Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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According to the NHC there have not been many storm formations in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the first 10 days of June.

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Trying again tonight...

4 minutes ago
Anyone up for a rocket launch? We're streaming live on USTREAM.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallops

NASA-TV Wallops
www.ustream.tv


NASA's Wallops Flight Facility
....... counting for the launch tonight of a Black Brant XII sounding rocket carrying the Cosmic Infrared Background ExpeRiment or CIBER.
The launch team will soon check out the payload systems with the rocket in the launch position to confirm launch readiness.

The launch is scheduled for 11:05 p.m. with a window that runs until 11:59 p.m. The rocket may be visible to residents in the mid-Atlantic region.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Like a Bertha.
Funny how it was also in 1996 the year of Hortense and 1 of the main analog years for this season.
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Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
BTW, it was quite interesting this evening to observe the low level clouds plunging westward. I was pretty sure from the clearing skies here that Andrea was consolidating, but I didn't expect them to call it until tomorrow a.m.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny enough the people wishing for a hurricane to hit Florida have been wrong every single consecutive year since 2006.
And we are very grateful... 04-05 was more than enough in the wishcasters' corner...

Anyway, it's not like there was no tropical activity whatsoever...
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Quoting Gearsts:
Earlier than July! lol im ok if we get the first Cape verde storm in Late July.


Like a Bertha.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting Gearsts:
Earlier than July! lol im ok if we get the first Cape verde storm in Late July.

Not earlier than July, Im saying that Early July or Mid July could spell trouble as well...

Goodnight.
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Goodnight everyone. 1-0-0
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

The door could open earlier this year... With the waves weve been getting. Definitely not out of the question to get an early long tracker.
Earlier than July! lol im ok if we get the first Cape verde storm in Late July.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
so am I riff or raff roflmbo...hey ocean...I am alive...and it doesn't pay to complain...so I wont :)
Tigger and Thel... feels like the good old blogging days...

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
In another topic,the 30 day SOI index has climbed up bigtime to the highest reading since January 2012. This is another sign that ENSO will remain at Neutral for a few more months.

*cough* La nina *cough*
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US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Here is our latest briefing on Tropical Storm Andrea and her expected impacts to the local area.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Lets wait for the Doors to open in late July ;)

The door could open earlier this year... With the waves weve been getting. Definitely not out of the question to get an early long tracker.
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267. skook
West of Fort Myers.
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or the trof pushing it earlier than forecast?
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Quoting JLPR2:
The TW in the CATL is gaining latitude, in other words it's heading to its death. Shear will rip it to shreds, but for the moment it still looks nice.



Lets wait for the Doors to open in late July ;)
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Quoting Doppler22:
I have my own Tropical Threat Level (which I made a blog about if you want to see). It goes from Blue-Green-Yellow-Orange-Red

I have all of North Florida, except the Panhandle under Code Green and the coast of Georgia under Code Green. The rest of the East Coast is under Code Blue for now.

(Blue= all clear, Green= Small/weak system impacts soon)

Sounds like a good idea doppler.
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262. beell

0-1 km Storm relative helicity/storm motion


0-3 km Storm relative helicity/storm motion
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260. 7544
look at all that rain missing se fla lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Unfortunately, there are some years when the FL wishcasters get their way and the storms do smack FL... and having 2004 as an analog year does nothing to calm the unchilled nerves...


Funny enough the people wishing for a hurricane to hit Florida have been wrong every single consecutive year since 2006.
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258. flsky
Quoting Hurricane1956:
South Florida take cover!!!!!!!!,heavy thunderstorms and very nasty weather approaching!!,WOW it looks bad in the satellite!!.


Take a breath -- eat a cookie....
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On satellite it looks like its NE-ENE, anyone with good enough eye to discern if the center is doing that or just the convection getting pushed east by shear?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Convection firing at the COC.


Huh.. look familiar anyone?
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Looking at the radar I would have to say it looks more like it will hit between Tampa and Marco island. I have seen them blow up in the daylight and regain a more northerly course, but I am skeptical of the computer models this time.
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we havent had rain in my part of FL for weeks. Thanks Andrea!
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Station 42003 (LLNR 1395) - East GULF - 208 MN West of Naples, FL
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252. JLPR2
The TW in the CATL is gaining latitude, in other words it's heading to its death. Shear will rip it to shreds, but for the moment it still looks nice.



