Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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we now have tropical storm andrea
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880. HCW

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Oh my goodness, we're ahead of 2005!!1!

We were in 2012 too.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1236
Comtest: Who will be the first to post the advisory?

I'll put 5 bucks on TAWX13
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 20:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°11'N 86°38'W (25.1833N 86.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 307 miles (495 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 36kts (From the ENE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 243m (797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:69
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11063
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I can't follow the blog as is going very fast.
I know my comment I posted about 5 min. ago is already over on the other page.
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Man love the vibe on the blog. Very festive!!!
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
I have a personal goal for the blog. Can we keep the number of advisories posted to less than 5? :P
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4939
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Quoting VR46L:


I think it looks like Debby from Last year



We posted the same comment at the same time....Good for You.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9036
Recon has pressures down to 1002mbs
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Finally, after nearly 4 weeks of the GFS playing with us, we get the storm it advertised. Now, we can stop debating whether it will form. Now, it's time to debate strength, track, "will it do a *insert storm name*?", etc...

Gotta love hurricane season. :-)

That is my favorite part of this blog. :) Welcome to Hurricane Season. Got a huge smile on my face.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1236
Quoting weatherh98:
1 down, who knows how many to go


Dorian's the one I'm worried about. My wife's son. A real mixer.
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868. VR46L
Quoting fabian171017:
Oh my god, Wikipedia article still not updated!


LMAO.... I bet they are getting the post together right now!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
(Rolling eyes)...Depends on how big the event is.Because if it's not big enough they normally send the newbies out.Oh your so funny..


Snarky...
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This will be nothing new for us here on the west coast of FL. the main impacts should remain the same which is periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding. A wet tropical mess.
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Oh my goodness, we're ahead of 2005!!1!
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I will plus someone who links the advisory but not those who post the text.
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Quoting gator23:


No the storm is coming to Florida so they'll be in Texas...
(Rolling eyes)...Depends on how big the event is.Because if it's not big enough they normally send the newbies out.Oh your so funny..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16783
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Finally, after nearly 4 weeks of the GFS playing with us, we get the storm it advertised. Now, we can stop debating whether it will form. Now, it's time to debate strength, track, "will it do a *insert storm name*?", etc...

Gotta love hurricane season. :-)
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There is high shear EVERYWHERE north and east of her. No way she can hold together when passing through this, right?

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Oh my god, Wikipedia article still not updated!
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I can't follow the blog as is going very fast.
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Quoting HCW:
latest model runs for Andrea



Throw those models out the window! :D They are wayyy offf lol. Not even close XD
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
My update from south Orlando got washed away by the TWO blast lol
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854. VR46L
Quoting cg2916:
Here's something I find a little interesting.

Here's Andrea 2013:



Here's Andrea 2007:



However, here's Barry 2007:


It's amazing how similar this thing is to Barry.


I think it looks like Debby from Last year

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Next will be cone....Looks to me like the current movement of coc is moving more towards the North as opposed to where the Eastern convections is headed..........I will guess a FL Big Bend landfall but the West coast of Florida will feel the brunt of it all the way............Similar track to Debbie last year.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9036
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
LOL the blog blew up after renumber!! Looks like we were all foamin at the mouth for this to get named! I posted @ #799 and within a couple minutes went to #817! feels like I just graduated college after a bender.



You should have seen the community update page going wild!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog just took off.Any one know if Jim Cantore is in route to Florida or Mike Sidel?


No the storm is coming to Florida so they'll be in Texas...
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Quoting tropicalnewbee:


was it your crow dinner?
LOL well actually I was in the development camp to begin with, but if this thing becomes a hurricane then yes I will be having crow.
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You guys thing the TWO was bad, just wait until the official advisory gets released. We could easily see about 10 people post it! XD
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4939
Quoting notanotherwrong:
does anyone think that they will put wrnings up for the east coast of central florida as well?


No by the time it crosses Florida it will not be a TS. Expect nasty weather by tonight.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
READY GUYS?

TWC SAYS THAT THE STORM IS NOW NAMED TRPOPICAL STORM ANDREA. NHC IS SUPPOSED TO MAKE THE ANNOUCEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
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846. HCW
latest model runs for Andrea

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Here's something I find a little interesting.

Here's Andrea 2013:



Here's Andrea 2007:



However, here's Barry 2007:


It's amazing how similar this thing is to Barry.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
The blog just took off.Any one know if Jim Cantore is in route to Florida or Mike Sidel?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16783
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I had a feeling when I was going to get something to eat they would name it.


was it your crow dinner?
Member Since: October 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
The first of twenty-one names on the list.Are we going to use them all XD will see.
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Now comes the tough part: Model guidance. So far everything we have is based on pre recon data.

We will have to wait until tonight's runs to get an accurate idea of where exactly this is going.

Probably going to get stronger by then.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Could someone post the special TWO again? I can't find it on this page. :P
Woahhh, you read my mind LMAO.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can someone post another TWO? Can't seem to find it. :/
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Lol, renumber goes out, blog goes crazy.

HAPPY NEW (hurricane) YEAR EVERYONE!
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LOL the blog blew up after renumber!! Looks like we were all foamin at the mouth for this to get named! I posted @ #799 and within a couple minutes went to #817! feels like I just graduated college after a bender.
Member Since: October 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Can someone post another TWO? Can't seem to find it. :/
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
8 in a row.. I think that's the record for TWO posts.
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Quoting weatherh98:
1 down, who knows how many to go

:) Let it begin... Although we will likely be in for a quiet rest of June.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1236
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Quoting Astrometeor:


There's always that 1% chance that everything will fall apart in the next hour before they can get their first advisory out.


Lol that made me laugh. It took a while to find the closed low.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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