Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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It appears we are going to see a very nasty squall line approaching the west coast of Florida later associated with Andrea. Based on surface obs winds will veer onshore with this so we will likely see the strongest winds with this band and possibly additional tornadoes.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting allancalderini:
40 and 45mph is weak ts 50 and 60 is mid tropical storm and 65 to 70 is strong ts.Afternoon I predicted Andrea to reach a peak of 60 to 65mph looks like I was correct:D.


So 45-50 is mid-weak and 60-65 is mid-strong? :-P
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Pfft. You going to bed during a landfalling tropical cyclone will never happen. Ever. ;)

When one gets old it becomes pretty easy to go to bed no matter what kind of tropical system is out there. Trust me. :^)

I just got a solid three hours of sleep myself.
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
if tropical storm Andrea get little more stronger it will be a huuricane with winds up to 75 mph..haha


We won't see a hurricane unless that convection can wrap around the southern half of the circulation and furnish a banding eye.
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This would explain the explosion of lightning:




Some modest surface instability with CAPE of 1000 to 2000 is feeding into the squall line that is spiraling out from the center, this may explain the surge of lightning. The main reason lightning lacks in tropical systems is a lack of surface instability and a saturated atmospheric column, that and greatly stretched out updrafts and not very steep lapse rates due to so much latent heating being released.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Blowing and hard rain here in Mulberry, Fl. I am just south of Lakeland in Polk Co.
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if tropical storm Andrea get little more stronger it will be a huuricane with winds up to 75 mph..haha
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Andrea getting a little more stronger aircraft reported 65 mph winds.
maybe it will hit 70 mph later
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01L/TS/A/CX

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Andrea getting a little more stronger aircraft reported 65 mph winds.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


...I don't know... she's really more like upper mid-strength upper mid-strength, like maybe 78%? Point 27?
40 and 45mph is weak ts 50 and 60 is mid tropical storm and 65 to 70 is strong ts.Afternoon I predicted Andrea to reach a peak of 60 to 65mph looks like I was correct:D.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Looks like Andrea reach mid strong tropical storm category.


...I don't know... she's really more like upper mid-strength upper mid-strength, like maybe 78%? Point 27?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Although the most likely scenario is for little change in strength (or even slight weakening due to cooler shelf waters and possible entrainment of drier air) prior to landfall, I don't think I would rule out a bit more strengthening to about 65 mph. There seems to be enough diffluence being provided by the approaching frontal trough, and the acceleration could maximize the winds in the eastern semicircle.

Unfortunately, these sheared systems like Andrea interacting with baroclinic environments are always unpredictable, so it could go either way.


Yeah baroclinic interaction with a tropical system can definitely be strange and unpredictable. It's hard to say what ll happen. Although it doesn't like Andrea is structured such that training rains will setup on the coast and dump flooding rains. This system has developed an odd structure with a strong band stretched out west to east over land.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Looks like Andrea reach mid strong tropical storm category.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



When I saw bed that's my attempt at responsibility, however that's not going to happen. There's no way I'm going to bed now. Especially being that Andrea has ramped up to 60 mph and a developing squall line on the east side is producing quite a bit of lightning which is a bit strange. If Andrea had more time and less shear I would think its making a run for a solid hurricane before landfall.


Although the most likely scenario is for little change in strength (or even slight weakening due to cooler shelf waters and possible entrainment of drier air) prior to landfall, I don't think I would rule out a bit more strengthening to about 65 mph. There seems to be enough diffluence being provided by the approaching frontal trough, and the acceleration could maximize the winds in the eastern semicircle.

Unfortunately, these sheared systems like Andrea interacting with baroclinic environments are always unpredictable, so it could go either way.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Pfft. You going to bed during a landfalling tropical cyclone will never happen. Ever. ;)



When I said bed that's my attempt at responsibility, however that's not going to happen. There's no way I'm going to bed now. Especially being that Andrea has ramped up to 60 mph and a developing squall line on the east side is producing quite a bit of lightning which is a bit strange. If Andrea had more time and less shear I would think its making a run for a solid hurricane before landfall. An increase in lightning like that typically is a sign of significant attempts at intensification.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I imagine this system will produce a large area of strong convection in the next few hours during dmax like it has been doing every morning now for the past five (?) days....

