Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SLU:


Well the models say it will track north of the Caribbean.

Some say that, Some dont show it at all, so it really isnt that much of a threat.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


SJ...sup and long time no see!




Hi Tigger, how have you been??
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Quoting thelmores:


DON'T SAY THAT WORD! THAT CITY NOT TO BE NAMED!!!

Nah..... I'm not superstitious! :D

Hey Junkie..... maybe this is one where the storm will come to you...... instead of you running after it!

Guess the cone is such that the Vortex could be over land or water as it heads towards the outer banks....


If this verifies, then the worst of the weather would pass over us...If it's off shore, then we'll be on her clean side. You know the routine with these early, lopsided systems...
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


SJ...sup and long time no see!


You know tropical weather brings out lots of riff raff..... John is like me...... he just can't help himself! :D
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 8 PM TWO doesn't have a word about the wave. I can't believe it.


That wave is about to run into strong south west winds which will impart 50+ knots of shear..

Link
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So what's the tornado risk gonna be like in Fl and up the E coast?


SJ...sup and long time no see!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Given the daily soaking rainfalls that some of the Florida peninsula has already received over the past week, I'm becoming very concerned about widespread flooding across the state. Satellite presentation of Tropical Storm Andrea suggests that the heaviest rainfall and deepest convection lies well to the south and east of the center which makes me quite surprised that at least Southwest Florida, if not all South Florida, has not been placed under a Flood Watch at the very least.
The problem is that we here in South Florida (Miami) have no received a drop of rain today,the Satellite presentation said it should be raining here in South Florida,but nothing!!!,this has been the story for the last 3 days with 80% chances of rain and thunderstorms,why is not raining here??? I just don't know??,I has been watching the satellite for the last 3 days and as soon as the heavy rain and thunderstorm approach the coast of Florida it dissipate??,go and ask the expert that predicted all this rain for South Florida.
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76. SLU
Quoting TylerStanfield:

It really doesnt pose a threat at developing in the next 48 hours. Even if it is impressive. You might see them mention it 3 or so days down the road when its in the Western Caribbean.


Well the models say it will track north of the Caribbean.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
800 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

...ANDREA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So what's the tornado risk gonna be like in Fl and up the E coast?


For you:

THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Home from work!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting StormJunkie:
lol thel...Just hoping they manage to get back to Omaha...


DON'T SAY THAT WORD! THAT CITY NOT TO BE NAMED!!!

Nah..... I'm not superstitious! :D

Hey Junkie..... maybe this is one where the storm will come to you...... instead of you running after it!

Guess the cone is such that the Vortex could be over land or water as it heads towards the outer banks....
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Quoting SLU:
Good sense still hasn't prevailed at the NHC concerning the CATL wave.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


It really doesnt pose a threat at developing in the next 48 hours. Even if it is impressive. You might see them mention it 3 or so days down the road when its in the Western Caribbean.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Our CATL wave has improved markedly with an area of low pressure forming along the wave axis and associated turning very visible on RGB loops: Link



but it will soon be hit with a wall of shear


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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 8 PM TWO doesn't have a word about the wave.

Not really surprised. Though its a potent wave, its not worth mentioning becuase it will be dealing with a TUTT feature that will bring 40-50 Knots of shear upon the system... No way of forming in that. It could pose a threat when it gets into the western caribbean though, just have to wait and see what it does...
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67. SLU
Good sense still hasn't prevailed at the NHC concerning the CATL wave.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ANDREA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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are we going to get a yellow with the tropical wave at 42 west at 8pm
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The 8 PM TWO doesn't have a word about the wave. I can't believe it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

ok, thanks

Crap, typo -_- just realized it. Along* *facepalm*
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that tropical wave at 42 west need to be watch!! its look better then the tropical storm right now..haha
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Minor Coastal flooding, especially allow the Northside of the bay as southerly winds will be driving water in and up.

ok, thanks
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
ppl lets go into tropics chat
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lol thel...Just hoping they manage to get back to Omaha...
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So what's the tornado risk gonna be like in Fl and up the E coast?


HEY SJ! NWS in Wilmington is calling for a slight risk because of Andrea.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes, Good Morning from here.

