Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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The wave in the CATL is feeding in a lot of energy from the ITCZ. Very impressive for this time of year. The African Monsoon is very active this year. as Im seeing several more wave getting ready to exit onto the Atlantic taking out some of the SAL dry air.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
Just got back from the store. Bought some AA batteries. I'm all set. Bring it on Andrea.
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I'll stick with the lower end and say 50mph max.
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So far there is good agreement in the blog that Andrea will peak at 50-60mph.
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1027. JLPR2
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yeah. But think about it... A Category 1 Hurricane. Andrea would need to have a closed eyewall, and do so in 24 hours... I agree crazier things have happened, but its sheared, lopsided, and only has a limited time. Highly Unlikely ;)


Almost impossible, yet not impossible. Ah, meteorology and uncertainty go together. XD
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Quoting allancalderini:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.

These types of storms typically cap off at 60 Mph, but that intensity isnt too far from reachable.
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Quoting allancalderini:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.


I think Andrea should peak at least 50 mph or 60 mph.
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Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


a little humor at the NHC I see...
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1023. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Im thinking 50 to 60 mph.

Wait. The highest winds found at the surface were 25 knots. A forecast of 40 knots with gusts to 50 seems more than generous. Are people getting all excited about flight level winds or what?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14485
Getting ready for the first named system of the season here on the west coast of Florida. I'm expecting probably 5 to 6 inches of rain and a tornado threat and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph with stronger gusts in deep convective cores.

Although if a strong bands set up due to coastal convergence, pockets of 10 could occur in spots near the coast along with stronger winds.

Basically, this will be like Debby but widespread amounts will likely not be 10 to 15 inches because Debby stalled and barely moved as it impacted Florida. Andrea will be moving along.


Despite this, again, coastal convergence could setup repetitive banding on the west coast of Florida leading to areas of much heavier rain and locally severe weather like with Debby.

The Tampa Bay area tends to be a spot where coastal convergence sets up strongly with approaching gulf systems because it sticks out so the onshore flow tends to converge with easterly winds off land areas.


I live only a few miles from the Pinellas beaches, so if anyone from around here is interested, I'll be headed out there tomorrow after work! :)



Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.
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Quoting DRaficionado:


My thoughts too.
Same here.
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Quoting sar2401:

Actually, the BAMM has been by far the best with path up to now.

Im not talking about track. Im talking about the development of Andrea. The GFS sniffed this pattern out, and showed a developing system... It got it wrong for awhile, but it eventually got it. :)
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In other news tension on the blog is reaching record new heights for this early in the season. /s

Seems like we have our first tropical system. I am not expecting it to get past 50knts. Rain should be limited to the east side of the system as dry air is inhibiting any thunderstorm activity and should for a good while. The storm should make landfall somewhere near Cedar Key give or take a 100 miles. Then go up the east coast. This should not be too significant as the rain most likely be over the water. Of course this could all change rapidly and if Andrea is able to pull convection on the west side impacts could be a good bit more severe via flooding.
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Shows to be a Trop Stm during the whole path???
Member Since: April 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
Quoting Civicane49:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.
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Yep its offical.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Never say never when it comes to meteorology, crazier things have happened. The correct answer would be that it is unlikely. Always leave it open for the possibility.

Yeah. But think about it... A Category 1 Hurricane. Andrea would need to have a closed eyewall, and do so in 24 hours... I agree crazier things have happened, but its sheared, lopsided, and only has a limited time. Highly Unlikely ;)
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The CMC deserve some love to it perform mostly consistently as well
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
You guys??? Cantore called this 4 hours ago, but NO ONE ran with it... SAD!!!!
Member Since: April 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
Quoting SLU:


The wave has continued to develop today and deserves recognition. I agree.


My thoughts too.
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1011. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Keep in mind that this was the model that was forecasting a storm within 60 hours on Sunday... It did a banged up job, I'll give credit to the GFS. It sniffed out the situation, eventually got it right...

Actually, the BAMM has been by far the best with path up to now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14485
1010. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
998. AztecCe 10:04 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
So how's this thing going to affect us in NC?


TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
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1009. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2510'N 8634'W (25.1667N 86.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 303 miles (488 km) to the W (278) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (305) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35 at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 244m (801ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24C (75F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:66
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z
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1008. beell
Inspection of the extrapolated surface pressures from recon might indicate they did not initially find the lowest pressure. Pressure field seems to be lower to the NE of the initial fix.

Could still be a bit of an oblong surface low-slanted SW to NE.

ADDED: But it does seemed to have dropped a mb or 3.
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Quoting AztecCe:
So how's this thing going to affect us in NC?


The projected track has it scraping its way up the entire east coast, but for affects, rain and winds about 35-45 mph, locally higher in t-storms.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10231
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1005. JLPR2
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No


Never say never when it comes to meteorology, crazier things have happened. The correct answer would be that it is unlikely. Always leave it open for the possibility.
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Quoting Ameister12:
NHC is forecasting Andrea to peak at 45mph. I think it may get a little stronger than that. 50mph, 60 at most.

Im thinking 50 to 60 mph.
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1003. sar2401
Quoting DataNerd:
Watch out florida TS warnings up already. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE
RIVER


Tampa certainly covered every square mile of their warning area with that warning.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14485
Quoting DataNerd:
This thing is going to be a nightmare mess for the eastcoast. Going right through places effected by sandy. Fun.


It's just a little rain lol
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Quoting ncstorm:


THE only model..how bout give it up for it..yall gone learn..


Keep in mind that this was the model that was forecasting a storm within 60 hours on Sunday... It did a banged up job, I'll give credit to the GFS. It sniffed out the situation, eventually got it right...
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NHC is forecasting Andrea to peak at 45mph. I think it may get a little stronger than that. 50mph, 60 at most.
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RI flag on.

Expectation no more than a TS:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052203
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
So how's this thing going to affect us in NC?
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Me and Revin are just south of the trop. watch on the east coast but my question is does anyone think this is going to go further south and east than the current track? It seems with the CoC jogging east the way it did would put landfall just a little further south than the current center of the cone.
I know we are still in the southernmost part of the cone which is why I am asking.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
No more red circle.



I missed that OVERsized TS icon.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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994. xcool
lmaoo ncstorm
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Quoting xcool:
CMC the only model show 1000 mb


THE only model..how bout give it up for it..yall gone learn..

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I guess the NHC needs more data, I find it funny for the forecast to go to 45 then flatten out for 120 hours.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10231
989. HCW
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No more red circle.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Now we just have to wait for the pinhole eye.


and RI
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984. xcool
CMC the only model show 1000 mb
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Quoting sar2401:

Great, here come 10 copies of the same map. Can you guys please have some mercy on those of us with less than a T3 connection?


Lol Your are lucky it didnt work for me
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The cone of Doom is back..


very narrow cone it is, too!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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