That should persist and slowly move ene as Andrea comes ashore...

You got any coffee Jed? Largo is lagging


I'll drink Coffee later before I head to work. But heck meteorology is an energy stimulant of its own for me, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Damage in wpb tonight
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Quoting TBayEyes:


im sorry so why even bother reporting it? Is it possible an ef-0 can bring down a power line? If so that is a deadly hazard that people should be aware of. Even after the pip squeak thing is long gone. Right?


People are starting to hit the road right about now, so even an EF0 is a hazard to drivers. Better report it than have a bunch of people say "wth!?".
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I have to work at 7, and I've only had a few hours of sleep, it might be wise for me to attempt to go back to bed, but it probably won't work lol.
yeah. My body is telling me to sleep, but I know if I do ill regret missing a portion (as boring as it may end up being) of possibly the only tropical action I will see this season hehe
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TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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...ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I have to work at 7, and I've only had a few hours of sleep, it might be wise for me to attempt to go back to bed, but it probably won't work lol.


Pfft. You going to bed during a landfalling tropical cyclone will never happen. Ever. ;)
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm not surprised to see you awake jedkins


I have to work at 7, and I've only had a few hours of sleep, it might be wise for me to attempt to go back to bed, but it probably won't work lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting Jedkins01:
The squall line out in the gulf is producing a ton of lightning, expect that to be very strong as it approaches the coast...
I imagine this system will produce a large area of strong convection in the next few hours during dmax like it has been doing every morning now for the past five (?) days....

That should persist and slowly move ene as Andrea comes ashore...

You got any coffee Jed? Largo is lagging
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We are gettin quite a bit of rain here on the far north-western edge. Definately making it to the ground up here. No lightening though.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Much better organized:



Now to see if it lasts.


Definately looking more healthy for now
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The squall line out in the gulf is producing a ton of lightning, expect that to be very strong as it approaches the coast...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting TBayEyes:


im sorry so why even bother reporting it? Is it possible an ef-0 can bring down a power line? If so that is a deadly hazard that people should be aware of. Even after the pip squeak thing is long gone. Right?

Again it is night, an EF-0 should not bring down anything but an already structurally weakened power line, or worse really, a rotted tree. Again it is night, when people are out and about it is certainly good to be aware that winds could suddenly gust up to hurricane force out of nowhere (EF-0).
In general though, I guess my point is, don't go about at night during an approaching tropical storm.
We had some bad rains here at night and a lot of people flooded there cars because they simply could not see how deep the water was.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
Quoting Jedkins01:


The wind is gusting over 30 mph here in Central Pinellas. This is a weird tropical cyclone, the strong cells inland at night is odd to me...

I'm not surprised to see you awake jedkins
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
it's so interesting how different the weather can be as you go a only a few miles inland. I'm 12 miles inland from tarpon springs and the highest wind I've recorded is a gust of 11 lol


The wind is gusting over 30 mph here in Central Pinellas. This is a weird tropical cyclone, the strong cells inland at night is odd to me...

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno, this sounds more like low-end EF1 damage to me:

0653 MYAKKA CITY MANATEE FL 2735 8216 BUILDING IN ROADWAY ... POSSIBLY A SHED. POWERLINES DOWN NEAR SINGLETARY RD AND STATE RD 70. (TBW)
0659 MYAKKA CITY MANATEE FL 2735 8216 DAMAGE TO A HOUSE. POOL CAGE TORN DOWN (TBW)

Severe sea breeze storms do this type of damage here. Pool cages are easy fodder for even moderate winds. I guess I'm not too concerned because it's night, and possibly also because I still have the El Rino EF-5 on my mind. I would be concerned if I were in a mobile home or trailer park, which are sort of glorified sheds. A low end EF-1 could be bad.
Rain in north Tampa has picked up to about 1/2" an hour.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
The cell that produced the tornado is about twenty minutes from me, and although there is no more tvs, it looks like some very heavy rain and will be the first "bad" weather from Andrea for my location
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Quoting TampaCat5:

EF-0 Tornadoes, unless you live in a tent or are walking outside, much ado about nothing.


im sorry so why even bother reporting it? Is it possible an ef-0 can bring down a power line? If so that is a deadly hazard that people should be aware of. Even after the pip squeak thing is long gone. Right?
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Quoting RyanSperrey:
Anyone have the latest Sea Surface Pressure readings?

