Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 183 - 133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Definitely not the most organized tropical cyclone, but that's typical for early June. The big guys come later...and judging by the strength of the wave in the central Atlantic, it won't be much later either.

I'll have a blog on Andrea after the 11pm advisory. Thinking a peak of 50 mph.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

anyway, hasta la vista.
andrea is
not very impressive atm.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting Chicklit:
Andrea is a big wet mess.
Just your normal June storm. But it's the ones in about 6 weeks that make me nervous!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All I can say, is there goes up my Citizens insurance payments...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks very asymmetric and without a lot of deep convection hear the center. Andrea may weaken. Or it could just be a phase.

I agree with Chicklit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FLZ066-067-069>075-172>174-060145-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI
DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL HENDRY FL INLAND
BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL MAINLAND MONROE FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
833 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...HENDRY COUNTY...
COLLIER COUNTY...MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* THIS EVENING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION OVER
MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, MAINLAND MONROE, AND SOUTHERN COLLIER
. THE
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS IS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NOTE THAT THUNDER IS NOT REQUIRED TO OBSERVE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR STRONG
WINDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Both HWRF and GFDL Ensemble keep most of the rain left of track......










That's interesting. Not what I would expect at all...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:


Yes they are but it's so late for me to get there before dark.... Waves were at the 3-4 foot high at 7pm...
And yes I will becareful that's for sure....

Good to see you this year too. :o)
Looks to be a busy season I think.


Taco :o)


That it does...I moved out of Fl a few years ago, but my Dad and Step Mom moved to Bradenton and this morning told him it would be a TD that is about it...guess I spoke to soon haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Andrea is a big weak wet mess.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174


TS Andrea should bust some drought affected areas, but for the most part it will affect well saturated areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On the ECFL coast winds at the surface have veered from offshore to onshore in the last 24 hours as is expected with a tropical cyclone to our southwest, with winds are slowly increasing. As the night wears on I would expect some heavier showers and storms setting up in bands with surface convergence due to continued veering wind direction, speed convergence and increased night-time instability over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
171. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Both HWRF and GFDL Ensemble keep most of the rain left of track......








Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears that the highest upcoming tides are near 1pm at Tampa bay for Thursday and Friday, so at least the high water would be during daylight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Whats wrong with YOU!



go too the bar or some in and get off my back sigh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like ANDREA has this fall in a part i wounder if it even have a close low
Whats wrong with YOU!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Didn't any waves come ashore today? :-) Be careful if you're going wave chasing.


Yes they are but it's so late for me to get there before dark.... Waves were at the 3-4 foot high at 7pm...
And yes I will becareful that's for sure....

Good to see you this year too. :o)
Looks to be a busy season I think.


Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
Hello Andrea....oh and all my old friends here...welcome to 2013 season :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like another direct hit for me again with Andrea. Comin toward my town.


Where are you located? Judging by the models I'm going to say Tampa?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
Current track is between Tallahassee and Gainesville.
Link National Buoy Center
Zoom in to the Gulf.


Here's her closest buoy Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
finally a few storms on the west side
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Forecast models. ..check them

Okay, give me a link that supports your forecast. I haven't seen any model that does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like another direct hit for me again with Andrea. Comin toward my town.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2035
Quoting taco2me61:
Hope to get some pictures of waves coming a shore tomorrow....

Taco :o)

Didn't any waves come ashore today? :-) Be careful if you're going wave chasing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If she crosses into the Atlantic , could her convection not wrap around her west side as well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


A very well organised wave for sure. It's closer to a TD than the NHC apparently thinks but it's about to run into a brick wall.
Quoting sar2401:

How exactly did you arrive at that startling forecast?


Forecast models. ..check them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Brother!

Hey My friend :o) Good to see you too :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not the most impressive convective signature I've ever seen lol.



I wonder if it'll make it across Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Flooding at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa... photo from @thebengeorge

Most of central Alabama has been getting tons of rain in the last two days. The trough that moved through here Monday came back as a warm front yesterday and many places had 3-5" of rain. The area from Tuscaloosa north is now getting even more rain as a cold front dives south and interacts with all the Gulf moisture. This latest trough will contribute to Andrea going further east and south than models showed earlier today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
152. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Legitimate but stupid question I guess...what is preventing the wave from being a tropical depression?

GFS analysis says it has a closed circulation and accordingly isn't a part of the ITCZ (both of which were confirmed by both OSCAT and ASCAT last night) and also has winds of 30 mph.



It's obviously more warm core and has organized, deep convection...much more so than Andrea anyways.

Anyone?


A very well organised wave for sure. It's closer to a TD than the NHC apparently thinks but it's about to run into a brick wall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:
WOW it's good to see all the "Regulars" and a few Newbies.... So Like I said earlier today we have our first Storm of the 2013 Season...


Taco :o)


Hey Brother!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hope to get some pictures of waves coming a shore tomorrow....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
0z ATCF has no changes, still 40mph and 1002mb.

AL, 01, 2013060600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 865W, 35, 1002, TS, 34
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Gosh, I just wanna say it's so nice to see all these familiar names on here, I've been wondering if everyone left or something, I just sit back and lurk, but i know alot of you all. glad to see you all back.

sheri

Same here. I've seen lots of newbies in the past few days; nice to see the regulars back today!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Flooding at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa... photo from @thebengeorge


That is an incredible picture. I live in Mobile, about 200 miles south of Tuscaloosa, and I have walked through that intersection many times. I have family in Tuscaloosa.

Good evening all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from Jeff Masters above:

A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola

stay tuned...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW it's good to see all the "Regulars" and a few Newbies.... So Like I said earlier today we have our first Storm of the 2013 Season...


Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
Changed my mind..... no change it back



invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren 06-Jun-2013 00:13 1.0K
invest_RENUMBER_al012013_al912013.ren 06-Jun-2013 00:12 1.0K
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not the most impressive convective signature I've ever seen lol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Good to see you to, still in school?


Nope, I am officially done. Associates in Avionic and Associates in Corporate Quality. I am now an industrial electrician...Keeping R2D2 & C3PO running and producing injectors...

Thanks for asking!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe the NHC just doesn't wanna take any risk this year.Especially considering what happen after Sandy.Also those budget cuts..

The NHC did not suffer any budget cuts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


Good stuff beell, thanks for sharing.....

I can see a water spout coming ashore..... in the last 10-15 years, that is the ONLY tornado damage Myrtle has had.....

For example.....
Water Spout
Water Spout
Water Spout
Water Spout that came ashore

It might be a good idea to put some warning of the language, at least in the last video, lol.

Quoting sar2401:

How exactly did you arrive at that startling forecast?

For that forecast to verify, then Andrea would have to move pretty far inland and become a powerful extra-tropical storm. Somehow I don't see that happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like ANDREA has this fall in a part i wounder if it even have a close low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Flooding at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa... photo from @thebengeorge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


@JoshGreenWFLA
People filling sandbags in Tampa for TS #Andrea


The BAYSHORE AND WESTSHORE areas will flood big time with that southerly ONSHORE WIND!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening nrti, good to see ya as always.

Track will make a big difference in who sees the weather with this one for sure.


Good to see you to, still in school?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think my 8:45 am clay court tennis game in ECFL may be canceled tomorrow...but you never know.
Andrea may stay out in the Gulf or else track north towards Pensacola. I recall some models keeping her out in the gulf for a couple of days.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting ElConando:



Were they clustered around that areas on the run before?


Mostly


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 183 - 133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
74 °F
Mostly Cloudy