Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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...ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER...
1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 26.8N 86.2W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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582. 7544
nice blow up forming in the middile of the state south all movin east looks like some action soon for miami
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Quoting swflurker:
Anyone got a link for the 10 storm risk area's?
I was surprised to Naples, Fl on the the list.
Wilma hit us in 2005 and was retired. BTW, its raining cats, dogs, and frogs here!


http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/10 -most-overdue-hurricane-cities-20130531
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I'm going to bed... I got 3 to midnight shift later today.
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Quoting swflurker:
Anyone got a link for the 10 storm risk area's?
I was surprised to Naples, Fl on the the list.
Wilma hit us in 2005 and was retired. BTW, its raining cats, dogs, and frogs here!

Here it is.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
Quoting OceanMoan:


Charleston IS tough, but imagine how much longer it would have taken to recover if it had gotten the brunt of the storm surge. Downtown floods when there are heavy rains.
You're right. Hugo DID missed Charleston with surge. Like you said, Charleston will get hit hard if they get a bigger surge than Hugo. However, I'm still saying Charleston is a tough town.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon found several 50 mph observations, with one reading over 55 mph. Andrea has intensified.

Latest intermediate advisory puts it at 45 mph. This is conservative.

Something strange is happening. We've had a pretty strong front pass through the north and central part of Alabama over the past eight hours. All the storms were moving SE, as you would expect. Within the last hour, all the storms have reversed direction and a now moving NE, along with new storms forming in the Panhandle. It almost seems as if Andrea has strengthened enough to have some kind of outflow interaction with the front and is now pushing the drier air back north. If this is what's happening, that HurricaneScott guy could turn out to be right with his 60-70 mph prediction at landfall.
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They just found a 52.4 mph wind in past few minutes but only 1 spot.. they need more.. and more will appear
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI

I think two cities in west central and southwest Florida at the top of the list partially because when climatological conditions are best for steering a storm into west central Florida, other factors like shear, dry air and instability are the worst. At the height of the hurricane season hurricanes tend to be going between west to north-northwest which disfavors a hit on Tampa. Charlie was a close call though for Tampa, I thought Wilma hit Naples though?
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
Anyone got a link for the 10 storm risk area's?
I was surprised to Naples, Fl on the the list.
Wilma hit us in 2005 and was retired. BTW, its raining cats, dogs, and frogs here!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon found several 50 mph observations, with one reading over 55 mph. Andrea has intensified.

Latest intermediate advisory puts it at 45 mph. This is conservative.

at flt level they found 50mph winds but not at the surface (yet)
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Doesn't bode well for Florida with the rain and storms/poss tornados.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
True, Charleston is slightly overdue. All of Carolinas are overdue for another Category 4 direct landfall (I'm not talking Hatteras Sweeper). However, Charleston is little stronger than people would think. It's a old city, but it's also a tough little Southern city.


Charleston IS tough, but imagine how much longer it would have taken to recover if it had gotten the brunt of the storm surge. Downtown floods when there are heavy rains.
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Quoting TampaCat5:
Rhode Island is such a small state, I would think Providence is too specific an area. They say Tampa, but do they mean the Tampa Bay area? That is much larger.




This is what it says:

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa was in 1921 when the Tampa Bay Hurricane hit, causing millions in damage. Since then, Tampa Bay area's population has increased 1300 percent.
•Population (2010) - 335,709
•Evacuation Time (if Cat. 5 hit) - 68 hours
•Storm Surge Losses (per capita) - $17,813
•Years Overdue - 91

Hurricane Isaac gave a scare to the Tampa area in 2012 when the Republican National Convention was in town. However, the weather impacts were negligible according to meteorologists.

