Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Andrea in its formative stages, taken at 12:20 pm EDT Wednesday, June 5, 2013, five hours before it was named. Image credit: NASA.

Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lostinohio:
I would love to be sitting on St. Joe's Penisula state park in a condo........with a batch of fresh Oysters from Papa Joe's ready to crack open....watching the waves............


Went there on vaca once, it was great... But I can't think if anything better than that^^^^
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Andrea the Shrimp-like Tropical Storm.




And it's going to attract all the fishies this year into the coast!

It makes sense
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1231. Speeky
T.S. Andrea is the Atlantic's 1500th tropical storm since record keeping began in 1851
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Tornado Warning for Pinellas County, Largo included in the warning. Cell currently over Gulfport and St. Pete Beach.
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Quoting sporteguy03:

That is unusual in a tropical system .hmm

When strengthening TC's generate lots of lightning...
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I would love to be sitting on St. Joe's Penisula state park in a condo........with a batch of fresh Oysters from Papa Joe's ready to crack open....watching the waves............
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Andrea the Shrimp-like Tropical Storm.

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1226. gator23
Quoting Civicane49:


Beryl from last year was an example:



Dont forget Tropical Storm Fay who developed an eye OVER LAND!
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Thanks guys for the clarification.
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Damage in the Acreage...also from WPTV.





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1223. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1222. MahFL
Quoting weatherh98:


Maybe the beginnings of one in the southern part of that opening but the giant hole is not an eye


I never said it was a hurricane eye. All I said was eye eye.
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Several homes sustained minor damage at #SunCityCenter after tornado. @TB_Times
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1220. LargoFl
Quoting DudeTheMath:

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
Quoting DudeTheMath:

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
we must remember the rain bands stretch all the way down to the yucatan in mexico..an all day rain event for us,maybe off and on till the storm comes ashore.
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Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?
Yes we have had category 5 hurricanes without any HH in them.
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1218. MahFL
Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes the Dvorak technique can be used using satellite pictures. In Andrea's case the center is within range of land based radar, so velocities can be measured.
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The HH is running out of time.She should be making landfall in a few hours..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just because an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.


Beryl from last year was an example:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just because an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.


Baroclinity effect is taking her!!!
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Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes but the ADT numbers are like, really low so I doubt that would happen

And plus, there will be a recon in before landfall
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Quoting Jwd41190:
Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?


Yes they can, like right now it has a very impressive signature on radar and high wave heights indicative of hurricane levels of strength, dont think they will classify it without a Recon though, which is understandable but annoying.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.


That is unusual in a tropical system .hmm
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1211. LargoFl
oh man when that band comes ashore might turn bad here..hope no tornado's
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


When that comes ashore, the skies will be bright.


I'm assuming there is Tropical Storm force winds In that line aswell
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm wondering if Tampa is going to be done with rain for now after this current feeder band comes by. I guess it all depends on how that newly formed eyewall generates convection and how close it gets to us. If it sticks to its forecast track than we may be stuck in the dry slot for the rest of the day.... What do you other tampans think?

That's what I thought when I saw the radar image: it sure looks like the dry air behind this band is our future. However, I'm betting on rain until lunchtime, anyway, given the NE motion of the center.
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Looks like she wants to make one more run at getting stronger if she keeps moving east northeast and getting that center under the convection.

I have been living in the Charleston area for the past 10 months or so, i have never had the experience of a tropical storm or hurricane. I have not even seen a tornado in my lifetime. Perhaps I can see a little action... just a little anyway.
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Quoting MahFL:
Eye eye.....



Maybe the beginnings of one in the southern part of that opening but the giant hole is not an eye
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Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90*) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107*)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and falling


This will be the Buoy to watch, just NE of Andrea.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Not quEYEte an eye yet, still wrapping. It looks like it's getting there though.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
will it be a Hurricane?


Already is by every indication, we just dont have a recon flight in there to give an official measurement.
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Quoting Chicklit:
fascinating storm but got to get some stuff done.
thanks for posting everyone!


Hey Chicklit, what a way of start the 2013 hurricane season!!!
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Can the NHC classified it as a Hurricane without solid proof from a recon?
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Just because it has an eye doesn't mean it's a hurricane, strengthening tropical storms naturally develop more hurricane-like structures.
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1200. LargoFl
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
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Quoting belizeit:
Read back to comment 1182 pleaseeeeee


Yeah that's what I did, my bad.

I think Andrea has an Eye..
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will it be a Hurricane?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.



When that comes ashore, the skies will be bright.
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Thank you Civicane.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
There's no way this isn't a Hurricane right now. Everything i see indicates that it is but we dont have a recon in there to officially classify it. Which annoys me greatly.
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Quoting Stoopid1:
Someone (think it was GTCoolie) mentioned Cedar Key as a landfall spot. That looks like a good estimate right now.

Not much on predicting and forecasting like I was before, more of just a lurk and learn type now. Just wanted to say I appreciate the community here, best tropical info bar none and I've learned a lot since joining.


I too find my self "lurking" more since I joined.
But I will say this, if youi want up to the min information this is the place to be....

Taco :o)
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Lots of Lightning with the band offshore.

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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
When is Recon going in?
Read back to comment 1182 pleaseeeeee
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1190. MahFL
Eye eye.....

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Debby this is not
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Probably going to be one of our best radar views today.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Significant damage from earlier possible tornado in the Loxahatchee area of Palm Beach Co., FL via @WPTV


Looks like EF-1 damage.
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Someone (think it was GTCoolie) mentioned Cedar Key as a landfall spot. That looks like a good estimate right now.

Not much on predicting and forecasting like I was before, more of just a lurk and learn type now. Just wanted to say I appreciate the community here, best tropical info bar none and I've learned a lot since joining.
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When is Recon going in?
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Significant damage from earlier possible tornado in the Loxahatchee area of Palm Beach Co., FL via @WPTV
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Morning all! I see things have changed 'a bit' since last night ;) Hope everyone in Florida is staying safe! Keeping an eye on the track to see how it will affect us in the Charleston metro area tonight/tomorrow...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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