Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LostTomorrows:


That thing's a beast. Yikes.


Thanks.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


50 kt and 999.6 mb? That's a bit generous but it does look like she's trying to get her act together. We'll see in the morning what she does.
Look at that increase in convection.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting sar2401:

Holy cow!!! The GFS beat its own record of yesterday, and now shows twenty-five low pressure areas with nary a high pressure area between them. I mean, really, something is clearly wrong with the GFS.

It's just the resolution and relativity that Levi's site uses on the model guidance, maybe look at another site and look at the difference? I haven't looked at the difference but I know Levi's site uses a different relative resolution.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Andrea looks like she is getting stronger.

MCrosky : Bad news, the fog is getting thicker. Johnny : And Andrea's getting laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrger. :-)
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Look at this,Andrea is getting stronger,look at this pass.Link


50 kt and 999.6 mb? That's a bit generous but it does look like she's trying to get her act together. We'll see in the morning what she does.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Look at this,Andrea is getting stronger,look at this pass.Link
Look the same as 6 hours ago except for direction.
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Quoting sar2401:

Holy cow!!! The GFS beat its own record of yesterday, and now shows twenty-five low pressure areas with nary a high pressure area between them. I mean, really, something is clearly wrong with the GFS.
Thank you. I thought I was the only one who saw this. This is more than convective feedback. It's like acid reflux for the GFS. 25 little "L's". Really?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Pretty much need to look at the whole WPAC to give perspective so one can appreciate what 98W is turning into. I think this is expected to go toward Japan.



That thing's a beast. Yikes.
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Look at this,Andrea is getting stronger,look at this pass.Link
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
first named storm and no KEEPER OF THE GATE ?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
00Z GFS 12 HOURS


Holy cow!!! The GFS beat its own record of yesterday, and now shows twenty-five low pressure areas with nary a high pressure area between them. I mean, really, something is clearly wrong with the GFS.
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Tropical Storm Andrea develops in the Gulf, huge rainfall producer for East Coast

My blogs get worse (compared to what I can write) the later at night I publish them, so I apologize in advance lol.
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Andrea looks like she is getting stronger.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting JNTenne:
Ok.. so we have a name.. Andrea.. when is she gonna start to WOBBLE?? Also, is it too early to start talking about what we do when we run outta names this season??

They didnt put points up on the floater so no wobble calls tonight. the guy that does floater points is out on furlough
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Quoting Skyepony:
Pretty much need to look at the whole WPAC to give perspective so one can appreciate what 98W is turning into. I think this is expected to go toward Japan.


The west pacific has been strangely quiet It normally gets the first storm but this year it was the last (not counting the two storms in the first month or so since that's closer to last years season)
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Ok.. so we have a name.. Andrea.. when is she gonna start to WOBBLE?? Also, is it too early to start talking about what we do when we run outta names this season??

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Quoting Skyepony:
Pretty much need to look at the whole WPAC to give perspective so one can appreciate what 98W is turning into. I think this is expected to go toward Japan.


Almost looks like the Mt. Fuji of storms out there.
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00Z GFS 12 HOURS

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Quoting Andrebrooks:
In 10 days,we could be talking about Barry,but it to early to tell,but the models are hinting something.

I hear talk about Barry almost every day...oh, wait, you mean a possible storm. Sorry.
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413. Skyepony (Mod)
Pretty much need to look at the whole WPAC to give perspective so one can appreciate what 98W is turning into. I think this is expected to go toward Japan.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39360
Quoting Bluestorm5:
18z GFS from Florida State University site doesn't show us anything after Andrea.

GFS's run from Florida State University site/a>
You know,it might of been an outlier,twc said there might be some development in the middle of June.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I meant they started to show Andrea on it.
Oh... I'm pretty sure that's a big deal...
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Recon is going back out there right now.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here comes the front sar that will scoop up Andrea and shoot her off to the Northeast.

