Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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633. Patrap
7:14 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
(UTC/GMT)
The current time and date right now in (UTC/GMT) is
7:16

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
632. StormTrackerScott
7:14 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Turning east and strengthening?
looking at the Tampa bay radar it would appear Andrea is moving ene now
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1023
631. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:11 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Turning east and strengthening?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
630. VAbeachhurricanes
7:09 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 07:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 6:44:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°02'N 85°53'W (27.0333N 85.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 218 miles (350 km) to the S (183°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 117° at 49kts (From the ESE at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the quadrant at 0:87
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 087/63 06:03:00Z
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708
629. StormTrackerScott
7:05 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Pressure drop of 4 millibars in 3 hours. Impressive with bouys reporting 55 knt winds just off shore of Tampa bay
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1023
628. allancalderini
7:04 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Might be correct I remember saying Andrea will probably peak at 60 or 65mph.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
627. HurricaneHunterJoe
7:01 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
She looks to have jogged to the right if that center position is correct?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
626. Patrap
6:59 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Watches, Warnings & Advisories


Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Tropical Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST AND THE GULF WATERS...


.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. NO CHANGES TO EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HIL LSBOROUGH...
MANATEE...SARASOTA...DESOTO AND CHARLOTTE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8N...LONGITUDE 86.2W. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH OR
10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE MAIN THREATS WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES FROM SARASOTA COUNTY
NORTHWARD WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF SARASOTA
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES COULD OCCUR.
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFFSHORE WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING
HIGH SEAS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE
WATER LEVEL RISE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME THAT IS NOT WELL-ANCHORED...LEAVE IT FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GMZ830-850-853-856-870-873-876-070645-
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
232 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
625. AtHomeInTX
6:59 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
aislinnpaps brought up something important to think about. Just because your area may not have been affected by a major hurricane in a long time doesn't mean it won't be. And no it doesn't take a cat 5 to do the deed. Just watched a video about the NW Gulf hurricanes put out by the Lake Charles NWS. How we went 48 years between Audrey and Rita. And then only 3 years between Rita and Ike. Not the only storms to affect this area but those were the worst. A cat 4,3 & 2. So it also goes to show even if you were affected by a major storm recently you aren't necessarily off the hook either. In any given year. But aislinnpaps said we wouldn't get anymore hurricanes for 10 years after Ike so I'm gonna go with that. ;)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
624. hurricanes2018
6:58 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting scottsvb:
998MB impressed = 55mph with dropsone support... 55 or 60mph it will be by 5am (should that is)
no way!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11097
623. VAbeachhurricanes
6:56 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Time: 06:46:00Z
Coordinates: 27.0N 85.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,474 meters (~ 4,836 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.7 mb (~ 29.49 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 87° at 3 knots (From the E at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 17.7°C (~ 63.9°F)
Dew Pt: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708
622. hurricanes2018
6:56 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
RAINFALL!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11097
621. Patrap
6:55 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Thursday, June 06, 2013

Posted at 1:38 AM

Rain continuing to spread north
Through 400 AM, light rain will continue to spread northward across east central Florida. Widespread light rain covering the area from central Brevard and Osceola Counties southward will move over areas from greater Orlando and the Cape Canaveral areas northward across Lake, Orange, Seminole and Volusia Counties. The heaviest rain will still fall across areas around Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee River basin, where an additional one to three tenths of an inch of rain are likely.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
620. scottsvb
6:54 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
998MB impressed = 55mph with dropsone support... 55 or 60mph it will be by 5am (should that is)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
619. moniquie94
6:51 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting thelmores:


DON'T SAY THAT WORD! THAT CITY NOT TO BE NAMED!!!


This is hours after you posted, but I still gotta ask: what's the superstition about Omaha? We're very non-threatening here. :)
Member Since: June 4, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
618. Patrap
6:51 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
617. Patrap
6:50 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
616. masonsnana
6:47 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
I'm in Cape Coral and we're getting heavy rains
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
615. HurrMichaelOrl
6:44 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Maybe. But even those areas actually in the radar indicated thunderstorms well to our SW are reporting nothing that impressive.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
614. VAbeachhurricanes
6:44 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Time: 06:41:30Z
Coordinates: 27.15N 85.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,494 meters (~ 4,902 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.4 mb (~ 29.54 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 130° at 15 knots (From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 16.7°C (~ 62.1°F)
Dew Pt: 16.7°C (~ 62.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708
613. bigwes6844
6:39 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Look at the High Pressure on each different model. WOW


Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2473
612. StormTrackerScott
6:34 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Interesting. When was the last time Honolulu was hit by a hurricane? Has one ever been recorded to directly hit the island of Oahu? As far as I know, the last time the state was hit by a 'cane was Iniki in 1992. But if Kauai can be hit, so can Oahu I suppose, even if only a few times per millennium. Talk about a rare event.

