Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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All you naysayers at back at it again..You were wrong all day today but I guess that crow must have tasted good as you want to feast again..LOL..

Good night..tomorrow will bring a new day..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15109
the tropical point guy must be furloughed
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow

Headed for Marathon!

TORNADO WARNING
FLC087-060315-
/O.NEW.KKEY.TO.W.0001.130606T0237Z-130606T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 1034 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BOOT KEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PIDGEON KEY...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...KNIGHT KEY AND BOOT
KEY BY 1110 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2471 8114 2471 8116 2471 8114 2472 8112
2472 8110 2475 8104 2475 8103 2472 8103
2471 8106 2469 8107 2468 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 168DEG 13KT 2457 8112

$$
JOHNSON
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T minus four minutes and go for launch of the sounding rocket from Wallops Virginia

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HMMM TROPICAL POINTS NOT AVAILABLE FOR ANDREA? on the floaters
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Wait, ppl saying andrea is gonna blow up...you mean a tropical storm can overcome intense sheer? Mst be a super storm...
u


She's been defying every Meteorological norm for several days now, why stop now?

3 days ago she barely existed, models were barely picking up on anything being there.

2 days ago, it was just a blob of rain with 4 different lowsand the CMC was crazy.

Yesterday, it wasnt supposed to ever become even a Depression, just a big rain event for Florida.

Today, it's Tropical Storm Andrea with convection forming around it's center.

Point is, she's a fighter.
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
So I am guessing with track settled in those of us in East Central Florida will be dodging another one!
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That could be nasty for cars on the Keys Highway.
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SAR I'm with you. I can see Andrea getting 5 more mph as she deepens from baroclininc strengthening but that's about it.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am


Andrea's Pressure may fall due to impending interaction with trough approaching E. Coast,
but significant increase in sustained winds
is unlikely.
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow


Not bad hook echos for Florida, nothing like though what we saw a few days ago in OKC.
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here we are the 5th day and a named storm . AND AWAY WE GO
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Wow
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Quoting RyanSperrey:
I'm thinking Andrea will be 55-60 MPH on It's Florida Landfall.

After that, I can see it restrengthening off the east coast of Florida and heading up the US east coast, and making landfall as a weak Tropical Storm in the North East corridor. Part of me wants to say it will hit somewhere along the Maine coast, but the other part of me believes it will skirt across Rode Island/Connecticut and then swerve out to sea before making it's final landfall in Canada as a Post Tropical (perhaps Extra-Tropical) storm.

I can see Andrea never getting much stronger than she is now, treking across Florida as a remnant low, and then doing a belly flop out into the Atlantic.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hmm, I wonder.
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Wait, ppl saying andrea is gonna blow up...you mean a tropical storm can overcome intense sheer? Mst be a super storm...
u
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Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2013 01:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (120°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (104°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.65 in and falling
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 81.0 F

Closest Buoy to Andrea's COC
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Quoting cg2916:
By the way, I can't remember if this has already been posted or not:

GOES-13 will return to GOES-East operations on Thursday, June 6, 2013, at approximately 1534 -1545 UTC (first image at 1545 UTC).
I was pleased to see imagery on the NASA Viewer website today... they didn't even have GOES-14 up on there this past weekend... so I am relieved to hear they have GOES going again... hopefully they have made a permanent fix to the problem.

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Quoting mikatnight:

From that satellite view, it appears to me that Andrea is certainly not getting stronger. It also appears she's moving much more easterly than she was several hours ago.
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I see that geepy and I don't know why it's doing that. The discussion is up on nhc.gov and I have the page, pasting the address. Who knows.
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Tornado Warning for Marathon, FL
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The cone shifted about 20 miles to the west, this ones pretty locked in.
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Hard to tell what Andrea is doing right now, her convection blog has died considerably over the last hour, but she is also developing more smaller storms around her center...*scratches head*
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
ANDREA 11 p.m. discussion is out!

page not found
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309. skook
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NWS Tampa Bay
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ANDREA 11 p.m. discussion is out!
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By the way, I can't remember if this has already been posted or not:

GOES-13 will return to GOES-East operations on Thursday, June 6, 2013, at approximately 1534 -1545 UTC (first image at 1545 UTC).
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What?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Brian, this shows remarkable self-control... lol ... linking instead of cutting and pasting... lol...

For right now I'm more interested in the discussion.


I am an Army officer, I possess self-restraint and know how to behave :) I agree with you about the discussion.
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304. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Link

"ANDREA" discussion page for advisory #2
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I'm thinking Andrea will be 55-60 MPH on It's Florida Landfall.

After that, I can see it restrengthening off the east coast of Florida and heading up the US east coast, and making landfall as a weak Tropical Storm in the North East corridor. Part of me wants to say it will hit somewhere along the Maine coast, but the other part of me believes it will skirt across Rode Island/Connecticut and then swerve out to sea before making it's final landfall in Canada as a Post Tropical (perhaps Extra-Tropical) storm.
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am

Andrea is still a 40-45 mph storm, correct? What mechanism can you see that would cause such rapid intensification given her present position and strength?
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

I am willing to bet there aren't many storm formations in the entire Atlantic in the first 10 days of June
Are you including Bahamian waters in that "Atlantic" area?
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

I am willing to bet there aren't many storm formations in the entire Atlantic in the first 10 days of June


There are a decent number in the western Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean. None in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The next advisory is out!
Brian, this shows remarkable self-control... lol ... linking instead of cutting and pasting... lol...

For right now I'm more interested in the discussion.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's interesting. Doubt it will be able to keep developing an eye will with all the dry air feeding into it.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am


Put down the crack !!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
According to the NHC there have not been many storm formations in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the first 10 days of June.


I am willing to bet there aren't many storm formations in the entire Atlantic in the first 10 days of June
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Quoting thelmores:


Taz..... you have 111,000 posts in 7 years..... that's an average of 43-44 posts a day for every day in the last 7 years! LOL

Looks like Gulf should take you to the bar with him! :D

Andrea hasn't fizzled out..... has a pretty healthy surface circulation....... but is fighting off some dry air and shear......

The largest concern from what I can see.... will be significant amounts of rainfall which locally could be quite significant.


Thelmores Patrap's comment count is higher than Taz's is!
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This means warming in the MDR?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am
I think 70 mph its going to far more like 60 mph!
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ANDREA's 11 p.m. advisory is out!
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289. 7544
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Looks like a NE/ENE Motion? Anyone else see that? Or am I being deceived?


its been moving that way all day imo idk
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288. skook
US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida
"Currently watching a few rotating storms capable of waterspouts / tornadoes off Charlotte and Sarasota counties.Coastal residents be advised"
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Quoting Tazmanian:



go too the bar or some in and get off my back sigh


Taz..... you have 111,000 posts in 7 years..... that's an average of 43-44 posts a day for every day in the last 7 years! LOL

Looks like Gulf should take you to the bar with him! :D

Andrea hasn't fizzled out..... has a pretty healthy surface circulation....... but is fighting off some dry air and shear......

The largest concern from what I can see.... will be significant amounts of rainfall which locally could be quite significant.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like a NE/ENE Motion? Anyone else see that? Or am I being deceived?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
Andrea has now wraped deep tropical moisture around the whole center. Gonna be a interesting night ahead for her a d max should really help ramp up.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2710
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is beginning to strengthen again. A blow up of thunderstorms right over the center. Andrea will likely approach 70 mph or higher by tomorrow am
You willing to make a bet on that?
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According to the NHC there have not been many storm formations in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the first 10 days of June.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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