Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:



Were they clustered around that areas on the run before?


Mostly


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Quoting beell:


Merry Season, SJ.

A pretty good chance for the west coast of FL and then along the east coast into VA as the low lifts out.

One decent forecast tool for tropical tornadoes is the "0-1 km helicity". A measure of the amount of cylonic "turning of the wind between the surface and 1 kilometer. Higher values of helicity in the low levels can sometimes make up for tornado parameters (instability, lapse rates, mid-level forcing, etc) that might normally be considered marginal.

0-1km helicity above 200 m2/s2 is pretty decent. Likewise for this same parameter measuring helicity between the surface and 3km.

You can take a peek and step through the frames of the SREF and get a rough idea here.

Go to the 5th tab over from the left. Labeled "Kinematics". Scroll down to 0-1KM Helicity. 0-3KM is listed as well.

A strong 40-50 knot LLJ is also modeled to be in place from the Big Armpit of FL and continuing across coastal GA, SC, and NC at least.

I think helicity values and the LLJ will occur "somewhere". All highly dependent on the actual track (more or less to the right of or just north of the surface low).






Good stuff beell, thanks for sharing.....

I can see a water spout coming ashore..... in the last 10-15 years, that is the ONLY tornado damage Myrtle has had.....

For example.....
Water Spout
Water Spout
Water Spout
Water Spout that came ashore
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Andrea could become a major noreaster..not expecting to keep tropical status for long riding up the coast.

NYC could be in for significant rainfall and strong winds

How exactly did you arrive at that startling forecast?
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Evening nrti, good to see ya as always.

Track will make a big difference in who sees the weather with this one for sure.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL Ensembles tightly clustered, but in the short time I have been looking at them they seem to always be.






Were they clustered around that areas on the run before?
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Maybe the NHC just doesn't wanna take any risk this year.Especially considering what happen after Sandy.Also those budget cuts..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
"And so it begins"

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Quoting beell:


As lopsided as Andrea is, much more convection. Hard to say if it is "much more" warm core. So...now you got one more opinion.

Not sure what happened while I was typing, lol. Meant to say it was obviously warm core and had much more organized convection than Andrea.
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@JoshGreenWFLA
People filling sandbags in Tampa for TS #Andrea
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940


The Track should shift East at 11PM, As I am currently Vacationing in Savannah,Georgia , I am happy as Savannah will be on the west side of the system, however I am also upset that the storm is moving closer to home.
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Tornado warned storm heading in general direction of Memphis.... a funnel cloud has been spotted
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Andrea could become a major noreaster..not expecting to keep tropical status for long riding up the coast.

NYC could be in for significant rainfall and strong winds
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Quoting allahgore:



Downcaster lol




wishcaster lol
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GFDL Ensembles tightly clustered, but in the short time I have been looking at them they seem to always be.



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Who knows.Maybe we could see a Bertha system in July.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Wow... I didn't expect the watches up in SC and NC... but I guess if it gets back over water it'll be Andrea part 2 for them
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
What do you want us to say about it? It has 0% of becoming a TD within 48 hours. It has no moisture to tap on as the ITCZ is MIA, it's heading into shear that should decapitate it, and it has SAL to contend with east and west that'll choke off any last gasp it has. Other than that, it looks fine. If there was a circle for probability of dissipation, this one would be orange. imo


Both of these statements are completely false. You can clearly see the ITCZ in this image, as well as an extremely sharp wave signature. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this had a surface low based on the 39-gHZ imagery.

Point is, it's a very interesting and anomalous wave for this time of year, but it will not develop.



And TAFB does seem to care

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116. eddye
wundergirl 12 comee in
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115. eddye
wundergirl12 come in
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sign for what's to come.


Agree 100%. Not liking this early sign here in Hurricane Alley.
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113. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's obviously more warm core and has organized, deep convection...much more so than Andrea anyways.

Anyone?


As lopsided as Andrea is, much more convection. Hard to say if it is "much more" warm core. So...now you got one more opinion.
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the 12z Euro







the 12z CMC-intensifies it as head into the NE because it get backs over water..if the center stays over water..the SE may be looking at the same scenario after it crosses florida




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Sign for what's to come.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting presslord:


Good God....

I hope the almanac isn't correct the remainder of the season.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can see you.
Actually the models were intensifying this into a minimal tropical depression at one point all the models (Euro quickly dropped it) showed this as Barry out in the central Atlantic.Surprised the NHC hasn't seen this already..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
I see an organizing storm, looks like Andrea is pushing back dry air on the west side. Also, its hardly moving
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Because climo says no.. and apparently the NHC.Someone quote me in case he can't see this.

I can see you.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 8 PM TWO doesn't have a word about the wave. I can't believe it.
What do you want us to say about it? It has 0% of becoming a TD within 48 hours. It has no moisture to tap on as the ITCZ is MIA, it's heading into shear that should decapitate it, and it has SAL to contend with east and west that'll choke off any last gasp it has. Other than that, it looks fine. If there was a circle for probability of dissipation, this one would be orange. imo
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Legitimate but stupid question I guess...what is preventing the wave from being a tropical depression?

GFS analysis says it has a closed circulation and accordingly isn't a part of the ITCZ (both of which were confirmed by both OSCAT and ASCAT last night) and also has winds of 30 mph.



It's obviously more warm core and has organized, deep convection...much more so than Andrea anyways.

Anyone?
Because climo says no.. and apparently the NHC.Someone quote me in case he can't see this.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Possible rainfall
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Quoting StormJunkie:


If this verifies, then the worst of the weather would pass over us...If it's off shore, then we'll be on her clean side. You know the routine with these early, lopsided systems...


