Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


WE HAVE ANDREA!!
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780. VR46L
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
Quoting Klolly23:

Winds forecasted for sarasota by TWC this morning for tomorrow were 15-25mph. Since then they've updated them to 25-35mph for tomorrow. Wonder if they will increase those winds a bit in the next local forecast update as we should be in the eastern side and southeastern side as it moves it north. Possibly 30-40mph with gusts higher...any thoughts... Any warnings stretching down here if they are issued?

Since we don't know how strong it will be, exactly where it will come ashore, or the exact timeframe, they could issue watch andwarnings anywhere from Mobile to Naples. Really, it's way too early to answer questions like that.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9650
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Is the forecaster on the left monitoring Jeff Master's WunderBlog? ;)


No doubt, hes reading the comments at this minute
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Quoting Klolly23:

Winds forecasted for sarasota by TWC this morning for tomorrow were 15-25mph. Since then they've updated them to 25-35mph for tomorrow. Wonder if they will increase those winds a bit in the next local forecast update as we should be in the eastern side and southeastern side as it moves it north. Possibly 30-40mph with gusts higher...any thoughts... Any warnings stretching down here if they are issued?

Depends on Wind Radius... Winds gusts over much of Florida will be upwards of 25-35 Mph or even 40+ Gusts. Winds dont really matter with this system, its so lopsided, it wont be capable of intensifying much more before landfall... The main threat is Torrential, Flooding rains.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 709
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Is the forecaster on the left monitoring Jeff Master's WunderBlog? ;)


If they're not they're doing it wrong lol.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You looking at the latest hi-res vis loops before the Sun goes down?


Yeah. The light angle in the morn and the evening gives a good 3D look at the surface before the bright band slides by going to infra.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.



Is the forecaster on the left monitoring Jeff Master's WunderBlog? ;)
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Quoting RevInFL:


Actually, it depends on the track. Orlando has been under TS watches and warnings in the past. It has nothing to do with them being inland.


False, see here for facts. Link

We are splitting hairs and I was joking.
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Those guys represent the best in the business; they might be discusisng, in addition to the name issue, what warnings and/or watches they are going to issue if they issue a first advisory later on. If they are not ready to name the system yet, they still have to give folks some lead time/notice going into tomorrow morning.
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Quoting sar2401:

Or maybe TS watches, since the storm will not come ashore over a 250 mile wide area.
unlikely since tropical storm conditions will be felt in those areas i mentiond. the whole west coast of florida will get alot of heavy rain and strong/severe weather from naples points north
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.


Let's see...it's the Thousands Standing Around? :-) Oh, wait, those look more like weather guys.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9650
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.

Looks like they're using Levi's graphics on the monitor there. :D
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.



That is so awesome lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
wouldnt be surprised to see them wait until 8 ET so they have more data
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Quoting gator23:


No Tropical Storm Watches or warnings will ever go up for Orlando... it is inland. You mean Inland storm watched.


Actually, it depends on the track. Orlando has been under TS watches and warnings in the past. It has nothing to do with them being inland.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
All aboard for the coastal chugger

Cedar Key...Jacksonville...Savannah....Charleston... .Wilmington....Elizabeth City....Ocean City, MD.....Saltaire NY....Napatree Point, RI.....Gloucester MA....


Thrilled to have her :p
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.



I'm going to assume the "standing up" crowd are the guys pounding their shoe for naming it, but the "sitting down" crowd are the guys against it. Good see though some skepticism, meteorological science at work.
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Quoting sar2401:

If there's bad weather, there will be watches and warnings.


LOL
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Watches and Warnings will probably go from Tampa to Apalachicola

Winds forecasted for sarasota by TWC this morning for tomorrow were 15-25mph. Since then they've updated them to 25-35mph for tomorrow. Wonder if they will increase those winds a bit in the next local forecast update as we should be in the eastern side and southeastern side as it moves it north. Possibly 30-40mph with gusts higher...any thoughts... Any warnings stretching down here if they are issued?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Expect Renumber within the hour , looking at recon data its 70-80 percent closed still open to the west and northwest, max winds thus far are between 45-50 with some isolated 55+ lets wait and see , expect TS warnings for you folks in the sarasota area points north to panama city

Or maybe TS watches, since the storm will not come ashore over a 250 mile wide area.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9650
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.



They are doing the exact same thing as us...!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.



that is the question
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Certainly looks like quite a rain event for folks along the west coast of Florida. Question remains whether we will see any tornadoes out of this? NWS has mentioned the possibility in the past several discussions. They seem to be closely monitoring the situation.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13267
Quoting notanotherwrong:
will watches and warnings go up for orlando and daytona beach?


No Tropical Storm Watches or warnings will ever go up for Orlando... it is inland. You mean Inland storm watched.
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Is that outflow I see?

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
All aboard for the coastal chugger

Cedar Key...Jacksonville...Savannah....Charleston... .Wilmington....Elizabeth City....Ocean City, MD.....Saltaire NY....Napatree Point, RI.....Gloucester MA....


You forgot limited stops in Ocala and Gainesville.
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Even more westerlies on this page.
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No new data from the plane for 15 minutes now.

Might mean a VDM is being prepared for the next packet might mean they are going to do another pass.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
That dry air issue nicely mentioned below by Dell is a huge factor, independent of sheer, that will really limit intensification above a lower to mid-grade tropical storm. It keeps sucking into the circulation as the storm is getting better organized.
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I'd call that low closed now.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
Quoting TampaCat5:
Where in Florida did you find this? Thanks.


In southeast Collier County, about 45 miles west-northwest of Miami.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Tropical requires deep convection about a well defined center. Subjective determination, mine is it does not have it.


Well, the NHC has named sheared systems countless times. A good example is early-season Alberto in 2006, similar to this storm, but named when it was still farther south. The center was exposed over the Yucatan Channel at designation.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
go Florida go:



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC doesn't follow that part of the criteria very strictly...


Hmm, that explains it. I was wondering about that too, since all of the storms are on the east side of the system.
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743. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT missed the center too. Atleast got a partial..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36056
All aboard for the coastal chugger

Cedar Key...Jacksonville...Savannah....Charleston... .Wilmington....Elizabeth City....Ocean City, MD.....Saltaire NY....Napatree Point, RI.....Gloucester MA....
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
will watches and warnings go up for orlando and daytona beach?

If there's bad weather, there will be watches and warnings.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9650
Pressure at buoy 42003 at 26.044 N 85.612 W

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Where in Florida did you find this? Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
System is already spawning low-topped supercells in Florida.



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GFS does show that wage becoming a threat down the road..But I'm skeptical.
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Quoting Ricki13th:
Tampa to go under TS watch/warnings.

Really? Where did you come up with this information? The Tampa NWS makes no mention of any kind of tropical warnings.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9650



Still firing a bunch of new convection despite DMIN and the dry air. Will be interesting to see DMAX.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
734. VR46L
Just a couple of 91L images
RGB


Rainbow




RBTOP



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
733. JRRP
Quoting allancalderini:
Might be Barry later on.

mm i do not think so... the shear will kill that wave
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I wouldn't be surprised if that thing got mentioned in the next TWO. Very impressive for early June.

may be
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Its possible they make another pass before doing a VDM.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
No VDM yet but it wouldn't surprise me if we got one shortly.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.