Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Astrometeor:


There's always that 1% chance that everything will fall apart in the next hour before they can get their first advisory out.


Lol that made me laugh. It took a while to find the closed low.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Could someone post the special TWO again? I can't find it on this page. :P
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
828. JLPR2
8 special two posted, everyone, stop for a moment and breathe! XD
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



And there you have it folks! Just like that the tampa shield is gone.

Watch out folks in florida this one is going to be a nasty rainmaker.


Here is the latest Recco:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 21:05Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 24.7N 86.3W
Location: 284 miles (457 km) to the W (272°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 250 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 210° at 30 knots (From the SSW at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 22°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 200° at 20 knots (From the SSW at ~ 23.0 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 19 knots (~ 21.9mph)


Lowest pressure probably about 1004 mb even. Top winds 50 mph.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
I had a feeling when I was going to get something to eat they would name it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
South Orlando here and its coming down pretty hard. No wind to speak of.  Felt the tropical "mist", as I like to call it, earlier today so I checked on here and sure enough some development.  However the temp is not that warm like it usually is when I feel the "tropical mist".Something to keep us up tonight... Refreshing this page over and over and over lol
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It's okay, please don't post the special tropical weather outlook 100 times now!
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Decoded data from my storm page:

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Tampa will be in the cone. Its headed right for there. No Tampa Bay shields this year.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 709
Quoting Thing342:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


There's always that 1% chance that everything will fall apart in the next hour before they can get their first advisory out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 down, who knows how many to go
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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TA, who sent you that pic?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
Quoting Astrometeor:
Wait, TA, can you get another picture showing what the NHC forecasters are doing now? Back to work or opening up the first bottle of champagne to welcome in the season?


it feels like new years in here(the blog) !!
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Expect tropical storm warnings along the western coast of Florida.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
And so it begins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
810. Zappy
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052126
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

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OMG I am so excited! Now the season can begin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Special TWO:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
Wait, TA, can you get another picture showing what the NHC forecasters are doing now? Back to work or opening up the first bottle of champagne to welcome in the season?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Those guys represent the best in the business; they might be discusisng, in addition to the name issue, what warnings and/or watches they are going to issue if they issue a first advisory later on. If they are not ready to name the system yet, they still have to give folks some lead time/notice going into tomorrow morning.


Or they could just be figuring out who gets to buy the donuts.
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We have Andrea! Welcome to hurricane season, folks!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
Woohoo it's official we have Tropical Storm Andrea!!! Welcome to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting sar2401:

I just felt a chill go up my spine...or down my leg, I'm not sure whcih sensation is caused by a stormgasm.


I got a gas pain, only because it's coming this way haha. Andrea is official, June 5th for the 1st storm. Pretty quick start.
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It's official!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
1-0-0
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
WE NOW HAVE ANDREA:

AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRE, M,
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
WOOOOHOOOO!!!! renumber!! Andrea is here its official!!!
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Quoting sar2401:

I just felt a chill go up my spine...or down my leg, I'm not sure whcih sensation is caused by a stormgasm.


I feel like I just sent my daughter to college. I have been watching this blob for a while.. LOL!
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Since we don't know how strong it will be, exactly where it will come ashore, or the exact timeframe, they could issue watch andwarnings anywhere from Mobile to Naples. Really, it's way too early to answer questions like that.

True, but you can get sort of an idea of what the general impact of it... Winds of 20-40 with gusts of 50 mph, and a lot of severe storms and heavy rains...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 709
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,
Lets the game begin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


Durn it Nea my entry in the contest is sunk now! Triple minus and flag! Grrrrrr.
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1-0-0,

Strange to see Andrea on the other side of the coast this time around.
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Quoting gator23:


WE HAVE ANDREA!!

I just felt a chill go up my spine...or down my leg, I'm not sure whcih sensation is caused by a stormgasm.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9656
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRE, M,
Lol.Poor Andrea..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To name or not to name.

Sent from a friend.



Got two things to say:
First to the stand-up guys. "Don't just stand there, do something!"
Second to the sitting down guys, "Why are you sitting down, we have a potential TS here!"
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Watches and Warnings should up shortly. Now to the dreaded Cone.
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788. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


1-0-0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


We have Andrea.
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"To name" it is lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting DellOperator:


Yeah. The light angle in the morn and the evening gives a good 3D look at the surface before the bright band slides by going to infra.


Right on the money with your observation......
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Quoting RevInFL:


Actually, it depends on the track. Orlando has been under TS watches and warnings in the past. It has nothing to do with them being inland.


seems like with the CoC jogging east and this thing strengthening we will have an interesting week here huh Revin? :)
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Andrea is official.
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invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren 05-Jun-2013 21:21 1.0K
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Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,


WE HAVE ANDREA!!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.