasn't rained in almost 4 weeks along my area of the Panhandle near the coast. Water temps went from 71 3 weeks ago to almost 80 today.
what part u in?
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1091. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon continuing down just off the sw coast of FL, flying through that convection in the tail of Andrea.. Mostly 50mph flight level winds with about 40-45mph winds at the surface.
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1090. sar2401
Quoting sonofagunn:


Florida, near St. Petersburg.

Thanks. It always helps to post the state for non-natives, especially since there's a Gulfport in AL and MS and probably every other state with a gulf and a port. :-)
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What is the wind for the wave.
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Good afternoon. Looks like Andrea/her remnants are going to drench pretty much the entire East Coast.

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Jose... Lol will always be the laughing stock of named storms
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Quoting bigwes6844:
wow look at the west GOM! compare towards the east!


Yeah it's only a matter of time before the East catches up. We had a really wet Winter and Spring that kept water temps down but now it hasn't rained in almost 4 weeks along my area of the Panhandle near the coast. Water temps went from 71 3 weeks ago to almost 80 today.
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If it wasn't for shear that spin up east of the Antilles looks like it could have been a pretty impressive storm for this time of year.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2955
1083. junie1
Quoting sunlinepr:
Quoting sunlinepr:
This wave looks better than andrea did when it was a TD
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1082. xcool
cannot i'm at work post no image rite now sorry
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1081. JNTenne
Savannah S. Carolina Area
Inland Chatham



Flash Flood Watch


Statement as of 10:50 AM EDT on June 06, 2013




... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina...
including the following areas... in southeast Georgia...
Bulloch... Candler... coastal Bryan... coastal Chatham... coastal
Liberty... coastal McIntosh... Effingham... Evans... inland
Bryan... inland Chatham... inland Liberty... inland McIntosh...
Jenkins... long... Screven and Tattnall. In southeast South
Carolina... Allendale... Beaufort... Charleston... coastal
Colleton... coastal Jasper... Dorchester... Hampton... inland
Berkeley... inland Colleton... inland Jasper and tidal Berkeley.

* Through Friday morning

* Tropical Storm Andrea will move northeast through southeast
Georgia and southeast South Carolina tonight into Friday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across
the area today... initially across southeast Georgia and then
across southern South Carolina later today. Due to a very moist
air mass in place... torrential rainfall is expected at
times... tapering off from south to north Friday morning.

* 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected over much of the watch
area through Friday morning... with locally higher amounts possible.
Localized flooding is possible... mainly where the heavier rain
falls in a short period of time as well as along the coast
especially around the times of high tide.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...
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wow look at the west GOM! compare towards the east!
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1079. sar2401
Quoting xcool:
sar2401 ?

Yes? If you're going to make a forecast about a non-existent storm, at least post some kind of model run pic or link to back up your statement. I see nothing in the 12z GFS that indicates a tropical storm named Barry is headed to the north Gulf coast.
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1078. icmoore
Quoting Patrap:


A possible tornado knocked a tree onto Yummy's in Gulfport during Tropical Storm Andrea. (Photo: David Ochoa, staff)



This was a 200 year old Cedar tree, too.
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Quoting Dragod66:


Looks better than Jose ;)
Looks better than Noel of 2001;)
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Quoting xcool:
12zzzz GFS Tropical Storm Barry to the N. Gulf Coast
really? u got the graph?
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Quoting sar2401:

Which state is this Gulfport in?


Florida, near St. Petersburg.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Very impressive for being early June.



Looks better than Jose ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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