Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
warnings will be issued from bonita beach to cedar key,fl

Where can I find these warnings? I've looked just everywhere but no luck yet...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17336
Quoting allancalderini:
And increase the winds to 45 or 50mph.


What a nifty system. Pressures is falling as soon as she gets classify down to 1002
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Quoting Ricki13th:


That guy is a youngster isnt he.

Or just clueless, or just a troll...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1404
Quoting Ameister12:

I know this is very exciting, but are all those explanation marks really necessary?



Yes, Yes it is. We've been waiting for this since last year!There I only put one this time.LOL:)
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Quoting Ricki13th:


That guy is a youngster isnt he.
Yes I am,been studying this for 5years.
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Quoting fabian171017:
Oh my god, Wikipedia article still not updated!

We kind of can't update much with the first advisory from the National Hurricane Center not out yet.
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That's nice crow, fellowgeeks. Tasty, and tender as a mother's love! ;P

And, too, I'm really always in favor of erring on the side of caution as well. It's better to have an informed public always even if very threatening danger may not be imminent. Named or not (and naming is helpful), awareness is the key because danger still lurks with flooding, downed power lines, etc, etc. Doesn't have to be a Cat5, a Cat 1, or even a TS to take lives.

Good job, you folks, that called it! :)
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Quoting fabian171017:


Seriously?

No, they just made this up on their lunch hour to fool us.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17336
Quoting Ricki13th:
They may lower the pressures from the original 1006!
And increase the winds to 45 or 50mph.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1002mb.


214000 2510N 08632W 9807 00188 0020 +240 +230 254011 013 004 003 03

Impressive!
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

No


That guy is a youngster isnt he.
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Welcome Andrea!

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We won't stay ahead of 2005 for long..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
Hello Everyone!!

I see we got Andrea..oh the naysayers..when will you learn??
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Quoting stormchaser19:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

Well, I suppose it has to be near 100% since they've already named it. I wonder where the <100% probability would come from.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17336
looks like a bunch of our characters are looking for a hole to hide in
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1002mb.


214000 2510N 08632W 9807 00188 0020 +240 +230 254011 013 004 003 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Andrebrooks:
COULD IT BE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

No
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1404
Three days ahead of 2005...

Not bad.
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Quoting Sasha:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
NNNN


Seriously?
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
is it still heading towards tampa or did it change back to the north again?


Hold up wait till the advisory comes from the NHC
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warnings will be issued from bonita beach to cedar key,fl
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Quoting VR46L:
Just a couple of 91L images
RGB


Rainbow




RBTOP



Is it moving ENE now?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Who was the one asked for crow yesterday if this was named -- we've got it cooked to the blog favorite of "medium rare." :)


Sing a song of sixpence
A pocket full of rye

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
905. Sasha
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
NNNN
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COULD IT BE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.
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Dropping 1mb an hour for the past 4-5 hours.. impressive indeed with dry air to the west and shear on top of it!
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Quoting Ameister12:
I have a personal goal for the blog. Can we keep the number of advisories posted to less than 5!? XD


How is that a personal goal?

There is no way that is going to happen, there will be 6 postings in the seconds after every announcement. You know that the number of repeat postings will never go down as long as this place has this thing with hurricanes.
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They may lower the pressures from the original 1006!
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Full vortex data message released
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 20:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°11'N 86°38'W (25.1833N 86.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 307 miles (495 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 36kts (From the ENE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 243m (797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:69
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z


MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting hericane96:
And so it begins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I know this is very exciting, but are all those explanation marks really necessary?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Happy tracking guys :) those in FLA stay safe!
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Quoting HCW:
Crow taste great :)

Don`t be sad my friend they are others that are going to eat crow.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Pop out the champagne. Hurricane Season is BACK!
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Downtown St. Pete. We've been under this hazy sky the last couple days now. Only slight drizzle, extremely high humidity. No wind.

I am guessing it's going to eventually rain?
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Probably going to be stronger by the 10 pm advisory.

Waiting till the sun goes down to see if we get more convection.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting mikatnight:


Dorian's the one I'm worried about. My wife's son. A real mixer.


Will need some pics of Dorian's clouds when the time comes. Will they be gray?
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Quoting Ricki13th:
This year is going to be epic. The blog exploding over a weak shear cyclone. ;)

Not really for a weak sheared cyclone, the blog is exploding over the first named storm of the season...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1404
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Recon has pressures down to 1002mbs
Impressive stuff.


213530 2517N 08645W 9806 00194 0026 +235 +213 037013 014 002 000 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Who was the one asked for crow yesterday if this was named -- we've got it cooked to the blog favorite of "medium rare." :)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Recon is still up, pressure down to 1002.
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This year is going to be epic. The blog exploding over a weak shear cyclone. ;)
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And so it begins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Recon has pressures down to 1002mbs

1002.6 and theyre even near the exact center fix yet! :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1404
we now have tropical storm andrea
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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