Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bswigg:


The first part was so StormTop then I read the disclaimer haha


It's always fun to read the early season TEOTWAWKI predictions. Check in to see my real persona in mid-late July, when things really start to crank.

I love Fla. wishcasters, have fun with them, but try to keep it real when the real crap hits the fan.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Question:

If Andrea freakishly blows up to a hurricane in the next 24 hours, would that act to cause a turn towards the right? I. e. could what is currently forecast to be a Deadman's Bay landfall end up as a Clearwater landfall?
One way is a series of center relocations. Sheared storms especially sometimes move by center relocation. I can recall some heavily sheared GoM storms in the past that defied forecasters by repeatedly relocating the centers under the heavier convection in the direction of the shear. Unusual but not unknown.
(Edit: That could make it go more right. I ignored your "hurricane" troll-bait ... I got suckered, huh?)
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In another topic,the 30 day SOI index has climbed up bigtime to the highest reading since January 2012. This is another sign that ENSO will remain at Neutral for a few more months.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting dogsgomoo:

Thank you. I was wondering if they were something else like isotachs or temp. Do you know what is the scale?


I think on those maps it is 4 mb scale.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They're isobars (lines of pressure).

Thank you. I was wondering if they were something else like isotachs or temp. Do you know what is the scale?

/edit Just saw Stormchaser2007's response. Thanks.
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Heads up as these thunderstorms move ashore....


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
931 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING GASPARILLA ISLAND...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 927 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT 13 NM SOUTH OF GASPARILLA
ISLAND...OR ABOUT 8 NM WEST OF CAPTIVA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.


ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
928 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM...
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT AND
BEYOND 5 FATHOMS...
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO 5 FATHOMS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 925 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MULTIPLE WATERSPOUTS 12 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF ROCK LIGHT...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They're isobars (lines of pressure).


Not surface though.

700mb
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Quoting spathy:
Hi Nana.
I am just about to log off and looked at the radar and decided to stay up a few more mins.

Few more hours for me. Radar just getting started!
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Quoting AztecCe:

Looks like this gal is going to hug the coast for a while. If the center stays offshore once it passes florida will it reach NC as a tropical storm?


It will probably be post-tropical by reaching there. It may be a stronger storm with baroclinic forcing.
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Quoting WXGulfBreeze:
Prediction: Cat 3 by the time Andrea hits Pensacola.

You heard it here first.

(Disclaimer: there may be a bit of intentional, snarkastic amping in the the above prediction.)

Oh, and PeeEss: I was WXDelMarVa here for years and years before I relocated to the Gulf Coast. So, I'm not a total noob on WU. Been a paying customer for at least 10 years.


The first part was so StormTop then I read the disclaimer haha
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Quoting dogsgomoo:

Pardon my ignorance but in the TPW imagery you posted. What do the contour lines represent?

They're isobars (lines of pressure).
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I just want to say I was horribly offended to have my mother - my MOTHER! - be the one to tell me we had Andrea... internet access at both of my locations was on the fritz, blitz or whatever all day...
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting spathy:
Where is that? Just East of Marco Island?


Hi Spathy, been looking for you on blog. good to see you. Happy 2013 season!
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217. Relix
That wave deserves at least some yellow paint. Looks good for June.
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11PM
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Has she gone east of north yet? When does the next HH go in? about 9pm?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Yes it is
Quoting spathy:
Where is that? Just East of Marco Island?

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting bucyouup68:
This is what BayNews9 is reporting to people in the Tampa Bay Area.

"It's important to know, we've been talking about this for the last couple of days. This is not something we need to be worried about just because this has a name. There is going to be a lot of rain around here, some gusty wind, the potential for isolated tornadoes. That's the forecast for tonight and tomorrow and it has been the forecast for the last couple days for the Wednesday night and Thursday time frame."
Question:

If Andrea freakishly blows up to a hurricane in the next 24 hours, would that act to cause a turn towards the right? I. e. could what is currently forecast to be a Deadman's Bay landfall end up as a Clearwater landfall?
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Has she gone east of north yet? When does the next HH go in? about 9pm?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good evening to all.



Well, well, well.... what have we here? Is that a Big Bend landfall being forecast?

Ya'll better hope the CMC doesn't live up to its nickname, because it seems that upgrade had some influence on accuracy... lol...

What about the long-range models? It seems they were pretty much on target with a formation date and general location...


Looks like this gal is going to hug the coast for a while. If the center stays offshore once it passes florida will it reach NC as a tropical storm?
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Just called my parents who live in St. Petersburg near Tampa Bay to let them know about the tropical storm conditions expected.
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Prediction: Cat 3 by the time Andrea hits Pensacola.

You heard it here first.

(Disclaimer: there may be a bit of intentional, snarkastic amping in the the above prediction.)

Oh, and PeeEss: I was WXDelMarVa here for years and years before I relocated to the Gulf Coast. So, I'm not a total noob on WU. Been a paying customer for at least 10 years.
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Look at that Tornado Vortex Signature!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
I guess the NHC doesn't think much of the convection with the wave.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 16N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 38W-44W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 39W-46W.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good evening to all.



Well, well, well.... what have we here? Is that a Big Bend landfall being forecast?

Ya'll better hope the CMC doesn't live up to its nickname, because it seems that upgrade had some influence on accuracy... lol...

