Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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1181. tropicfreak
2:00 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Quoting Ricki13th:


Naw youngster in experience. If he stick with us he can learn a lot.


I used to be that way to an extent when I joined here way back when, I was 10-11 years old (too young now that I think about it!) back in 2006. Over the years, I was taught to just watch the thread, and not use so much of my breath.

That's the best way to learn on here. Now I am 17, 7 years later, and have garnered some respect as well.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1180. Skyepony (Mod)
11:24 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
ANDREA Click pic for loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
1179. CosmicEvents
11:20 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.
That's comparing apples to oranges statistically. They gave Ophelia a 3% chance of Cat4. Here, they're giving Andrea a 5% chance of Cat1, and less than 1% chance of cat3 or more.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5640
1178. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Those not familiar with this year's list:

- Andrea (F)
- Barry (M)
- Chantal (F)
- Dorian (M)
- Erin (F)
- Fernand (M)
- Gabrielle (F)
- Humberto (M)
- Ingrid (F)
- Jerry (M)
- Karen (F)
- Lorenzo (M)
- Melissa (F)
- Nestor (M)
- Olga (F)
- Pablo (M)
- Rebekah (F)
- Sebastian (M)
- Tanya (F)
- Van (M)
- Wendy (F)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1177. AussieStorm
11:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!

You, where you been, this place is a mess. Get to work and clean it up. LOL

How are ya Press. Long time no see.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
1176. flcanes
11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS is the only one at this time showing it cause trouble down the road..and if the long range pattern TWA13 posted comes true (a long ways out) we might have to start looking for tropical development in the caribbean at around 9 days.Who knows maybe Andrea won't be the last storm we track in June.

What does the GFS say
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1175. weathermanwannabe
11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
In the bigger scheme of things, and looking at how well the ITCZ is firing on the E-Pac, I am thinking what we will see out next named storm, on the E-Pac side, once Adrea gets out of the way in a few days.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9317
1174. StormJunkie
11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting presslord:


Well!!! You are certainly no fun...


We can't all be dreamers now can we?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1173. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1172. washingtonian115
11:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.
GFS is the only one at this time showing it cause trouble down the road..and if the long range pattern TWA13 posted comes true (a long ways out) we might have to start looking for tropical development in the caribbean at around 9 days.Who knows maybe Andrea won't be the last storm we track in June.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
1171. Skyepony (Mod)
11:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Lost the deep orange convection with the afternoon heat..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
1170. flcanes
11:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.

And with the carribean slowly warming, the only thing that can stop it is the shear thats bombarding Andrea right now
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1169. K8eCane
11:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting tafidog:
I really appreciate reading your excellent articles concerning various weather events throughout the year. But, please "has gotten" ??
The first sentence in 6/5/2013 article.
Cliff Dye



Thats sorta rude. Theres a sentence for ya.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
1168. presslord
11:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...


Well!!! You are certainly no fun...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1167. flcanes
11:13 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...

Well, not if you consider this
Link
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1166. centex
11:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Best radar I could find.

Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3292
1165. WeatherNerdPR
11:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting flcanes:

That right there, might be an indication of things to come.......

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1164. flcanes
11:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am sure that that is what the models are currently indicating; if that is the case, faster is certainly better in terms of less flooding for parts of the SE.

That's true, here in west palm the rain totals are beginning to add up....
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1163. StormJunkie
11:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1162. tafidog
11:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
I really appreciate reading your excellent articles concerning various weather events throughout the year. But, please "has gotten" ??
The first sentence in 6/5/2013 article.
Cliff Dye
Member Since: April 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1161. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
I know it's google maps im looking at the HH mission on...but the last center position of 1002mb was ESE by 5 miles of the original position..but they say N or NE at 3?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1160. flcanes
11:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Andrea looking good
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1159. washingtonian115
11:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!
The Doc and I.lolJ/K.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
1158. weathermanwannabe
11:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting flcanes:

I think that it might move so quickly overland, land wont kill it, just weaken it slightly


I am sure that that is what the models are currently indicating; if that is the case, faster is certainly better in terms of less flooding for parts of the SE.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9317
1157. presslord
11:10 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1156. flcanes
11:09 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's looking pretty good for the environment it's in right now and the fact that it's the freaking first week of June.

That right there, might be an indication of things to come.......
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1155. flcanes
11:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
She will also be moving pretty quickly as noted hence the current NHC cone keeping her at TS strength across/near the Southern Atlantic seabord.

Not sure that I totally agree with that scenario if She is weak at landfall and the coc stays over land. Could see her drop down to a depression downstream before making the coast again on the Atlantic side but what do I know...........Just an armchair wannabee met... :)

I think that it might move so quickly overland, land wont kill it, just weaken it slightly
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1154. WeatherNerdPR
11:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:
man Andrea is not looking too well right now i wounder if it will weakin tonight

It's looking pretty good for the environment it's in right now and the fact that it's the freaking first week of June.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1153. weatherwart
11:07 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:



Got one good downpour, storms were popping just north of where I work.