Yep, that's the one I've been talking about. It's actually a lot stronger and faster than I thought it would be. There's some major flooding in the Montgomery area as these stroms train over the same areas. This trough , plus the dry air, will begin to disrupt Andrea and move her to the east by 0600 tomorrow.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll have a blog update on Andrea shortly, so keep your eyes peeled.
Didn`t I told you Kori that this would probably be name even if it was a mess:D even though I need to recognize she looks so much better.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Dvorak had a big jump east for Andrea..from 26.01N 86.52W to 26.03 86.29



yes, reformed more to the east earlier this evening and has been trending eastward. Im thinking the Tampa area may get a little more rain than first expected.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
In 10 days,we could be talking about Barry,but it to early to tell,but the models are hinting something.
18z GFS from Florida State University site doesn't show us anything after Andrea.

GFS's run from Florida State University site/a>
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Thank's Andrea,I didn't need to mow my lawn tomorrow anyway!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
They've been doing that for as long as I remembered (talking about 10 years or more). It's nothing new.
I meant they started to show Andrea on it.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
coollio good to see ya again lonely rider on a fantastic ride
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Something in the Gulf again.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting Andrebrooks:
The weather channel has the corner with Andrea on the TV Screen.
They've been doing that for as long as I remembered (talking about 10 years or more). It's nothing new.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


A "tornadic waterspout" or one with the strength of a tornado on land, as opposed to the usual waterspout which is much weaker.

OK, but how would one determine that it was a tornadic waterspout rather than it's wimpy brother, the run of the mill waterspout? I don't think even the "Dominator" does open ocean chases. :-)
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In 10 days,we could be talking about Barry,but it to early to tell,but the models are hinting something.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
398. Mikla
Based on the radar, the rotation in the Keys is a waterspout and about to become a tornado as it crosses over the keys. Velocities are not that high, so it could just be circulation that has not come down... let's hope so.
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Quoting sar2401:

Just as rough in Alabama but we don't have a named tropical storm to go with it.

Here comes the front sar that will scoop up Andrea and shoot her off to the Northeast.
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Just ended my 8 hour shift... I am physically and mentally worn out. I also found out during my "lunch break" at 8 pm that Andrea had been named. I'm surprised at that, but I assume NHC found closed low.
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Quoting skook:



Where is this radar from?

Key West radar site.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
How much rain in Naples bud?
Its been horrible here the last few days. extreme humidity and no rain. just sputtering drops. low clouds no sun. this afternoon we got some rain. now lightning in the distance.
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393. skook
Quoting Ameister12:
Rough night for the Keys.

Marathon is dealing with supercells while Key West has an intense rainband knocking on their doorstep.



Where is this radar from?
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392. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak had a big jump east for Andrea..from 26.01N 86.52W to 26.03 86.29
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39360
Quoting Andrebrooks:
The weather channel has the corner with Andrea on the TV Screen.

That's good. I was hoping they wouldn't have any more pictures of the "Dominator" in the corner of the screen.
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Quoting floridaT:
here we are the 5th day and a named storm . AND AWAY WE GO
How much rain in Naples bud?
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I was going to go to bed but I think I will wait for that line thats haeding to Naples to come overhead. should be a good show.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
what do ya know! 5 days into hurricane season the Jersey shore is back in the Cone of Doom!... after sandy a lot of people here have PTSD Post Traumatic Sandy Disorder. Since all the massive beach replenishments our beaches can surely take a storm now but are back bays are very vulnerable. bulk heads still broken and breached. Andrea wont be much more then rain for us but a non weather nerd checking the weather and seeing jersey back in a projected path of a tropical storm wont sit well with some people. If she does have any type of punch left when she arrives to coastal NJ waters ill be on the beaches chasing. Follow that on twitter @StormForce_1
Come dome for real just hope you never get a storm stronger than a cat 1 !
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Quoting Ameister12:
Rough night for the Keys.

Just as rough in Alabama but we don't have a named tropical storm to go with it.

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The weather channel has the corner with Andrea on the TV Screen.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll have a blog update on Andrea shortly, so keep your eyes peeled.
YA THINK ITS TURNING EAST?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same guy, different handle. Same case every year, it's quite sad really, I have 46 different handles of his on my ignore list. That means this guy has created 46 new email addresses *just* to be able to post his comments. There's a point where trolling because a good laugh that you have to really peeve off people on a blog once or twice and obsessing over a website for years.

Isn't that amazing? I just hope he's not armed and knows my address. Never can tell nowadays.
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Rough night for the Keys.

Marathon is dealing with supercells while Key West has an intense rainband knocking on their doorstep.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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