Agreed, the last similar situation I can remember, we barely got a single rain shower, or a gust exceeding 20mph.....

I would think by tomorrow afternoon, we should have a better idea as to the track. Models in the past have struggled on these early season storms in the general vicinity.....

Also not entirely out of question for a storm like this to have more than one vortex, and for the center to shift to the heavier side of the lopsided storm....

Guess we shall see if any surprises are in store....
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Via FB


WSFA-TV 5
25 minutes ago
We've learned from KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City that a man in his 80s with dementia was found in the woods ALIVE today four days after that devastating tornado in El Reno (the widest tornado ever recorded at 2.6 miles wide) How awesome is this???

Very awesome but his being missing had nothing to do with the tornado. He walked away from his home Saturday, the day after the tornado. He was found because a neighbor heard his crys for help this afternoon. It was very fortunate for this man they he didn't end up far from his home. I'm sure the search and rescue resources were completely overloaded and didn't have much time to devote to a search.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


If this verifies, then the worst of the weather would pass over us...If it's off shore, then we'll be on her clean side. You know the routine with these early, lopsided systems...


What's up SJ and Press? Yea, the track right now will bring us minimum "weather". I have a feeling that its going to get shifted further east at 11 and even less of a threat for us. The Euro keeps Andrea offshore and parallel to the SE coast, also the storm is going to accelerate by Friday morning and it will be out of here by the weekend.
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(click to enlarge)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Legitimate buy I guess stupid question...what is preventing the wave from being a tropical depression?

GFS analysis says it has a closed circulation and accordingly isn't a part of the ITCZ (both of which were confirmed by both OSCAT and ASCAT last night) and also has winds of 30 mph.



It's obviously more warm core and has organized, deep convection...much more so than Andrea anyways.

Anyone?

Because it isn't threatening the USA. /s

But seriously, I have no idea.
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SJ...im in the boat you are...just glad that tomorrow is the last day of school and it will be Friday before it passes over us...kids are not thrilled with it tho ha ha ha...hub has lots of jobs out on folly and Kiawah...he is not thrilled with the aspect of it being on the land side right now
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This is one heck of a tropical wave for the beginning of June. If only it was 4-5 weeks later..

GFS full-resolution

18z Analysis

TPW



850 vort


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Quoting StormJunkie:
So what's the tornado risk gonna be like in Fl and up the E coast?


Merry Season, SJ.

A pretty good chance for the west coast of FL and then along the east coast into VA as the low lifts out.

One decent forecast tool for tropical tornadoes is the "0-1 km helicity". A measure of the amount of cylonic "turning of the wind between the surface and 1 kilometer. Higher values of helicity in the low levels can sometimes make up for tornado parameters (instability, lapse rates, mid-level forcing, etc) that might normally be considered marginal.

0-1km helicity above 200 m2/s2 is pretty decent. Likewise for this same parameter measuring helicity between the surface and 3km.

You can take a peek and step through the frames of the SREF and get a rough idea here.

Go to the 5th tab over from the left. Labeled "Kinematics". Scroll down to 0-1KM Helicity. 0-3KM is listed as well.

A strong 40-50 knot LLJ is also modeled to be in place from the Big Armpit of FL and continuing across coastal GA, SC, and NC at least.

I think helicity values and the LLJ will occur "somewhere". All highly dependent on the actual track (more or less to the right of or just north of the surface low).




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Legitimate but stupid question I guess...what is preventing the wave from being a tropical depression?

GFS analysis says it has a closed circulation and accordingly isn't a part of the ITCZ (both of which were confirmed by both OSCAT and ASCAT last night) and also has winds of 30 mph.



It's obviously more warm core and has organized, deep convection...much more so than Andrea anyways.

Anyone?
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wundergirl12 come back in
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Gosh, I just wanna say it's so nice to see all these familiar names on here, I've been wondering if everyone left or something, I just sit back and lurk, but i know alot of you all. glad to see you all back.

sheri
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
656 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS COUNTY...
EASTERN ANDREWS COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
so am I riff or raff roflmbo...hey ocean...I am alive...and it doesn't pay to complain...so I wont :)


Ok
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so am I riff or raff roflmbo...hey ocean...I am alive...and it doesn't pay to complain...so I wont :)
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Evening tigger and OM ;)

Guess that image still doesn't post right.

If this verifies is what my last comment should of had a picture of...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Via FB


WSFA-TV · 5
25 minutes ago ·
We've learned from KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City that a man in his 80s with dementia was found in the woods ALIVE today four days after that devastating tornado in El Reno (the widest tornado ever recorded at 2.6 miles wide) How awesome is this???
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Short synopsis from Tally NWS for the Big Bend region; basically, take precautions if you live in areas prone to flooding (whether from poor drainage or local river front properties).....The Swuannee River comes to mind given the current forecast trajectory and other North Florida/South GA rivers as well.

The first tropical storm of the Atlantic tropical season has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The center of Tropical Storm Andrea is forecast to reach the coast of the Florida Big Bend on Thursday afternoon or evening, and then move over southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina Thursday night and Friday. The main concern with Andrea is very heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
Quoting TideWaterWeather:


That wave is about to run into strong south west winds which will impart 50+ knots of shear..

Link


They could have mentioned the wave making that point about the unfavorable conditions ahead.
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Quoting SLU:


Well the models say it will track north of the Caribbean.

Some say that, Some dont show it at all, so it really isnt that much of a threat.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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