Any idea what a 2-4ft storm surge would do in Tampa Bay? Flooding?

Minor Coastal flooding, especially along the Northside of the bay as southerly winds will be driving water in and up.
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Quoting presslord:


Good God....


Hey..... I will have you know, that South Carolina and North Carolina are playing a best of 3 baseball series this weekend, and also playing a football game late August!

So we are going to settle this "Carolina" thing! The loser can no longer claim "Carolina"! LOL

See the hodge podge soup has been named huh? And a tropical storm watch issued...... better stock up on beer! :)
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Wow. Hard to believe we have TS Andrea. At least her sloppy appear and not so conducive conditions will keep her intensity in check as she makes her way towards the Florida coast.

In someways, she outdoes Debby and Barry in the Beauty Pageant.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Okay, good. :) Still. Good morning :)

Yes, Good Morning from here.

Any idea what a 2-4ft storm surge would do in Tampa Bay? Flooding?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting DataNerd:
Our CATL wave has improved markedly with an area of low pressure forming along the wave axis and associated turning very visible on RGB loops: Link

It's never a good sign to see tropical waves that well defined so early in the season. I'm surprised it wasn't given an invest designation and/or a circle in the Tropical Weather Outlook. Probably a precursor to a very active MDR during August and September.

For those wondering about the fate of this wave, the models show it tracking west-northwest, north of the Leeward Islands, while slowly weakening. It should dissipate in a few days.
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So what's the tornado risk gonna be like in Fl and up the E coast?
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes I know you changed your handle.

Okay, good. :) Still. Good morning :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would say Andrea's formation probably further strengthens the argument that the official start of Atlantic season should be moved to May 15. This easily could have happened a week earlier, outside of the official season.

I agree, but that's what Special Advisories are for I suppose... I think we would need a decade or so of seasons like this for something to be changed though, just apart of the Active Period developments.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Morning Aussie :)
-HurricaneDean07

Yes I know you changed your handle.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
45. Skyepony (Mod)
Andrea
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Quoting DataNerd:
Our CATL wave has improved markedly with an area of low pressure forming along the wave axis and associated turning very visible on RGB loops: Link

I've been keeping an eye on it. Pretty promising, if not for development, but to show what is to come for the MDR/Cape Verde Season.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This isn't a competition. We're amateurs here to learn. And 60-70mph seems unlikely anyways...



50 tops.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would say Andrea's formation probably further strengthens the argument that the official start of Atlantic season should be moved to May 15. This easily could have happened a week earlier, outside of the official season.
Agreed.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17803
Our CATL wave has improved markedly with an area of low pressure forming along the wave axis and associated turning very visible on RGB loops: Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This will be the 4th season in a row where we had a June storm. Alex,Arlene,Chris and Debbie,and now Andrea.

I would say Andrea's formation probably further strengthens the argument that the official start of Atlantic season should be moved to May 15. This easily could have happened a week earlier, outside of the official season.
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39. Skyepony (Mod)
ANDREA Click pic for loop.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Thanks for the Update Dr Masters.

Any idea what a 2-4ft storm surge in Tampa Bay will do? Flooding possible?

Morning Aussie :)
-HurricaneDean07
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Given the daily soaking rainfalls that some of the Florida peninsula has already received over the past week, I'm becoming very concerned about widespread flooding across the state. Satellite presentation of Tropical Storm Andrea suggests that the heaviest rainfall and deepest convection lies well to the south and east of the center which makes me quite surprised that at least Southwest Florida, if not all South Florida, has not been placed under a Flood Watch at the very least.
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This will be the 4th season in a row where we had a June storm. Alex,Arlene,Chris and Debbie,and now Andrea.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17803
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
How would like your crow served baked or fried?


Oh good god humberto and ingrid are back.

This promises to be an interesting year.
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Evening all

Live in S FL and planning a trip to Orlando this weekend. Outdoor stuff to do Saturday and looking at the current track, looks like this storm will have pulled away from central FL by then. Am I correct in thinking that? Fingers crossed that we won't have a washed out weekend.....
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Pretty sloppy storm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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