The Tampa metropolitan area also includes the cities of St. Petersburg, Sarasota, and Clearwater. Combined, those cities have a population of about 4,000,000. That's a lot of people are trying to get out the region when a hurricane is nearing its shores.
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Highest winds about 115 miles SE of the center
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Rhode Island is such a small state, I would think Providence is too specific an area. They say Tampa, but do they mean the Tampa Bay area? That is much larger.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI

Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
If I wasn't working today, I would've gotten a blog done by now. I might do a blog about impact from Andrea here in North Carolina after Andrea pass over us.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Article says:

•Years Overdue - 24 years

Hurricane Hugo made landfall in 1989 as a Category 4 storm. It was responsible for more than two dozen deaths in the U.S. and about $7 billion in damage. At the time, it was one of the most damaging hurricanes ever recorded. However, the worst of the storm surge missed Charleston.
True, Charleston is slightly overdue. All of Carolinas are overdue for another Category 4 direct landfall (I'm not talking Hatteras Sweeper). However, Charleston is little stronger than people would think. It's a old city, but it's also a tough little Southern city.
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Microwave imagery shows an increase in organization compared to earlier today/yesterday, but still a sheared storm:

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Recon found several 50 mph observations, with one reading over 55 mph. Andrea has intensified.

Latest intermediate advisory puts it at 45 mph. This is conservative.
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HH found 47.1mph on surface
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1000.9 Mb, and max winds of nearly 52 Knots so far Note: winds at the flight level
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update took a little longer than I thought, but here it is...


Great job as usual Kori!!

Appreciate you pushing it east of PC. Was planning on going tubing Saturday.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
I was just reading an interesting article about the ten most vulnerable and overdue cities for hurricanes. Four of the ten were in Florida. But the one that surprised me was Providence, RI.

Take a look at Providence on a map of Rhode Island and Mobile on a map of Alabama. Both are at the heads of large, relatively shallow bays. Mobile at least has to take almost a direct south hit to really be in trouble, but Narragansett Bay is situated just right to have north or northwest moving storm pile up water in the bay, and the storm surge is what would cause all the damage in Providence, as it would in Mobile. Both cities are both overdue for a "Big One".
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
That surprised me because downtown Charleston, SC took a direct hit from Category 4 hurricane in 1989 (Hugo for those that don't know). The surge and damage was bad but downtown Charleston recovered quickly. It took the surrounding area a decade to recover however. By the time I was born in Charleston 6 years later, scars from Hugo remained in the surrounded area. Now, there are still concretes along the beach (especially Folly Island) that used to be homes 25 years ago.


Article says:

•Years Overdue - 24 years

Hurricane Hugo made landfall in 1989 as a Category 4 storm. It was responsible for more than two dozen deaths in the U.S. and about $7 billion in damage. At the time, it was one of the most damaging hurricanes ever recorded. However, the worst of the storm surge missed Charleston.
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Highest surface winds I have seen are 41.4mph

Time: 05:13:30Z
Coordinates: 26.15N 85.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,519 meters (~ 4,984 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.5 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 220° at 40 knots (From the SW at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 17.4°C (~ 63.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI
I also would argue that Carolina Beach near Wilmington doesn't look like it's a strong hurricane town. A Hugo-sized storm with worse surge could wipe out Pleasure Island (where Kure Beach and Carolina Beach are located).
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI
That surprised me because downtown Charleston, SC took a direct hit from Category 4 hurricane in 1989 (Hugo for those that don't know). The surge and damage was bad but downtown Charleston recovered quickly. It took the surrounding area a decade to recover however. By the time I was born in Charleston 6 years later, scars from Hugo remained in the surrounded area. Now, there are still concretes along the beach (especially Folly Island) that used to be homes 25 years ago.
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I have just finished a blog entry on TS Andrea for those interested:

Link

Also, it appears recon is confirming that Andrea is slowly intensifying.
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Blog update took a little longer than I thought, but here it is...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19894
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

At 10,000 feet in the air, not at ground level. 50-55 knots at flight level translate to 35-40 knots at the surface.