Well, we're on the wrong side of this storm. Unless it takes a U-turn, we're getting wet.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1152. weathermanwannabe
11:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
She will also be moving pretty quickly as noted hence the current NHC cone keeping her at TS strength across/near the Southern Atlantic seabord.

Not sure that I totally agree with that scenario if She is weak at landfall and the coc stays over land. Could see her drop down to a depression downstream before making the coast again on the Atlantic side but what do I know...........Just an armchair wannabee met... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9317
1151. flcanes
11:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.

You have a point there. I agree though, Andrea only has 24 hours to strengthen, and with shear and dry air from the west she wont have enough time to become one.
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1150. Tazmanian
11:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weatherbow:
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.



vary unlikey i think we have seen the peak of Andrea if it dos any thing it will likey weak in from here on out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1149. robintampabay
11:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weatherwart:


I'm not too far from you. We got some heavy rain earlier, but just drizzles for the last couple of hours. How's Tampa?



Got one good downpour, storms were popping just north of where I work.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
1148. weatherwart
11:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting mermaidlaw:
Spring Hill fl. here
Be safe everyone!


Hi neighbor! I got batteries. I'm good.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1147. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting flcanes:

Erm, yes, but nhc gives it a 5% chance of becoming one before landfall

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1146. flcanes
11:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weatherbow:
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.

Yep. NHC says 45 MPH for peak but that seems a tad too conservative
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1144. weatherwart
11:04 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:




Yes, I live in Pristine Place, got some rain, none since I got home from down in Tampa.


I'm not too far from you. We got some heavy rain earlier, but just drizzles for the last couple of hours. How's Tampa?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1143. weatherbow
11:03 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.
Member Since: May 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
1142. flcanes
11:03 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting barbamz:
NOAA To Revive Essential Weather Satellite on Thursday
By Andrew Freedman, published: June 5th, 2013 , Last Updated: June 5th, 2013

"An important weather satellite that went out of service on May 22 is expected to be brought back online Thursday, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite shut itself down after suffering from an unknown, sudden disturbance that caused it to change its orientation relative to the Earth, and engineers have worked to troubleshoot the source of the error and restart the spacecraft.

The return to service comes just as a tropical storm may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico." ...


Yeah, right in time! Good night from Germany with it's new Everglades ...


Photo: Reuters

Wow. Worst flloding in some years
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1141. barbamz
11:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
NOAA To Revive Essential Weather Satellite on Thursday
By Andrew Freedman, published: June 5th, 2013 , Last Updated: June 5th, 2013

"An important weather satellite that went out of service on May 22 is expected to be brought back online Thursday, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite shut itself down after suffering from an unknown, sudden disturbance that caused it to change its orientation relative to the Earth, and engineers have worked to troubleshoot the source of the error and restart the spacecraft.

The return to service comes just as a tropical storm may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico." ...


Yeah, right in time! Good night from Germany with it's new Everglades ...



Photo: Reuters
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6230
1140. Tazmanian
11:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
man Andrea is not looking too well right now i wounder if it will weakin tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1139. flcanes
11:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting newportrinative:
With the NHC storm path, am I correct that central FL (Orlando area) will be drier come the weekend?
We live in S FL and will be heading to Orlando Friday night for the weekend. Hoping for clear(er) skies!!!!

Thanks

Well, I believe the same high pressure that is pumping dry air into Andrea should move up into the GOM.
Regardless, It's june in florida, so bring those ponchos just in case
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1138. mermaidlaw
11:01 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Spring Hill fl. here
Be safe everyone!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8814
1137. flcanes
11:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
Even though I agree Andrea will not become a hurricane there is always a possibility that she might remember that just today many thought that it will not be name.

Erm, yes, but nhc gives it a 5% chance of becoming one before landfall
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
1136. robintampabay
11:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting weatherwart:


You must be near me in Spring Hill, Rob. Have you been getting a lot of rain?




Yes, I live in Pristine Place, got some rain, none since I got home from down in Tampa.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
1135. trey33
11:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL


Hi Taz
Hope all was well with you during the off season
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
1134. newportrinative
11:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
With the NHC storm path, am I correct that central FL (Orlando area) will be drier come the weekend?
We live in S FL and will be heading to Orlando Friday night for the weekend. Hoping for clear(er) skies!!!!

Thanks
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
1133. allancalderini
10:59 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...

Even though I agree Andrea will not become a hurricane there is always a possibility that she might remember that just today many thought that it will not be name.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
1132. Tazmanian
10:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh ok no harm no foul I just was wondering because you are usually on here when we have tropical activity, as soon as I made that post you came on, lol.




LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1131. weatherwart
10:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:
Looks like Andrea will venture my way here in Henando County,FL. Flying out of Tampa on Friday around noon.Hopefully no issues with getting out.


You must be near me in Spring Hill, Rob. Have you been getting a lot of rain?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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