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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


It's going to be a bad day in the Sunshine State tomorrow.
Maybe starting tonite!!!.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Trying my hand at Tracking maps :)


That's pretty good. If I was doing it I'd have it go about 50 miles to the right (east).
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
South Florida take cover!!!!!!!!,heavy thunderstorms and very nasty weather approaching!!,WOW it looks bad in the satellite!!.


It's going to be a bad day in the Sunshine State tomorrow.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
South Florida take cover!!!!!!!!,heavy thunderstorms and very nasty weather approaching!!,WOW it looks bad in the satellite!!.
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247. beell
Quoting dogsgomoo:

Thank you. I was wondering if they were something else like isotachs or temp. Do you know what is the scale?

/edit Just saw Stormchaser2007's response. Thanks.


If it's a 700mb chart they are lines of equal height or isohypses. Isobars are lines of equal pressure.

Usually, on a global model, a 700mb chart is spaced at 40 meter intervals-but that's not a law or anything.

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Trying my hand at Tracking maps :)
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Andrea meaning and name origin:

Andrea \a-nd-rea, an-drea\ as a girl's name (also used as boy's name Andrea), is pronounced AHN-free-ah, AN-dree-ah. It is of Greek origin, and the meaning of Andrea is "manly, virile".

Here's Andrea Catozzi, showing U.S. the true meaning of this storm's name.



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Convection firing at the COC.
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Quoting AztecCe:

Looks like this gal is going to hug the coast for a while. If the center stays offshore once it passes florida will it reach NC as a tropical storm?


lets HOPE it goes off shore and travels the coast...if it does, the worst of it will be over water...entire western side s almost void of anything...
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I have my own Tropical Threat Level (which I made a blog about if you want to see). It goes from Blue-Green-Yellow-Orange-Red

I have all of North Florida, except the Panhandle under Code Green and the coast of Georgia under Code Green. The rest of the East Coast is under Code Blue for now.

(Blue= all clear, Green= Small/weak system impacts soon)
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Ya Know, I keep thinking about that last tweet that Tim Samaras tweeted(?). I love what he said and I am going to use it. Everyone in the path of the storm " STAY WEATHER SAAVY"
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Good night all
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


It's always fun to read the early season TEOTWAWKI predictions. Check in to see my real persona in mid-late July, when things really start to crank.

I love Fla. wishcasters, have fun with them, but try to keep it real when the real crap hits the fan.
Unfortunately, there are some years when the FL wishcasters get their way and the storms do smack FL... and having 2004 as an analog year does nothing to calm the unchilled nerves...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I just want to say I was horribly offended to have my mother - my MOTHER! - be the one to tell me we had Andrea... internet access at both of my locations was on the fritz, blitz or whatever all day...

My Aunt told me and I am normally the one who is telling her. I have been on top of it for most of the day though I think it is just embarrassing and unlucky to be unaware for the two hours when it formed
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For WPB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT from the NWS
Link
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
Quoting StormJunkie:


We can't all be dreamers now can we?
Well, look what the cat dragged in... just thought about u guys last night when I saw some Portlight pics.

On second thought, I'm not surprised to see u guys in here, since it looks like you will be having a tropical visitor soon... and it's not me... lol

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
How would like your crow served baked or fried?
Oh, my.... crow dishes in the blog before June 7th...

Quoting TylerStanfield:

I've been keeping an eye on it. Pretty promising, if not for development, but to show what is to come for the MDR/Cape Verde Season.
I'm thinking even if the ECar dead zone gets it, it'll likely make something of itself in the EPac... I wouldn't be at all surprised to see our next named storm out of that Twave. It has remarkably good presentation for June.
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First Named Storm of the 2013 Hurricane Season, Andrea will be a rain maker in the Florida Panhandle. Stay Aware Florida
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Lot of rain for the state of Florida in the next 48 hours, hope not too much flooding occurs.
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Quoting bswigg:


The first part was so StormTop then I read the disclaimer haha


It's always fun to read the early season TEOTWAWKI predictions. Check in to see my real persona in mid-late July, when things really start to crank.

I love Fla. wishcasters, have fun with them, but try to keep it real when the real crap hits the fan.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.