Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Day 2
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THE CMC IS DEVELOPING SOMETHING IN THE GULF AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
Good morning all

I have a PWS up and running and I appear to be in the target zone for landfall please feel free to use any data you want and hopefully it will not be to bad
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wrapping up tighter could it become a brief cane just before landfall

looks like coc has moved right under the convection on IR be good to get the first visble of the day soon

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778. Skyepony (Mod)
Andrea's CI just went up to 2.7
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
Morning all! I see Andrea is a wee bit stronger than we all were anticipating.
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good to see ya largo
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I'm worried about this !



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Severe weather for Florida today-SPC

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WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...LEON...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...IRWIN...
COOK...BERRIEN...THOMAS...BROOKS...LOWNDES AND LANIER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
MADISON...INLAND TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...INLAND DIXIE...COASTAL
FRANKLIN...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA...COASTAL TAYLOR
AND COASTAL DIXIE.
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Euro-dont be suprise if we are looking at a hurricane



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770. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
A little rainy down South but the potential to ruin a lot of people's weekend in the East. These little storms have a way of getting bolder going up north on the coast.
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CMC..still has this sitting over the western part of florida till friday..




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I sure hope this track near Tampa does not verify............
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few more hrs and we will have our first landfalling storm of the 2013 season on fla

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Scott..good call on this last night..I believe one blogger told you to even "put down the crack" when you mentioned Andrea would strengthen over night..

Keep up the good work!! The naysayers on here need to combine their pennies together and hit up a crow buffet and stay there for a while..

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BY me here on the coast,just steady rain,sometimes a downpour,not too bad so far,my counties drought is over lol...just some gusts of wind, nothing bad...probably got over an inch of rain, maybe a lil more..but this goes on all day long, we'll see what happens..stay safe folks, watch the driving..be careful.
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dangerous day for traveling in florida
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761. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting islander101010:
debbie did not have such large feeder bands that i can remember

I don't think she did either. Those cells coming in from the ocean awoke me. Was pretty heavy rain, wind was gusting to 20mph.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
Looks like Andrea is forming an eye on radar.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
Quoting eyetoothtom1:
When do you think it will be safe to travel I-10 Pensacola to Jacksonville, then south to Daytona Beach.? Had planned to depart about 10 am central.
any time after 3 pm this afternoon as it lifts north the bands should lift out to just near the off shore areas along the east coasts the heaviest weather expected is from now till just after noon
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When do you think it will be safe to travel I-10 Pensacola to Jacksonville, then south to Daytona Beach.? Had planned to depart about 10 am central.
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debbie did not have such large feeder bands that i can remember
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heard you were a little vulgar a couple of days ago is this true
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winds may gust to hurricane force on approach heavy tropical rains with some flooding likely
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Did CMC nailed the intensity for the most part? I remember that we were portraying it as overaggressive but look now.
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wet day down there be onshore in about 4 to 5 hrs from now

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a href=" photo WUNIDS_map-7_zpsc9cbdbbd.gif" target="_blank">

Good morning. The lights went out briefly a little after 5am in Madeira Beach but are back on. A pretty good line of storms looks to be headed in.
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I told you so:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
For those who care, I made a new blog entry on Andrea.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

* AT 538 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHARK
VALLEY OBS TOWER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...
FORTYMILE BEND...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
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746. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after the events on Friday of last week and what unfolded afterwards of deaths I needed a little break

besides that been busy with work as well

got lots done this week

finish up with a meeting with management at 9 am with a walk thur of the building and final decsions on the last of the 32 building cam installation got 16 getting 16 more for 360 degree coverage no way in or out without a cam catching ya


We all need a break at times .. understand, have done it myself several times ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31276
after the events on Friday of last week and what unfolded afterwards of deaths I needed a little break

besides that been busy with work as well

got lots done this week

finish up with a meeting with management at 9 am with a walk thur of the building and final decsions on the last of the 32 building cam installation got 16 getting 16 more for 360 degree coverage no way in or out without a cam catching ya
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Good Morning Everyone....
Headed for a day of rain here, not much in the way of wind. Curious if Andrea intensifies any more before landfall. This remains to be seen.
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Good morning all. Have had nice rain off and on all night, but now it is POURING in Port St. Lucie. Great, just in time for me to go to work! Hope I can get home later today and the roads are not seriously flooded. You all please stay safe today. Just can't believe we already have our first tropical system! Might just be a long, busy season. Stocking up on Fresca and cheetos!
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This gal is amazing!! two days ago just a bunch of unorganized clouds and now a solid tropical storm growing on the edge of a desert in the sky??? This is why we watch!!
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740. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hey Keeper .. where ya been ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31276
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT

* AT 529 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF INDIAN LAKE ESTATES...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
LAKE KISSIMMEE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
INDIAN LAKE ESTATES.
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Quoting ryang:
Really impressed by Andrea right now. Just shows you can never discount a system in the GOM.


Not sure about "really" impressed...still a lot of dry air wedged in there, but she does get a B for effort. Just has really bad conditions to work with.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15831
Morning all.

I see Andrea is trying her best to take a little advantage of diurnal conditions...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15831
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll tell you that if there's ever a major hurricane heading your way. :P

I went right to bed when Floyd was headed my way. Well, after I moved a bit further inland.
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735. ryang
Really impressed by Andrea right now. Just shows you can never discount a system in the GOM.
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Quoting Birthmark:

When one gets old it becomes pretty easy to go to bed no matter what kind of tropical system is out there. Trust me. :^)

I just got a solid three hours of sleep myself.


I'll tell you that if there's ever a major hurricane heading your way. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
It appears we are going to see a very nasty squall line approaching the west coast of Florida later associated with Andrea. Based on surface obs winds will veer onshore with this so we will likely see the strongest winds with this band and possibly additional tornadoes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.