Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Rough night for the Keys.

Marathon is dealing with supercells while Key West has an intense rainband knocking on their doorstep.
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You people in C/Fl think you get so all the storms in fact most hit part of Florida is S/ Fl Miami to the Key and next is The Fl Panhandle!!
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I'll have a blog update on Andrea shortly, so keep your eyes peeled.
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Quoting MrstormX:


It also covers a very busy maritime shipping channel, and the Florida Keys are among the most likely places in the Atlantic to deal with a tropical cyclone.

Well, all true, but the real reason is so much free dope in big plastic wrapped bales floats up in the Keys...or so I hear. :-)
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Quoting sar2401:

Wait a minute. Can't spell, no caps, lack of punctuation, "not another wrong"...you're really "notanotherwrongyear", right?


Same guy, different handle. Same case every year, it's quite sad really, I have 46 different handles of his on my ignore list. That means this guy has created 46 new email addresses *just* to be able to post his comments. There's a point where trolling because a good laugh that you have to really peeve off people on a blog once or twice and obsessing over a website for years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24190
Quoting wxgeek723:


Because the land area it covers is extremely unsubstantial, I just don't see the need
well acually if jersy fell off the face of the earth it would be like dang. If key west fell off the face of the earth it would be "OMG A TRAGEDY WHAT A TREASURER WE LOST"
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Quoting gilby715:


i guess you werent here in 2004 when 4 hurricanes went thru central florida
not 4 but 3
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Quoting sar2401:

What exactly is a "violent waterspout"?


A "tornadic waterspout" or one with the strength of a tornado on land, as opposed to the usual waterspout which is much weaker.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yikes! I would be absolutely terrified if I was on a highway surrounded by water and a waterspout was headed right for me.

But not if you were in the "Dominator" :-) Where's Reed Timmer when you need him?
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Because the land area it covers is extremely unsubstantial, I just don't see the need


Tell that to the people that live there and the tourists that stay there.

Plus, as already mentioned it lets us spy on Cuba.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Wait, ppl saying andrea is gonna blow up...you mean a tropical storm can overcome intense sheer? Mst be a super storm...
u


Well, consider Sandy. The vast majority thought that it would weaken significantly over Cuba due to the mountainous terrain. Yet, it instead underwent rapid intensification and achieved cat 3 status as it crossed land. And then a few days later, she had a relentless stream of dry air shoved down her throat, and her circulation became totally exposed, not a single bit of convection over it. But she fought all that off too, and made it to the gulf stream to regroup.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 209
Quoting wxgeek723:


Because the land area it covers is extremely unsubstantial, I just don't see the need


It also covers a very busy maritime shipping channel, and the Florida Keys are among the most likely places in the Atlantic to deal with a tropical cyclone.
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A tornado that's over water is always considered a waterspout until in reaches land. There could be a massive mile wide wedge in the middle of the Atlantic and it still would be classified as a waterspout.
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U.S. Clean Air Act Increased Atlanta Rainfall

June 5, 2013 — A Georgia State University researcher is the first to show that the Clean Air Act of 1970 caused a rebound in rainfall for a U.S. city.

Jeremy Diem, an associate professor in the Department of Geosciences, analyzed summer rainfall data from nine weather stations in the Atlanta metropolitan area from 1948 to 2009. He discovered that precipitation increased markedly in the late 1970s as pollution decreased following passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970.

Diem also noted that pollution in the 1950s and 1960s caused rainfall to drop in the Atlanta area.

Previous studies have found a general link between air pollution and rainfall, with higher concentrations of particulates in the air suppressing rainfall.

...
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
yes i was and that was a freek year but since then weve had a force field up

Wait a minute. Can't spell, no caps, lack of punctuation, "not another wrong"...you're really "notanotherwrongyear", right?
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Quoting Dakster:


It's a populated area of the US... And its weather is different than Miami-Dade.

Why wouldn't you want one there?


Because the land area it covers is extremely unsubstantial, I just don't see the need
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maybe I've started a new tradition!
I live in hopes... lol.... unfortunately I have a feeling that only 12 hours separates us from 1/2 dozen versions of the latest advisory being posted on the blog... ;o)
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what do ya know! 5 days into hurricane season the Jersey shore is back in the Cone of Doom!... after sandy a lot of people here have PTSD Post Traumatic Sandy Disorder. Since all the massive beach replenishments our beaches can surely take a storm now but are back bays are very vulnerable. bulk heads still broken and breached. Andrea wont be much more then rain for us but a non weather nerd checking the weather and seeing jersey back in a projected path of a tropical storm wont sit well with some people. If she does have any type of punch left when she arrives to coastal NJ waters ill be on the beaches chasing. Follow that on twitter @StormForce_1
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364. skook
Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Link

NWS Keywest
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It will hit the highway and maybe toss cars into the water.

Yikes! I would be absolutely terrified if I was on a highway surrounded by water and a waterspout was headed right for me.
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Low-level center remains partially exposed.