What about the long-range models? It seems they were pretty much on target with a formation date and general location...



GFS was very good sniffing it on long range. ECMWF came later than GFS to join the consensus.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting taco2me61:


Agreed 100% :o) for the active part.... I also think this will not be the only storm for the Gulf this year... just saying :o)

Taco :o)



I agree with you on that.
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Good evening to all.



Well, well, well.... what have we here? Is that a Big Bend landfall being forecast?

Ya'll better hope the CMC doesn't live up to its nickname, because it seems that upgrade had some influence on accuracy... lol...

What about the long-range models? It seems they were pretty much on target with a formation date and general location...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is what BayNews9 is reporting to people in the Tampa Bay Area.

"It's important to know, we've been talking about this for the last couple of days. This is not something we need to be worried about just because this has a name. There is going to be a lot of rain around here, some gusty wind, the potential for isolated tornadoes. That's the forecast for tonight and tomorrow and it has been the forecast for the last couple days for the Wednesday night and Thursday time frame."
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Very heavy thunderstorms!!!!!and rain approaching the Florida Keys and South Florida,looks like very nasty stuff,let's see if it reach the mainland?.
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Quoting Dakster:
All I can say, is there goes up my Citizens insurance payments...

lol....likely not from this one....but it is definitely worth noting that EVERY Florida resident who has home or auto insurance is on the hook for $5,000 or so in immediate surcharges on their car insurance even, plus their home insurance being surcharged.....if there's a cyclone or 2 that hits anywhere in the state and causes a big multi-billion dollar property loss. Ahhhhh...the reality of the storm aftermath. As any homeowner can attest....we're still paying for losses from 8 years ago....and we didn't get to share in all the years when the insurance companies collected billions and had to pay out a very small amount back in claims.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Watch out Florida, already getting reports of tornados.
Where are these reports? Have not seen any.
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198. beell
A 7 year walk-back in time (2007 - 2013) with the IR presentation at or around the time a system was named by the NHC. Andrea 2013 at bottom right.
(click any graphic to open in new window)


2007/2008


2009
2 Sat pics for 2009. A TD in late May and finally, the "A" storm in August of 2009


2010/2011


2012/2013
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Quoting bswigg:



So I guess now that we say that, tomorrow it will be a______...guess some will say we are wishcasters now haha.

I do feel this year will be very active on this blog...


Agreed 100% :o) for the active part.... I also think this will not be the only storm for the Gulf this year... just saying :o)

Taco :o)
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This must have been quite a sight.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...COAST GUARD REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
. THIS TORNADO IS 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRAYSER...OR
6 MILES SOUTH OF MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BARTLETT.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE AND CORONEE
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8973 3508 8984 3523 9016 3534 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 299DEG 15KT 3525 9006

$$
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Well I live at the Mouth of Tampa Bay, can walk outside and see the Sunshine Skyway Bridge. We have a little rain if you call it that to Florida Standards. Pretty Lame so far.
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Quoting taco2me61:

Yea with all due respect I was thinking it would be not much more than that either. Until this afternoon when I saw winds gusting up to 40mph. Then I changed my mind.... :o) Now that I say this Tropical Storm should be all she gets out of her. LOL :o)


Taco :o)



So I guess now that we say that, tomorrow it will be a______...guess some will say we are wishcasters now haha.

I do feel this year will be very active on this blog...
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Quoting DataNerd:
Watch out Florida, already getting reports of tornados.

huh?
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
190. Skyepony (Mod)
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Watch out Florida, already getting reports of tornados.
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Quoting bswigg:


That it does...I moved out of Fl a few years ago, but my Dad and Step Mom moved to Bradenton and this morning told him it would be a TD that is about it...guess I spoke to soon haha

Yea with all due respect I was thinking it would be not much more than that either. Until this afternoon when I saw winds gusting up to 40mph. Then I changed my mind.... :o) Now that I say this Tropical Storm should be all she gets out of her. LOL :o)


Taco :o)
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Quoting guygee:
A ship report with ~30 kt winds:
SHIP 2300Z 27.20N 85.60W 110(WDIR) 29.77"(PRES) -0.07"(PTDY)

If she lingers in the gulf as some models have predicted, then Andrea may look better tomorrow.
This is the probably scenario, with her strafing the coast spreading showers over Florida, and then coming onshore up closer to the panhandle, as far as I can recall what's been predicted up to now.
My big concern is, will I play tennis tomorrow morning or not?!
Not complaining. No matter what the outcome.
Evening ladies and gentlemen.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This is one heck of a tropical wave for the beginning of June. If only it was 4-5 weeks later..

GFS full-resolution

18z Analysis

TPW



850 vort



Pardon my ignorance but in the TPW imagery you posted. What do the contour lines represent?
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hey guys well there you have it TS Andrea 1 down 18 more to go this is gonna be a long season
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A ship report with ~30 kt winds:
SHIP 2300Z 27.20N 85.60W 110(WDIR) 29.9 kt 29.77"(PRES) -0.07"(PTDY)
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Definitely not the most organized tropical cyclone, but that's typical for early June. The big guys come later...and judging by the strength of the wave in the central Atlantic, it won't be much later either.

I'll have a blog on Andrea after the 11pm advisory. Thinking a peak of 50 mph.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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