Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.


Who does the season summary maps?
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Let the games begin!

(click to enlarge)

What kind of Software/program do you use for your graphics?
Been asking around the blog trying access if and what I want to get as a graphics program.
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:




I Think a landfall near Tampa is plausible if it continues to deepen.


Exactly what Ive been saying! Probably as a 50mph
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Try not to focus on the center of the cone, by the time the center reaches the coast the worst will already be inland. Tomorrow night-Friday morning will be the worst of it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Will the wave be mentioned at the 8 PM EDT TWO? IMO I think at least it deserves a 10%.



Given the model situation with it possibly.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Jedkins01:
Getting ready for the first named system of the season here on the west coast of Florida. I'm expecting probably 5 to 6 inches of rain and a tornado threat and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph with stronger gusts in deep convective cores.

Although if a strong bands set up due to coastal convergence, pockets of 10 could occur in spots near the coast along with stronger winds.

Basically, this will be like Debby but widespread amounts will likely not be 10 to 15 inches because Debby stalled and barely moved as it impacted Florida. Andrea will be moving along.


Despite this, again, coastal convergence could setup repetitive banding on the west coast of Florida leading to areas of much heavier rain and locally severe weather like with Debby.

The Tampa Bay area tends to be a spot where coastal convergence sets up strongly with approaching gulf systems because it sticks out so the onshore flow tends to converge with easterly winds off land areas.


I live only a few miles from the Pinellas beaches, so if anyone from around here is interested, I'll be headed out there tomorrow after work! :)



Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.


Also, Andrea is going to accelerate over the next 24-48 hrs as opposed to other early season storms. This system is acting a little more like a late season storm. In fact, although we are under a TS Watch here in Charleston, we are expecting very minimal impacts, especially if the track shifts a little further east. Andrea is a very "east loaded" system and based on the speed, it will be out of here by late Friday and very little impact, if any, for the northeast and areas that were impacted by Sandy.
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1073. beell
Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.


Which plot was that?
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Quoting JNTenne:
Why settle for standard boring SST maps when you can have a GEOSTROPHIC VELOCITY WITH DYNAMIC SSH maps!?






Because I didn't know I could get those. Ty for showing me that.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Will the wave be mentioned at the 8 PM EDT TWO? IMO I think at least it deserves a 10%.
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My NOAA weather radio just went off. As if I didn't know.
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Quoting Ricki13th:


Hurricane center agreeing on the BAMM model since its been outperform the others. However, the cone will get readjustments.




I Think a landfall near Tampa is plausible if it continues to deepen.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Well, nobody could find anything to back you up on that claim that Cantore said that. He hadn't tweeted at that time for over 20 hours and I don't think he was even at work today...



Considering he had literally no scientific evidence to go on actually he looks like a jackass.


And is. Circulation only closed in the last 3 hours or so. Had, for whatever reason, this not happened he would simply be a public jackass instead of a closet jackass.

But its not the first time the sensationalism of television has dominated. Wait until the first major hurricane they will exploit the crap out of people.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1067. barbamz



Congratulation to the first born child, refering to the "list of unborn innocence" here:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/hurricanes/2013/
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1066. ncstorm
updated WPC precip map..sure do miss Allan's page for those extra maps..I might go ahead and pay for the subscription..

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She is not the best TS we have seen but all of the convection is displaced (typical of a sheered system) towards the Florida Peninsula, like Debby....Gonna be big flood issue for low lying areas with poor drainage. Folks needs to start thinking about getting/making sandbags today or tomorrow am at the latest if you experienced these issues from Debby.
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1064. JNTenne
Why settle for standard boring SST maps when you can have a GEOSTROPHIC VELOCITY WITH DYNAMIC SSH maps!?



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.


Is it this article for Wiki

Link
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Let the games begin!

