Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sar2401:

I swear, some of the radars dramatically overdepict storms. I've been under some of those red and orange lines and I get a quarter inch, 15 mph gusts, and maybe three flashes of lightning. At least it's not those dang rainbow things though. I've been under what looked like a violent storm shown on a rainbow loop when there were literally clear skies.


I do not understand that seeing 65dbz and at from miami radar.....about 110 miles? to naples? how can it be so wrong and only sprinkles or light rain falling?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Maybe we can wishcast one, Kori. I still have one year for my hiatus on hurricanes. *G*

Energy food on the sideboard, it's going to be a long night: Power bars, ding dongs, chip and dip, and fresh fruit.

Mmmm...Ding Dongs. Always good for s sugar jolt when you're about nod off. You have to get some cop pills for tomorrow night though. I wouldn't have made it through some night shifts without cop pills...that's donuts to you civilians, and preferably jelly filled or the chocolate bars with the white stuff in them. :-)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you trying to ruin my chase? How considerate. :)

How are you, Deb?


Doing great, Kori. Just got back from a week in Navarre, FL, at my son's. For once it wasn't raining while I was there.

I'll let you keep your chase, any hurricane will turn at BR and go east. *G*
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WPac is beginning to awaken.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the boss tells me that ours is from the outer bands of Andrea and the High out in the atlantic

I asked the same question, but i was told that it's from the high and low level jet.
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478. whitewabit (Mod)
Blog Moderation

Sensitivethug Community Manager
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Maybe we can wishcast one, Kori. I still have one year for my hiatus on hurricanes. *G*

Energy food on the sideboard, it's going to be a long night: Power bars, ding dongs, chip and dip, and fresh fruit.


Are you trying to ruin my hypothetical hurricane chase? How considerate. :)

How are you, Deb?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
theres a nasty orange and red squall? line arriving soon!

I swear, some of the radars dramatically overdepict storms. I've been under some of those red and orange lines and I get a quarter inch, 15 mph gusts, and maybe three flashes of lightning. At least it's not those dang rainbow things though. I've been under what looked like a violent storm shown on a rainbow loop when there were literally clear skies.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Why do people keep saying this? There is no Texas death ridge anymore. A ridge has set up along the southwest this year, which could theoretically pump dry air into the Gulf of Mexico proper, but again, there is no Texas death ridge. Not this year.


Maybe we can wishcast one, Kori. I still have one year for my hiatus on hurricanes. *G*

Energy food on the sideboard, it's going to be a long night: Power bars, ding dongs, chip and dip, and fresh fruit.
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Quoting nigel20:

Our met office said that the wind is from the low level jet.

the boss tells me that ours is from the outer bands of Andrea and the High out in the atlantic
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Quoting docrod:
... and now the first test of the new Mod system begins.

Personally I am hopeful. Several of the choices they would have made I completely agree with. The real test is yet to come.

Lot's of thunder in the middle Keys tonight. thankfully the COC is a bit west of earlier projections.

Not looking forward to the rest of the season.

- eve

We have a new mod system? I didn't get the memo. :-)
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Quoting sar2401:

77 with a dewpoint of 71. Major rain is still north of me but should get here in a few hours. Lots of flooding problems from the storms yesterday and today. We have spots that have picked up more than 8" in the last 25 hours. I daresay that's better than Andrea may do.

That's quite a bit of rain in a relatively short period.
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Quoting riblet2000:

I'm in Naples and not so much. A little welcome breeze, some rain (like the last 6 days) and a couple lightning flashes. Not much else.
theres a nasty orange and red squall? line arriving soon!
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey sar!
Is it warm and humid at the moment?

77 with a dewpoint of 71. Major rain is still north of me but should get here in a few hours. Lots of flooding problems from the storms yesterday and today. We have spots that have picked up more than 8" in the last 25 hours. I daresay that's better than Andrea may do.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see Texas is still doing a number on these GOM storms.


Why do people keep saying this? There is no Texas death ridge anymore. A ridge has set up along the southwest this year, which could theoretically pump dry air into the Gulf of Mexico proper, but again, there is no Texas death ridge. Not this year.
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de plane about half way there
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Been a fun day.. nighters all.... all you Jr Highers, do not stay up too late!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is a rather nasty line about to bump up onshore approaching the Naples area.

I'm in Naples and not so much. A little welcome breeze, some rain (like the last 6 days) and a couple lightning flashes. Not much else.
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Quoting Dakster:


That's ok. Apparently she is hot and wet enough to thrive on her own.
I shoulda known who.....LOLOL
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
You know,it might of been an outlier,twc said there might be some development in the middle of June.

