Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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When will recon go back out if it stalls.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
If Andrea became a hurricane before landfall the amount of crow served on here would be enough to choke an elephant.
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Quoting presslord:


please don't tee it up like this for me...it's ssoo hard to resist...
resist resist don't do it
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Quoting RyanSperrey:


With the new Hurricane guidelines, if it has the wind's, but is extra-tropical in nature, it is still considered a Hurricane and will prompt Hurricane Warnings for any affected areas.

This change was due in large part to the disastrous Superstorm Sandy forecasting and discontinuation of Hurricane Warnings.


Ahhh gotchya..
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Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!

Well, my watershed is getting LOADED again.. sigh.. my estuary has been taking a beating for two weeks and now it will get worse. The LAST thing the St. Lucie needs is more Okeechobee water dumped into her.. I am in Atlanta attending the annual Waterkeeper Alliance meeting and will be meeting with our Apalachicola Riverkeeper Dan Tonsmeire in an hour or so.. his watershed especially that part in Georgia needs the water, so I guess it is an even wash....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think we all can agree the models were dead wrong about the strength of this system. If it stays visually impressive for another 4-6 hours there's a chance further strengthening may occur before landfall.


the CMC wasnt..
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Looks like that dry air will wrap around. Hopefully keep it in check. Looks like its slowed down a bit.
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Quoting islander101010:
looks like jacksonville and just to the north are in for almost 10 inches


please don't tee it up like this for me...it's ssoo hard to resist...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is a change from the prior runs that had an elongated system.


I think we all can agree the models were dead wrong about the strength of this system. If it stays visually impressive for another 4-6 hours there's a chance further strengthening may occur before landfall.
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Quoting weatherh98:



It would be baroclinic by then so it would not be a hurricane


With the new Hurricane guidelines, if it has the wind's, but is extra-tropical in nature, it is still considered a Hurricane and will prompt Hurricane Warnings for any affected areas.

This change was due in large part to the disastrous Superstorm Sandy forecasting and discontinuation of Hurricane Warnings.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF is showing quite a bit of strengthening taking place before landfall.

00 hrs.


24 hrs


That is a change from the prior runs that had an elongated system.
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819. beell

06/06 03Z SREF 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity-Valid 2PM EDT
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Quoting weatherh98:


There is no 92L


Unless you mean it will get designated
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looks like jacksonville and just to the north are in for almost 10 inches
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00z ECMWF is showing quite a bit of strengthening taking place before landfall.

00 hrs.


24 hrs
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Quoting weatherh98:


There is no 92L
I think we are,I didn't we have one yet.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
813. Skyepony (Mod)
Potential energy..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37782
Quoting RyanSperrey:
CMC is saying Andrea will actually have a second or third landfall in New England as a stronger storm than it's Florida Landfall as a strong Cat. 1 or weak Cat. 2, also with a larger wind field. Usually the CMC is bullish with tropical storms, but it has been right dead on with Andrea so far, so it's worth looking at for sure.

AT FLORIDA LANDFALL



NEW ENGLAND LANDFALL




It would be baroclinic by then so it would not be a hurricane
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Is the circulation in the GOM stalling out? What are the odds of Andrea becoming a Hurricane?


6.333 to 1.
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CMC is saying Andrea will actually have a second or third landfall in New England as a stronger storm than it's Florida Landfall as a strong Cat. 1 or weak Cat. 2, also with a larger wind field. Usually the CMC is bullish with tropical storms, but it has been right dead on with Andrea so far, so it's worth looking at for sure.

AT FLORIDA LANDFALL



NEW ENGLAND LANDFALL

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Quoting Andrebrooks:
I think invest 92L will get numbered today.


There is no 92L
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Is the circulation in the GOM stalling out? What are the odds of Andrea becoming a Hurricane?
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its getting that comma shape now..

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806. VR46L
Good Morning folks!!!

I had my doubts ...


Rammb IR

Loop embedded
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Quoting weatherh98:



I think you may be correct
I think invest 92L will get numbered today.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The NHC was forecasting no more than a 45 mph TS and now we have a 60 mph TS. So, for me this Storm has the chance to become a Hurricane before landfall. What do you think ?
I do.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
798 thanks
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Sitting on my porch this morning sipping my coffee expecting a nice breeze on the marsh, but not a lick of wind here yet in Savannah. Andrea must not have much of a gradient out ahead of her because it is a calm, dry morning here in coastal Georgia.
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801. beell

click image for storm reports.
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Quoting SLU:
This is a tropical depression.




I think you may be correct
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The NHC was forecasting no more than a 45 mph TS and now we have a 60 mph TS. So, for me this Storm has the chance to become a Hurricane before landfall. What do you think ?
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Good morning. Andrea did very well last night, it finally managed to punch into the dry air and wrap some convection around more of the center. It probably won't strengthen much more if at all though due to increasing shear, the potential for dry air ingestion, and the fact that it is nearing landfall. Still, it overachieved given the environment it was put in.

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WOW lighting just hit the tree in the back yard. Heck of a way to wake up. 60 mph what happened? need coffee
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Quoting SLU:
This is a tropical depression.

I agree. No idea why this isn't at least an invest.
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Up to 1 inch from 2AM now
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Quoting SLU:
This is a tropical depression.


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Quoting ncstorm:
5-7 day total precip map


Please remove this graphic...it's making me suicidal...
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It's going annular!

Lol JK

Good morning, looks like Andrea is dishing out some surprises
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790. SLU
This is a tropical depression.

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Gee, sure did pick the wrong day to drive from VA to SC.
Anyways, a large 3/4 banding eye has shown up on radar. Could strengthen a tad before landfall.
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5 mins old

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5-7 day total precip map
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so that big line sitting off the coast with what looks the worst of the weather will come through tampa mid morning. local mets already saying the storms are over 50000 ft. and showing tornadic spins. everyone will be out and about. its business as usual here today and people will be on the hwy still going to work etc. will be interesting.
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Day 2
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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