Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Morning all! I see things have changed 'a bit' since last night ;) Hope everyone in Florida is staying safe! Keeping an eye on the track to see how it will affect us in the Charleston metro area tonight/tomorrow...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When will the HH be up there today?.


This afternoon by 1645 UTC.
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Quoting Chicklit:
fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!


Have a Good Day :o)

Taco :o)
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fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!
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I'm wondering if Tampa is going to be done with rain for now after this current feeder band comes by. I guess it all depends on how that newly formed eyewall generates convection and how close it gets to us. If it sticks to its forecast track than we may be stuck in the dry slot for the rest of the day.... What do you other tampans think?
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1178. LargoFl
I wonder if..my area will top that predicted 4 inches of rain..the way its coming down so hard maybe we will.
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1177. yoboi
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all



Howdy!
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It's a shame really that we don't have a recon in this right now. If it's any meaning to Andrea the TAFB/SAB finally have figured out Andrea's a tropical storm. Satellite is going to be useless in determining strength today.
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1175. dearmas
Got to leave here at 930 for Jury Duty ugh...I wish they would just call us out!!! I cant say anything about the case either..I'm in Pasco county (Wesley Chapel)
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One should always prepare for a storm if it was a category higher.
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Looks like she is grabbing air from the Central Atlantic!
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When will the HH be up there today?.
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1171. LargoFl
Quoting FunnelVortex:


LARGO! YOURE BACK!
Hiya yeah this event could'nt be missed in here lol..nice to see the blog still going strong.
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Link
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Up to 2.73 inches now!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4981
Convection wrapping around the center:

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Looks like Andrea wants to be the first storm and hurricane of 2013.
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1166. LargoFl
gee im soooo glad when i bought this house i picked the high ground,there's going to be alot of flooding in those low lying area's for sure
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Andrea is wrapping up nicely, could become stronger before landfall. Be prepared. Stay on guard.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Getting a lot of these uprooted trees in Myakka City.

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Quoting LargoFl:
wow monsoon rain here by me and the gusts are getting stronger..


LARGO! YOURE BACK!
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1162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1161. LargoFl
wow monsoon rain here by me and the gusts are getting stronger..
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Quoting Civicane49:
Quoting Civicane49:


Convection almost wrapped.
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@NHC_Surge
#stormsurge flooding of up to 5 ft above ground, or inundation, is possible in Florida Big Bend area with next high tide this afternoon
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all
Good morning StormJunkie
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Quoting robintampabay:



Heat V Spurs


Thanks. Corrected. All I care about is the Heat.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9376
1154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Good Morning guys, I see that Andrea peaked to 60 mph,as i predicted yesterday....Stay safe folks of west florida!!!!
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Damage photo in Palm Beach County this morning. TS #Andrea Photo Credit: Belynda Warren

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962


Eric Burris
Here's a breakdown of the treats to Central Florida from Tropical Storm Andrea. Flooding still the highest risk
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting saltwaterconch:
Anyone else notice how well the "comma" of this storm in the last image of the latest radar loop fits so well into the coastline of Florida's big bend area. It's amazing how these storms have eroded the landscape over the centuries.


Now you're good to go...
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Will check back with you all later this afternoon after I get back from the coastal area.

Only hoping that I don't lose power at the house tonight during the first Heat-Piston's game....



Heat V Spurs
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Morning all
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Andrea is taking a pretty big jog east currently.
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Will check back with you all later this afternoon after I get back from the coastal area.

Only hoping that I don't lose power at the house tonight during the first Heat-Spur's game....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9376
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warmer 77 degrees this morning and under a dangerous thunderstorm warning. I can hear it rumbling as it comes. It's only supposed to warm up about seven or eight degrees by this afternoon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Bananas Foster French toast, scrambled eggs, sausage patties and links, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
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1140. KORBIN
This is a strengthening storm- By the 11AM Advsiory we could see a 70+ mph storm. Please don't let your guard down.
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Erica Rakow
Pouring now at @JAXairport.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Far more visually impressive than Debby was. Reminds me somewhat in structure of Hurricane Earl in 1998.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think she comes in just south of cross city but don't hold me too it

That's where I live.
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what size of storm surge is anticipated in tampa bay? tides could make a difference.
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1135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
you can see a partial exposed coc in the break of the clouds lining up with a cluster of new storms in the sw semi circle of the coc trying to form the cloud deck appears moving north all the while her low level swirl is moving ene

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Yes
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is that feeder band in the Gulf going to make it across the state to affect the east coast?

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4981
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then what was Hurricane Earl then?
Apparently that was just a typical afternoon thunderstorm to him.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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