I also believe Andrea is strengthening, based on the satellite presentation. Most likely my area will be too far from the center to get any winds above 10-15 mph (a few gusts 25-30 maybe) and we may end up on the dry side of the storm by the time it makes landfall tomorrow. Not expecting prodigious amounts of rain from this one here.
it's coming Mike infact Orlando may be dealing flooding rains and tornadoes by daybreak
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1023
611. swflurker
6:34 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Thanks!
Quoting TampaCat5:

Here it is.
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
610. Gearsts
6:31 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Scary facts that i didn't know:Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was hit by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

Also, with an Accumulated cyclone energy of 73.57, it has the highest ACE of any Atlantic hurricane in history. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan became the second Atlantic hurricane to surpass an ACE value of 70, but did not surpass the San Ciriaco hurricane.

San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days (31 including subtropical time).
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1036
609. HurrMichaelOrl
6:31 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Top ten cities are:

1 Tampa, Fla.
2 Naples, Fla.
3 Jacksonville, Fla.
4 Honolulu, Hawaii
5 Houston
6 Savannah, Ga.
7 Mobile, Ala.
8 Charleston, S.C.
9 Key West, Fla.
10 Providence, RI


Interesting. When was the last time Honolulu was hit by a hurricane? Has one ever been recorded to directly hit the island of Oahu? As far as I know, the last time the state was hit by a 'cane was Iniki in 1992. But if Kauai can be hit, so can Oahu I suppose, even if only a few times per millennium. Talk about a rare event.

I also believe Andrea is strengthening, based on the satellite presentation. Most likely my area will be too far from the center to get any winds above 10-15 mph (a few gusts 25-30 maybe) and we may end up on the dry side of the storm by the time it makes landfall tomorrow. Not expecting prodigious amounts of rain from this one here.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
608. bigwes6844
6:28 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2473
607. bigwes6844
6:23 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
morning night shift im finally off from work
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2473
606. Speeky
6:22 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
T.S. Andrea is the Atlantic's 1500th tropical storm since record keeping began in 1851
Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 292
604. TampaCat5
6:20 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting TampaCat5:


TWC (the original source of the list) says it is only 21 years overdue. I'd like to know TWC's criteria but their website is taking forever to load for me right now.

One of the criteria TWC is using is evacuation time for a Category 5 hurricane, which is not a good criteria IMO. CONUS Cat 5 landfalls are very rare and I don't think one has ever happened in New England (correct me if I'm wrong?) and I doubt one would ever happen in Tampa (well maybe once in 500 years).
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
603. sar2401
6:19 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting 7544:


might be a ri at this hour
No, it's no RI. The big winds are flight level, not at the surface. Surface winds are 45-50 mph.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9957
602. sar2401
6:18 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Well, I am off to bed. Teacher's favorite months? June and July! Night all!

Good night, Deb. You have get up early to make breakfast. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9957
601. 7544
6:17 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
ime: 06:02:30Z
Coordinates: 27.0667N 84.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,524 meters (~ 5,000 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.8 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 151° at 62 knots (From the SSE at ~ 71.3 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C* (~ 61.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)


might be a ri at this hour
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
By the way I wasn't guessing by saying Andrea would be a 60 t o 70 mph storm at landfall. Once the coc relocated further east I knew we would have a strong TS on our hands as the atmosphere within 350 miles of Florida was saturated with deep tropical moisture. It was the blog guessing this would be a bust
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1023
ime: 06:02:30Z
Coordinates: 27.0667N 84.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,524 meters (~ 5,000 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.8 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 151° at 62 knots (From the SSE at ~ 71.3 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C* (~ 61.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708
Quoting TampaCat5:

I think two cities in west central and southwest Florida at the top of the list partially because when climatological conditions are best for steering a storm into west central Florida, other factors like shear, dry air and instability are the worst. At the height of the hurricane season hurricanes tend to be going between west to north-northwest which disfavors a hit on Tampa. Charlie was a close call though for Tampa, I thought Wilma hit Naples though?