Well, if twc said it, that settles it for me.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm noticed the wind picking up from the SE here in cayman max today was 23mph also getting cloudy here now

Our met office said that the wind is from the low level jet.
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Quoting floridaT:
first named storm and no KEEPER OF THE GATE ?


I think your gonna get wet real soon!!
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Radar out of Lubbock is being crazy.

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Quoting JLPR2:
Andrea picked the driest possible place in the entire Atlantic to form.


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Quoting sar2401:

Hi Nigel. Feels like Jamaica here in Alabama now, but we've got some pretty good storms going one here.
Got some nice humidity her in Mid TN.. waiting for a few cells to move in from the West in a couple of hours.. nothing major... Looks like Montgomery is getting pretty wet tonight
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Quoting sar2401:

Hi Nigel. Feels like Jamaica here in Alabama now, but we've got some pretty good storms going one here.

Hey sar!
Is it warm and humid at the moment?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Andrea picked the driest possible place in the entire Atlantic to form.



That's ok. Apparently she is hot and wet enough to thrive on her own.
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Areal Flood Watch


Statement as of 6:44 PM EDT on June 05, 2013




... Flood Watch now in effect from 2 am EDT Thursday through
Friday evening...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* all of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

* From 2 am EDT Thursday through Friday evening

* Tropical Storm Andrea in the central Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy
rainfall to portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia
late tonight through through Friday.

* Urbanized areas and creeks may flood... as well as the north and
south prongs of Black Creek. The time to secure property in
normally flood prone areas is now before the heavy rainfall
begins.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should
take action to secure vulnerable property before the onset of
heavy rainfall.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening friends!

We're having some isolated showers and some gusty ere in Jamaica.

hmm noticed the wind picking up from the SE here in cayman max today was 23mph also getting cloudy here now
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Rain squall with thunder here at Provo tonight...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Andrea picked the driest possible place in the entire Atlantic to form.

I see Texas is still doing a number on these GOM storms.
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... and now the first test of the new Mod system begins.

Personally I am hopeful. Several of the choices they would have made I completely agree with. The real test is yet to come.

Lot's of thunder in the middle Keys tonight. thankfully the COC is a bit west of earlier projections.

Not looking forward to the rest of the season.

- eve
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening friends!

We're having some isolated showers and some gusty winds here in Jamaica.

Hi Nigel. Feels like Jamaica here in Alabama now, but we've got some pretty good storms going one here.
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450. JLPR2
Andrea picked the driest possible place in the entire Atlantic to form.

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448. JLPR2
Noticed that the TW in the CATL hasn't gained latitude at all, its circulation is still around 10N.
Its been deceiving me! XD
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Holy cow!!! It looks like this trough in Alabama is trying to form a new COC...and I'm right in the eye!!!
Honkin' Big Storms
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Good morning night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
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Quoting stormchaser19:




Yeah it is believable now that I look at it again, in the past couple of hours she's been making a pretty remarkble push. Could it be that she's being pumped by the trof up north? Or maybe she's hit an eddy... or both. Either way, she seems to be winning an uphill battle at present.
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That is a rather nasty line about to bump up onshore approaching the Naples area.

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443. JLPR2
Fresh OSCAT of the TW in the CATL.

Neat!

Crossing my fingers and hoping it catches Andrea as well.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening friends!

We're some isolated showers and some gusty ere in Jamaica.

Good evening... And Goodnight :)
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Good evening friends!

We're having some isolated showers and some gusty winds here in Jamaica.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

I finally just ignored him... -_-
Now I really know what the elders were talking about hating the fact school is out because kids are on here way more often. Good lord.
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Station 42003 (LLNR 1395) - East GULF - 208 MN West of Naples, FL

26.044 N 85.612 W (26°2'38" N 85°36'42" W)
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the line of storms approaching the SW coast of Florida looking more and more like a feeder band
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


50 kt and 999.6 mb? That's a bit generous but it does look like she's trying to get her act together. We'll see in the morning what she does.


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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Look at this,Andrea is getting stronger,look at this pass.Link

You realize that's about four hours old now, right. We'll wait for DMax and see what happens but, right now, our storms in Alabama have a lot more convection that what I see in Andrea.
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Gotta say, the new GHCC color scale chooser is pretty awesome.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Look the same as 6 hours ago except for direction.

I finally just ignored him... -_-
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


That thing's a beast. Yikes.


Thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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