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Quoting sar2401:

What exactly is a "violent waterspout"?
A waterspout capable of coming ashore and causing significant damage.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting sar2401:

What exactly is a "violent waterspout"?


Causes more damage than a non-violent waterspout? You got me on that one.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Can someone tell me why we even need a NWS office in Key West?

1. Closest mainland station to Cuba

2. Need good weather forecasts to let all the naked people that wander around there know how much suncreen they'll need.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Can someone tell me why we even need a NWS office in Key West?


It's a populated area of the US... And its weather is different than Miami-Dade.

Why wouldn't you want one there?
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Quoting sar2401:

What exactly is a "violent waterspout"?
that radar signature is not a waterspout it is a tornado signature
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Quoting Ameister12:
The northern cell is going to miss Marathon (rotation likely won't even hit land). The southern cell on the over hand will be interesting to watch.


It may hit the highway and may toss cars into the water.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Northern cell is going to miss Marathon (rotation likely won't even hit land). The southern cell on the over hand will be interesting to watch.
now thats not a waterspout
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd say yes. In 7 years... lol...


Maybe I've started a new tradition!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
335. Yeah just keep believing that.

and I think they felt the effects of Wilma there also even though it didnt cross there
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The northern cell is going to miss Marathon (rotation likely won't even hit land). The southern cell on the over hand will be interesting to watch.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hey my discussion link works now. Is this the first time that the advisory text wasn't posted?
I'd say yes. In 7 years... lol...
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Quoting Ameister12:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON
...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARATHON...BOOT KEY AND EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
KNIGHT KEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2471 8114 2470 8116 2471 8116 2472 8110
2475 8104 2474 8102 2476 8101 2478 8093
2476 8092 2476 8094 2471 8102 2472 8104
2471 8106 2469 8107 2468 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 165DEG 17KT 2459 8102

$$

What exactly is a "violent waterspout"?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
they're a big deal if they come ashore lol
not really they are very small . very little damage. mabbe a car port or screen cage damage if its a water spout
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Quoting Ameister12:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON
...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARATHON...BOOT KEY AND EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
KNIGHT KEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2471 8114 2470 8116 2471 8116 2472 8110
2475 8104 2474 8102 2476 8101 2478 8093
2476 8092 2476 8094 2471 8102 2472 8104
2471 8106 2469 8107 2468 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 165DEG 17KT 2459 8102

$$


Can someone tell me why we even need a NWS office in Key West?
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
yes i was and that was a freek year but since then weve had a force field up


I think that's climatology more than anything. That'd be like me saying Pensacola's been under a force field since Ivan and Dennis, but that's not the case at all...they're just in the statistical "in between" period.
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Looks Like the rain is picking up now in Tampa, the patio is officially wet.
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Quoting ncstorm:
All you naysayers at back at it again..You were wrong all day today but I guess that crow must have tasted good as you want to feast again..LOL..

Good night..tomorrow will bring a new day..

I have been saying coming ashore around Cedar Keys as a weak TS. It looks like within 70 miles of Cedar Keys and a 40 MPH TS is about as weak as you can get and still be a TS. At least I wasn't saying a 60-70 MPH storm by tonight like some others.
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Quoting floridaT:
water spouts are no big deal in Florida. When i fish the atlantic in the summer i see one about every third time i go out . sometimes several in one day.
they're a big deal if they come ashore lol
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335. Yeah just keep believing that.

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water spouts are no big deal in Florida. When i fish the atlantic in the summer i see one about every third time i go out . sometimes several in one day.
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
i always say we have a force field around us in central florida ... no matter which direction a storm comes from they seem to always shift away from here


i guess you werent here in 2004 when 4 hurricanes went thru central florida
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON
...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARATHON...BOOT KEY AND EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
KNIGHT KEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2471 8114 2470 8116 2471 8116 2472 8110
2475 8104 2474 8102 2476 8101 2478 8093
2476 8092 2476 8094 2471 8102 2472 8104
2471 8106 2469 8107 2468 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 165DEG 17KT 2459 8102

$$
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338. SLU
.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 44W. FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN
120 NM E OF WAVE SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 13N WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 48.5W. FROM 13N
TO 17N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT. SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 12N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N TO 22N ALONG 54W. N OF
17N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
N OF 18N WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT. SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 14N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tell me again how being wrong once automatically makes you wrong every time following that.

Night.


I guess we will find out wont we?..I've already had crow earlier this year..it goes down easier with a lot of water..goodnight TA..all in good fun and part of this blog for years..
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Hey my discussion link works now. Is this the first time that the advisory text wasn't posted?
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Quoting ncstorm:
All you naysayers at back at it again..You were wrong all day today but I guess that crow must have tasted good as you want to feast again..LOL..

Good night..tomorrow will bring a new day..

Tell me again how being wrong once automatically makes you wrong every time following that.

Night.
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All you naysayers at back at it again..You were wrong all day today but I guess that crow must have tasted good as you want to feast again..LOL..

Good night..tomorrow will bring a new day..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.