Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting allancalderini:
A weak ts is a ts nontheless we might get td 1 or ts Andrea in the next couple of hours will be interesting to watch.Let see who gets the crow the ones who are saying it will develop or the ones who say it will not. next couple of hours will be crucial.

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Um.. well



I do not watch american television anymore.

Why? Because its cancer. Especially american media. Its not "news" it hasn't been "news" for ten years now. Its crap written by the equivalent of masochistic 5 year olds.

If it was up to me I'd throw some of these people in jail for making up crap and scaring people for no reason, sadly that choice is not mine to make.
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Quoting sar2401:

Really? That's a fact? My facts show that the Caymans have been affected by (not a direct hit even, just affected by) 65 hurricanes or tropical storms since 1900. There have been about 1400 ATL hurricanes or tropical storms in the same time period. The Caymans haven't been hit since 2008. The Caymans didn't have one hurricane from 1955 to 1969.

Certainly the Caymans get affected by tropical storms frequently enough but so do most of the other islands in the Gulf and Caribbean. There's nothing special or unusual about the number of storms to affect the Caymans I can find.
Can I get a link to your findings if you don't mind sar?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Torito:
LMFAO i almost freaked when i saw this on the page, until i saw the date. I searched "tropical storm andrea" on google to see this news headline everyone claims exists, and this came up...

Link


Well then, somebody forgot to drink their morning coffee.

Edit: 2007.

Edit2: Can you guys please stop posting misleading info unless sarcasm is clearly marked on the post? Sarcasm is very different to tell by on the interwebs.
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Quoting allancalderini:
A weak ts is a ts nontheless we might get td 1 or ts Andrea in the next couple of hours will be interesting to watch.Let see who gets the crow the ones who are saying it will develop or the ones who say it will not. next couple of hours will be crucial.


Well let's hope it doesn't turn out to be like Humberto.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
That's 2007 Andrea...


I know, did you even read the comment other than the link? xD
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By the way, anyone know what this is? just throwing it out here..

Link
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Quoting Torito:
LMFAO i almost freaked when i saw this on the page, until i saw the date. I searched "tropical storm andrea" on google to see this news headline everyone claims exists, and this came up...

Link
That's 2007 Andrea...
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LMFAO i almost freaked when i saw this on the page, until i saw the date. I searched "tropical storm andrea" on google to see this news headline everyone claims exists, and this came up...

Link
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I'm out until tomorrow. Work until midnight.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I agreed
(btw you do know that there is a reason why people which sometimes include me say it could go Cayman well its because alot if not most storms do come to Cayman and affect it and that is a statistical fact)

Really? That's a fact? My facts show that the Caymans have been affected by (not a direct hit even, just affected by) 65 hurricanes or tropical storms since 1900. There have been about 1400 ATL hurricanes or tropical storms in the same time period. The Caymans haven't been hit since 2008. The Caymans didn't have one hurricane from 1955 to 1969.

Certainly the Caymans get affected by tropical storms frequently enough but so do most of the other islands in the Gulf and Caribbean. There's nothing special or unusual about the number of storms to affect the Caymans I can find.
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.
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Quoting Torito:
Im not trying to start arguments or whatever else happens, but what IF there happens to be a closed low INSIDE of the storm itself? would that change everyone's opinions on this system?


and if it was the dominant low....then maybe, but there hasn't been one observed yet. Plus, that clock thing is still ticking downwards. The 48 hour thing on the NHC page is all it has left, 48 hours tops.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A weak TS the most

A weak ts is a ts nontheless we might get td 1 or ts Andrea in the next couple of hours will be interesting to watch.Let see who gets the crow the ones who are saying it will develop or the ones who say it will not. next couple of hours will be crucial.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
Quoting Torito:
Im not trying to start arguments or whatever else happens, but what IF there happens to be a closed low INSIDE of the storm itself? would that change everyone's opinions on this system?
If there is closed low, we still need winds to be strong enough. It should be strong enough for Tropical Depression according to Dr. Masters' post. I believe everybody opinions will be forced to change by NHC if they find closed low. I doubt it but I've been wrong before so we'll see.
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Quoting Torito:
Im not trying to start arguments or whatever else happens, but what IF there happens to be a closed low INSIDE of the storm itself? would that change everyone's opinions on this system?
It would be surprising(to me), but I think most people understand the value of in-situ data and would assimilate this into their view of the current status of the Blob-Thing...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Um... I'm pretty sure we got TS Andrea now according to "Trusted national media".

@jimwxgator 5h

ABC News Headline: "Tropical Storm Targets East Coast". What tropical storm? Who writes this stuff? Be careful in your choice of words.


SARCASM FLAG: ON


Um.. well

Trusted nat...... so much for that..
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64. 7544
looks like that big red ball wants to keep going east at this new models should be interesting soon as the hh sends the data
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Im not trying to start arguments or whatever else happens, but what IF there happens to be a closed low INSIDE of the storm itself? would that change everyone's opinions on this system?
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Quoting DataNerd:
Well were up to 60 now for a TD lets see what recon find.

quite right
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Um... I'm pretty sure we got TS Andrea now according to "Trusted national media".