Sorry, my bad
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552. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon threw a dropsonde at the center. Judging by the 9kts at the 1002mb center they may have been a little off or it's still disorganized the center isn't as calm as it could be.

Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 6th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 26.7N 86.2W
Location: 246 miles (396 km) to the WSW (249°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (29.59 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 80° (from the E) 9 knots (10 mph)
1000mb 16m (52 ft) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.9°C (75.0°F) 85° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
925mb 699m (2,293 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.7°C (69.3°F) 85° (from the E) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,430m (4,692 ft) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 55° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)
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551. 7544
Quoting Skyepony:


looks like the se fl coast is goona see some action now it been very dry so far from miami to wpb
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Quoting stormchaser19:
50-55 Knots winds, Andrea is strengthening


At 10,000 feet in the air, not at ground level. 50-55 knots at flight level translate to 35-40 knots at the surface.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI


I was reading the article, said Providence was 21 years overdue. It surprised me too.
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50-55 Knots winds, Andrea is strengthening

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547. Skyepony (Mod)
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546. Skyepony (Mod)
WKNG FLG is OFF now & constraints just turned back to NO LIMIT.
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Quoting OceanMoan:


That seemed a bit odd to me.


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What was that CMC forecast? 998mb?


Matter when...1 run it had it at 988 another 998... it went back and forth but if it does get to 998..I will give it credit
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543. Skyepony (Mod)
They were flying pretty level when they got that 1000.9mb too. Maybe staying closer to 5000ft tonight.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1000.9 millibars on the first pass through the center.


What was that CMC forecast? 998mb?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
looks like NNE heading?


Correct
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And that is mostly due to the fact that it is so relatively flat here. There is really nowhere for water to "funnel" in to, but yes there are pockets here and there that have been historically flood prone.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually, it just seems that way because we get a lot of heavy rain events during the rainy season. However, the area in general is not flood prone and can handle far more rainfall than most regions. Of course there are pockets that flood easier. However that is a given, there will always be pockets of flood prone regions no matter where you live.

Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1000.9 millibars on the first pass through the center.


yep 1001 MB is the pressure...might drop another 2mbs in the next 8-10hrs
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looks like NNE heading?
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Quoting sar2401:

Not at all. It didn't show up on Google image search, which is usually the first sign of a fake...or a picture that was just posted but not indexed yet, which was obviously the case here. I wonder how many equipment violation citations they've gotten so far. :-)
It was on Twitter when I found it. It was about 4 hours old. Also, the owner of car (don't know the name, as I found this on a site) said this on Facebook:

Its my car. We were driving it into our neighborhood plaza towers to let our neighbors, victims, volunteers and other people see it. Put a smile on their face which is all we wanted to do. Can call me/us hillbillies, idiots, whatever you want but it was well worth it. Im sure you can ask anyone of the hundreds of people we took pictures with on saturday and im sure they would agree.

The Moore PD was very cool about us driving the car after they knew what we were doing and where we were taking it. Hats off to them.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


False again. It just seems that way because we get a lot of heavy rain events during the rainy season. However, the area in general is not flood prone and can handle far more rainfall than most regions. Of course there are pockets that flood easier. However that is a given, there will always be pockets of flood prone regions no matter where you live.


Most of S Tampa and 9th Street in St pete towards the Bay get flooding all the time...also in Apollo Beach..I know.. I work at the NWS and lived here for 22 years :)
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535. Skyepony (Mod)
Key West Radar
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1000.9 millibars on the first pass through the center.
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Quoting scottsvb:


False... many parts of Tampa and St Pete are prone to flooding..especially near 9th street in St Pete,and close to the bay, also Bayshore and parts of S Tampa


Actually, it just seems that way because we get a lot of heavy rain events during the rainy season. However, the area in general is not flood prone and can handle far more rainfall than most regions. Of course there are pockets that flood easier. However that is a given, there will always be pockets of flood prone regions no matter where you live.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7272

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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