(click to enlarge)
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Please

A link or refresher on what diurnal maximum and minimum do again.
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1059. HCW
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1058. ncstorm
Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.


the GFS got the pattern recognition right but even I gave up on formation..I just stuck with the CMC and it did excellent in my opinion..now remember the CMC did have a hurricane with this system..never know..
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If we see Andrea fire some convection during DMAX on the west side things could get interesting. I do not see it happening though with the air being so dry and shear not helping either. Seems to be the key for Andrea to get stronger though.
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.



Hurricane center agreeing on the BAMM model since its been outperform the others. However, the cone will get readjustments.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active.


Did you do something else and find 200 new comments waiting for you TA upon your return?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon just found a 48mph reading. It's not listed as contaminated and rain rates were low but it doesn't match up that well with flight level winds so I don't know.

Sar2401. Point made.
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.



Looks like the tropical watch on my side will extend a little further south than flagler if NHC shifts the cone to reflect the models.
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Quoting Jedkins01:

Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.


Jedkins, I am trying to figure out the timeframe and it looks to me like it will be passing our way during the afternoon commute tomorrow. Am I reading this wrong? I really don't want to drive 40 miles home in a tropical storm!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active.


Nice icon. Nice tribute to Tim and his team.
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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
You guys??? Cantore called this 4 hours ago, but NO ONE ran with it... SAD!!!!


Well, nobody could find anything to back you up on that claim that Cantore said that. He hadn't tweeted at that time for over 20 hours and I don't think he was even at work today...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
1049. sar2401
Quoting lurkersince2008:

Hello every one. How concrete is the current track. Because I was planning to go to gulf breeze Florida this weekend tracking from gulf coast ms.

About as firm as wet concrete poured with no forms. :-) Are you actually planning on chasing this thing? I hope you get some good videos of downed tree limbs and backed up culverts.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17016
Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...
I think they're just trying to make sure people use the intended female pronunciation instead of one of the name's variants, such as AHN-DRAY'-UH or AHN'-DREE-UH or or ANN'-DREE, or AHN'-DREE (the last rhymes with "laundry").
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Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.

Im talking of the forecasts its made over the past month... *Facepalm* Just forget it.
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1046. bappit
Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

Clean out the cat box.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I think she will peak before landfall, unlike a few southern Fl. storms that actually did the opposite!
Fay was a weird one. I doubt we will see anything quite like her again...or at least for a while.
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Andrea pressure has only lower since it was first Renumbered.
I definately see a 50mph storm. I needs to get more convection around the center to go to the next level 60mph.
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Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.
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D-Max should be interesting.
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Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...


No, someone probably saw TWC mis-pronouncing it over and over and over again. Like I did. I have a friend with the name, and I can confirm the NHC way is how you say it.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.

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1038. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Im not talking about track. Im talking about the development of Andrea. The GFS sniffed this pattern out, and showed a developing system... It got it wrong for awhile, but it eventually got it. :)

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17016
I think she will peak before landfall, unlike a few southern Fl. storms that actually did the opposite!
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Hello every one. How concrete is the current track. Because I was planning to go to gulf breeze Florida this weekend tracking from gulf coast ms.
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Quoting Ricki13th:
The CMC deserve some love to it perform mostly consistently as well


Wonder if they did some tweaking on the program. Maybe CMC will elevate it's status among the super models.
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Recon just found a 48mph reading. It's not listed as contaminated and rain rates were low but it doesn't match up that well with flight level winds so I don't know.
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Quoting sar2401:

Wait. The highest winds found at the surface were 25 knots. A forecast of 40 knots with gusts to 50 seems more than generous. Are people getting all excited about flight level winds or what?

No... Im watching recon right now... 50 mph is definitely reachable by this storm, dont understand why youre putting this away as it cant do any better.
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The wave in the CATL is feeding in a lot of energy from the ITCZ. Very impressive for this time of year. The African Monsoon is very active this year. as Im seeing several more wave getting ready to exit onto the Atlantic taking out some of the SAL dry air.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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