997 MB
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Quoting TampaCat5:

EF-0 Tornadoes, unless you live in a tent or are walking outside, much ado about nothing.


I dunno, this sounds more like low-end EF1 damage to me:

0653 MYAKKA CITY MANATEE FL 2735 8216 BUILDING IN ROADWAY ... POSSIBLY A SHED. POWERLINES DOWN NEAR SINGLETARY RD AND STATE RD 70. (TBW)
0659 MYAKKA CITY MANATEE FL 2735 8216 DAMAGE TO A HOUSE. POOL CAGE TORN DOWN (TBW)
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Anyone have the latest Sea Surface Pressure readings?
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691. skook
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
that cell seems to be redeveloping. I am in Odessa and set an alarm for now since I figured the first heavier squall would be coming through at this time...

At first when I saw satellite I was expecting this to be over quickly given the Andrea's "new look" but then realized she is moving slowly and another strong feeder band is developing to her SE and SSE that will slowly graze through here today....

I'm concerned about the tornado threat. The helicity values are lining up perfectly with what the models had been portraying so we may get quite a few small spin ups causing isolated damage
the storm looked a lot Bette r when it was near sun city, and the radar seems to be having interference.
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Quoting TBayEyes:
wind is seriously howling now in downtown st. pete. starting to here some debris roll out in the street, and garage door is getting cranky.

guys/gals this storm is cranking up. possible hurricane before landfall?
it's so interesting how different the weather can be as you go a only a few miles inland. I'm 12 miles inland from tarpon springs and the highest wind I've recorded is a gust of 11 lol
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Quoting DataNerd:
Pressure still falling and winds are rising. System appears to be really wrapping up tight on sat imagery. Possibly trying to do some RI here at the end, got plenty of time yet to do so with new convection firing over the center and the mid level circulation growing stronger.

Meanwhile alot of tornadic storms forming with this thing over florida, folks cannot say this enough heed these warnings even if they get you out of bed. Leave a radio or computer on battery power turned on for updates and do not take this lightly!

Meanwhile on sat:

Link

Just look at that beautiful hook and southwestern inflow band!


EF-0 Tornadoes, unless you live in a tent or are walking outside, much ado about nothing.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 445 AM EDT

* AT 419 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
WEST BROWARD RECREATION AREA ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEST BROWARD RECREATION AREA ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2631 8085 2630 8059 2600 8071 2600 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 183DEG 20KT 2605 8073

$$
KONARIK
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687. skook
according to wtsp rural highway 70 in myakka city is closed due to damage from this storm heading towards Tampa.
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wind is seriously howling now in downtown st. pete. starting to here some debris roll out in the street, and garage door is getting cranky.

guys/gals this storm is cranking up. possible hurricane before landfall?
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Quoting DataNerd:
Pressure still falling and winds are rising. System appears to be really wrapping up tight on sat imagery. Possibly trying to do some RI here at the end, got plenty of time yet to do so with new convection firing over the center and the mid level circulation growing stronger.

Meanwhile alot of tornadic storms forming with this thing over florida, folks cannot say this enough heed these warnings even if they get you out of bed. Leave a radio or computer on battery power turned on for updates and do not take this lightly!

Meanwhile on sat:

Link

Just look at that beautiful hook and southwestern inflow band!

she needs to slow down a bit before she wraps in that nice tail of dry air and cuts off the only remaining moist quadrant
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I'm wondering if she will eventually start to entrain some of the subsidence to her west. Happens sometimes with systems that spin up quickly.
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Quoting skook:
the Hillsborough storm with tge rotation is about 15 minutes from downtown Tampa.
that cell seems to be redeveloping. I am in Odessa and set an alarm for now since I figured the first heavier squall would be coming through at this time...

At first when I saw satellite I was expecting this to be over quickly given the Andrea's "new look" but then realized she is moving slowly and another strong feeder band is developing to her SE and SSE that will slowly graze through here today....

I'm concerned about the tornado threat. The helicity values are lining up perfectly with what the models had been portraying so we may get quite a few small spin ups causing isolated damage
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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