Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 983 - 933

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

GFDL Ensemble showing left-of-track rain swath:






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 345 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 281...

DISCUSSION...OUTER ERN BANDS OF TC ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN THE MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18025.


...THOMPSON


I just picked up 1.32" in over the last 45 minutes here in Longwood.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
Quoting SLU:
Anyone knows what time today GOES-13 will be back online?


15:45 UTC.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13341
SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 345 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 281...

DISCUSSION...OUTER ERN BANDS OF TC ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN THE MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18025.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stoopid1:
Good morning y'all, Andrea is kinda surprising this morning. Beat my expectations.

Kinda wonder how much rain Jackonville(near downtown) is going to get. Kinda hard finding good estimates.


A lot? For the week, I'm at 1" as of yesterday , approx. 1 mi. north of Emerson and just off St. Augustine Rd.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I bet fried crow might taste good. Some say it taste like chicken. Folks I'm just playing this morning.

Anyways look at this squall line coming ashore on the west coast of Florida.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
A man can only have so much pride..and that same pride can lead to your downfall...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
Anyone knows what time today GOES-13 will be back online?




*Update #21 *

GOES-13, at 75 degrees West, will return to GOES-East operations on
Thursday, June 6, 2013, at approximately 1534 -1545 UTC (first image at
1545 UTC). Derived products from GOES-13 will begin immediately
following the switchover.

GOES-13 re-activation is proceeding nominally. GOES-13 Sounder remains
off during the outgassing process. The outgassing is proceeding
nominally, and is being done to reduce noise and improve the medium and
short-wave sounder channel products. The outgassing will end on June 5,
2013, at approximately 0359 UTC followed by a cooling off period.
Sounder will be turned on and begin imaging on June 6, 2013, at
approximately 0030 UTC and will be 'within specifications' at
approximately 0359 UTC.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


In this video, from post 966, I can see a large circular storm coming out of Texas towards Andrea. Will this have much effect on each other's strength?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks kinda like Beryl when it was trying to close off last year when it was coming for Jacksonville.


Yeah, Thunderstorms are starting to strengthen on the West side of this System. Going to be interesting if it can fill the whole way around.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 515
It looks like the USA is trying to save ussually with a landfalling storm we would see a lot of HH out there now its been over 3 hrs since they left the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 749 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR TARPON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TARPON SPRINGS...CRYSTAL BEACH.
HOLIDAY.
PORT RICHEY...NEW PORT RICHEY.
JASMINE ESTATES...BAYONET POINT.
HUDSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
Anyone knows what time today GOES-13 will be back online?

I heard it comes back at 1545 UTC (11:45 am EDT) today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Looks kinda like Beryl when it was trying to close off last year when it was coming for Jacksonville.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Where's the crow for many on the blog. Baked or Fried? let me know



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wait for dr masters blog update but yes cmc nailed it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
964. SLU
Anyone knows what time today GOES-13 will be back online?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 27.7°N 85.1°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Where's the crow for many on the blog. Baked or Fried? let me know



You want a cookie or what? We get it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Meanwhile in Germany











what a mess that 3rd picture lots of fire wood after ya dry it all out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 515
Quoting belizeit:
Just wait they will update in a few minuts . Looking at the HH reports these readings were not contaminated and there were more than 1 reading of 70 MPH winds .


They were measured in rain and there was no correlation between the flight level winds and SFMR (SFMR > Flight), so they are characterized as "not believable".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Judging by the continually improving radar presentation, it looks like Andrea didn't get the memo about all that southwesterly shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where's the crow for many on the blog. Baked or Fried? let me know

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
Time to look at the ADT, which kinda agrees with the official advisory. Well, at least the Raw #s anyway.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2013 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 27:16:16 N Lon : 85:40:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.7mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -18.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.3 degrees

************************************************* ***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strong band of heavy thunderstorms and rain associated with Andrea is approaching to the west coast of the Florida peninsula.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile in Germany











Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far I've received 0.50" from the first band.

Unfortunately SFC SRH of 250 @ 1KM and 400+ @ 3K are starting to spread over my area so will have to an extra watchful eye for embedded supercells on the next band and ahead of it as it comes closer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Considering all the obstacles she has had to overcome i.e. shear and dry air I think she has done good for herself. I do think the CMC deserves a trophy what do you all say?


Shear was much weaker in across the Eastern Gulf and dry was not present. That is what people on this blog just wasn't getting yesterday when I said a 60 to 70 mph storm at landfall.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
She wont be strengthening much more after the next update, her northern end is looking less healthy, but her West end is looking much better
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I couldn't have called this any better. I mean really!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
946. SLU
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 061141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Can anyone confirm this?

Just wait they will update in a few minuts . Looking at the HH reports these readings were not contaminated and there were more than 1 reading of 70 MPH winds .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning folks. Got .96" of rain yesterday.

Tornado Watch 282 remains in effect until 1100 am EDT for the
following locations


FL
. Florida counties included are

Brevard Broward Charlotte
Citrus Collier DeSoto
Glades Hardee Hendry
Hernando Highlands Hillsborough
Indian River Lake Lee
Manatee Martin Miami-Dade
Okeechobee Orange Osceola
Palm Beach Pasco Pinellas
Polk St. Lucie Sarasota
Seminole Sumter



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very heavy rain here in Orlando this morning.

The Tampa Shield has been shattered!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1044
Nasty Thunderatorms coming through.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
941. beell

Wind shear-03Z (left), 09Z (right)

40 knots of shear nosing into the central gulf with the approach of the trough. 30-40 knots of shear over the Atlantic wave.

From the morning soundings-Winds at 200mb
Tallahassee: SW at (235°) 57 knots
Tampa: SW (230°) at 46 knots

Transition should be getting underway.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15358
Do you all think the small bend in Florida's coast is helping Andrea wind up a little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Can anyone confirm this?

The advisory still said 60 mph winds,Hurricane Hunter should be going out there in 4-5 hours if over water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING...

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 27.7N 85.1W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually I had a a very valid point as to why it may not form..Heavy shear and dry air.I was using common sense...


Yea but TC are dumb as hell, that's why they break everything in their way!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Going to be a loooooonnnnnggggggg year...... models wrong, NHC wrong, bloggers wrong... crow for everybody

jeessh


Models and the NHC had the forcasted path of this storm pegged from the start when it was just an invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Hi-res 1KM Florida Satellite, click for loop-de-loop.

Found on this page, I highly recommend it as a bookmark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Andrea looking pretty healthy this AM for a June TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of us ate some crow on this one. Chalk it up to shaking off the dust and getting back into it.i like mine grilled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 983 - 933

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.