@jimwxgator 5h

ABC News Headline: "Tropical Storm Targets East Coast". What tropical storm? Who writes this stuff? Be careful in your choice of words.


SARCASM FLAG: ON
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A weak TS the most



I think you hit the nail on the head with that prediction. :P
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Well were up to 60 now for a TD lets see what recon find.
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I believe the numbers is every 1.2 years or 1.02 I think for cayman
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A weak TS the most

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I agreed
(btw you do know that there is a reason why people which sometimes include me say it could go Cayman well its because alot if not most storms do come to Cayman and affect it and that is a statistical fact)
Please post the link of that "statistical fact". I would like to see it :)
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Never seen the NHC say "TORRENTIAL" rain before... xD
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
60% cherry.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Red Crayon :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 711
Quoting KeysieLife:
Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.


He changed his handle to Tyler something.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I agreed
(btw you do know that there is a reason why people which sometimes include me say it could go Cayman well its because alot if not most storms do come to Cayman and affect it and that is a statistical fact)


Wouldn't mind seeing THAT dataset!
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Like I said, I'm sticking to 50% of ever developing. NHC just brought out red crayons (60% or higher chance of 48 hours development if newbies don't understand).
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Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks



GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



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oh look it is 60% high

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Code Red!!!
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Reported this comment on accident.

Uh-oh. Now I'll probably get banned for something or another. :-)
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Quoting DataNerd:


Oh, so pump the ridge is a reference to low pressure imparted dynamics.

What a bizarre reference.

I think it is an old StormW-ism, if memory serves...


I believe that the idea of 'pumping the ridge' comes from the subsidence outside a powerful hurricane increasing the subsidence already present in a ridge feature and increasing the ridge's influence on the steering pattern.
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high 60% I'd say
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Quoting Torito:
Anyone else tend to spam F5 on the NOAA website when we are only minutes away from a new NHC update? I tend to do it alot...


At least you're honest...
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60% cherry.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting Waltanater:
Looks like we'll have Andrea!

Really? Where? Did I miss her passing by?
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Quoting KeysieLife:
Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.
He is now TylerStanfield.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting scottsvb:
I think the forum is doing okay. Most people think there is a 40-50% chance of this becoming Andrea. There are a couple that always state its going to the Caymans or it's going to be almost 70mph at landfall....we can ignore the wish-dreamcasters.. but the general public that does come in here and don't know who's correct or not need to understand, this place isn't a official source of information...you get that at the NHC and your local NWS.


I agreed
(btw you do know that there is a reason why people which sometimes include me say it could go Cayman well its because alot if not most storms do come to Cayman and affect it and that is a statistical fact)
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Quoting sar2401:
From the previous blog regarding the question about the TCFA
========================================
It's the Navy's Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert product. The current alert reads as follows:
WTNT21 KNGU 051500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 88.8W TO 26.5N 88.4W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SLOW INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 392 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA, FL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS APPARENT
TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A SHEAR LOBE OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL INHIBIT RAPID STRENGTHENING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED
BY 061500Z.//

There are apparently some here that thinks this somehow contradicts the NHC's thinking. It doesn't sound like the Navy is overly excited about 91L to me. Anyway, the TCFA can be found here. While it's interesting and usually accurate, it's also important to remember that none of it is official information.
Link to TCFA pages


Reported this comment on accident.
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Anyone else tend to spam F5 on the NOAA website when we are only minutes away from a new NHC update? I tend to do it alot...
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Quoting Dakster:
Ameister12: Have fun seeing Tornados... Stay safe. Apparently even the pros can get into trouble as of late.


Thanks! I'm not to nervous about safety, the last thing the chasers want is to get the tourist into danger.

Quoting Waltanater:
"I'd give it a 50%..." LOL...isn't that what it's at now officially!?

I don't see what's so funny about agreeing with the NHC. :P
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Anyone know what happened to HurricaneDean? I haven't seen him on in a while and I trust his insight...would like to know his thoughts on 91L.
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I'm still sticking to 50% chance of ever developing. I was at 35% two days ago and 40% last morning before updating to 50% when I came home from work. And no, I'm not copying NHC.
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From the previous blog regarding the question about the TCFA
========================================
It's the Navy's Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert product. The current alert reads as follows:
WTNT21 KNGU 051500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 88.8W TO 26.5N 88.4W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SLOW INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 392 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA, FL. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS APPARENT
TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A SHEAR LOBE OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL INHIBIT RAPID STRENGTHENING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED
BY 061500Z.//

There are apparently some here that thinks this somehow contradicts the NHC's thinking. It doesn't sound like the Navy is overly excited about 91L to me. Anyway, the TCFA can be found here. While it's interesting and usually accurate, it's also important to remember that none of it is official information.
Link to TCFA pages
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Quoting Thing342:
Hey, friends. 91L looks close to a TD. Watching the Day After Tomorrow with my Chemistry class. The science in this movie is laughably bad.


Still an entertaining movie.

But if you think the science in the movie is bad, you should see the book the movie is based on... Written by UFO conspiracy theorists who try to pass it off as real science.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Ten bucks says no closed low.
I'll be happy to take your money, just drop it off in my pay pal account, thanks!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.