Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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883. MahFL
Quoting RyanSperrey:
Any one have the most recent sea surface pressure reading? I'm looking at Andrea and it was able to fight off the dry air and is rapidly tightening it's rotation, i'm almost ready to say we have a Hurricane on our hands.

Not entirely sure whats causing Andrea to strengthen so quickly this morning, but there ya have it.


997 mb.
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Quoting RyanSperrey:
Any one have the most recent sea surface pressure reading? I'm looking at Andrea and it was able to fight off the dry air and is rapidly tightening it's rotation, i'm almost ready to say we have a Hurricane on our hands.

Not entirely sure whats causing Andrea to strengthen so quickly this morning, but there ya have it.


I see 996 on the hurricane hunter site.
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Good Morning!
Andrea strengthened nicely overnight. I'm not sure if she'll strengthen further, but anything's possible!
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Quoting weatherh98:



Ill take the pan fried crow


Me too..I didn't see 60 mph winds coming ...imagine if there was no SW shear...(Maybe a little Pickapeppa sauce will kill the taste)
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Quoting Jwd41190:
Not to ask a dumb question...but Andrea appeared to strengthen over night. So my question is do most tropical cyclones strengthen over night more or in the day?


Different times of day doesn't matter for tropical cyclones to strengthen or weaken. It all depends on the environmental conditions such as sea surface temperatures, shear, etc.
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TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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Spinning up some tornados.

Tornado Warning for:
Martin
Palm Beach


looking better and better organized too.
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Not to ask a dumb question...but Andrea appeared to strengthen over night. So my question is do most tropical cyclones strengthen over night more or in the day?
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Quoting SomersetSquall:


Hurricane force wind warnings could still be issued by NHC after this system becomes extratropical if it still remains a threat, but that doesn't mean it's still a hurricane.


Fair enough sir :) cant argue with that.
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Quoting RyanSperrey:


With the new Hurricane guidelines, if it has the wind's, but is extra-tropical in nature, it is still considered a Hurricane and will prompt Hurricane Warnings for any affected areas.

This change was due in large part to the disastrous Superstorm Sandy forecasting and discontinuation of Hurricane Warnings.


Hurricane force wind warnings could still be issued by NHC after this system becomes extratropical if it still remains a threat, but that doesn't mean it's still a hurricane.
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Quoting Torito:
55MPH winds? am i looking at this wrong?....



No, it says 55, but it should be saying 60, it will fix on the next update, might be higher by then **its winds will LIKELY be higher than 60 next uopdate**
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Morning...raining pretty heavy in Largo at times, I see a line offshore that extends all the way down into the Yucatan.
Good Morning, yeah its pouring by me..going to be some street and low lying area flooding with this, and the gusts are picking up also..
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Any one have the most recent sea surface pressure reading? I'm looking at Andrea and it was able to fight off the dry air and is rapidly tightening it's rotation, i'm almost ready to say we have a Hurricane on our hands.

Not entirely sure whats causing Andrea to strengthen so quickly this morning, but there ya have it.
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Wow, it really strengthened over night....


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Quoting Jwd41190:


What is a CDO?


CDO is an acronym for central dense overcast. It is a symmetric area of heavy thunderstorm activity in the center of a mature tropical cyclone.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Central Dense Overcast


Oh ok cool...thanks.
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55MPH winds? am i looking at this wrong?....

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go figure? big bend is a hotbed for early season landfalls. yet during cv season the majors stay away
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Morning...raining pretty heavy in Largo at times, I see a line offshore that extends all the way down into the Yucatan.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Jwd41190:


What is a CDO?


Central Dense Overcast
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Quoting yonzabam:


Here, in Scotland, we're 5 hours ahead of Florida, but sunrise today was 4.30 am due to our northerly latitude.


I live in Maine, sunrise was about the same for us, just a bit earlier though :)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
\

Convection is wrapping nicely around the center. If we can get convection to form to the S of the center we may get a good CDO going


What is a CDO?
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They have two Andreas under the floaters,could we have Invest 92-L.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1185
856. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 282...

VALID 061052Z - 061215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 282 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ERN PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH 13Z. THERE
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE SEVERE THREAT OVER
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF WW 282.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ALONG ONE OF THE OUTER
BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ERN THIRD OF THE
FL PENINSULA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE CIRCULATION
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NRN END OF THIS BAND. LARGE HODOGRAPHS
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITH VWP DATA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.

TAMPA BAY VWP INDICATE HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA IN WAKE OF INITIAL LINE
OF STORMS. DEEPER CONVECTION MIGHT REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE PENINSULA UNTIL SECONDARY BAND
OVER THE ERN GULF APPROACHES THE WRN FL COAST AROUND 14-15Z.

..DIAL.. 06/06/2013
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andrea looks pretty improved there civicane
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Quoting Civicane49:
\

Convection is wrapping nicely around the center. If we can get convection to form to the S of the center we may get a good CDO going
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sunrise over fla



Here, in Scotland, we're 5 hours ahead of Florida, but sunrise today was 4.30 am due to our northerly latitude.
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precip is almost completed its wrap around of the coc

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Link
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1185
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sunrise over fla

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Quoting SLU:


CATL wave near 13n 45w


I took a look at that storm, it does look like it could temporarily develop into a decent Invest, but will get gobbled up and ripped apart by the ridging to it's north. If it does miraculously survive and develop, it would be a Fish storm.

It's not in a very healthy location for itself unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your outlook.
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good morning, i'm in southeast volusia; woke up to a light drizzle that is progressively getting stronger and winds are picking up. three tornado warnings with this first strong line of training showers Link
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I am in North Brevard and it is raining pretty hard. We already have ponding on the roads. The winds are gusty at times.
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Quoting Xandtar:
For those who are interested...

Personally, I'd like to try the Crow Creole... the pecan farmers here have to shoot them by the dozen each fall, maybe I'll have my chance.

http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm



Ill take the pan fried crow
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first of the visble coming in now here is sw atlantic

should get a full shot of ne gom within 20 mins or so

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Tornado warnings around this morning

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAINT CLOUD...

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841. SLU
Quoting RyanSperrey:


Judging by the wind field in the photo you posted, that's an Invest at best, with a line of strong thunderstorms to its north. Where exactly is this though?


CATL wave near 13n 45w
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For those who are interested...

Personally, I'd like to try the Crow Creole... the pecan farmers here have to shoot them by the dozen each fall, maybe I'll have my chance.

http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If Andrea became a hurricane before landfall the amount of crow served on here would be enough to choke an elephant.


I think I would deserve a big ol' plate
Quoting SLU:
Un-numbered TD




Sure is
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Quoting SLU:
Un-numbered TD



Judging by the wind field in the photo you posted, that's an Invest at best, with a line of strong thunderstorms to its north. Where exactly is this though?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


It's not quite over for Fort Myers/Palm Beach then. Is it moving E or more NE?
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Quoting presslord:


please don't tee it up like this for me...it's ssoo hard to resist...



:)))))

Now all you need is a long club to hit the ball
Quoting notanotherwrong:
a huge dry slot takeing over most of south and central florida i see



Dry air is probably going to get ingested...
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835. SLU
Andrea

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834. SLU
Un-numbered TD

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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