There's another and, I think, better list, at Hurricane City. It's the top 50 and includes the Caribbean, Mexico, and the Central America Caribbean coasts. Jim Williams explains the ranks for each one and gives a short history of hurricane impacts in the recent past.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9957
597. 7544
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Andrea is continuing to intensify as radar images are estimating 60 mph winds just off of Tampa. Very dangerous day ahead for Florida with all the flooding concerns and the tornado risk.


and you may have been right lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting TampaCat5:

I think two cities in west central and southwest Florida at the top of the list partially because when climatological conditions are best for steering a storm into west central Florida, other factors like shear, dry air and instability are the worst. At the height of the hurricane season hurricanes tend to be going between west to north-northwest which disfavors a hit on Tampa. Charlie was a close call though for Tampa, I thought Wilma hit Naples though?


Hurricane Charlie was a sheer monster. It would of been Cat five had it Tampa. The only reason it did not hit was because it felt a weakness in the periphery in the high. Otherwise, there was little sheer, and in a very favorable environment in August. In october and June when storms track northeast, then yes, not as strong, but you can never rule out a hurricane like Donna sweeping up the west coast of FL!
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
Andrea is continuing to intensify as radar images are estimating 60 mph winds just off of Tampa. Very dangerous day ahead for Florida with all the flooding concerns and the tornado risk.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1023
Well, I am off to bed. Teacher's favorite months? June and July! Night all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Again, look at a map of Providence in relationship to its location on the bay. In a large storm surge event, Providence and few small cities aroud Providence would take the brunt of the storm surge. I think it's rated as overdue because it hasn't had a storm of the right trajectory since, I think, 1938, but it's inevitable one will occur, just like the one that's going to great damage to Mobile.

TWC (the original source of the list) says it is only 21 years overdue. I'd like to know TWC's criteria but their website is taking forever to load for me right now.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
s: 26.9N 84.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,523 meters (~ 4,997 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.4 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 161° at 59 knots (From the SSE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Dew Pt: 16.5°C (~ 61.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate: 25 mm/hr (~ 0.98 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Flight level winds hovering around 60mph (ignore the SFMR reading of 60.9mph, recorded in highest rain rates), which may support 50mph cyclone.

+1
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
Looks like the the headquarters of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) picked a safe place! (Tampa)
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
Flight level winds hovering around 60mph (ignore the SFMR reading of 60.9mph, recorded in highest rain rates), which may support 50mph cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:


It's called a good guess

True, and that's what's really galling about it. :-(
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9957
587. whitewabit (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 05:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 5:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°39'N 86°13'W (26.65N 86.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 248 miles (399 km) to the WSW (248°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 38kts (From the NE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT 132/68 05:21:50Z

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaCat5:
Rhode Island is such a small state, I would think Providence is too specific an area. They say Tampa, but do they mean the Tampa Bay area? That is much larger.


Again, look at a map of Providence in relationship to its location on the bay. In a large storm surge event, Providence and few small cities aroud Providence would take the brunt of the storm surge. I think it's rated as overdue because it hasn't had a storm of the right trajectory since, I think, 1938, but it's inevitable one will occur, just like the one that's going to great damage to Mobile.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9957
Quoting TampaCat5:

I think two cities in west central and southwest Florida at the top of the list partially because when climatological conditions are best for steering a storm into west central Florida, other factors like shear, dry air and instability are the worst. At the height of the hurricane season hurricanes tend to be going between west to north-northwest which disfavors a hit on Tampa. Charlie was a close call though for Tampa, I thought Wilma hit Naples though?


Naples:

The last major hurricane to hit Naples was Hurricane Donna in 1960. Since that time the population has jumped 2000%. Hurricane Donna impacted every state along the eastern seaboard. Hurricane Donna holds the record for retaining major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater) in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time.

•Population (2010) - 19,537
•Evacuation Time (if Cat. 5 hit) - 79 hours
•Storm Surge Losses (per capita) - $50,266
•Years Overdue - 52

Hurricane Wilma also impacted Naples in 2005. Wilma caused significant damage to the Naples Airport and damaged high-rises and homes throughout the area.
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Quoting sar2401:

Something strange is happening. We've had a pretty strong front pass through the north and central part of Alabama over the past eight hours. All the storms were moving SE, as you would expect. Within the last hour, all the storms have reversed direction and a now moving NE, along with new storms forming in the Panhandle. It almost seems as if Andrea has strengthened enough to have some kind of outflow interaction with the front and is now pushing the drier air back north. If this is what's happening, that HurricaneScott guy could turn out to be right with his 60-70 mph prediction at landfall.


It's called a good guess
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1517
...ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER...
1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 26.8N 86.2W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.